The KMT Needs A Grand Campaign Strategy

The KMT Needs A Grand Campaign Strategy
China Times editorial (Taipei, Taiwan, ROC)
A Translation
July 11, 2014

Summary: The KMT has long enjoyed an advantage in northern Taiwan. It has long assumed that its status was secure and no effort was needed. But now the situation has changed. The KMT is no longer secure. If it cannot offer its own policy vision, the hemmoraging will continue, and it will meet with eventual defeat. The KMT must now summon up the courage to offer a grand policy and propose a grand strategy. This is the only chance the Kuomintang has of winning in the face of certain defeat.

Full Text Below:

The year end election campaign presents the KMT with its most serious electoral crisis since its founding. Traditionally solid constituencies such as Keelung and Taipei are now at risk. The impact could even spread outward, like waves in a pond, and endanger neighboring New Taipei and Taoyuan. Take the 2008 and 2012 presidential elections. The 2008 election involved smooth sailing. Ma Ying-jeou played his "Taiwan moves forward" card. He promised to end corruption and ensure cross-Strait peace. This led to a major victory. During the 2012 election Ma Ying-jeou's poll numbers fell. He campaigned on a lower keyed "Go Taiwan!" theme. He called for calm. By contrast, the DPP left many people uneasy about its ability to handle cross-Strait affairs. Eventually Ma won by a cliff-hanging 6.89 million votes.

But the KMT has not indicated any campaign theme or grand strategy for the year end county chiefs and city mayors election. Instead, it is mired in scandal. Central Taiwan is in danger. Even sorse, the danger is spreading to traditionally solid northern Taiwan.

Why has the situation gotten so far out of hand? For many reasons. The KMT lacks a clear strategy in its current campaign. Without a clear strategy, one cannot formulate clear tactics. What's worse, the candidates themselves are not up to the challenge.

Take Keelung for example. The Huang Ching-tai scandal has jeopardized the KMT's election prospects. Hau Lung-bin and Eric Chu have persuaded the KMT to revoke Huang Ching-tai's candidacy. But this has not reversed the party's fortunes in Keelung. To reverse an almost certain outcome, the KMT must totally rethink its election strategy.

First of all, the KMT must be willing to suffer a glorious defeat. Only then will it have a chance to enjoy a glorious victory. The Keelung situation requires more than a candidate change. It requires humility and a willingness to listen to the people of Keelung. It requires identifying what the people want done the most, and making that the heart of one's campaign strategy. It requires a fundamental change in attitude. To use KANO's classic line, the KMT should not think about how to make sure that the KMT wins. The KMT should think about how to make sure that Keelung does not lose.

Many people have been talking about a Keelung Taipei merger, or a Keelung New Taipei merger. They hope to rise above personalities in order to address the issues. Addressing the merger could lift the municipal elections above the level of personalities and muckraking, and instead direct it at public policy. The people of Keelung are apparently concerned about such issues. Such issues should be addressed comprehensively and debated appropriately, and could even include the strategic development of Taipei, New Taipei, Keelung and even Taoyuan.

Consider the matter from the Keelung perspective. Blue and green polls alike show that people in Keelung strongly support a Taipei Keelung merger. In October 2012, KMT Legislator Chiu Wen-yen and others announced their own poll results. Up to 82% of Keelung residents favor a merger with Taipei or New Taipei. In March last year, DPP candidate for Keelung Mayor Lin You-chang released his own poll results. Up to 47.1% of Keelung residents favor a merger with Taipei. Only 16.1% favored the status quo. Only 15.9% favored a merger with New Taipei. Only 2.1% favored a merger with both Taipei and New Taipei. Clearly Keelung residents strongly favor a merger. What is missing is the determination. Demonstrating this determination is the key to reversing public sentiment in Keelung.

Consider the matter from the Taipei or New Taipei perspective. People in Taipei and New Taipei are apparently indifferent to the Taipei Keelung merger. The issue apparently lacks appeal. But this not necessarily the case. Lien Sheng-wen proposed a "City Dream" and a "Taipei Harbor." He envisioned the transformation of the inland city of Taipei into a harbor within 10 years. This elevated his status as a candidate. It suggested a capacity for strategic thinking. This was especially true given Ko Wen-je's response to the proposed merger of Taipei and Keelung. Ko said "The bastard!" Essentially Lien's proposal nullified Ko's plans for a Taipei Keelung merger after he was elected mayor. Lien Sheng-wen has been relentless harassed by the Ko camp. The merger would elevate the race to a higher level. It would become more than a battle of personalities. It would become a battle over public policy. It would enable the KMT to present a unified front in the strategic battle against Ko Wen-je.

Consider the matter from Eric Chu's perspective. People in Keelung want a merger with Taipei rather than one with New Taipei. But Eric Chu also proposed a Keelung New Taipei merger, based on geographical considerations. The two cities are contiguous. He was open to the wishes of people in Keelung. He humbly explained that "We must respect the wishes of Keelung. Once the merger proposal is complete, New Taipei will strive to contribute."

