A Passing Grade on Typhoon Parma: But What About the Future?

A Passing Grade on Typhoon Parma: But What About the Future?
China Times News editorial (Taipei, Taiwan, ROC)
A Translation
October 6, 2009


The 8/8 Flood taught us some painful lessons. Typhoon Parma has the Ma administration on tenterhooks. It mobilized in advance. Central and local governments are on full alert. President Ma Ying-jeou has repeatedly stressed that his administration "prepared for any eventuality," and that its defenses are "tight as a drum." Judging by their performance over the past two days, disaster prevention measures by government at all levels have passed muster. Local governments and members of the public have for the most part cooperated by evacuating danger zones. The Ma administration's clueless and inept behavior during Typhoon Morakot is hopefully a thing of the past.

Typhoon Parma did not result in disaster. Nevertheless it forced officials and civilians in threatened areas to run around in circles. The Yilan region in particular bore the brunt of the storm. The county government made four different announcements regarding school closures before finally getting it right. The main reason was that Typhoon Parma's path was erratic. It was a "peculiar typhoon."

Typhoon Parma was so peculiar, American, Japanese and our own weather services all found it difficult to track. Neither its path nor the amount of rainfall could be accurately predicted. According to typhoon reports issued by our own Central Weather Bureau over the weekend, Parma was downgraded to a standard typhoon on October 2. The radius of the typhoon however, increased from 200 kilometers to 250 kilometers, expanding its sphere of influence.

After Typhoon Parma battered Taiwan, it was affected by Typhoon Melor in waters surrounding the Philippine Islands. Typhoon Melor drew Typhoon Parma toward the Bashi Channel, where it hovered for a time, leading to a "Fujiwara Effect." Melor repeatedly altered Parma's path. It caused Parma to make a 180 degree about face, from northeast to southwest. Weather services in the Philippines were even worried that Parma might draw Melor back, to batter the Philippines a second time.

Another factor affecting Parma was a "combined effect," leading to rainfall variations. Parma was clearly far to the south, in the Bashi Channel. Yet the heaviest rainfall was in Yilan, on the northern coast of Taiwan. The Bureau of Meteorology had to amend its forecast five times, a record in typhoon forecasting. Parma's strange behavior inspired experts to characterize it as the most difficult to forecast typhoon so far this year.

Under the impact of climate change, Taiwan has experienced many "peculiar typhoons" in recent years. Last year's Typhoon Sinlaku and Typhoon Kalmaegi were not super typhoons. But heavy rains led to disaster. Looking at the larger picture, the entire world faces dramatic climate change. In recent years some regions have received 50 or even 100 year record rainfalls. The Philippines, Vietnam, and Turkey have experienced major floods. Arid regions such as the Deccan Plateau in northern India have experienced major floods -- even after the conclusion of the rainy season. Hurricane Katrina, which struck the US in 2005, was a major disaster seldom seen in North America.

Not long ago, Nature Magazine published a study by a professor at the University of Pennsylvania, who said that the world is currently experiencing a once in a millennium "storm peak." Global warming has not increased not merely the frequency of storms, but also their strength. Mankind faces an angry planet, whose anger has yet to fully erupt.

Nature is cruel, and its wrath unpredictable. Weather forecasting and disaster prevention systems in the twenty-first century face an unexpected challenge. As for Taiwan, the threat of typhoons looms especially large. Nearby Guam is an infamous Pacific Ocean "Typhoon nest." Due to the earth's rotational effect, most typhoons generated in this nest head towards Taiwan. People are therefore increasingly concerned about the accuracy of typhoon weather forecasts.

The accuracy of Central Weather Bureau typhoon forecasts has long been in dispute. The CWB's explanations have seldom satisfied the public. The accuracy of its typhoon forecasts affects "typhoon holidays." If CWB reports are inaccurate, if the standards are unclear, local governments don't know whether to declare typhoon holidays. For years the sole criterion for typhoon holidays was wind strength. After years of urging from experts, it finally added rainfall volume, an even greater threat. Recently there have been calls to add landslide predictions forecasts. For mountain regions hard hit by mudslides, this is a necessary correction.

The government has been slow to invest in disaster prevention technology. For example since Typhoon Xangsane in 2000, it has become clear that rainfall is more and more often the cause of serious damage. But domestic rainfall measurement stations are too few and too unevenly distributed. Most stations are established by county and municipal governments. It was only early this year, that the CEPD approved one billion NT in funding for rainfall measurement station improvements, mainly in villages and towns. Increasing the density of rainfall measurement stations is long overdue.

The public has long been in the habit of criticizing the government for ineffectiveness in disaster prevention. But the public must increase its own understanding as well. For example, Typhoon Morakot finally forced people living in threatened areas to acknowledge the need for village relocation. Yet during Typhoon Parma some people in threatened areas still refused to leave. The government was forced to spend money and manpower helping them pile sandbags. Some mocked these efforts as useless. But if people don't know enough to look after themselves, what gives them the right to waste precious public resources?

