No Determination, No Growth

No Determination, No Growth
China Times editorial (Taipei, Taiwan, ROC)
A Translation
August 25, 2009

Recently a number of economic indicators have jumped. The global economy appears to be emerging from the worst recession since the 1930s. Taiwan's economy is gradually turning the corner along with the global economy. Last Thursday the DGBAS changed its estimate for Taiwan's GDP growth rate for this year to -4.04%. If post-disaster reconstruction proceeds smoothly in the wake of Typhoon Morakot, this estimate may be increased to -3.75%. Nevertheless we find it impossible to share the government's official optimism. The road to reconstruction is long. Tens of thousands of families have lost family members and homes. They have no idea where they will live.
Recently the economic indicators of major countries in Europe and the United States have offered good news. For example, July sales for existing US homes have increased for four months in a row, and established a ten year record. The Eurozone August Purchasing Managers Index unexpectedly rose. When U.S., European, Japanese and other central bank presidents attended the World Bank Annual Meeting last Friday, the World Bank president betrayed a rare smile. Asia's emerging countries grew substantially faster than Europe and the United States during the second quarter, to the amazement of many economists.

Recently the Economist magazine investigated the surprising recovery of the emerging Asian countries. It believes the emerging countries in Asia recovered more rapidly than those in Europe and the United States because of the manufacturing cycle. Asian governments have established generous financial revitalization programs. Their banking systems suffered relatively minor damage. Their private sectors have high rates of saving. The critical question however, is whether the Asian countries' growth rates are sustainable.

The global economy has gradually returned to normal. But Taiwan was hit by heavy rains from Typhoon Morakot, the biggest typhoon in a century. Landslides and mudslides have changed the face of the land. The livelihood of hundreds of thousands of victims remain in doubt. In response to the disaster wrought by Morak, the Executive Yuan recently expedited special provisions for reconstruction. It provided 100 billion NT for post-disaster reconstruction. It estimated that reconstruction would take three years. Yesterday President Ma Ying-jeou personally promised survivors that the reconstruction of Hsiaoling Village would be completed during his term.

Just how badly did Typhoon Morakot damage Taiwan's economy? The DGBAS estimates that the impact of the disaster on the economy was not that great. Massive reconstruction projects will boost demand. They may even increase the economic growth rate. Financial chiefs are also optimistic in their predictions. The impact of the financial tsunami has passed. Taiwan's economy may recover by the fourth quarter.

Typhoon Morakot destroyed southern Taiwan. It is now badly scarred. For the victims, every time a typhoon strikes, both lives and property are threatened. Farmland, orchards, fish ponds were completely destroyed. Families were destroyed. These are burdens too heavy to bear. They are not something cold statistics can show. If post-disaster reconstruction proceeds rapidly, as President Ma hopes, that may also increase economic growth. That would of course be ideal. But disaster victims have many misgivings. They wonder how an incompetent ruling administration can possibly complete the work of reconstruction in a timely manner.

Indeed, the impact on the tourism industry in the south is more serious than outsiders can imagine. Tens of thousands of victims lost their livelihoods. Revenue from tourism has evaporated. Take one of the most important tourist attractions for example, Mount Alishan. No one has any idea when the minitrain will be reopened to traffic. The tourist attractions in the Paolai Hot Springs District in Kaohsiung have also been buried under earth and rock. These cannot be repaired any time soon. Mother Nature has lashed back with a vengeance. Future relocation and reconstruction will require new building sites and environmental impact assessments. These are not tasks that can be rushed.

Everyone knows that the key to success when it comes to reconstruction is determination. Past experiences have been disappointing. Ten years ago, during post-disaster reconstruction following the 9/21 Earthquake, many hill-tribe village relocation projects were delayed six to seven years. Victims were forced to live in pre-fab temporary housing. They endured countless typhoons and landslides. Some tribes relocated to new sites faced new landslide threats. The Ma administration estimates that reconstruction work will be completed within three years. But without a strong administrative team coordinating central and local government resources, no one really knows when it will be finished.

The Ma administration's ineptitude during initial disaster relief efforts has already disappointed the public. If reconstruction is carried out by the same bunch of insensitive bureaucrats oblivous to the people's suffering, the public will find it hard to be optimistic.

Asia's Four Tigers are in a race to recover from the global financial tsunami. The DGBAS has revised Taiwan's economic growth rate. But Taiwan's economic performance this year still lags behind South Korea's and Hong Kong's. It is only slightly better than Singapore's. Faced with fierce international competition and constant domestic disasters, we find it hard to be overly optimistic.