Issues such as a rebirth for Keelung harbor and for Taoyuan Airport can become part of a larger vision. They can show the public that the KMT has both ambition and vision. Of course public policies never involve only upsides with no downsides. The Taipei Keelung merger has its shortcomings. Should it become the Kuomintang's grand strategy for northern Taiwan? The KMT must make a careful determination. The KMT does not need not to make the Taipei Keelung merger its grand strategy. But the KMT has to have a grand strategy.

The KMT has long enjoyed an advantage in northern Taiwan. It has long assumed that its status was secure and no effort was needed. But now the situation has changed. The KMT is no longer secure. If it cannot offer its own policy vision, the hemmoraging will continue, and it will meet with eventual defeat. The KMT must now summon up the courage to offer a grand policy and propose a grand strategy. This is the only chance the Kuomintang has of winning in the face of certain defeat.

社論－國民黨需要選戰大戰略
2014年07月11日 04:10
本報訊

年底選戰，國民黨面臨創黨以來最大的選舉危機。不但傳統鐵板優勢選區基隆、台北陷苦戰，還可能產生溢波效應，危及鄰近的新北與桃園。以2008年與2012年的總統大選為例，2008年是順勢選舉，馬英九打出「台灣向前行」的選戰主軸，以終結貪腐、和平兩岸為核心主調，獲得大勝。2012年馬英九處於民調低迷的逆勢選舉，也打出調性較柔的「台灣加油讚」，訴求安心，相襯民進黨在兩岸事務處理能力帶給人民的不安心，終以過半的689萬票，驚險過關。

然而，年底縣市長大選，卻完全看不到國民黨大方向、大戰略的選舉軸心理念，只能看著弊案野火燎原，中台灣陷入危困不說，更漸漸地快把國民黨北台灣的鐵板選區燒為焦泥。

情況為何失控至此？總結原因，就是國民黨在這次選戰中缺乏明晰的大戰略。沒有戰略，就不可能有正確的戰術，更別說，個別候選人的戰技還不太如人。

以基隆為例，黃景泰涉弊讓國民黨基隆選情陷危，國民黨在郝龍斌、朱立倫的呼籲下廢止黃景泰的提名，這不足以扭轉基隆危局。要翻轉這幾近必敗之局，國民黨必須徹底扭轉戰略思維。

首先，國民黨要有光榮戰敗的決心，才有光榮戰勝的希望。基隆困局中，該做的不只是換人，更要謙卑傾聽基隆人心聲，找出基隆人最想要的事，做為選戰的戰略訴求，在心態上根本改變。引用KANO的經典台詞，在基隆，國民黨不要想著贏，要真心思考，如何讓基隆「不能輸」。

而近來被討論甚多的基隆台北合併或基隆新北合併，不失跳出「人」的泥淖，把選戰帶進「事」的高度的一種戰略可能性。而這也有助於讓目前始終停留在「人格扒糞戰」的縣市長選舉，導向公共政策討論的建設面。這樣的公共政策議題，看起來是基隆人關心的議題，但如果構思周延、論述得當，也不失為串連北北基甚至桃園的大戰略發展議題。

從基隆角度言，藍綠民調都顯示，北基合併獲得基隆人極高支持。2012年10月，國民黨立委邱文彥等人發布民調，8成2的基隆人支持基隆與台北或新北合併；去年3月民進黨基隆市長被提名人林右昌也發布民進黨民調，47.1%基隆人最希望跟台北市合併，其次盼維持現狀的16.1%，希望併入新北市的15.9%，贊成北北基合併的2.1%。可見，合併在基隆存在高度共識，缺的是推動的決心。而這個決心的展現，也正是扭轉基隆民心的關鍵。

從台北或新北的角度來看。北基合併議題，看起來台北人或新北市人的關心度不高，似乎不是吸引人的議題。其實未必，如果連勝文可以從「城市造夢」、「台北造港」的角度提出來，為內陸的台北城規畫10年的海洋願景，仍不失為拉高候選人格局高度的戰略思維。特別是在柯文哲對北基合併，以「混蛋說」回應，等於封殺他當選市長後思考北基合併的想像空間，一直苦於被柯陣營在人格戰上糾纏的連陣營，這也將成為超越人格戰的一個「公共政策區隔點」，拉一條政策戰線，在戰略面與柯文哲對決。

從朱立倫的立場看，基隆人雖然比較希望和台北而非新北合併，朱立倫也可以從地理毗連的整合性提出基隆新北合併的論述，用開闊胸襟看待基隆人的期待。至少謙卑的說：「這要尊重基隆的意願，一旦基隆市完成合併提案，新北一定會努力促成。」

這樣的議題，甚至還可以從基隆海港的重生，把桃園空港的躍升議題連動帶進來，形塑一個有宏觀願景的大計畫，讓民眾看到國民黨的建設企圖與建設藍本。當然，公共政策的提出沒有全利全弊，北基合併也有缺點，適不適合做為國民黨在北北基的大戰略訴求，國民黨還要周延思考。這個大戰略可以不是「北基合併」議題，卻不能沒有這樣的大戰略。

過去，國民黨在北台灣優勢太強，迷信「持盈保泰」的無為策略。現在情勢丕變，國民黨已無盈可持、無泰可保。拿不出政策區隔，坐視失血繼續，就是坐等失敗發生。拿出大魄力、端出大政策、提出大戰略，是國民黨在敗局中，唯一的勝機。