Lien Sheng-wen has already played his Trump Card. Now What?

Lien Sheng-wen has already played his Trump Card. Now What?
China Times editorial (Taipei, Taiwan, ROC)
A Translation
July 16, 2014

Summary: Election day is only four months away. Lien Sheng-wen must ensure that Taipei remains solidly in the blue camp. Time is running out. He must let people in Taipei to see his vision for the future as soon as possible, He must prove that he has the ability to be the "CEO of Taipei."

Full Text Below:

For two straight days, President Ma Ying-jeou has appeared at campaign rallies held by KMT candidate for Taipei Mayor Lien Sheng-wen. He has shown Lien how to wave a banner. He has even urged Lien to practice his campaign song. Taipei Mayor Hau Lung-bin also attended these rallies. The onstage scenario showed that the KMT is fully backing Lien Sheng-wen.

Lien Sheng-wen even wore the vest that he had on when he was shot, saying that he was "once again donning his battle dress." He wanted to remind people of the shooting incident that happened four years ago.

One could say the blue camp has done everything in its power to reverse Lien Sheng-wen's increasingly unpromising political fortunes. That includes healing the rift between him and Ting Shou-chung. That includes Eric Chu continuing his campaign for Mayor of New Taipei City. By now, Ma has helped the Lien campaign twice in two days. The KMT is eager to dispel outside rumors of a grudge between Ma and Lien. So far the blue camp has made every effort to ensure a united front. Observers have no reason to fuss over imaginary grudges or conflicts. But the rumors also serve as a reminder. Can Lien Sheng-wen hold down Taipei for the blue camp? That will depend on him and him alone.

Put bluntly, no election campaign can rely entirely on party unity to generate momentum. No election campaign can rely entirely on backing from high officials to ensure victory. These factors are merely icing on the cake. They are unlikely to determine who will win. Therefore when observers exaggerate the political impact of Ma, Hao, and Lien standing shoulder to shoulder on the same dais, the Lien camp has no reason to get excited. After all, this is only July. The official campaign has yet to kick off. Usually those who rely on political endorsements, especially from the president, wait until the final stages of the campaign. Only then do they take center stage. This is merely the warm-up phase. Yet the trump card whic should have been saved for last, has already been played. Doesn't this amount to an advance admission of panic?

In the final analysis, it is the same in any election. The voters will choose the most suitable candidate. Which candidate has the most solid party backing is not the deciding factor. Still less is public endorsements from political big shots. The larger a candidate's campaign committee, the more star-studded the candidate's rallies, the less the spotlight will be on the candidate himself, in which case all those efforts will be for naught.

Furthermore, do not imagine that getting shot by an assassin while endorsing another candidate, will jog voter memories. Such non-essential factors will have little impact on the campaign in Taipei.

Taiwan's democratization involved three key presidents: Lee Teng-hui, Chen Shui-bian, and Ma Ying-jeou. All three served as Mayor of Taipei. Chen Shui-bian and Ma Ying-jeou competed fiercely for the position. The Taipei mayorship is a key position. To term it a stepping stone to the presidency is not an exaggeration. Therefore Taipei voters have good reason to be pickier and less forgiving than voters in other districts. They have been through many high-profile election campaigns. How can anyone expect them to uncritically vote the party line? How can anyone expect them to cast their ballots on the basis of who stood on whose dais during an election rally? Such expectations are simplistic. Worse, they insult the electorate in Taipei.

The answer is actually quite simple: back to basics. Lien Sheng-wen would do well to contemplate the following. He wants to be the "CEO of the nation's capital." But what what kind of vision is he offering citizens of Taipei? What does he intend to offer the voters of the nation's capital over the next four years, perhaps even the next eight years? Is he offering them a "new Taipei"? Is he better suited than his opponent to govern Taipei? These questions may seem simple, but in fact they are not. These are questions that Lien Sheng-wen must consider on his own. He cannot rely on his campaign committee to ghostwrite his answers. Otherwise, the first press conference, the first debate, or the first campaign speech that comes along, will let the cat out of the bag. The voters are not blind. They will not vote for a candidate who merely reads what his aides wrote on his behalf. They are even less likely to vote for a candidate who is unfamiliar with the administrative districts of Taipei. They will vote for someone with convictions, and who can actually implement his policies.

Over the past few years, in keeping with globalization, Taipei has been promoted as a major world-class metropolis. Several mayors have worked hard to establish Taipei's brand and status. By any number of criteria, including tourism, housing, environmental protection, transportation, and medical care, Taipei ranks near the top. In recent years, many important international events and activities have been held in Taipei. Taipei has its own fascinating urban style. People in Taipei are well aware of this and proud of it. Naturally they want a mayor who is up to the task. Over the next few months, voters will be subjecting Lien Sheng-wen and Ko Wen-je to the same acid test.

