Pyongyang: Diversion or Detriment?

Pyongyang: Diversion or Detriment?
United Daily News editorial (Taipei, Taiwan, ROC)
A Translation
March 7, 2013

Summary: Today the UN Security Council will vote on whether to impose sanctions on North Korea for conducting nuclear tests. Washington and Beijing have already reached an agreement. The motion to impose sanctions on North Korea will pass. On March 5, North Korea announced in response that it would nullify the 1953 Korean Armistice Agreement, and cut telephone links between the two sides' military forces at Panmunjom. Suddenly, tensions on the Korean peninsula escalated dramatically.

Full Text below:

Today the UN Security Council will vote on whether to impose sanctions on North Korea for conducting nuclear tests. Washington and Beijing have already reached an agreement. The motion to impose sanctions on North Korea will pass. On March 5, North Korea announced in response that it would nullify the 1953 Korean Armistice Agreement, and cut telephone links between the two sides' military forces at Panmunjom. Suddenly, tensions on the Korean peninsula escalated dramatically.

In 1953, during the Korean War, the warring parties met in Panmunjom and signed the Korean Armistice Agreement. But numerous problems remained unresolved. The two sides have yet to sign a peace agreement. They have however, abided by a number of unwritten norms. Occasional conflicts have erupted, both large and small. But for the most part, peace has prevailed for the past 60 years.

Over the past month however, the atmosphere on the Korean Peninsula has changed. NBA star Dennis Rodman reportedly said, "He [Kim Jong-un] wants Obama to do one thing, call him." But U.S. sanctions are already in motion. There is no turning back. The White House said it "cannot encourage North Korea's bad behavior."

In fact, North Korea cannot use the sanctions as an excuse to declare war on South Korea or the United States. Between 2009 and 2010, North Korea twice proclaimed that it would cease to be bound by the Korean Armistice Agreement. This is the third time it said it would nullify the agreement. Its real intent is intimidation and blackmail. North Korea has declared that "It may strike at any time, against any target." It is protesting the United States-South Korean joint exercises scheduled to begin on the 11th. It simultaneously announced that Pyongyang would counter by holding joint land, sea, and air military exercises in the East China Sea.

For the moment, the two sides are merely bluffing. Neither side really wishes to commence hostilities. The United States is still fighting two wars that have not ended. North Korea is utterly impoverished. But its empty bravado nevertheless increases tensions. It inevitably reduces the room for error.

The most dangerous place for the two sides' military exercises is at sea. North Korea has long disputed the maritime boundary between North and South Korea. It feels the boundary was unilaterally set by the United States and South Korea. Recently North Korea's "Tatung Two" semi-submersibles have been active near the demarcation line. South Korea's military is worried. This type of submarine is extremely small. It is equipped with only two torpedoes. It is not easily detectable. One of them was responsible for sinking the Cheonan.

Reconnaissance General Bureau Deputy Chief Kim Yeong cheol declared that North Korea would nullify the armistice agreement. Reconnaissance General Bureau agents are responsible for infiltration, assassination, and sabotage against South Korea. The 2010 Cheonan Incident and the shelling of Yeonpyeong Island were planned and executed by the Reconnaissance General Bureau. Now that the bureau has been assigned to provoke an incident, there is no guarantee that the Cheonan incident will not repeat itself.

North Korea is banging the wardrums. The situation for Beijing is embarrassing. Just before North Korea conducted its third nuclear test, the Mainland authorities repeatedly summoned North Korea's ambassador to Beijing, and called for restraint. They urged North Korea not to conduct the tests. But North Korea ignored them. On New Years Day Plus Three, it want ahead with the tests. Mainland Chinese Foreign Minister Yang Jiechi immediately lodged a powerful and  unprecedented protest with the North Korean ambassador. The public on the Mainland said that North Korea's action must not be tolerated, and that it must be punished.

Beijing's most pressing diplomatic problem is the Diaoyutai Islands. Wang Yi's appointment as Minister of Foreign Affairs is an indicator. Logically speaking, provocations by Pyongyang on the Korean peninsula should encourage the United States and Japan to ease pressure on Beijing over the Diaoyutai Islands. It should divert their attention. But Beijing apparently sees Pyongyang's move as a sore spot. It feels Pyongyang is dragging Beijing down with it. Therefore it has gotten tough on Pyongyang, in order to smooth over the joint United States - Japan containment of the Diayoutai Islands. One might say Beijing is using Pyongyang's move for its own ends.

The current sanctions have yet to be imposed. U.S. Ambassador to the UN Susan Rice spent three weeks discussing the issue with Mainland China's UN Ambassador Li Baodong. She wanted to make sure that the US had the support and cooperation of the Mainland. The US knows the Mainland has the ability to discipline North Korea.

For example, after a string of international sanctions, North Korea's financial network collapsed, even in Switzerland and Macao. Only one network remained operational, on Mainland China. If one truly wishes to have the Security Council prohibit "illicit funds," from North Korea, one must obtain the cooperation of the Mainland. If Beijing shuts off the Yalu River oil pipeline, or prevents food trucks from entering North Korea, Pyongyang will be seriously threatened. This is why Mainland Chinese agreement on sanctions can have a significant impact on North Korea.

