Ma Ying-jeou and King Pu-tsung: The Last Hurrah

Ma Ying-jeou and King Pu-tsung: The Last Hurrah
United Daily News editorial (Taipei, Taiwan, Republic of China)
A Translation
February 12, 2014

Summary: Intentionally or unintentionally, King Pu-tsung has acquired an image as a "rescue expert." Ma Ying-jeou is regarded as the beneficiary of his rescue efforts. King Pu-tsung is regarded as Ma's rescuer. This is an honor for King, and an embarrassment for Ma. The public has concerns. King Pu-tsung is returning home and becoming part of the government. Perhaps he can help return the media spotlight to the president. King Pu-tsung has a shiny resume and a new title. But will this be enough to pull off a miracle during their last hurrah?

Full text below:

Intentionally or unintentionally, King Pu-tsung has acquired an image as a "rescue expert." Ma Ying-jeou is regarded as the beneficiary of his rescue efforts. King Pu-tsung is regarded as Ma's rescuer. This is an honor for King, and an embarrassment for Ma.

King Pu-tsung said he "would not join the cabinet, would not become part of the government." When Ma Ying-jeou became president, King's first position was KMT Secretary-General. He did not join the cabinet. He did not become part of the government. But he steered the government and the cabinet for one year and one month. As KMT Secretary-General, his appointment as ROC representative to the US was considered a lateral move. It was described as "outside the cabinet," He remained at his post for only five months. King Pu-tsung is now returning home to become part of the government, as Secretary General of the National Security Council.

When King Pu -tsung said he "would not join the cabinet, would not become part of the government " he probably meant it. But serving as KMT Secretary-General, ROC Representative to the US, and Secretary General of the National Security Council may have given him a taste for office. They may have rationalized his vow "not to join the cabinet, not to become part of the government." As a result, King Pu-tsung has filled out his resume rather nicely. But what now?

King Pu-tsung will become Secretary General of the NSC. A variety of explanations have be offered for this. Explanation 1. It is all for the sake of the election, right? King Pu-tsung has denied such speculation. He said, "2012 was my last election campaign." The KMT is not optimistic about the 2014 seven in one elections. In 2016 Ma Ying-jeou will not be running. Therefore King Pu-tsung's declaration that he will not take part in the campaign may be true. Explanation 2. It us all for the sake of the TPP and RCEP, right? As a political prospect, this could provide a "shot in the arm." But in an actual campaign, the clash of interests it would provoke might well outweigh several trade in services agreements. Explanation 3. Might it be for the sake of the Ma Xi meeting? This is unlikely, since the prospect of a Ma Xi meeting could evaporate before autumn.

In any case, King Pu-tsung will serve as Secretary General of the NSC. He probably wants to join President Ma in his "last hurrah." The first challenge is 2016. The KMT cannot afford to lose. Ma Ying-jeou will not be the 2016 presidential candidate. But if the KMT loses the 2016 presidential election, Ma's legacy will lose its base of support. King Pu-tsung might not direct the KMT's campaign during the seven in one elections and the 2016 general election. But Ma Ying-jeou has an unshirkable duty to ensure Kuomintang victories in both. Therefore King Pu-tsung must disavow any part in the seven in one elections and the 2016 general election. In fact of course, he remains joined to them at the hip.

Let us back up a moment. Suppose Ma fails to meet the first challenge? In other words, suppose the KMT loses the 2016 general election? The second challenge is to preserve Ma Ying-jeou's legacy. Above all, Ma must do two things. One. He must leave behind an irreversible policy framework pertaining to national identity and cross-strait relations. In fact, as long as the policy is correct, it will be irreversible. Therefore the Ma Xi meeting is the goal. Two. He must leave behind an irreversible policy framework for free trade and globalization. If Taiwan forsakes liberalization, politically and economically it will not survive, Therefore the TPP and RCEP are the goals. This is Ma's last-ditch battle. King Pu-tsung cannot remain on the sidelines.

From this perspective let us look at President Ma Ying-jeou's last hurrah. The seven in one elections are far from assured. Warning sirens have sounded on the 2016 general election. The TPP and RCEP face a bumpy road ahead. The Ma Xi meeting depends on others.

The expression "the affairs of the nation are relentless" is not widely used. But it has become an accurate description of today's reality. King Pu-tsung is returning home and becoming part of the government. His action highlights the government's dilemma. It magnifies Ma's helplessness. It exaggerates King Pu-tsung's personal worth and ability. Ma Ying-jeou's difficulties did not arise overnight. They cannot be reversed during the two years left in his term. Today's dilemma is the result of internal and external political and economic structural factors. There are no quick fixes. Today's plight is not necessarily the result of any major errors on the part of Ma Ying-jeou. Rather it is the result of the public's stereotyped and difficult to change impressions of him. Ma Ying-jeou and King Pu-tsung made ideal campaign partners. Today they face the 2016 general election. Ma Ying-jeou may not be the candidate, but he must not lose. This is a campaign that Ma and King have never before waged. This is a campaign that definitely cannot be won with a few King style campaign ads.

