United Daily News editorial (Taipei, Taiwan, ROC)
A Translation
June 20, 2008
Inauguration Day May 22, 2008
As of today, the Ma administration has been in office exactly one month. By the same token, the DPP has been in the opposition for one month.
For the Ma administration, there was no honeymoon period. Soon after it took office, six-hour long lines formed at gas stations. The repercussions from the Diaoyutai ramming incident are still being felt. One month has whizzed by, with hardly a day of peace. Yin Chi-ming's oil price hikes, Chen Chao-min's remarks on the 319 Shooting Incident of 2004, Francisco Ou's green card controversy, and Chen Wu-hsiung's fertilizer hoarding issue have all provoked demands for their resignations.
The Liu cabinet has been in office less than a month. Yet there have been calls for four cabinet members to step down. What exactly is the problem? Must the Liu cabinet learn the hard way, by means of "shock treatments?"
Since the Ma administration took office, the political landscape has changed. The public need no longer listen to endless static about "love of Taiwan vs. a lack of love for Taiwan," hate speech about "Taiwanese vs. Chinese pigs," "elimination of Chiang influences and de-Sinicization," and "rectification of names and the authoring of a new constitution." Political differences may not have gone away, but at least they are not longer drawing blood. The greatest consolation the second change in ruling parties has granted the people is liberation from never ending Blue vs. Green confrontation. The focus of public debate has shifted from "Taiwan independence" and "Taiwanese, not Chinese" identity politics to public policy issues. No longer is the government using controversies to divide the community. Instead, the community is setting the agenda. The public no longer has the uneasy feeling that its leaders are manipulating them. Instead the public is setting the agenda, and politicians are following their lead. Examples include oil prices, cross-strait issues, and the stimulation of domestic demand.
The Ma administration took office one month ago. Since then, one crisis after another has exploded in rapid succession, in unprecedented fashion. Major earthquakes are often accompanied by powerful aftershocks. If these crises are not handled properly, they can seriously damage the Ma administration's image. But if they are handled well, or considered handled well in retrospect, the Ma administration's stock may rise. The Ma administration took advantage of the Boao Forum to play the Vincent Siew card. It ordered the ROC Coast Guard to escort a private fishing vessel, the Quanjiafu, allowing it to circumnavigate Diaoyutai island. These are miraculous achievements. On the other hand, annoucing a gasoline prince increase at 5:45pm and failing to preempt the hoarding of fertilizers amount to shooting itself in the foot. Furthermore, the green card controversy was from beginning to end, a crisis of the Ma administration's own making. Ma administration crisis management turned out to be crises managing the Ma administration. More than one political appointee put his foot in his mouth, including Premier Liu Chao-hsuan, who said that that "giving up one's green card constituted a personal sacrifice." Obviously somebody forgot to tighten the screws.
Let's review the crises which have exploded since the DPP stepped down last month. The DPP has seized the initiative and has been setting the agenda. But it has failed to deal with the issues in sufficient depth. It has generated plenty of thunder, but little rain. Take cross-strait issues. Taiwan's opening to the mainland is a fait accompli. But the DPP has no idea how to deal with this macro trend. All it knows how to do is to deny the existence of the 1992 Consensus. It is unable to explain how it reached its conclusion. Take the Diaoyutai ramming incident. All it can do is accuse the Ma administration of being wishy-washy, of being suddenly soft then suddenly hard. It is unable to deny that the ROC Coast Guard circumnavigated the island, shattering a three decade old psychological barrier. Take the green card issue. It was later discovered that at least 22 DPP political appointees had dual citizenship, and that three "ambassadors" have green cards, including Representative to Japan Koh Se-kai, who has a "Sakura Card." The DPP has nothing of substance to offer on cross-strait and Diaoyutai issues. On the green card and other issues, the only dirt it has been able to dig up blew up in its own face. If the Ma administration ever learns how not to trip over its own tongue, the DPP may run out of issues to demagogue.
A month long ordeal, consisting of one crisis after another, all part of a larger struggle between the newly empowered KMT and the newly disempowered DPP. Major storms generate large waves. How will they impact the KMT and DPP's profit and loss columns? We will learn the answer only after the storm is over and the dust has settled. For example, the final verdict on cross-straits relations will depend upon the aftermath of the various summit meetings. The final verdict on the Diaoyutai ramming incident will depend on its impact on the national psyche. The final verdict on the government's policy of stimulating domestic demand will depend on its domestic political and economic consequences. In other words, on which party has dealt with these matters in greater depth. Whose impact will be greater, and who will emerge the victor, will be subject to the test of time.
