Four US Defense Secretaries Send a Message

Four US Defense Secretaries Send a Message
China Times News Editorial (Taipei, Taiwan, ROC)
A Translation
January 14, 2016

Executive Summary: Four days before the Republic of China presidential and legislative elections, the National Committee on US-China Relations invited four former US defense secretaries to a symposium in Washington. The chief topic was potential changes in the cross-Strait situation following the election. The event was unprecedented and noteworthy. The symposium, which featured four former US defense secretaries, revealed Washington's anxieties over changes in the Taiwan Strait. It also showed that the newly-elected government must be clear about the international situation. It must dampen any post-election euphoria. It must establish channels for communication with Beijing, and a basis for political negotiations.

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Four days before the Republic of China presidential and legislative elections, the National Committee on US-China Relations invited four former US defense secretaries to a symposium in Washington. The chief topic was potential changes in the cross-Strait situation following the election. The event was unprecedented and noteworthy. The symposium, which featured four former US defense secretaries, revealed Washington's anxieties over changes in the Taiwan Strait. It also showed that the newly-elected government must be clear about the international situation. It must dampen any post-election euphoria. It must establish channels for communication with Beijing, and a basis for political negotiations.

The National Committee on US-China Relations invited former defense secretaries, including Harold Brown, William Perry, William S. Cohen, and Chuck Hagel to participate in the round table discussion. Hagel stepped down only recently, and remains influential in US politics. The symposium sent four important signals. One. Washington is concerned about the cross-Strait situation. It convened this symposium with four former defense secretaries just before the presidential election on Taiwan. The key topic was US-China relations. But peripheral issues were also addressed. The Taiwan issue was particularly prominent. It was seen as even more important than the North Korean issue, and the South China Sea and East China Sea issues. Security was the most important aspect of the Taiwan issue. Just how will Beijing respond to a DPP return to power? The green camp characterized the symposium as a ploy by the KMT to influence the outcome of the election. This allegation is not merely false, it is also dangerous.

Two. Washington is concerned about Tsai Ing-wen's cross-Strait policy. Hagel hope that the new government would not relinquish the progress made toward common goals and appropriate consultations. These are beneficial not just to the two sides, but to the entire region. He hoped the new government would not put Washington in a difficult situation, such that it is forced to make a decision about whether to support Taiwan. Washington does not want the dispute over the 1992 Consensus to upset stable cross-Strait relations, and provoke confrontation leading to open conflict.

Three. Washington hopes the new government on Taiwan will face up to the changes in the cross-Strait situation.  Perry said the US and the Soviet Union used Mutual Assured Destruction as a deterrent during the Cold War. Today, the two sides of the Strait are using “economic Mutual Assured Destruction" as a deterrent. In the event of conflict, economic losses would be inestimable. This is a more powerful deterrent than US aircraft carriers to the Taiwan Strait. Washington was clearly reminding new and militant Taiwan independence organizations that they must admit that the situation in the Taiwan Strait is not what it used to be. Washington hopes the new government will avoid confrontation.

Four. Washington hopes that Beijing will exercise restraint regarding changes on Taiwan. Cohen reiterated Washington's basic policy toward Taiwan. He told both Taipei and Beijing that the US wants to ensure cross-strait communications, and avoid the use of force. Brown noted that US arms sales amount to a message to Beijing. Beijing should not expect the United States to remain passive in the event Beijing attacks Taiwan. Washington is concerned about recent People's Liberation Army military exercises on the Mainland, and hopes Beijing will exercise restraint.

Washington's concern is not unfounded. Globalization and nationalism have provoked conflict the world over. All it takes to ignite spilled gasoline is a spark. Tribal hatreds in Afghanistan, Iraq, and Syria have led to civil war in the Middle East. Unresolved crises in Ukraine, Saudi Arabia, and Iran, have widened conflict. Europe is torn over the refugee issue, which has provoked right wing nationalist reaction. Hungary and Poland are ruled by openly nationalist parties. In Asia, Mainland China, Japan, and India, are all holding high the banner of national revival. A recent Mainland poll showed that over 50% of the public on the Mainland believes China and Japan will fight another war. Another poll showed that over 90% of the public in Japan view China in a negative light. Even in the United States, the nationalist faction of the Republican Party has the upper hand.

In particular, Beijing continues South China Sea land reclamation. Washington insists on “defending freedom of navigation”. Pentagon hardliners are now ascendant. More members of the public want the United States to confront China. They think withdrawing from Asia means disaster. This has resulted in the reassignment of several national security chiefs, and reveals Washington's suspicions about Beijing's intentions. Washington has asked Beijing to exercise restraint, apparently due to strong internal pressure. If Beijing overreacts to changes on Taiwan by adopting a hardline stance, it could provoke a backlash in the US and Japan. During his most recent State of the Union address, President Obama said that reviving the US economy is this generation's mission. The economic outlook for the Mainland is grim. The international situation and economic stagnation have prevented the US from limiting confrontation and increasing cooperation. The Taiwan issue could result in a conflagration.

Anti-terrorism, anti-greenhouse effect, and global economic stagnation, another financial crisis, the spread of regional conflicts, and other thorny issues, require cooperation rather than confrontation, regional integration rather than protectionism. Washington-Beijing management of differences and promotion of cooperation are the key to their strategic relationship. The new government on Taiwan must realize that Washington does not want cross-Strait relations to spin out of control. It must swiftly rein in green camp hotheads, in both words and deeds. It must prevent a repeat of intense Chen Shui-bian era conflict between Taiwan nativism and Chinese nationalism.

