Five Cities Election Battles, Retail and Wholesale

Five Cities Election Battles, Retail and WholesaleUnited Daily News editorial (Taipei, Taiwan, ROC)
A Translation
August 27, 2010

Internal divisions have appeared within the Green Camp over two mayoral races in southern Taiwan. But these divisions have not benefitted the Blue Camp. In fact the Blue Camp appears to have bogged down even in the two mayoral races in northern Taiwan. Some inside the KMT are concerned. If their candidates cannot increase their lead over the DPP by September, they had better be prepared for defeat. The Ma administration is proud of ECFA. Taiwan has experienced two consecutive quarters of double-digit economic growth. Therefore the low morale within the ruling party is surprising.

For the KMT, the chaos of the Five Cities Elections means public opinion has been hard to fathom. It also means the KMT has failed to generate any enthusiasm among the public. Therefore the Blue Camp has not gained as much advantage in the north as expected. Instead of complaining about voter indifference though, the KMT should reexamine its election strategy and ask if it has done enough to cultivate voter support. Sources within the party have revealed that the next round of campaign appeals will focus on cross-Strait and foreign affairs. These and other issues are the "Green Camp's Achilles Heel." The KMT will target Su Tseng-chang and Tsai Ing-wen, and hit them hard. Whether this tactic will work is uncertain, but it is worth exploring.

The Five Cities Elections can be regarded as a prelude to the 2012 Presidential Election. But basically they are local elections. Escalating the debate to the level of cross-Strait and foreign affairs may allow the KMT to check their opponents. But it will not necessarily allow the KMT to inspire a sense of urgency among its constituents. Su and Tsai both served as vice premier. Tsai Ing-wen is the chairman of the main opposition party. The Blue Camp can play their cross-Strait and foreign affairs cards. It can highlight the contradictions and weaknesses in the DPP candidates' election platforms. But in the mayoral elections, voters are more concerned about governance, expansion, and growth at the municipal level. If Su and Tsai can inspire people at the municipal level, voters may not care about their extremist views on cross-Strait and foreign affairs. After all, this is a mayoral election, not a presidential election.

Signing ECFA and improving cross-Strait relations is one of the Ma administration's crowning achievements. Follow-up economic effects can also be expected. But from a political perspective, after two years of setbacks, ECFA's marginal utility is close to exhausted. As the theme of the Five Cities Election, the issue is too old and tired. Besides, what inspires voters on Taiwan has never been glowing reports on the status quo, but shining visions of the future. From this perspective, no matter how much the Blue Camp may play up progress in cross-Strait relations, it is still only playing defense. The Green Camp can easily assume the offensive. It can easily claim that ECFA is merely a "pie in the sky," and will merely "increase the gap between rich and poor." The Ma administration's political achievements can be instantly transformed into public grievances. This is one of the cruel paradoxes of popular elections. It has proven true for the past 20 years, and there is no room for naivete.

By contrast, the DPP has treated the election as a local level campaign from day one. It never intended to make it a central government issue. It adopted a very different strategy. This is the advantage of being in the opposition. One need not lay out a larger framework. One need only zero in on weaknesses in the ruling party's governance. Doing so is enough to create a media effect and attract voter attention. Put simply, the KMT has launched a "wholesale war" at the central government level. The DPP meanwhile, is fighting a one on one "retail war" at the local government level. The entire nation is looking at these elections. But they are elections filled with local color. Who will emerge victorious? That will depend on the wisdom and adaptability of the two parties.

Given voter apathy, the KMT may need to alter its strategy. It may need to fight a "retail war." Only then can it narrow the distance between itself and local voters. The Blue Camp has always been less adept at offense than the Green Camp. It has always been less adept at spinning the issues. If its candidates blindly obey party leaders, they may find it even more difficul to underscore their individual merits. The most obvious example is Su Chih-fen's handling of the Number Six Naphtha Cracking Plant issue. The KMT watched helplessly as Green Camp apostate Yang Chui-hsing hijacked this "anti-business" issue. Clearly KMT candidates are sorely deficient in flexibility. Among the Blue Camp candidates, Jason Hu is is the most self-assured. This has much to do with his personal image. He is a bona fide expert in local retail sales.

There is a saying in American politics. All politics is local. It means one must meet the voters where one governs. One must speak the language they understand. One must implement policies they understand. One cannot say that the Five Cities Elections are not heating up. So why are voters so apathetic? The problem is candidates have yet to fully exploit the local level retail market. The ruling and opposition parties have yet to understand the needs and aspirations of their local constituents. They do not know what they should be selling. Yang Chiu-hsing left the DPP. If nothing else, he issued a bold challenge to the people of Kaohsiung. He offered voters a third way. Meanwhile, voters in the two cities of northern Taiwan have been presented with a surrogate for the presidential election. No one seems to know whether the candidates intend to complete their terms of office. The candidates are unwilling to promise they will not run off in the middle of their terms. No wonder voters are disaffected.