The KMT government's greatest achievements one month into its term are: 1. A clearer sense of national identity, diminished frictions between community groups, and increased political stability. Amidst the hubbub, a quieter, more peaceful society has emerged. 2. Direct cross-strait transportation links and the confrontation over Diaoyutai have forced Taipei, Washington, Tokyo and Bejing to display greater flexibility, in theory as well as in practice. Important changes have already taken place. Taiwan will become more visible, and its status less rigidly defined. It need no longer be defined as a pawn in a "cross strait" or "Taipei, Washington, Tokyo" strategic struggle. It can now be considered a player in a "Taipei, Washington, Tokyo, Beijing" strategic scenario. Meanwhile, the KMT government faces major challenges. How will it achieve economic growth and social justice in the face of inflation and rising oil prices? How will it achieve its goal of an Asian Pacific economic and political platform?
The DPP may find it difficult to define this month's crises as grist for its mill or as its opportunity for a comeback. Once the KMT's fever has broken, the shock effect of these events and issues may help it find its way, eliminate blind spots and avoid dead ends. The Ma administration has been in office for only one month. Yet the DPP has been demanding that it step down. Such unreasonable demands, once discredited, will become less and less convincing over time. Therefore, the DPP had better redouble its efforts to find a new strategic objective. Guerrilla warfare and harrassment tactics may not be sustainable in the long-term.
For the past month the air has been thick with smoke. Some people consider it appalling that the new administration has descended into such chaos in only one month. Others see things differently. Others consider it fortunate that the Ma administration has been able to confront so many critical issues during its first month in office. Some are concerned about chaos. Others are wallowing in undisguised Schadenfreude. The DPP is probably rubbing its hands with anticipation at the prospect of a political atmosphere choked with impenetrable smoke. The KMT is probably working hard to ensure that the dust settles.
Over the past month, the air has been filled with smoke. The KMT government has repeatedly enacted the Chinese parable about the "Father and Son Riding the Mule to Market." No matter who rides or doesn't ride the mule, someone has condemned it. Will the KMT eventually find its way? Over the past month, the dust has gradually settled. The DPP however has seized on every opportunity to demand someone's resignation. Is this how it intends to fufill its role as an "opposition party with experience in governance?"
今天滿月：國民黨執政及民進黨下野
【聯合報╱社論】
2008.06.20 03:23 am
今天是馬政府就職滿月，也是民進黨再度成為反對黨滿月。
對於馬政府來說，根本沒有「蜜月」。上任不久加油站就出現六個小時的車龍，一直到今日仍餘波盪漾的則是釣魚台撞船事件，一個月匆匆過去，幾無寧日；其間從尹啟銘的油品漲價、陳肇敏的三一九談話、歐鴻鍊的綠卡風波，及陳武雄的肥料囤積等，都被人高喊下台！
上台未滿月就下台聲四起的劉內閣，究竟是出了根本的問題，或只是「震撼教育」而已？
馬政府上任，國人感受到的最鮮明的政治景觀就是：不再動輒聽到「愛台灣／不愛台灣」、「中華民國／台灣國」、「台灣人／中國豬」、「去蔣／去中」、「正名制憲」等纏繞耳際的噪音；這些政治歧見或許仍然潛存於社會之中，但已無血肉撕裂的感覺。政黨二度輪替帶給民眾最大的慰藉，就是從藍綠撕裂的窒悶中脫困。社會議論的焦點，由統獨、族群，轉變成公共議題；且不再是由主政者利用議題來操弄社會，反而是由社會主導了議題設定。亦即，國人如今已經感覺不到主政者用統獨或族群的議題來玩弄民眾，反而見到社會輿論將主政者導向公共議題，如油價、兩岸議題、擴大內需方案等的議論之中。
馬政府就任一個月的另一鮮明景觀是「大議題／大事件」盡出，一個月裡出現這麼多「大議題／大事件」，堪謂空前。大事件自然會掀起大風波，大風波處理不好，必會嚴重折損馬政府形象；但若當時處理得好，或事後被認為處理得好，亦可能提升馬政府的社會評價。準此以論，馬政府掌握博鰲論壇的機會打出蕭萬長這張牌，及掌握「全家福號」海釣船出海，演出海巡艦繞釣魚台一周，皆可視為神來之筆的佳作；但如油品漲價選在下午五時四十五分宣布，及對防止囤積肥料失去機先等，卻可謂竟在不應翻車的路上翻了車。再者，綠卡事件則可謂自始至終皆是馬政府自己製造及養大的危機；處理危機，卻反而「被危機處理」。至於不少政務官常因失言或口誤掀起風波，包括劉兆玄的「棄綠卡犧牲說」，皆是螺絲沒有鎖緊的徵候。
回頭看民進黨下野一個月，層出迭現的大事件、大題材，使民進黨立即搶占了輿論的焦點；然而，民進黨的戰略縱深顯然不夠，熱鬧有餘但火候欠佳。例如：面對兩岸議題，民進黨對開放的大趨勢已完全失去反對的空間，只強調不承認「九二共識」，卻說不出個所以然；在釣魚台撞船事件，只說馬政府忽軟忽硬，卻不能否定海巡艦終於繞島一周突破了三十年的心理障礙；至於綠卡事件，後來發現民進黨不但至少有二十二名政務官帶著雙重國籍上任，且有三名「大使」始終持有外國綠卡，包括駐日代表許世楷的「櫻花卡」。倘若民進黨在如兩岸及釣魚台的大議題上沒有縱深可言；在綠卡等事件上，又出現反挫自己的後座力；再加上馬政府若未來失言口誤亦漸漸減少，則民進黨恐怕要擔心未來可能找不到可以發揮的話題了。
一個月來此起彼落的大議題、大事件，可謂對上台的國民黨及下野的民進黨都是一場大操兵。大事件自然有大風波，這些大風波對國民黨及民進黨的最後得失，恐怕要看風波停息、塵埃落定之後的效應，而不能只看風波正起之時的利鈍；例如，兩岸要看直航的後續效應，釣魚台要看在國民心理上留下何種印象，擴大內需則要看帶動的地方政經效應；亦即，要看兩黨誰的縱深夠，誰的後效大，誰能禁得起時間的考驗，始能決定誰是最後的贏家。
概括而言，一個月來國民黨政府的較大成就是：一、國家認同比較清朗、族群鬥爭降溫、憲政體制較趨平穩；在喧鬧的表象中，出現了比較寧靜平和的社會基礎。二、由於兩岸直航及釣魚台角力，使得「台／美／日／中」四邊關係的想像空間及實際情境，皆已經出現或可能出現不同於往昔的重要變化；今後，台灣的主體地位若能漸形凸顯且靈活，即不必將「兩岸」及「台／美／日」下成兩盤棋，而可望將「台／美／日／中」下成一盤棋。另者，國民黨政府面臨的主要挑戰，則仍是在油價上漲、通貨膨脹的壓力下，如何實現一個經濟成長、分配公平的社會；並在此一基礎上，向「亞太平台」的政經角色前進。
至於民進黨，似乎不宜將這一個月的「大議題／大事件」視為其東山再起、捲土重來的本錢；因為，這些大事件及大議題所造成的「震撼教育」，反而可能協助國民黨打通了經脈、消滅了盲點與死角，出完了疹子；則民進黨在馬政府上台的第一個月就大喊下台，恐怕這種勢頭一旦再而衰、三而竭，未來難以為繼。因此，民進黨仍應以擴展戰略的縱深為主要的努力目標，游擊戰及騷擾戰恐難圖長久。
這一個月，掀起漫天煙塵。有人認為，才一個月就亂成這個樣子，怎麼得了；但也有人認為，第一個月就能把所有的大議題翻攪一遍，未嘗不是好事。有人憂慮煙塵漫天的亂象，也有人樂見提前出現塵埃落定的效應；煙塵漫天可能是民進黨期待的景象，塵埃落定則是國民黨努力的目標。
一個月來，煙塵漫天，屢屢演出父子騎驢的國民黨政府，會不會漸漸找到執政的正確手感？相對而言，一個月來，也逐漸塵埃落定，動不動就喊「下台」的民進黨，將如何真正實現其「有執政經驗的反對黨」的角色？
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