Checkbook Diplomacy: Account Overdrawn

Checkbook Diplomacy: Account Overdrawn
China Times editorial (Taipei, Taiwan, ROC)
A Translation
August 27, 2007

President Chen Shui-bian's recent state visit to Central America was trouble-ridden from beginning 'til end. The visit has done more harm than good. His "transit diplomacy" was doomed from the start. It threw dollar bills at everyone but got nothing in return, not even symbolic gestures. Even upon arrival, all Chen discussed with the media was domestic affairs. As usual, he came out guns blazing, firing in all directions. No surprises there.

Ever since assuming the office of president, Chen Shui-bian has wanted nothing more than to conduct state visits. Particularly to Central American allies whose geographical location provide him with an excuse to transit the US. These nations are the object of repeat visits. But after seven years, his treatment during transit, as well as the Republic of China's diplomatic status have steadily declined. His state visits were once occasions for Green camp gloating. Now they are public humiliations better forgotten. This so-called "graduation trip" is turning out to be yet another hollow charade. To save face, Chen insists on going through the motions. But the reality is not so easy to laugh off.

The purpose of this visit to El Salvador, Honduras and Nicaragua, was not to bask in twenty-one gun salutes and the red carpet treatment, but to extinguish diplomatic fires. From the beginning this visit was shrouded by dark clouds. Two of them. The first cloud was President Chen's aggressive promotion of his "Plebiscite to Join the UN under the name of Taiwan." This severely damaged relations with the US, and even motivated the US to retaliate. The second cloud was Costa-Rica's shift toward Beijing. The Central American tectonic plate was beginning to slip. These two clouds constitute an unprecedented crisis for the Republic of China. If we review President Chen's actions, he obviously has no plans to repair relations between Taipei and Washington. He is relying exclusively on checkbook diplomacy to temporarily shore up relations with Taipei's Central American allies. Forget permanent cures. These don't even qualify as stopgap measures. Chen's bungling has laid bare the ROC's diplomatic crisis for all to see.

Chen Shui-bian has repeatedly abused Washington's goodwill, by using his transits through the US to consolidate popular support for his own presidency. Now an offended Washington is using his own weapon against him. It is using lowered levels of treatment to punish him. Many things in life have an odd symmetry to them. If you exploit transit diplomacy to elevate your status, you provide others a means to diminish your status. They can pull the red carpet from under you and let you take a tumble. Chen Shui-bian says he "endured humiliation for a higher cause." In fact he "brought humiliation upon himself." Worse yet, he resorted to yet another ruse to win sympathy for himself as a sacrificial martyr for Taiwan independence. Taipei/Washington relations are no longer even a consideration for Chen Shui-bian.

Halfway through his trip, Chen Shui-bian had issued checks amounting to 300 million US. Projects underwritten include a hydro-electric plant for Honduras and low interest loans for a high school computer center. Officially, hundreds of millions in aid were doled out. The actual amount is probably far higher. If this money actually improved the lives of the local populace, consolidated bilateral relations, and won international support for the Republic of China, it might be worth it. Unfortunately during Chen Shui-bian's summit with Central American heads of state, they vetoed the Chen regime's sole request, that they endorse his application for UN membership under the name of Taiwan. Honduras cancelled three joint press conferences with Chen in a row. Reporters from Taiwan were so frustrated they walked out in protest.

Economic conditions on Taiwan of late have been less than ideal. Entire families have been committing suicide by carbon monoxide inhalation at an alarming rate. Yet the Chen regime continues giving away huge sums of hard-earned taxpayer money, hoping for diplomatic support in return. When allies demand money, they receive it without hesitation. Meanwhile official summit resolutions are treated like hot potatoes. If this is not a warning signal, what is? Even more worrisome is that Nicaragua, Panama, and Guatemala failed to petition on behalf of Chen's "Plebsicite to join the UN in the Name of Taiwan." Reports are the Panamanian government refused even to allow the president's plane to transit Panama. These countries must take United Nations peacekeeping and Security Council matters into consideration. These are carrots and sticks that Beijing has but Taipei doesn't. The ambivalence displayed by Taipei's Central American allies suggests that bilateral relations are shaky.

Is this all Chen Shui-bian has to show for his diplomatic efforts? That depends on how Chen sees the role of diplomacy. For Chen Shui-bian, the power of his political office comes first, Democratic Progressive Party electoral victories come next, the national interest and the public welfare come last. This is the first time the Democratic Progressive Party has been in power. It has always constituted a minority in the legislature. Its crisis awareness is acute. It lacks confidence in its political accomplishments. That is why Chen Shui-bian resorts to any and all means to protect himself and ensure victory. Chen and the DPP live one day at a time. Their calculations are forever short term. A person without a long term strategy, will invariably find himself bedeviled by short term crises. If one is forever making short term calculations, one can never make long term plans. As a result, one's strategic situation steadily deteriorates, until everything goes awry at the same time, and all one can do is fight one fire after another.

Seven years of repeat visits to allies really didn't require Chen Shui-bian's participation each and every time. Looking back it was all for internal consumption, never for long term strategic positioning. It was nothing more than a stage on which to rally domestic support. The result has been the squandering of national resources in exchange for international embarrassment. Chen loves to transit the US. But his motive is to elevate his own status, not to bolster Taipei/Washington relations. His aggressive promotion of plebiscites, his termination of the National Unification Council, his "Plebiscite to join the UN in the Name of Taiwan," all put his personal political victories above Taipei/Washington relations. He has long regarded the national interest as his personal bank account. On the one hand he spends freely, as if there was no tomorrow. On the other hand, he never makes any deposits. For seven years, he has been living off the capital. Any future head of state who inherits his mess will find the account marked "overdrawn."

