Mainland and Japan Grapple: Koreas Benefit, Taiwan Marginalized

Mainland and Japan Grapple: Koreas Benefit, Taiwan Marginalized
United Daily News editorial (Taipei, Taiwan, ROC)
A Translation
July 7, 2014

Summary: The Korean Peninsula has been quiet for quite some time. Recently however, it has suddenly become the object of Mainland Chinese and Japanese attention. In the past, Japan warmed to South Korea to oppose North Korea. Mainland China warmed to North Korea to oppose South Korea. Both offered concessions. This enabled the two Koreas benefit from the Sino-Japanese conflict. It also impacted the East Asian political situation, and marginalized Taiwan.

Full Text below: 

The Korean Peninsula has been quiet for quite some time. Recently however, it has suddenly become the object of Mainland Chinese and Japanese attention. In the past, Japan warmed to South Korea to oppose North Korea. Mainland China warmed to North Korea to oppose South Korea. Both offered concessions. This enabled the two Koreas benefit from the Sino-Japanese conflict. It also impacted the East Asian political situation, and marginalized Taiwan.

Now however, Beijing is attempting to undermine the United States-South Korea military containment strategy. Beijing broke with its customary practice of making diplomatic visits to North Korea first, and South Korea second. Mainland President Xi Jinping led a 300 person delegation to South Korea. Most delegation members were economic and trade officials and entrepreneurs. As we can see, the purpose of the trip was economic rather than political.

During the Beijing-Seoul leaders summit Xi Jinping gave Seoul a generous present. He intends to sign the PRC-ROK FTA by the end of the year. He will use economic concessions to win over South Korea. This move allows South Korea to conclude FTAs with the United States, the EU, and Mainland China. South Korean President Park Geun-hye noted also that the "China Dream" and the "Korean Dream" are the same. Both dreams are aimed squarely at the Japanese.

Japan and South Korea have long-standing historical grievances and intractable territorial disputes. Despite careful mediation by the United States, Abe is still awaiting a response from Park Geun-hye. Japan therefore, has changed course. It has made overtures to North Korea. It has announced that Japan will relax economic sanctions against North Korea. This move was an attempt to weaken Beijing's influence over North Korea. In order to counter the "Xi Park meeting," North Korea has agreed to re-establish the "Japanese Hostage Special Investigation Committee." It has decided to extend Japan an olive branch.

When Japan lifts economic sanctions against North Korea, it will also relax restrictions on "Association of Korean Residents in Japan" officials traveling between Korea and Japan. It will open a pipeline for bilateral political dialogue. Japan has also decided to relax restrictions. Millions of Koreans in Japan can now visit North Korea with cash or money transfers. North Korea has long been the target of international economic sanctions. It has a shortage foreign currency. This influx of capital will have a considerable impact. No wonder Kim Jong-un sees this as his biggest diplomatic breakthrough. This "heart to heart" exchange between Japan and North Korea is of course aimed squarely at the Chinese mainland.

In short, recent Beijing-Tokyo political wrangling over foreign policy was all about economic concessions for North and South Korea. South Korea's "best of both worlds" principle has opened up a gap in the U.S.'s "Asian rebalancing" policy. South Korea has seized the opportunity to get close to Mainland China. It has also accrued considerable economic benefits for itself. Progress on the STA, MTA, and other economic agreements remains stalled in the Legislative Yuan. Meanwhile, the Beijing-Seoul FTA leaps ahead, and cross-Strait economic development falls further and further behind.

Consider the United States' "Asian rebalancing" policy. The United States once signed military cooperation agreements with individual countries in order exert its influence in East Asia. The US-Japan, US-South Korea, and US-Philippines agreements were its three military pillars. But recently, in response to the rise of Mainland Chinese military power, the U.S. has turned toward strengthening horizontal cooperation among its three East Asian allies. The U.S. and South Korea, the US and Japan, and the US and the Philippines were once three points. These three points now define a plane. This is why Japan recent sold arms to the Philippines, and strengthened its partnership with the Philippine military.

The United States, Japan, Korea, and the Philippines are four allies. Currently the main problem is between Japan and South Korea. Japan and South Korea have historical grievances and territorial disputes. They find it difficult to cooperate. Soon after Park Geun-hye took office, he adopted a tough policy toward Japan. Japanese-Korean relations became strained. This left a major strategic gap in the U.S.'s return to Asia. It allowed Beijing to breakthrough and win over South Korea.

Secondly, cross-Strait economic relations have undergone a qualitative change. Since 2008, cross-Strait economic agreements have progressed much faster than FTAs between the Mainland and other countries. For example, the Mainland hoped that the STA and MTA could be signed by the end of the year, and the Mainland China-South Korea FTA signed next year. This would protect Taiwan businesses' competitive advantage in the Mainland market.

But lo and behold, the STA remains stalled in the legislature. MTA negotiations have been shelved. The Mainland's grand strategy to win over South Korea has accelerated FTA negotiations with South Korea. South Korean industry and our industry have a 60% overlap. If Mainland China and South Korea sign an agreement by the end of the year, Taiwan businesses on the Mainland will lose their competitive advantage.

