America's Ultimatum: Does Taiwan still want the US as a Friend?

America's Ultimatum: Does Taiwan still want the US as a Friend?
United Daily News editorial (Taipei, Taiwan, ROC)
A Translation
August 29, 2007

On the evening before Chen Shui-bian was scheduled to return from his state visits, US Deputy Secretary of State John Negroponte issued a solemn admonition. He warned Chen Shui-bian not to hold a "Plebiscite to join the UN under the Name of Taiwan." He warned him not to change the status quo in the Taiwan Straits, and not to play fast and loose with America's friendship. In fact, it was nothing less than an ultimatum.

Negroponte defined Chen's "Plebiscite to join the UN under the Name of Taiwan" as "a step towards a declaration of independence of Taiwan, towards an alteration of the status quo." This essentially defined the contest of wills between the US and Chen Shui-bian. If the US allows Chen Shui-bian to promote his "Plebiscite to join the UN under the Name of Taiwan," that will amount to a display of weakness, to looking on idly as Chen Shui-bian promotes Taiwan independence and changes the status quo. If, on the other hand, the US wants to prevent Chen Shui-bian from promoting Taiwan independence and changing the status quo, it must prevent him from holding the "Plebiscite to join the UN under the Name of Taiwan." Negroponte's remarks laid the US's cards on the table. Now it remains to be seen whether Chen Shui-bian or the US will be the first to fold.

During his interview with Hong Kong's Phoenix Television Network, the only issue Negroponte addressed was Chen's "Plebiscite to join the UN under the Name of Taiwan." Negroponte's comments were clearly intended for Beijing's ears. Mainland China opposes both "de jure independence" and "changing the status quo." Negroponte sees Chen's "Plebiscite to join the UN under the Name of Taiwan" as "a step towards a declaration of independence of Taiwan, towards an alteration of the status quo." This means the US agrees with mainland China's "line in the sand," and stands with the mainland on Chen's "Plebiscite to join the UN under the Name of Taiwan." We warned early on that Chen Shui-bian's "anti-China" moves had already morphed into "anti-America" moves. Consider this a confirmation.

Negroponte said, "This is a time for the authorities in Taiwan to behave in a responsible manner, to behave in a way that would advance the interests of Taiwan." In other words, the US believes that the Taiwan authorities' manipulation of the "Plebiscite to join the UN under the Name of Taiwan" is irresponsible and does not advance the interests of Taiwan. Negroponte even added that "We believe that pursuing a referendum of this kind could, as I said earlier, be interpreted as a step towards a declaration of independence, and we do not believe that that would be a constructive way on the part of the Taiwan authorities to pursue their interests." In other words, the US believes that Chen's "Plebiscite to join the UN under the Name of Taiwan" would not be advantageous even to the Taiwan authorities' own political objectives.

What most attracted attention during the interview was Negroponte's emphasis on Taipei's friendship with Washington. He said that "Taiwan has no better friend than the United States. We strongly support Taiwan's democracy. We support their economy. We're very impressed by their vibrant economy. And we're also, as you know, committed to the defense of Taiwan through the Taiwan Relations Act." But in a sudden shift, Negroponte pointed out that Chen's "Plebiscite to join the UN under the Name of Taiwan" was not in Taiwan's interest. His implication was that the Taiwan authorities were traitors to Taiwan's interests, and that the US was the true defender of Taiwan's interests. According to Negroponte's logic, the Taiwan authorities' "Plebiscite to join the UN under the Name of Taiwan" was in fact "harming Taiwan," while US efforts to stop Chen's "Plebiscite to join the UN under the Name of Taiwan" was "loving Taiwan." As we can see, the US was using this opportunity to speak directly to the public on Taiwan. It wants the public on Taiwan to believe that the US can discern Taiwan's interests better than Chen Shui-bian.

Towards the end of his interview, Negroponte suggested that the Taiwan authorities can benefit "from the friendship, the strong friendship of a country such as the United States" but "we believe that it has to be done in a serious and responsible way." In other words, Chen's "Plebiscite to join the UN under the Name of Taiwan" was not done in a serious and responsible way, and has damaged US friendship. Negroponte came straight to the point when he said "Taiwan has no better friend than the United States." He concluded by saying that "the strong friendship of a country such as the United States" must be maintained "in a serious and responsible way." Two threads ran through the interview. One was opposition to Chen's "Plebiscite to join the UN under the Name of Taiwan." The other was an emphasis on "US friendship." The subtext was: "Does Taiwan still want the US as a friend?"

Does Chen Shui-bian intend to force the public to choose between his "Plebiscite to join the UN under the Name of Taiwan" and friendly relations between Taipei and Washington? Is the future of Taiwan to be decided by Chen's "Plebiscite to join the UN under the Name of Taiwan?" Or does it still depend on American friendship and support? Which is more important? Chen's "Plebiscite to join the UN under the Name of Taiwan?" Or friendly relations between Taipei and Washington?

Chen's "Plebiscite to join the UN under the Name of Taiwan" will test US strategic clout in the Taiwan Strait. If the US is unable to kill the "Plebiscite to join the UN under the Name of Taiwan," that means it is unable to rein in Chen Shui-bian, it is unable to rein in the Democratic Progressive Party, and unable to suppress Taiwan independence. It will be unable to provide mainland China with a satisfactory accounting, and will be unable to oppose unilateral changes to the status quo in the Taiwan Strait. If Chen Shui-bian succeeds in holding his "Plebiscite to join the UN under the Name of Taiwan," then US opposition to unilateral changes in the status quo will no longer have any meaning.

