Mainland China's Paradox: The More Developed the Economy, the More Serious the Political Crisis

Mainland China's Paradox: The More Developed the Economy, the More Serious the Political Crisis
United Daily News editorial (Taipei, Taiwan, ROC)
A Translation
October 21, 2010

Executive Summary: The Fifth Plenary Session of the 17th Party Congress has adjourned. No major political reform programs emerged. The quest for stability remains the ultimate concern of the Chinese Communist Party. This does not mean that demands for political reform can be postponed, or that the people's voices can be ignored. Observers believe Beijing is merely shelving them, with the intention of dealing with them later. They do not believe Beijing is an ostrich burying its head in the sand. They do not believe Beijing will allow the situation to deteriorate. Recently rumors have emerged that President Hu Jintao intends to promote a "socialist two-party system." If true, Beijing has already broken out of its mental box. The rumor may be true, or it may be false. Either way, Mainland China's political reform has reached a watershed. The Hu-Wen regime knows only too well that "defying the will of the people is ultimately a dead end."

Full Text below:

The Fifth Plenary Session of the 17th Party Congress has adjourned. No major political reform programs emerged. The quest for stability remains the ultimate concern of the Chinese Communist Party. This does not mean that demands for political reform can be postponed, or that the people's voices can be ignored. Observers believe Beijing is merely shelving them, with the intention of dealing with them later. They do not believe Beijing is an ostrich burying its head in the sand. They do not believe Beijing will allow the situation to deteriorate.

One reason for their belief is Wen Jiabao, who recently said, "Defying the will of the people is ultimately a dead end." The words "dead end" reveal that the Chinese Communist Party is fully aware of the problem. On the other hand, during an interview with a Western reporter, Wen mentioned death in another context. He said, "come rain or come shine, we will not give up until we are dead." This underscores the difficulty of political reform.

These invocations of the word "dead" or "death," offer an overview of political reform on the mainland. On the one hand, Beijing is aware that if it fails to undertake reform, it will eventually reach a dead end. On the other hand, Beijing is aware of the difficulty of reform, and how slim the chances for successful reform are. But political reform is no less urgent merely because real world difficulties abound. Especially when the key reason for the Chinese Communist Party's difficulties is its own procrastination.

Political reform is urgent. Consider an historical precedent. As Soviet President Mikhail Gorbachev noted in his "Message to Compatriots in the Soviet Union," "When I became head of state (in 1985) the nation was clearly in a state of crisis. The reasons were obvious. Society, shackled by a bureaucratic command system, was close to suffocation. Society was forced to serve ideology. Society was forced to bear the burden of the arms race, and was already exhausted. Partial reform measures had failed. We could no longer live like this. We had to fundamentally change everything." Isn't Gorbachev's tone similar to that of Wen Jiabao?

Conditions in the Soviet Union just before its implosion cannot be compared to conditions on the Mainland today. But the core issue remains the same. The nation is under the control of a single party dictatorship which dominates society and monopolizes its resources. Mainland China's political system has undergone three decades of "reform and liberalization." The CCP is now caught in a cycle from which it cannot escape. The more it implements "reform and liberalization," the more corruption spreads, and the greater the public's perceived sense of deprivation. As a result, reform becomes ever more threatening and ever more difficult. As a result, even though the CCP is aware of the need for reform, partial reform efforts invariably end in failure. Intellectuals such as Liu Xiaobo say "we can not go on like this." Wen Jiabao of course understands that "without guarantees of political reform, the results of economic reform may be lost."

Reform and liberalization means forsaking class struggle and moving toward "economic development as the central value." It makes no difference whether the society is referred to as socialist or capitalist. What matters is liberating the productivity of the people and society. But one-party dictatorship has concentrated the wealth produced in the hands of those in power -- central and local level government officials. Government officials and business interests have monopolized most of the benefits. Economic growth fattens the pocketbooks of the rich and the powerful. Many party officials live lives of unbridled decadence. Compare this to the past. Mao Zedong's Great Leap Forward and class struggle impoverished the nation, to the point where everyone was utterly destitute. Indignation and discontent were widespread. But if one compares yesterday's universal suffering, with today's unequal suffering. Inequality may grate on people's emotions even more than suffering. As a result, the greater the economic development, the greater the social unrest.

The Fifth Plenary Session is aware of the problem of inequality. Discussions of the "ten two five plan" have therefore concentrated on narrowing the income gap, the urban vs. rural gap, the east vs. west gap, and the rich vs. poor gap. The Fifth Plenary Session touts "inclusive growth." It understands that "unless one divides the pie evenly, it will be impossible to bake a bigger pie." The problem is not merely inequality. Inequality is merely a material issue. The problem involves two issues. One is corruption. The CCP has already experienced a serious loss of public trust. The moral foundation of its rule is built on quicksand. The other is dictatorship. The CCP remains a one-party dictatorship. This democratic dictatorship is guilty of uncontrolled corruption. It exploits the public. It deprives them of their rights. The public is unable to seek redress. Therefore on the surface, Mainland China's economy appears increasingly prosperous. But a closer look reveals that the greater the economic development, the more severe the political and social crises. Hence, Wen Jiabao's references to death.