Following the Korean War, North Korea and Mainland China signed the "PRC-DPRK Treaty of Friendship, Cooperation and Mutual Assistance." The Treaty states that if one of the signatories "finds itself in a state of war, the other signatory shall immediately do its best to provide military and other assistance." In other words, in the event war erupts, the Chinese mainland is "automatically obligated to intervene." But if North Korea nullifies the armistice, then forces Beijing to take a stand, it may be indulging in wishful thinking. Beijing cannot possibly simultaneously collide with the US and Japan on both the Korean peninsula and the Diaoyutai Islands. It has no choice. It must agree to the U.S.-Japan sanctions against Pyongyang.

North Korea's move has impacted the situation in Northeast Asia. It has also impacted the long-term relationship between the United States and Mainland China, and the return of the United States to the Asian-Pacific region. The Diaoyutai Islands sovereignty dispute has also been affected. Taiwan is within the storm circle. It must pay close attention. It must offer a careful response.

平壤圍魏救趙或拖人下水
【聯合報╱社論】
2013.03.07 02:57 am

聯合國安理會今日將對北韓核試爆制裁案表決，由於會前華府和北京已達成協議，制裁案勢可通過。對此，北韓率先於五日宣布，要將一九五三年簽訂的「韓戰停戰協定」作廢，並切斷板門店兩軍間的電話聯繫，一時間，朝鮮半島緊張局勢驟然升高。

韓戰交戰雙方於一九五三年板門店簽署了《朝鮮停戰協定》，但因許多問題相持不下，至今尚未簽署和平協定；不過，雙方素有不成文規範，雖然間有大小衝突，仍然維持了長達六十年的大體和平。

過去一個月，朝鮮半島的氣氛曾一度轉緩，ＮＢＡ球星羅德曼傳話表示：「金正恩說，只希望能夠和歐巴馬通個電話。」但是美國的制裁已經箭在弦上，白宮強調，「不能鼓勵朝鮮的壞行為」。

其實，北韓不可能藉此向南韓或美國宣戰，之前二○○九年與二○一○年時，北韓也曾兩度表示不再受停戰協定約束，這第三次甚至宣布廢止協定，應仍以恫嚇訛詐的成分居多；北韓宣稱「可在任意時刻對任意對象實施打擊」，目的在對十一日將開始的美國與南韓聯合演習嗆聲，並宣布在同一時間，平壤將在東海實施相抗衡的陸海空聯合軍演。

此際，雙方應當只是虛張聲勢，誰也不想真的開打；美國還有兩場戰爭尚未收場，北韓更是民窮財盡。但儘管是虛張聲勢，也使緊張升高，不免導致緩衝空間減少。

雙方演習最危險的地點是海上，北韓一直對南北韓的海上分界線有異議，認為是美國與南韓單方面畫定的，近日發現北韓的「大同二級」半潛艇，已經在分界線附近活動，南韓軍方非常擔心，此型潛艇體積小，僅搭載二枚魚雷，不易被發現，卻曾是擊沉天安艦的兇手。

此次代表北韓軍方宣布廢止停戰協定的是偵察總局局長金永哲，偵察總局是對南韓進行間諜滲透與暗殺破壞的總指揮，二○一○年的天安艦事件與延坪島炮擊，偵察總局皆是主要的策畫執行者，現在似又負起挑釁的任務，難保天安艦事件不會重演。

北韓擂起戰鼓，北京的處境最為尷尬。北韓進行第三次核試前，大陸就多次召見北韓駐北京大使，要求克制，不要進行試爆。結果北韓不理，大年初三進行試爆後，大陸外交部長楊潔篪立即史無前例的對北韓大使提出強烈抗議，大陸輿論更強烈表示不應縱容，必須懲戒北韓。

北京目前最燙手的外交難題是釣魚台，王毅出任外交部長即是指標。照理說，平壤在朝鮮半島尋釁，或許會使美日在釣島問題上對北京相對鬆手，因而有「圍魏救趙」之功。但北京似視平壤此舉為哪壺不開提哪壺，拖人下水，反而以對平壤強硬，來平緩美日在釣島的圍堵，也可說是打蛇隨棍上，利用了平壤的動作。

這次制裁案提出前，美國駐聯合國大使萊斯，花了三星期與大陸駐聯合國大使李保東磋商，就是希望確保大陸的支持與配合，因為大陸手中，還是有可以懲戒北韓的工具。

例如：在歷經過去多次的國際制裁後，北韓的金融網路已經在世界各地，包括瑞士、澳門等地瓦解，唯一還在運作的，只剩下在中國大陸的金融體系，如果真要達到安理會禁止「非法資金」的效果，必須取得大陸方面的配合。何況，倘若北京關掉鴨綠江上的輸油管，或者不准糧食卡車進入北韓，平壤就深受威脅。這就是為什麼大陸同意制裁，可能對北韓產生重大影響的緣故。

依據韓戰後北韓與中國簽訂的《中朝友好互助條約》，其中規定：一旦締約一方「處於戰爭狀態時，締約另一方應立即盡其全力給予軍事及其他援助」。也就是說，依據這項條約，如果戰爭爆發後，中國大陸有義務「自動介入」。然而，北韓此次若是以廢止停戰協議的宣布，欲逼迫北京表態；這可能是一廂情願，北京不可能在朝鮮半島及釣島兩處皆與美日交惡，只有以同意制裁平壤向美日表態。

北韓的舉動不僅衝擊東北亞局勢，更會牽動美國與中國大陸的長遠關係，且美國重返亞太、釣魚台主權爭議，都會受到影響。台灣亦處暴風圈中，必須密切注意，小心因應。