When Chen Shui-bian transited through the US and received the US representative, he wore a "Support Taiwan's Membership in the UN" sticker on his lapel. That constituted an open declaration of war on the US. When US Deputy Secretary of State John Negroponte spoke of "Taiwan's interests" and "US friendship," that constituted a direct response to Chen's challenge.

Chen Shui-bian and the Democratic Progressive Party have a way out. Their "Resolution for a Normal Nation" can be toned down. Their "Plebiscite to join the UN under the Name of Taiwan" can be called off. War and peace often turn on a whim. Does Taiwan still want the US as a friend? Does Chen Shui-bian really want to lead the people of Taiwan on a reckless Jihad against the US?

最後通牒：台灣還要美國這個朋友嗎？
【聯合報╱社論】
2007.08.29 03:50 am

陳水扁出訪返台前夕，美國副國務卿奈葛彭的談話語重心長，句句皆在規勸陳水扁從「入聯公投」懸崖勒馬，不要冒險改變台海現狀，不可玩弄美國的友誼。其實，這儼然已是一封最後通牒。

奈 葛彭升高姿態，將「入聯公投」定義為「朝向宣布台灣獨立及改變台海現狀的一步」。此一「定義」既成，也就形同訂定了美國與陳水扁對決的「勝負標準」。美國 若讓陳水扁推動「入聯公投」，就是向陳水扁示弱，亦是坐視陳水扁推動台獨及改變現狀；反之，美國若不容陳水扁推動台獨及改變現狀，就必須制止「入聯公 投」。奈葛彭的談話不啻與陳水扁攤牌：看陳水扁抵得住，還是美國撐得住？

奈葛彭接受香港鳳凰電視專訪，且以「入聯公投」為唯一詢答主題， 當然有說給中國當局聽的用意。中國反對「法理台獨」，亦反對「改變現狀」；奈葛彭如今將「入聯公投」視為「朝向宣布台獨及改變現狀的一步」，不啻表示美國 認同了中國的「紅線」，且在「入聯公投」上與中國共同持守此一「紅線」。我們很早就提出警告，陳水扁的「反中」操作，已經變質為「反美」，至此已告證實。

奈 葛彭說，此時此際，台灣當局的作為應有責任感，亦應求增進台灣的利益；換句話說，美國認為台灣當局操弄「入聯公投」，是不負責任且違反台灣利益的。甚至， 奈葛彭還說：「對台灣當局追求他們的利益而言，我不相信這（入聯公投）會是建設性的方式。」換句話說，美國認為，「入聯公投」甚至對「台灣當局」的政治目 的亦不利。

專訪中最令人注意的角度，是奈葛彭在訪問首尾皆強調台美友誼。他說，「台灣沒有比美國更好的朋友」，美國強烈支持台灣的民主和 經濟，也透過台灣關係法承諾防衛台灣；但是，話鋒一轉，奈葛彭又從各種角度指出「入聯公投」不符台灣的利益，彷彿台灣當局是台灣利益的背叛者，美國才是台 灣利益的維護者。於是，在奈葛彭的架構中，台灣當局的「入聯公投」其實是「害台灣」的，美國制止「入聯公投」則是「愛台灣」。由此可見，美國亦有透過這次 專訪與台灣人民對話的用意，希望台灣人民相信，美國比陳水扁更能認清台灣的利益。

奈葛彭在專訪結尾時表示，他認為台灣當局可以「從美國的 友誼中獲益」，「但我們相信必須用一種嚴肅和負責任的方式達成」。換句話說，「入聯公投」是「不嚴肅和不負責任的方式」，也傷害了「美國的友誼」。整場專 訪，以「台灣沒有比美國更好的朋友」開門見山，又以「必須用一種嚴肅和負責的方式達成（維持台美友誼）」收尾；全部問答以兩條軸線貫通，一條反對「入聯公 投」，一條強調「台美友誼」，絃外之音不啻就是：台灣還要不要美國這個朋友？

陳水扁難道要逼台灣人民在「入聯公投」與「台美友誼」之間作一選擇？台灣未來的禍福將決定於這場「入聯公投」？或仍須依靠美國友誼的支援？就「台灣利益」而言，就台灣的「國際維生架構」而言，「入聯公投」與「台美友誼」，輕重如何？虛實如何？

奈 葛彭的「哀的美敦書」不啻指出：美國將以能否制止「入聯公投」，來考驗美國在台海弈局中的角色。美國若壓不住入聯公投，也就壓不住陳水扁，也就壓不住民進 黨，也就壓不住台獨，也就不能向中國交代，也就不再能維持「反對任何一方片面改變現狀」的台海政策。美國與陳水扁的對決標準正是：陳水扁的「入聯公投」若 是勝出，即是「反對片面改變現狀」的美國台海政策落敗！

陳水扁去程過境美國，在專機上胸前貼著「入聯公投」貼紙接見美國代表，不啻是公然向美國當局宣戰；而美國當局在陳水扁回台前夕，由副國務卿拋出「台灣利益／美國友誼」的談話，則可視為正面迎戰的姿態。

陳水扁及民進黨不是沒有退路。《正常國家決議文》既可打折，則「入聯公投」的連署亦可煞車。和戰進退，俱在一念之間。台灣還要不要美國這個朋友？陳水扁難道真的要帶領全體台灣人民發動一場不計後果的反美大戰！