To overcome voter apathy, the KMT must change its one size fits all, wholesale level campaign strategy. It must be more flexible and responsive, closer to its local constituents. If it insists on campaigning on the basis of high-profile issues such as cross-Strait and foreign relations, it may well end up singing to an empty hall.

五都選舉的零售戰與批發戰
【聯合報╱社論】
2010.08.27 03:15 am

綠營南二都選局呈現分裂，藍營並未因此獲得漁利，似乎連北二都選情都陷入膠著。國民黨內有人憂心：若九月無法拉開差距，就得有「輸的準備」。正當馬政府自豪的ＥＣＦＡ箭在弦上，台灣接連兩季出現兩位數的經濟成長，而執政黨內部的鬥志卻如此低靡，令人驚訝。

對國民黨而言，五都選情混沌，顯示民意不易捉摸，也反映它在這場選舉尚未產生激發民眾熱情的議題，致使藍營在北二都民調看不出其原先期待的優勢。但與其怨嘆選民冷漠，國民黨更該檢討的是其選民經營與選戰策略。黨內人士透露，下一輪將針對兩岸、外交議題等「綠營罩門」，鎖定蘇貞昌、蔡英文兩人猛攻。此一戰術能否奏效，值得探討。

五都選舉雖可視為二Ｏ一二大選的前哨戰，但基本上，這畢竟是一場地方選舉，把攻防主調拉高到外交和兩岸層次，雖有制敵作用，卻未必能喚起選民的切身感。蘇、蔡曾任正副閣揆，蔡英文又身為在野黨主席，藍軍主打兩岸和外交固能凸顯兩人的矛盾及弱點；唯在市長選舉，選民更關切的毋寧是城市的經營、建設和發展，若蘇、蔡能在市政上提出打動人心的訴求，選民或許不會在意他們在兩岸、外交上的偏執。畢竟，這是在選市長，不是在選總統。

簽署ＥＣＦＡ與兩岸關係改善是馬政府的重要政績，後續經濟效應也可期待；但從政治上看，經過兩年周折，其邊際效用已接近「利多出盡」。作為五都選戰的主軸，這個議題稍嫌老舊，能量也不夠充沛。何況，台灣選舉最能驅動選民的因素，一向不是展示現狀的美好，而是強調人們想像的匱乏。從這點看，無論藍營如何標榜兩岸關係的進展，都只是守勢；綠營只要攻擊說「看得見、吃不到」、「會擴大貧富差距」，馬政府的「政績」也有可能立刻被翻寫「民怨」。這是選舉的吊詭和殘酷，二十餘年來屢試不爽，沒有天真以待的餘地。

相對的，民進黨一開始就把選戰定調為地方選舉，無意在中央議題上纏殺，則是截然不同的選擇。這正是在野黨的便利：不必在大架構上鋪陳，只要針對執政黨弱處猛政，就能製造媒體效果引起選民注意。簡單地說，國民黨著重的是從中央發動的「批發戰」，民進黨則強調單打獨鬥的「零售戰」；這在具有全國觀瞻、卻更富地方色彩的選戰中，誰將勝出，考驗兩黨的智慧和應變。

以目前選情偏冷看，國民黨恐怕有必要朝「零售戰」的方向調整，才能拉近和地方選民的距離感。藍軍候選人的攻擊性一向不如綠營，議題塑造能力也較弱，若一味聽命黨中央主導，個人形象更不易突出。最明顯的例子是，蘇治芬處理六輕的「反商」議題，竟是被從綠營出走的楊秋興一把搶走，可見國民黨候選人作戰的機動性確實相形見絀。這次五都選舉，藍營以胡志強的選情最穩，當然跟他個人形象最為自主有關；在面對地方，他是個不折不扣的零售專家。

美國政治上有句俗話：一切政治都是鄉土的。意即，你在哪裡從政，你得直接面對那裡的選民，說他們聽得懂的話，做他們能理解的事。五都選舉打到今天，表面溫度不能說不高，但為何燒不起選民的熱情？問題就在地方的零售市場還沒有被充分開發，或者朝野兩黨都仍未充分了解地方民眾的需求和渴望，不知道要把什麼東西賣給他們。楊秋興出走，至少對大高雄民眾的口味作了一次大膽的挑戰，讓選民有第三品牌可以挑選。但北二都選民面對的，卻更像是一場總統大選的替代戰役，沒有人知道當選人會不會做完任期，候選人也不願保證不會半途落跑，這正是民眾感到索然無味之處。

要打破冰冷選情，國民黨需要調整其統包、批發式的戰略，才能更靈活因應，並貼近地方民眾。一味高調主打兩岸外交議題，怕是曲高和寡。