How Long can Chen Shui-bian seek Short Term Advantage?

How Long can Chen Shui-bian seek Short Term Advantage?
United Daily News editorial
translated by Bevin Chu
August 8, 2007

The ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) has been in power for seven years. But it still hasn't learned the basics of government administration. During the last year of its second term, it suddenly announces that it intends to promote "A Benefit a Week" policy that will rapidly transform Taiwan into a prosperous "New Island Paradise." This proves one thing: The Taiwan region of China really and truly is not a "normal nation."

The Chang Chun-hsiung cabinet treats the ROC central government as if it were the DPP's election committee. It assiduously administers injections of adrenalin into its political heart. This may give the DPP's election campaign a boost, but what about the rest of the nation? Can our society really endure the disruptive effects of such a reckless and short-sighted policy process? Can the economy really withstand such huge deficits?

In two and a half months, the Executive Yuan spent nearly 440 billion NT on its so-called "Benefits for All" policy. This rivals predecessor Chang Chun-hsiung's "8100, Taiwan Starts Moving Economic Stimulus Plan" seven years ago. The ruling DPP squandered 800 billion on that fiasco, for which it got long-term recession and high unemployment. Now that Premier Chang has staged a comeback, his "Benefits for All" fantasy is more than a little unsettling.

Recent market fluctuations have left many individual investors in a bind. The government's heavy handed intervention and release of flawed data are inexcusable. The stock market rebound was something people were originally happy to see. But the ruling regime was determined to trumpet its own political accomplishments. It pushed the market index up to 10,000 points by manipulating government funds. It artificially created a speculative climate. It also increased the market's opacity. The government's intervention seduced many younger investors into buying high. But can a government determined to manipulate the stocket market outmaneuver highly nimble foreign investors? Besides, the global market is full of surprises. Can Taiwan stocks really rise to the sky through to government intervention? When the global market is subjected to repeated shocks, when anxious political hacks eager to claim credit are wondering what to do next, foreign investors and major investors will already have taken their profits and walked away. Those left holding the bag will be ordinary members of the public, individual investors who made the mistake of swallowing the government's lies about "Benefits for All." What is this, if not politically inflicted harm?

Let's look at the housing market. Behind its bullish facade lie pitfalls akin to the stock market's. Look at the big picture, and we see the same policy mistakes and biases. Mistake One was to abuse tax cuts and low interest loans to artificially stimulate demand in the housing market. Mistake Two was to reclassify farm land as commercial land, and to auction off state owned urban land, enabling large syndicates to engage in real estate speculation. Housing prices surged upward, but the overall economy didn't. Supply did not match demand. Vested interests made huge profits, while ordinary citizens were left holding the bag. One might say these are economic shackles by which the DPP has fettered an entire generation.

If we examine each of the Chang cabinet's "Benefits for All," we find they are full of obsolete interventionist thinking. For example, manipulation of the stock market, and intervention in the housing market. They also resort to such outmoded approaches as subsidies. For example, minimum wage subsidies and taxi gasoline price subsidies. These reveal a blinkered, short sighted mindset that precipitately commutes the sentences of violent felons without regard for the consequences. Taipei County's elevation to the status of a Directly Administered Municipality was nothing but "drawing a biscuit to appease one's hunger." So was the half-baked Rural Reconstruction Plan. The "Benefits for All" have benefitted only the wealthy. For ordinary citizens they have been a disaster. The burden of these failed policies must now be borne by society as a whole.

The Chang cabinet is devoting its attention to concocting these "rapidly recycled" Benefits for All. This is distracting it from the routine conduct of government affairs. Even more frightening is how such a politicized atmosphere undermines respect for professionalism. The president issues an order, and the formula for oil pricing is immediately rewritten. The cost of living skyrockets, but the government has no remedy, proving once again its sheer incompetence. Professionals of consciences have been silenced. When the Executive Yuan promotes its "Benefits for All," it boasts of the amount invested. But when asked where the funds came from, it pretends not to hear. What are its policies, if not sheer speculation? Does the state treasury contain enough silver to pay for them? Or will these debts need to be repaid by future generations?

Actually, many of the the so-called "Benefits of the Week" are already disintegrating. Some have vanished altogether. For example, housing sales and volume are weak. Rental rates for commercial real estate have risen sharply. The impact of changes in the urban landscape and stock market lasted only two months. Momentum has died, and the outlook remains uncertain. Taipei County's elevation to the status of "Directly Administered Municipality" was mere lip service without basis in fact. The ill considered commutation of the sentences of convicted felons and their early release from prison has resulted in suicides, murders, and drug related deaths, courtesy our "enlightened regime." These "Benefits for All" are purely for the sake of votes. But the election is eight months away. These "benefits" may change or vanish unexpectedly. They are mere illusions.