The government received a passing grade during Typhoon Parma. But what about in the future? Natural disasters never sleep. Heaven's blessings are capricious. The blood and tears shed during natural disasters must be translated into lessons. They must be integrated into the system and into our lives. That is the only way to prepare for natural disasters.

中時電子報 新聞
中國時報 　2009.10.06
這次芭瑪颱風過關 但未來呢？
本報訊

經過八八風災的慘痛教訓，這次面對芭瑪颱風，馬政府上下繃緊神經，提早動員，從中央到縣市政府全面進入防颱備戰狀態，務求做到馬英九總統一再強調的「料敵從寬，禦敵從嚴」。從這兩天的結果看來，各級政府的防災動作還算到位，該撤離的危險區域，地方政府與民眾也多半能配合執行，馬政府終於不再像莫拉克颱風來襲時一般，全無章法，徹底失能。

不過，芭瑪雖未釀災，卻仍讓預警區內的政府及民眾手忙腳亂，尤其是首當其衝的宜蘭地區，為了是否停班停課，縣政府發布了四次新聞，才算全部搞定。主因就是，芭瑪行徑詭異，又是一個「怪颱」。

芭瑪之怪，讓美、日各國氣象單位都難以捉摸，它的路徑和雨量都「測不準」。根據我國中央氣象局上周末發布的颱風消息，芭瑪在十月二日減弱為中颱，但暴風半徑反而由二百公里增加到二百五十公里，影響範圍擴大。

而芭瑪侵台後，又受菲律賓海域上另一個強颱米勒的牽引、拉扯而在巴士海峽滯留踱步，徘徊不去，形成若有似無的「藤原效應」，一再影響芭瑪的路徑，使它一度出現由東北轉向西南的一八○度大轉變；而菲律賓氣象單位還擔心芭瑪是否會被米勒拉回去，二度侵菲。

另一個影響芭瑪的因素是「共伴效應」，主要反映在雨量變化，明明颱風遠在南邊的巴士海峽，但最大雨量落在宜蘭，氣象局連續上、下修正達五次之多，創歷年颱風預報僅見。這麼怪異的表現，使芭瑪被學者定義為今年至今最難預報的颱風。

在氣候變遷的影響下，台灣近年多次面臨「怪颱」，去年的辛樂克、卡玫基都不是強颱，但都因雨量超大而成災。放大範圍看，這幾年，全球都面臨劇烈氣候變異，動輒降下以五十年、甚至百年為頻率周期的大雨，菲律賓、越南、土耳其最近都出現大水災，連向來是乾旱地區的印度北部德干高原，都在雨季結束後出現大洪水，而二○○五年美國卡崔娜風災，更是北美洲少見的巨災。

不久前，《自然雜誌》刊登的一篇由美國賓州大學教授進行的研究指出，目前地球正處於千年一次的「風暴高峰期」，而全球暖化不但提高了風暴形成的頻率，也加驟其強度。人類面臨的是一個發怒的地球，而且怒氣顯然尚未完全爆發。

大地無情，天威難測，氣象預報與防災體系成為各國進入廿一世紀後一個始料未及的挑戰。對台灣而言，颱風的威脅尤其大；關島附近的太平洋海域是有名的「颱風窩」，因地球自轉效應，這個颱風窩生成的颱風，多會往台灣方向前進。因此國人愈來愈關心颱風氣象預報的準確與否。

但中央氣象局的颱風預報準頭，一直是一個爭議，氣象局的解釋和民眾的感受始終有極大落差。尤其，颱風預報準確與否，關係到放「颱風假」與否，如果氣象局報不準、標準不明，地方政府面對是否放颱風假時，就更感到為難。多年來，國內放颱風假的唯一標準是風力，學者呼籲多年後，總算加入威脅性更大的雨量，最近則出現應加入土石流預測的討論，對飽受土石流重創的山區而言，應是必要的修正。

在防災體系方面，政府對防災科技的整體投入與相關建置，仍慢了好幾拍。舉一例，從二○○○年的象神颱風開始，颱風因雨成災的趨勢就愈來愈明顯而劇烈，但國內的雨量測站不足、地點又分配不均，多是以縣市為設站規畫。直到今年初，經建會才通過十多億的經費，用於改善雨量測站設站問題，將落實到以鄉鎮為主，加強防災網格的密度。其實，這個工作早就應該進行了。

另一個需要指出的是，長久以來，社會習慣批評政府防災不力，但民眾的防災意識也要加強。譬如，莫拉克終於使危險地區的民眾認識到遷村的必要性。而在芭瑪颱風中，仍然有災區民眾不願撤離，政府只好出錢出力替他們堆沙包，但又有人站在旁邊譏諷「沒用啦」。自己不知保護自己，又憑什麼浪費社會國家資源呢？

這次面對芭瑪颱風，政府或許過關了，但未來呢？天災不會休止，天佑也不牢靠，歷次災難的血淚一定要化為教訓，落實到制度與生活中，才是防災之道。