This is Ma Ying-jeou's last-ditch battle. If the perception is that only King Pu-tsung can save the day, that is not a positive message. The two men must overcome the first challenge. They must not allow themselves to be satirized as the "King Ma System." King must no longer serve as Ma's "avatar." As an aide, he must play a complementary role. He must not use Ma's authority to polish his own halo. Ma Ying-jeou finds himself in a crisis of authority. King must help Ma recoup his political support. He must change public indifference and antipathy toward President Ma into empathy and goodwill. Today's dilemma and chaos makes it impossible to attend to all the details. All one can do is make a dent in the larger framework. Therefore the concern of his last hurrah must be the TPP, RCEP, cross-strait policy and national identity.

The public has concerns. King Pu-tsung is returning home and becoming part of the government. Perhaps he can help return the media spotlight to the president. King Pu-tsung has a shiny resume and a new title. But will this be enough to pull off a miracle during their last hurrah?

馬英九和金溥聰的最後一哩
【聯合報╱社論】
2014.02.12 02:29 am

有心或無意，金溥聰擁有了「救駕勤王」的形象。馬英九被視為受援者，金溥聰被視為施救者。這是金的光彩，馬的尷尬。

金溥聰曾說：「不入閣，不入府」。馬英九當了總統後，金的第一個位子是國民黨秘書長，未入閣、未入府，卻是位駕府閣，幹了一年一個月；有了國民黨秘書長這個高度，出任駐美代表就被視為水平移動，可謂「境外入閣」，也只幹了一年五個月。現在，金溥聰要回國入府出任國安會秘書長了。

當金溥聰說「不入閣、不入府」時，也許真的是無意仕途；但後來這段由黨秘書長繞經駐美代表、終而出任國安會秘書長的過程，卻像是「沾醬油」，彷彿只是為了「不入閣、不入府」的承諾打個圓場。於是，金溥聰有了一張漂亮的履歷表。但是，然後呢？

金溥聰任國安會秘書長，出現種種說法。說法一，都是為了選舉吧？金溥聰否認此論，他說：「二○一二是我最後一次選舉操盤。」的確，國民黨在二○一四的七合一不看好，二○一六馬英九也不選了；因此，金溥聰說不搞選舉，形式上或許沒錯。說法二，是為了TPP與RCEP吧？但這個議題或可作為「打興奮劑」的政治願景，若是真槍實彈幹起來，其引爆的利害衝突，恐將大過好幾個《服貿協議》。說法三，是為了馬習會嗎？但馬習會在入秋前即可能化作泡影。

無論如何，金溥聰出任國安會秘書長，想必是要伴馬總統走完這「最後一哩」。第一層挑戰是二○一六不能輸：馬英九不是二○一六的總統候選人，但若國民黨輸掉二○一六，馬的歷史定位自亦失所依託。金溥聰可能不會為國民黨的七合一及二○一六的選戰實際「操盤」，但馬英九對國民黨在七合一及二○一六選舉的勝敗卻是責無旁貸；那麼，金溥聰也只能說七合一及二○一六的選舉在體制職務上與他無關，但其實卻是骨肉相連。

退一步言，倘若馬自第一層挑戰敗下，也就是國民黨如果輸掉了二○一六大選，第二層挑戰則是要保全馬英九的政治遺產。最重要者有二：一、留下無可翻轉的國家認同及兩岸政策架構（其實，只要政策正確，即無可翻轉），因此，馬習會是目標；二、留下無可翻轉的自由經貿體系全球化的走向（台灣捨自由化，在政治經濟上均無生路），因此，TPP與RCEP是目標。這是馬英九的最後一搏，金溥聰自不可能置身局外。

由此看馬英九總統的最後一哩：七合一岌岌不保，二○一六警笛已鳴，TPP、RCEP路途坎坷，馬習會則操之在人。

國事蜩螗是一句生僻成語，如今卻成為共見共知的現實寫照。金溥聰此時回國入府，不啻更凸顯了政局的困窘；這一方面放大了馬英九的無助，另一方面也不成比例地誇張了金溥聰的身價與能耐。馬英九今日困境不是一日造成，因此不易在這最後兩年翻轉；而今日困境主要是內外的政經結構因素使然，因此也不易以技術手段解決。甚至，今日困境亦未必是馬英九在執政上犯了什麼重大過錯，而是因為人民對馬英九眾口鑠金的刻板印象已難改變。馬英九與金溥聰是選戰的最佳夥伴，如今將面臨的二○一六大選，卻是馬英九非候選人但更加不能輸的選戰，這是馬金二人皆未打過的選戰，而這場選戰絕非憑幾部「金氏經典選舉廣告」就能致勝。

馬英九的最後一搏，如果被視為身邊只剩金溥聰或非金溥聰不可，這絕非正面的訊息。二人必須打破的第一個困境，就是不能被「金馬體制」的譏嘲纏住；金不能再作馬的「分身」，而必須發揮作為幕僚的「互補」角色。亦即，不可借馬的權力去磨亮「金小刀」，而是要為陷入權力危機的馬英九找回政治支持；也就是必須試將民間對馬總統的「無感」、「惡感」，轉變為「有感」、「好感」。再者，如今這個難局與亂局，已無可能照顧所有的細節，而只能設法在「大結構」上作出成績，因此，TPP、RCEP的憧憬，與兩岸政策及國家認同的定向，仍應是這最後一哩的主要關注。

國人的疑問是：金溥聰返國入府，或許有助於把總統府再次拉回到新聞視聽的焦點，但只憑在金溥聰的漂亮履歷表再加一個新頭銜，就能使這最後一哩出現什麼奇蹟嗎？