To deal with problems caused by the weather during next year's Olympic Games, Beijing has established a "Weather Modification Office" that has received much attention. The Chang cabinet's "Benefits for All" group is attempting to modify the political climate. It too is a "Weather Modification Office." Its decisions will not only affect the political climate during the coming election season. Its calamitous decisions will destroy the future of an entire generation.

利多變泡沫：偏鋒短線豈能持久？
【聯合報╱社論】
2007.08.08 02:51 am

執政七年，連怎麼維持基本行政運作都沒學會的主政者，突然在最後一年宣稱要周周放送大利多，快速打造「寶島新樂園」的好景。這個現象只印證了一件事：台灣果然不是一個正常的國家。

張內閣把整個政府當成民進黨的輔選機器，一味猛打政治強心針，對民進黨選情或許確有一定程度的拉抬效果；但對國家而言，我們的社經體質真禁得起這種專走偏鋒、炒短線政策的翻攪折騰嗎？台灣的未來又承擔得起這麼龐大的透支嗎？

僅僅兩個半月，行政院已大手筆釋出總額逾四千四百多億的所謂政策「利多」；這比起張俊雄七年前任閣揆時推出的「八一○○，台灣啟動」，已不遑多讓。當年狂擲八千多億的率爾操刀，結果卻讓台灣陷入長期蕭條及高失業的窘境；如今捲土重來，張內閣製造的利多夢幻，不免讓人餘悸猶存。

以最近股市的暴起暴跌為例，許多散戶慘遭套牢，政府的過度介入與釋放錯誤訊息，實難辭其咎。股市回春，本來當然是人們樂見之事；但主政者亟欲美化政績，強力運用基金哄抬「萬點行情」，不僅升高了台股的投機氣氛，也添加了市場研判的濁度。正因為政府介入作多，誘使許多小投資人追高買進；問題是，一心作多的政府操盤手，哪裡鬥得過刁鑽靈活的外資？何況，國際股市瞬息萬變，台股豈能因政府支撐即可一柱擎天？也因此，當國際股市連鎖震盪，貪功躁進的政治炒手仍驚魂未定，外資及大戶早已獲利了結揚長而去，卻留下眾多誤食政府「利多」誘餌的套牢散戶；這豈不是政策害人？

再看最近房市的景象，表面風光背後也埋藏著和股市相若的陷阱，究其原委，同樣可歸咎政府政策的錯誤及偏斜。錯誤之一，是濫用賦稅減免及低利貸款，催化市場對房屋的假性需求；錯誤之二，是濫用農地釋出及率爾拍賣都心國有地，助長財團對土地房價的炒作。亦即，房價雖然高漲，但社會經濟並未表現出相應的榮景；在供需不對稱的情況下，房地既得利益者愈形暴富，而基層民眾卻愈無力擺脫無殼蝸牛的處境。這甚至可說是民進黨留給整個新生世代的枷鎖。

檢視張內閣釋放的各項「利多」，不僅充滿老舊的「干預」思維（例如對股市的操作及對房市的介入）；且動輒訴諸落伍的「補貼」手法（例如對基本時薪和計程車油價的補貼）；更一再暴露瞻前不顧後的短視近利心態（諸如減刑條例的草率推動，北縣升格直轄市的畫餅充飢，及粗糙的農村改建方案）。財團的利多，卻是平民的災難，種種政策偏失的代價，均轉嫁給社會大眾承擔。

更可怕的是，當張內閣將全副精力用於發想這些「快速回收」的利多時，不僅影響到常態的政務推動；在政治掛帥的氛圍下，更影響到行政體系的專業判斷。總統一聲令下，浮動油價公式即宣告改弦易轍；但民生物價飛漲，政府卻束手無策，在在證明行政失能、專業喑啞已到極點。尤其，行政院動輒推出利多，且屢屢誇稱投入可觀經費，但對資金從何而來，卻一概避而不談。這些政策如果不是買空賣空的勾當，請問：國庫中有足夠的銀兩支付嗎？或者這些均將留待下一世代來償還？

其實，所謂一周一利多，其中多項已現破綻甚至已告幻滅。例如，曾幾何時，房價已見盤弱，價量背離，更出現店租暴漲、街市變貌等效應；股市只飆了兩個月，後繼無力，前景莫測；北縣升格，口惠實不至；減刑者出獄，自殺、殺人，吸毒而死，「德政」變色……。這些「利多」，皆是為了選舉而放送；但如今距選舉尚有八個月，這些利多竟已變形或幻滅，可見其虛浮不實。

北京為因應明年奧運的天候問題，特成立了「人工影響天氣辦公室」，簡稱「人影辦」，備受矚目。若要比擬，張內閣的「利多」小組，利用人工影響選舉氣候，稱其為超級「人影辦」也當之無愧；因為，他們的決策何止影響一次選舉，更將貽禍往後一整個世代的未來。