Chen refused to put on a tie. Instead, he sported a "Support Taiwan's Bid to join the UN" sticker to his lapel. He threatened to film a commercial saying Costa Rican coffee tasted bad. Apart from diminishing the prestige of the presidency, all he did was make himself an international laughing stock. Choosing to rail against the newly formed Ma/Hsiao ticket and the media from overseas, merely confirmed that foreign diplomacy has never been Chen Shui-bian's highest priority.

中時電子報
中國時報 　2007.08.27
這趟出訪加速透支了外交資源
中時社論

陳水扁總統這趟出訪中美洲，似乎一路諸事不順，效果更是憂多喜少。過境外交從一開始就玩不成，灑大把銀子卻連個起碼象徵回饋都掙不到，臨到與媒體互動暢談的還是「內政」，而且同樣是火力四射，完全沒讓人意外！

從就任總統以來，陳水扁就熱中出訪，尤其是能讓他過境美國的中美洲友邦，更是頻頻登門的對象。但七年下來，過境待遇和台灣的外交局勢卻是日走下坡，他的元首外交也從風光得意到灰頭土臉。這趟所謂畢業旅行的出訪更形同雞肋，為了面子還得勉強作樂在其中狀，真實情況卻讓人笑不出來。

這次出訪薩爾瓦多、宏都拉斯和尼加拉瓜，已不是為了享受禮炮和紅地毯，而是緊急進行外交固盤。此行一開始就籠罩在兩重陰影下，一是陳總統強推台灣入聯公投，嚴重損壞台美關係，招致美方報復；二是哥斯大黎加倒向中共，中美洲外交板塊開始流失，兩者對台灣來說都是空前嚴重的危機。但細看陳總統的作為，顯然並不打算修補台美關係，對中美洲友邦也只靠開支票暫時保平安。不要說治本，連治標都談不上，等於將台灣當前的外交危機讓國人看得一清二楚。

往昔陳水扁多次利用美國對台灣的善意，拿過境美國的待遇替個人造勢，如今得罪美國後，美國以子之矛攻子之盾，壓低過境待遇來懲罰他。很多事情是相對的，想用過境來替自己墊腳，相對地，也給人家一個抽墊子讓你跌一跤的機會。陳水扁自稱「忍辱負重」，但其實是自取其辱，甚至想以苦肉計營造自己為台灣受辱的形象。台美關係，真的已不在陳水扁考量之內了。

而行程走到一半，陳水扁開出了三億美元的支票，項目包括投資宏都拉斯水力發電廠、國中小電腦中心低利貸款等。總計百億台幣的援助，數額實在高得驚人，如果確能改善當地民眾生活，並且鞏固彼此關係，進而在國際間為台灣提供相對的支持，倒也值得，問題是，這次陳水扁與中美洲元首的高峰會上，卻否決了我們唯一要求的支持台灣參與聯合國案。而宏都拉斯三度取消總統記者會，也氣得台灣記者集體退席抗議。

台灣這些年來經濟狀況並不好，三不五時就來個全家燒炭，但扁政府還是大筆送出納稅人的血汗錢，無非想換來外交支持。結果，友邦要錢毫不猶豫，一個官樣文章的高峰會決議都推三阻四，這對台灣來說，怎麼不是嚴重的警訊？更令人擔心的是，台灣入聯提案，尼加拉瓜、巴拿馬、瓜地馬拉都沒有連署，據說巴拿馬甚至拒絕總統專機過境。雖然各國有聯合國維和或爭取安理會席位的考量，但這些都是中共可以獎懲而台灣無能為力的，友邦此時的曖昧態度，意味著雙方關係已經不穩了。

陳水扁拚外交拚得這般用力，怎是這結局呢？這要從他怎麼看待外交談起。對陳水扁來說，自己的權位居第一，其次是民進黨勝選，然後才是國家利益與人民生計。民進黨第一次執政，在國會始終是少數，生存危機感很強，對政績也沒有自信，所以陳水扁會不擇手段地自保及求勝。過一關算一關之下，永遠都在短線操作。人無遠慮，必有近憂。因為總在搶短，不作長遠經營，於是局勢就愈來愈差，到了後期百病俱發，只能一天到晚忙著救火。

七年來頻頻走訪友邦，並非都得要陳水扁本人御駕親征不可，但回頭看來其目的全是為了內部消費，不是為了長遠的外交布局，只是拿出訪當作對內造勢甚至放話的舞台。結果耗掉了大量的國家資源，換得的卻是愈見困窘的國際處境。他喜歡過境美國，目的也在於自抬身價，而不是為台美關係著想。至於強推公投、終統、台灣入聯，也是把個人與勝選置於台美關係之上。他長期把國家利益當成個人政治帳戶，一面毫無節制地揮霍，一面又不往帳戶裡存錢，吃了七年的老本，等於將未來元首的外交帳戶都透支掉了。

不打領帶、貼上入聯貼紙見客，聲稱要拍廣告說哥斯大黎加咖啡難喝等等，除了降低元首格調，只能貽笑國際，而選在國外痛批馬蕭與媒體，更證明「外交」從不是陳水扁的優先考量。