Election day is only four months away. Lien Sheng-wen must ensure that Taipei remains solidly in the blue camp. Time is running out. He must let people in Taipei to see his vision for the future as soon as possible, He must prove that he has the ability to be the "CEO of Taipei."

社論－打完危機牌 連勝文還剩什麼牌？
2014年07月16日 04:10
本報訊

一連兩天，總統馬英九為國民黨台北市長參選人連勝文造勢場子站台輔選，不僅指導連揮舞戰旗，還建議連勤練競選歌曲。台北市長郝龍斌也到場造勢，這幅畫面誰都看得出來，國民黨要全力拉抬連勝文選情。

連勝文還穿上昔日槍擊案那天的選舉背心，訴求「再穿戰袍」，期盼藉由4年前的那場槍擊案喚起民眾心裡的記憶。

可以這麼說，為了挽救連勝文日益低迷的選情，藍營能做的大概都做了！包括與丁守中化解初選傷痕，抬出朱立倫續戰新北市，如今再加上馬2天內2度站台輔選，試圖破除外界所謂「連馬心結」的傳言。走到這一步，藍營已經竭盡所能營造團結氣勢了，外界確實不必再在什麼「心結」、「矛盾」上做文章，但這也預告一個現實，接下來連勝文能不能為藍營守住北市，得要靠他自己了！

講得再直白一些，沒有一場選舉，是可以單單靠營造團結氣勢，或是高層人士密集站台就可以當選的，這些因素最多只有錦上添花的效果，不可能成為勝選的關鍵因素。所以，當外界放大「馬郝連同台」的政治效應時，坦白說，連勝文陣營還真是沒啥好興奮的，畢竟現在才7月，距離正式的競選期間都還有不算短的時日，一般玩這種政治Ａ咖同台造勢的戲碼，特別是打「總統牌」，多半要等到選戰最後階段，才會陸續登場。如今等於還是在熱身起跑階段，就將這些本該是壓軸的戲碼全都搬演了，不等於是在提前告急嗎？

說到底還是那句話，任何選舉都一樣，選民選的是最適合的候選人，不是選誰的競選團隊最團結，更不是選哪個大咖會出面站台，如果競選團隊規模龐大，造勢場合眾星雲集，反倒是候選人本身不突出，那一切的努力最終都將會是徒勞的。

更別迷信當初助選站台挨過那一槍，可以有效喚起選民的記憶，這些非關選戰基本面的因素，對台北市的選戰而言，恐怕是特別不適用。

要知道，台灣民主化進程中的3位重要總統，從李登輝、陳水扁到馬英九，前後都擔任過台北市長，陳水扁與馬英九更是在激烈的競爭下出線，說台北市長的大位，是晉升國家元首的重要台階並不為過。因而台北市的選民，本來就有理由比其他縣市的選民更挑剔、甚至更嚴苛。而經歷過那麼多回合高檔的選戰後，試問今天憑什麼回過頭來要求選民依基本盤投票？甚至是依「誰在造勢台上挺他」投票？那不僅是簡化了這場選戰，也等於是羞辱了台北市的選民。

所以，答案其實很簡單，就是回歸到基本面。連勝文不妨重頭再思考如下的課題，要擔任首都的CEO，請問你究竟要給台北市民怎樣的願景？要提供給所有首都選民，在未來的4年，甚至未來8年一個怎樣的「新台北」？你要如何證明你比你的對手更適合來治理大台北？這些問題看似簡單，其實一點都不好回答，因為這些問題需要連勝文自己去思考，自己去應對，而不是依賴他的競選團隊去代筆，否則一次記者會的詢答，一次辯論會的交鋒，甚至一次造勢場的演講，都會徹底的洩底，選民的眼光永遠是雪亮的，他們不會挑一個只會照著幕僚代擬稿子念的候選人，更不會挑一個對台北各行政區還搞不清楚的人當市長，而是要挑一個有自己理念，並且會確實落實的候選人。

這幾年，隨著全球化的進程，台北早就晉級為國際級的重要大都會之一。而在幾位市長的辛勤經營下，台北已經建立其無可取代的品牌地位，在各種包括觀光、居住、環保、交通、醫療…的國際評比上，幾乎都名列前茅。近幾年更有許多重要的國際策展與活動，都選擇在台北舉辦，台北早就形成一種很特殊而迷人的城市風格，這一點，台北人心知肚明，也一直為此感到驕傲，他們當然更有理由去挑一個可以匹配這種品牌的市長。這一點，對連勝文適用，對柯文哲也同樣適用。未來幾個月，這種考驗將會更嚴苛！

距離投票只有4個多月，連勝文把台北市選情打回了藍營基本盤優勢地位，時間已非常緊迫，他必須盡快讓台北市民對未來有遠景，證明自己有能力做好台北市CEO。