The DPP, which is likely to return to power, must establish communications channels with officials in Beijing. Before the new government assumes office, Washington, Beijing, and Taipei should communicate with each other, in order to ensure cross-Strait stability. In particular, they must avoid nationalism based confrontation.

社論－四位美國防部長透露的訊息
2016年01月14日 04:10 主筆室

美中關係全國委員會在台灣總統暨立委選舉投票前4天的敏感時刻，前所未有地邀請4位美國卸任國防部長在華府舉行座談，對探討台灣大選後兩岸情勢的變化，具有指標性參考價值。美方以4防長座談會的定性透露了華府對台海情勢可能變化的擔心，更透露台灣新政府必須清楚認知當前的國際情勢，要約制勝選的激情，積極建立和北京的溝通管道與協商的政治基礎。

美中關係全國委員會邀請包括布朗、柯恩、海格爾和培利等4位卸任防長座談，其中海格爾卸任不久，對美國政壇仍具影響力。這項座談傳達了以下重大訊息：一、對兩岸情勢的高度憂慮：美方在台灣大選投票前安排4位防長座談，雖然議題以美中關係為核心，但在觸及的周邊議題中，台海問題格外突出，甚至超越北韓、南海與東海問題，台灣問題中最突出的是安全議題，是華府對北京如何因應民進黨可能重返執政的憂慮。泛綠營批判座談會是國民黨策動、企圖影響選情，這種說法不但錯誤而且危險。

二、對蔡英文兩岸政策不放心：海格爾在會中坦言希望選後台灣的新政府不要放掉一些能達成正確目標和適當協議的良好進展，這對兩岸和整個區域都好，也不會讓美國陷入是否支持對台義務的困難決定的處境。這說明了華府不希望因「九二共識」的爭端，使兩岸關係從穩定轉向對抗、從對抗上升成熱衝突的對撞。

三、希望台灣新政府正視兩岸情勢的變化：培里表示美蘇在冷戰時代以核武「相互保證毀滅」做為嚇阻，今天台海兩岸已走到以經濟「相互保證毀滅」做為嚇阻，一旦發生衝突，經濟損失難以估計，這是比派遣航母到台海還巨大的嚇阻能力。華府顯然在提醒近來台灣內部若干上升的獨派激進言論和組織，必須正視台海情勢的今非昔比，希望新政府應避免升高對抗。

四、希望北京對台灣的變局採取克制的態度：柯恩在會中重述美國對台政策的基本立場，向台北和北京再次說明美方希望確保兩岸溝通，避免動武。布朗則指出美國對台軍售是向中方釋出訊息，北京不能期望美國會被動行事而動武進犯台灣。兩人談話背後，代表華府關切中國解放軍近日來在對岸的密集軍演，希望北京克制。

華府的擔憂有其依據。近來，和全球化相伴生的民族主義衝突，正在全球各地如油潑地、星火即焚。不僅阿富汗、伊拉克、敘利亞中東情勢因部族仇恨激化陷入內戰，烏克蘭危機未解、沙國和伊朗衝突又擴大。歐洲也因難民收容爭議，引爆各國右翼民族主義的抗爭，匈牙利和波蘭都由民族主義立場鮮明的政黨掌政，在亞洲，中國、日本和印度也都打著民族復興的大旗，在中國最近的一份民調顯示，超過50%的中國人認為中日將有一戰。但另一份民調則顯示90%以上的日本人對中國抱有負面的想法；甚至在美國，共和黨中的民族主義派別目前也處於上風。

尤其北京持續在南海島嶼填島造陸，而華府堅持自由航行的磨擦升高，激起了五角大廈強硬派的抬頭，越來越多輿論要求美國要正面對抗中國、撤出亞洲等於災難；導致若干知中派高階國安主管的異動，代表華府對北京真實意圖的猜疑與不安。華府要求北京克制，顯然有內部強大的壓力。如果北京過度在應對台灣變局上，採取強硬作為，可能激化美、日的反中聲浪。雖然歐巴馬總統任內最後一次國情諮文強調重振美國經濟是這一代人的任務；中國經濟情勢同樣也不樂觀，國際情勢和經濟發展的需求，都制約了美中必須管控對抗、走向合作，但也可能因台灣問題而擦槍走火。

當前不論是反恐、反溫室效應和全球經濟停滯、金融泡沫危機重現、區域衝突擴大且升溫等棘手的問題，各國首應積極倡導合作而非對抗，應尋求區域融合而非新的保護主義藩籬。美中控管分歧、推進合作仍然是兩國最大的國家戰略軸心，台灣新政府必須清楚認知到華府絕對不希望兩岸關係出現無法控管的衝突，必須立即著手約制泛綠陣營中「死磕派」的言行，避免重演陳水扁執政時期的「扁式衝突」，造成以「台灣本土」與「中國民族主義」的激烈對抗。

被看好即將重返執政的民進黨必須努力尋求建立和北京最高當局的溝通管道，在新政府未上台前，華府、北京和台北應透過三組雙邊緊密的溝通，維護兩岸情勢的穩定，尤其必須避免訴諸民族情緒式的對抗。