Japan recently lifted its ban on collective self-defense, increasing Sino-Japanese tensions. The DPP assumed Japan would "protect" Taiwan, and secretly rubbed its hands in glee. But as everyone knows, the green camp has stalled the STA in the Legislative Yuan. Amidst the Sino-Japanese diplomatic tussle, Taiwan's economy has already been marginalized.

We would like to ask DPP leaders a question. Is this really cause for celebration, or is it cause for concern?

中日角力，兩韓得利，台灣邊緣化
【聯合報╱社論】
2014.07.07 02:09 am

沉寂已久的朝鮮半島，最近突然變得重要起來，成為中日兩國爭相拉攏的對象。與過去不同的是，日本的拉攏對象從南韓轉向北韓，中國大陸則從北韓轉為南韓，雙方皆祭出「讓利」手段。此舉，讓兩韓成為中日衝突下的受益者，也牽動東亞政治板塊的變化，台灣卻遭邊緣化了。

這次，在突破美日韓軍事圍堵策略的政治考量下，北京打破過去「先北韓、後南韓」的外交出訪慣例，由中共國家主席習近平率領三百人的龐大訪問團訪問南韓。訪問團多半由經貿主管官員和大企業家組成，由此可知，此行的目的是經濟拉攏遠高於政治結盟。

在中韓領袖高峰會議上，習近平主動送上年底前將完成簽署《中韓自由貿易協定》的大禮，以經濟讓利來拉攏南韓。此舉，讓南韓完成了與美國、歐盟及中國大陸三大自由貿易協定的經濟拼圖。韓國總統朴槿惠也隨即表態，稱「中國夢」與「韓國夢」是相通的，因為兩國的夢都是針對日本。

從過去以來，日韓兩國受限於歷史問題及領土爭議而難以交心，雖經美國精心調解，安倍仍苦等不到朴槿惠的善意回應。也因此，日本便改弦易轍，主動轉向北韓示好，宣布日本將單獨放寬對北韓的經濟制裁；此舉，無非是想削弱中共對北韓的影響力。北韓方面，為了抵制「習朴會」，也同意將重新成立「日本人質綁架特別調查委員會」，對日本伸出了橄欖枝。

日本對北韓解除經濟制裁之後，不僅放寬「在日朝鮮人總聯合會」官員往返日、朝的禁令，開啟兩國政治對話的管道。同時，對於上百萬在日本的朝鮮人前往北韓攜帶現金及匯款，日本也決定放寬限制。這對於長期受國際經濟制裁而外匯短缺的北韓而言，具有相當大的資金挹注作用；也難怪，金正恩將此舉視為他就任後最大的外交突破。日本與北韓這番「交心」，主要目標當然是針對中國大陸而來。

簡言之，中日近期升高的政治角力，表現在外交政策上，是兩國分別向南北韓採取經濟讓利的交好政策。其中，南韓的「左右逢源」原則，則不啻讓美國的「亞洲再平衡」政策出現了一個缺口。不僅如此，南韓抓住機會靠向中國大陸，也為自己取得可觀的經濟利益；這在兩岸服貿、貨貿等經濟協議進度被卡在立法院之際，中韓自由貿易協議的進度超前，讓兩岸經濟發展愈發顯得不利。

先談美國的「亞洲再平衡」政策。過去美國在亞洲，是以和個別國家簽署軍事合作協議的方式來發揮它在東亞的影響力，「美日」、「美韓」與「美菲」是它的三大軍事支柱。但近期，因應大陸軍事力量的崛起，美國的東亞政策轉為要強化三大同盟國之間的橫向合作，把過去的美韓、美日、美菲的三個「點」，擴大成美日韓菲的「面」。最近日本對菲軍售，並強化與菲律賓之間的軍事合作關係，原因在此。

在「美日韓菲」四個同盟國的組合中，目前主要問題出在日韓關係。日韓兩國由於歷史問題及領土爭議的關係，遲遲無法進行合作；而朴槿惠上台後對日又採取強硬政策，讓日韓關係更趨緊張。這點，已成為美國重返亞洲戰略上的一大缺口，也讓北京找到拉攏南韓的突破點。

其次，觀察兩岸經濟關係的「質變」。自二○○八年以來，兩岸經濟協議的進度一直遠快於中國大陸與他國簽署自貿協定的腳步。例如，大陸原希望兩岸服貿、貨貿協議能在年底完成簽署，《中韓自由貿易協定》談判則是規劃在明年完成談判，這是為保障台灣企業進入大陸市場的競爭優勢。

孰料，兩岸服貿協議如今卡在立法院，貨貿協議談判隨之擱置。而今，大陸在拉攏南韓的大戰略下，選擇加速與南韓進行自貿協定談判；而南韓產業與我國產業的重疊性高達六成，中韓協議若真在年底完成，將使我國企業在中國市場喪失競爭優勢。

日本日前通過解禁集體自衛權，引發中日關係緊張，民進黨還以為日本此後能夠「保護」台灣，而暗自竊喜。殊不知，綠營在立法院卡住的服貿協議，在這場中日外交角力戰的催化下，已把台灣經濟推向「邊緣化」的危機。

我們想反問民進黨諸公：對此是喜？還是憂？