Recently rumors have emerged that President Hu Jintao intends to promote a "socialist two-party system." If true, Beijing has already broken out of its mental box. The rumor may be true, or it may be false. Either way, Mainland China's political reform has reached a watershed. The Hu-Wen regime knows only too well that "defying the will of the people is ultimately a dead end."

中國弔詭：經濟愈發展 政治危機愈嚴重
【聯合報╱社論】
2010.10.21 01:33 am

中共的十七大五中全會閉幕了，未見任何具有力度的政治改革方案，求穩仍是中國共產黨的終極關切。但這並不意味政治改革的需求可以被拖滯，人民的呼聲可以被漠視；有些觀察者相信，北京只是暫時擱著、容後徐圖，而不是鴕鳥鑽沙，聽任情勢繼續惡化。

相信的理由之一來自於溫家寶，溫家寶才說過，「違背人民的意志，最終只會是死路一條」，「死路」兩字刻劃出了中共對於這個問題的認識非常清醒，然而，他接受西方媒體專訪時所說的另一個「死」字：「風雨無阻，至死方休」，卻也點出了政改的艱險與困難。

兩個「死」字畫出了大陸政改的輪廓，在此端已認知到再不改則死路一條，另一邊卻又感到現實中改革希望的困頓與渺茫。然而，政改的迫切性不能因為現實上的困難，特別是這個困難的核心源自於中共本身，就一再滯後。

政改的迫切性不妨藉蘇聯瓦解時蘇聯總統戈巴契夫的「告蘇聯同胞書」得到某種歷史的參照，戈巴契夫說：「我當上國家元首時（一九八五年）就已經很清楚：國家情況不妙。」「原因已清晰可見，社會在官僚指令體制的束縛之下近於窒息，它注定為意識形態服務，注定背負軍備競賽的重擔，已經筋疲力盡。」「所有的局部改革都以失敗告終……，不能再這樣生活下去了，應從根本上改變一切。」昔戈巴契夫的口氣是否與今溫家寶的口氣有幾分神似？

蘇聯解體前的情況，與當今大陸不能相提並論，但核心問題並無二致，亦即：國家由單一政黨專政掌控，支配社會中的全部或絕大多數資源。這種政治體制放在已走了三十年「改革開放」路子的中國，已然形成了一個難以自拔的迴圈，即愈「改革開放」反倒愈加腐敗，社會的相對剝奪感亦愈增，因而也就愈不敢改革且愈難改革；於是，中共雖認知到必須改革，但一切局部的改革，仍然「以失敗告終」，讓像劉曉波這樣的知識份子感到「不能再這樣下去了」，當然也讓溫家寶體察到「沒有政治體制改革的保障，經濟體制改革的成果就要得而復失」。

「改革開放」就是放棄「以階級鬥爭為綱」，走向「以經濟建設為中心」，不管姓社姓資，由此釋放了人民與社會的生產力；但一黨專政的體制卻導致生產的利益由掌有權力的中央到地方基層官員，以及與官員結合的特權企業攫奪大半，經濟增長大多數進了權貴集團的荷包裡，許多黨官的生活已至驕奢淫佚的地步。往前頭對照，毛澤東縱使搞鬥爭與大躍進弄得全國「一窮二白」，固亦天怒人怨，但那個年頭「患寡」，如今卻是「患不均」，「不均」的矛盾恐遠甚於「寡」。於是，經濟愈發展，社會愈不安定。

五中全會意識到「不均」之弊，於是在討論審議的「十二五規畫」裡，集中力氣於縮小收入差距、城鄉差距、東西差距與貧富差距，標舉「包容性增長」，理解到「不把蛋糕切好，就做不大蛋糕」；但問題並非只是「不均」，「不均」仍在唯物的層次上討論問題，問題還有兩層：一層是，由於腐化，中共在統治的精神面貌上已嚴重地失去人民對它的信任與信仰，統治的道德基礎已如建立在流沙之上。另一層是，繼續保持本質為一黨專政的人民民主專政，就是繼續讓腐敗不受監督，並繼續讓人民處於被宰割的處境上，其權利永恆地被剝削，且無平反與伸冤的地方。因而，從表面上看，中國是經濟愈加發展；但往內裡看，卻是經濟愈加發展，政治危機及社會危機愈加嚴重。此即前述兩個「死」字的源起。

最近，有一匿名信傳聞胡錦濤有意推動「社會主義兩黨制」，此說若真，則北京似已跳出思維窠臼；但不論真假，中國大陸的政治改革已到了歷史的渡口，胡溫體制應知：「違背人民意志，最終只會是死路一條。」