Obama at the Crossroads: The Rise and Fall of the United States

Obama at the Crossroads:
The Rise and Fall of the United States
United Daily News editorial (Taipei, Taiwan, ROC)
January 22, 2013

Summary: The U.S. Presidential Inauguration a coronation of the world's most powerful individual. But this position is not an easy one to fill. President Obama knows the next four years will be strewn with obstacles. He knows this because he has filled this position for the past four years. As an old friend of his put it, he is more confident than he was four years ago. But he is also more isolated than he was four years ago, and he is black and blue all over.

Full text below:

The U.S. Presidential Inauguration a coronation of the world's most powerful individual. But this position is not an easy one to fill. President Obama knows the next four years will be strewn with obstacles. He knows this because he has filled this position for the past four years. As an old friend of his put it, he is more confident than he was four years ago. But he is also more isolated than he was four years ago, and he is black and blue all over.

Only 16 presidents in the history of the United States have ever won a second term. The voters have given him a tremendous vote of confidence. But they have also presented him with an enormous challenge. This is especially true for Obama. He is America's first black president. He made history. His first Inaugural Address, all about "hope and change," was especially inspiring.

He will be inaugurated yet again. But this time the luster is off his halo. No matter how eloquent Obama's second Inaugural Address might be, it will befall the same fate as those delivered by Bill Clinton and George W. Bush. No one remembers their second Inaugural Addresses either. The number of people attending the inauguration has also fallen, from 1.8 million 500,000. As we can see, Obama fever has cooled substantially

When Obama steps down four years from now, he will leave behind a record of achievements. That is something Obama has been concerned about lately. He invited a number of historians to the White House for dinner, before his swearing in. He wants to know how future historians will judge him.

Like Taiwan, the United States is plagued by ruling vs. opposition party bickering. The problem is more serious than in the past. During Obama's first term, he boasted that he would end petty grievances. But the Republicans became increasingly extreme. They and Obama became increasingly polarized. During last year's election, Obama was severely criticized by his opponents. Following the election, he had no chance to heal. He forced the Republicans to make concessions on fiscal cliff policy. Now he is pushing for tougher gun control laws.

Republican hawks are ascendant. They are determined to limit the debt ceiling, as well as make spending cuts, in order to teach Obama a lesson. Some in the Democratic Party have also argued that Obama speech must not be a half-hearted appeal to solidarity. After all, the Democrats now have public support. They must underscore the differences between themselves and the opposition GOP. But most people think the inauguration should be an occasion for smoothing over partisan differences and consolidating a national consensus. The president is not the president of a political party. The president is the president of the entire nation. Obama's speech should reflect an atmosphere of solidarity.

This is what Taiwan lacks. Elections on Taiwan are perceived as instances of "winner takes all" and "the devil take the hindmost." As a result, the opposition party has no desire to attend the presidential inauguration. It also makes it difficult to heal the grudges from previous elections.

Obama is said to be studying his hero, Abraham Lincoln. One hundred and fifty years ago, during Lincoln's second term inauguration, the American Civil War raged. Lincoln spoke of binding the nation's wounds. Today, the United States faces challenges similar to those in the wake of the Civil War. The two sides remain at loggerheads. