The Hsieh/Su Ticket and the Provisions against Corruption

The Hsieh/Su Ticket and the Provisions against Corruption
United Daily News editorial
translated by Bevin Chu
August 2, 2007

The Frank Hsieh lawsuit issue and the Frank Hsieh vice presidential running mate issue have become thoroughly entangled.

On the one hand, Chen Shui-bian is aggressively promoting a "Hsieh/Su ticket." On the other hand, the Hsieh faction's attempt to amend the Democratic Progressive Party's "Provisions against Corruption" was unceremoniously killed by DPP party insiders. On the one hand, Su Tseng-chang pulled an "Escape from Taipei." Before departing for the US, he maintained that he "backed the ticket fully, and was not seeking office himself." He went on to emphasize that "Everyone should believe what I say." On the other hand, word has spread that "Frank Hsieh now wants a Hsieh/Su ticket."

The Hsieh faction had hoped to pass its "Provisions against Judicial Chicanery" amendment, which would have removed the phrase, "immediate suspension from duties upon indictment" from the "Provisions against Corruption." But as soon as word got out, they immediately encountered intense opposition from party insiders. Yu Hsi-kuen and Annette Lu's comments were straight and to the point. The Su faction warned the Hsieh faction against making the DPP lose face. Hsieh was forced to declare that he opposed amending the law. Chen Shui-bian said that "Frank Hsieh is not corrupt, therefore the DPP doesn't need to amend its Provisions against Corruption." However, Chen Shui-bian added: "If Hsieh is smeared, the entire party must demand justice!" and threatened the judiciary, saying "Judicial personnel must not intervene in the presidential election!"

This shows that anti-Hsieh forces within the DPP are waiting for an opportunity to move against him. Frank Hsieh's "Ten Major Scandals" are a Sword of Damocles hanging over his head. Yet Su, Lu, and Yu are openly and vehemently opposed to Hsieh amending the "Provisions against Corruption." Su Tseng-chang chose to simply walk away before Hsieh returned to Taiwan. For Frank Hsieh, this chess game is full of surprises. Frank Hsieh's corruption cases may or may not blow up in his face. But as long as he is indicted, the provision for "immediate suspension upon indictment" will kick in. The allegation that "Su is in, Hsieh is out" will immediately spread, and Hsieh will be in trouble.

As we noted in our previous analysis, any "Hsieh/Su ticket" presents a dilemma for Frank Hsieh. If he refuses a "Hsieh/Su ticket," Su is free to make his own arrangements. If Hsieh is indicted, if party insiders counterattack, Su could be in, and Hsieh could be out. If, on the other hand, Hsieh agrees to a "Hsieh/Su ticket," there could be two entirely different results. One, a "Hsieh/Su ticket" means that Hsieh has endorsed Su as his stand in. If Hsieh is indicted, Su could replace him as presidential candidate. Two, if Su pledges to be Hsieh's "vice presidential running mate," and Hsieh is indicted, but Chen Shui-bian mobilizes the entire party to support Hsieh, Su may be forced to "demand justice for Hsieh" along with the entire party and support Hsieh to the bitter end. This may be one reason Chen Shui-bian must facilitate a "Hsieh/Su ticket" with all his might. If Su pledges to be Hsieh's vice presidential running mate, that will be a fait accompli. If Hsieh is indicted, a "Su is in, Hsieh is out" scenario may not be possible. Hope of a "Hsieh Yeh ticket" was recently snuffed out. Apparently because Frank Hsieh knew a "Hsieh/Su ticket" may be the best way to keep Su Tseng-chang down. But now it appears that the initiative for any "Hsieh/Su ticket" is in Su Tseng-chang's hands, not in Chen Shui-bian's hands, and even less in Frank Hsieh's hands.

If Frank Hsieh can't control Su Tseng-chang, so be it. But if at the appointed time even Chen Shui-bian can't control Su Tseng-chang or an uprising by party insiders, then things are going to get very messy very fast!

Chen Shui-bian advocates a "Hsieh/Su ticket." One reason is his desire to tie Su Tseng-chang down hand and foot. He wants him to accept a vice presidential role on a "Hsieh/Su ticket," He doesn't want Su to have any thoughts of his own, or to create any new problems for him. He wants to avoid having to "change horses in midstream" as that would lead to a chaotic election scenario. Chen Shui-bian wants the following: To retain the "Provisions against Corruption," in order to abduct Frank Hsieh. To declare a war of resistance against the Judiciary, in order to protect Frank Hsieh. To force Hsieh to accept a "Hsieh/Su ticket," in order to keep Su Tseng-chang down. Su Tseng-chang however has rejected a "Hsieh/Su ticket" by going into exile. If Frank Hsieh is indicted he will be confronted with a "Su is in, Hsieh is out" scenario, and be totally isolated. If Su refuses to play ball, Frank Hsieh's attempt to united party insiders will have failed. Therefore if a "Hsieh/Su ticket" fails to gell, Frank Hsieh will be hurt either way.

On the other hand, the situation has already degenerated. Assuming a "Hsieh/Su ticket" suddenly gelled, would a "self- exiled" Su Tseng-chang who rushed back from the US to accept the position of Frank Hsieh's "vice presidential running mate" be a new Su Tseng-chang, or the original Su Tseng-chang? Would such a "Hsieh/Su ticket" still be the original "Hsieh/Su ticket?"

The Hsieh faction's attempt to amend the "Provisions against Corruption" could be seen as an attempt to gauge party insider political support, and an attempt to defuse a potential power struggle within the party. According to reports, the response from party insiders was so unexpectedly hostile, Hsieh was forced to yield. The only help the Hsieh faction can expect from party insiders now is: "If Hsieh is smeared, the entire party must demand justice!" Therefore Frank Hsieh remains Chen Shui-bian's hostage, and must consider accepting a "Hsieh/Su ticket" in exchange for Chen Shui-bian's support. The problem is, Su Tseng-chang isn't necessarily someone whom Hsieh and Chen can move about like a pawn.

All this is a result of the carelessness and passivity of prosecutorial and investigative agencies. Ten Major Scandals are hanging over Hsieh's head. These cases are at least 150 days old. Some are several years old. As long as Frank Hsieh's cases remained unresolved, the curtain cannot be rung down on the DPP's internal power struggles, and Frank Hsieh's election prospects will remain riddled by crises.

It is now three short months from the official start of the presidential election season. The Judiciary has created a dangerous political deadlock. One can only wonder what he judicial personnel the DPP has accused of "judicial chicanery" are thinking at this moment.

「謝蘇配」與「排黑條款」的連動關係
【聯合報╱社論】
2007.08.02 03:55 am

謝長廷的官司問題與謝長廷的副手問題，儼然已糾纏在一起。

一方面，陳水扁力主「謝蘇配」；另一方面，謝系刪修「排黑條款」的嘗試遭到黨內閃電封殺；再一方面，蘇貞昌「走避」美國，臨去仍稱「全力輔選，不要位子」，並強調「大家要相信我說的」；另一方面，又傳出「謝長廷轉向謝蘇配」。

謝系欲藉設定「防司法小人條款」，來刪修「起訴就停權」的「排黑條款」；風聲一出，立即遭到黨內強烈反對，游呂說的話都很直接且難聽，蘇系更放話叫謝系勿丟民進黨的臉。終致謝長廷立即表態反對修法，陳水扁亦稱「謝長廷不黑，不必排黑」。但是，陳水扁又補了一句話：「如果謝被『抹黑』，全黨上下要為他討公道！」並出言恫嚇稱：「司法人員勿介入總統大選！」

情勢顯示，民進黨內反謝的勢力似仍在伺機而動。謝長廷「十大弊案」纏身，但蘇呂游反對謝系發動刪修「排黑條款」的聲勢竟是如此之公然與決絕；蘇貞昌甚至乾脆在謝返國前夕「耍大牌」一走了之。對謝長廷來說，這盤棋委實充滿變數。

倘若情勢如此演變下去，謝長廷的官司不出事則罷，一旦有案被起訴，那麼「起訴就停權」及「蘇上謝下」的雜音恐將立即出現，謝的處境就堪虞了。

我們曾經分析，是否「謝蘇配」，謝長廷面臨兩難之境。一方面，倘若拒絕「謝蘇配」，將使蘇有置身局外的自由度；於是，謝若有案起訴，黨內出現反撲，即會發生「蘇上謝下」的壓力。另一方面，倘若同意「謝蘇配」，亦可能發生兩種截然不同的後果：一、既已「謝蘇配」，謝不啻認可了蘇的「備位」；謝若起訴，蘇即可能取代成為總統候選人。二、但是，反過來說，蘇既承諾為「副手」，萬一謝起訴而陳水扁發動全黨挺謝，蘇恐怕也只能「與全黨上下為謝討公道」，挺謝到底；這也許正是陳水扁要全力促成「謝蘇配」的原因之一，蘇若承諾任副手，生米煮成熟飯，則在謝一旦被起訴時，即不便再有「蘇上謝下」的逾格運作。近日「謝葉配」儼然全面熄火，可見謝長廷亦知「謝蘇配」也許才是套住蘇貞昌的辦法。但是，如今看來，是否「謝蘇配」，主動權是操在蘇貞昌手中，而未必操在陳水扁，更非操在謝長廷。

謝長廷若掌控不住蘇貞昌也就罷了，倘若屆時連陳水扁也掌控不住蘇貞昌及黨內反撲勢力，那個場面就不可收拾了！

陳水扁主張「謝蘇配」，原因之一就是欲先把蘇貞昌套牢，要他接受「謝蘇配」的副手角色，勿心存他想，也勿另生枝節。以免萬一「中途換馬」，選局大亂。陳水扁的手法是：一方面，不刪「排黑條款」，以挾制謝長廷；另一方面，宣示將對抗司法、力保謝長廷；再一方面，迫謝接受「謝蘇配」，並藉以套住蘇貞昌。但是，蘇貞昌如今居然以「自我放逐」來展現拒絕「謝蘇配」的決心；就謝長廷而言，其最高風險是，萬一起訴恐將面臨「蘇上謝下」的壓力，四面楚歌；其最低風險則是，蘇不入局，顯示謝長廷的黨內整合工作終告失敗。因而，倘若「謝蘇配」破局，謝長廷橫豎皆將受傷。

但是，反過來說，事態惡化至今日地步，如果「謝蘇配」突然又告成局，屆時「自我放逐」的蘇貞昌，竟自美兼程奔回接受謝長廷給他的「副手」封賜，則那樣的蘇貞昌還是原來的蘇貞昌嗎？那樣的「謝蘇配」還是原來的「謝蘇配」嗎？

謝系發動刪修「排黑條款」，可視為試探黨內支持度的政治動作，並欲藉此先行拆除黨內鬥爭的引信；詎料，黨內的反應竟是如此具有敵意，逼使謝系知難而退，目前只能求「萬一被『抹黑』，全黨一致為謝討公道」了。正因如此，謝長廷亦進一步受到陳水扁的挾持，必須考慮接受「謝蘇配」來換取陳水扁的力挺；問題是，蘇貞昌卻未必受長扁二人擺佈。

這一切皆因檢察單位的顢頇懈怠所致。謝身纏十大弊案，這些案子少說已逾一百五十日，其中亦有糾纏數年的老案；謝長廷的案子一天不偵結，民進黨內的鬥爭態勢即不能塵埃落定，謝長廷的選情也就仍是危機四伏。

距總統大選正式開跑僅剩三個月，司法竟使政局陷於此種高度風險的僵局，不知那些民進黨口中的「司法小人」作何感想？