Typhoon Morakot has sent the Ma administration approval ratings into freefall. President Ma must summon up his revolutionary drive. He must demonstrate administrative competence. Only then can he restore public confidence. As long as the ruling administration remains incompetent and knows only how to apologize, no amount of reconstruction funds will raise Taiwan's economic growth rates.

中時電子報 新聞
中國時報 　2009.08.25
沒有執行力 那有成長率
本報訊

最近多項經濟指標明顯上揚，全球經濟似乎逐漸走出一九三○年代以來最嚴重的衰退。隨著國際景氣回溫，台灣的經濟逐漸走出谷底，主計處上周四調高台灣今年ＧＤＰ成長率為負四．○四％，若莫拉克災後重建計畫順利執行，可能進一步調高為負三．七五％。不過，對官方這項樂觀預估，我們卻毫無喜悅，因為，重建之路迢迢，數以萬計家破人亡的災民，還不知道未來的家園在那裡。

最近歐美主要國家的經濟指標陸續傳出捷報，例如，美國七月成屋銷售連續四個月增長，創下十年來最佳記錄；歐元區八月採購經理人指數意外勁揚；美、歐、日等國央行總裁上周五出席世界央行總裁年會時，露出了難得的笑容。亞洲新興國家第二季的成長大幅超越歐美國家，更跌破許多經濟學家的眼鏡。

最近《經濟學人》特別探討亞洲新興國家令人驚訝的「復甦」，認為亞洲新興國家復甦的腳步領先了歐美，可能與製造業景氣循環周期、亞洲各國政府大手筆財政振興方案、銀行體系相對受傷較輕微以及民間的高儲蓄率有關；未來更關鍵的是，亞洲各國的成長力道能否持久。

全球景氣逐漸回溫之際，台灣卻因莫拉克颱風帶來百年來最大的豪雨，山崩與土石流使得山河變色，數十萬災民生計陷入絕境。因應莫拉克帶來的災害，行政院日前火速通過重建特別條例，編列一千億元重建經費，預計三年內完成重建。馬英九總統日前當面向風災後倖存的小林村民保證，在他任內一定會完成小林村的重建。

這次莫拉克風災對於台灣經濟的衝擊究竟有多大？主計處評估，風災對經濟的衝擊並不大，龐大重建計畫將帶動各項需求，甚至還可能拉高經濟成長率。財經首長們亦樂觀預期，金融海嘯的衝擊已經過去了，台灣的經濟最快在第四季復甦。

這次南台灣在莫拉克的摧殘下，已經滿目瘡痍。對災民而言，每次颱風來襲，生命財產均飽受威脅，農田、果園、魚塭全毀與家破人亡都是生命中不可承受之重，這些都不是冰冷的統計數字所能呈現。災後重建如果能如馬總統所願迅速啟動，又能拉高經濟成長，那實在是太美好了。然而，災民們心中其實充滿疑慮，他們不知道無能的行政團隊，如何能迅速完成重建工作？

事實上，這次南部觀光產業受到的衝擊，超乎外界的想像，數萬災民們失去生計，觀光產業的收入也泡湯。以最重要的觀光景點阿里山為例，森林鐵道不知何時才能通車，而高雄寶來溫泉區等觀光景點也遭土石淹沒，短期內難以修復。大自然反撲力量如此強烈，未來所有的遷村與重建絕對必須重新選址規畫並做好環境影響評估，這些工作都不可能在倉促之下完成。

眾所周知，重建工作的成敗關鍵在於執行力，過去許多經驗卻是令人失望。十年前九二一的災後重建，許多山地部落遷村計畫一拖六、七年，災民被迫住在組合屋裡，不知歷經多少颱風與土石流的威脅；有些部落遷移到新址，竟也面臨土石流威脅。這回馬政府計畫在三年內完成重建工作，如果沒有強有力的執政團隊，充分整合中央與地方資源，沒有人知道何時才能真正完成。

其實，馬政府在第一時間救災不力，早已讓國人失望透頂，未來依舊由同一批無法苦民所苦的官僚來執行重建工作，實在很難令人有樂觀的期待。

在亞洲四小龍這一波復甦競賽中，主計處雖然上修台灣經濟成長率，不過台灣今年的表現仍不如南韓、香港，僅比新加坡好一點。面對國際激烈的競爭，加上國內的天災人禍不斷，我們根本沒有過度樂觀的本錢。

這次莫拉克風災使得馬政府聲望跌入谷底，此時馬總統唯有拿出改革的魄力，展現超強的執行力，才能挽回民眾的信心。畢竟，一個不斷說抱歉，一個無能的政府團隊，即使投入再多的重建經費，恐怕也難以拉高台灣的經濟成長率。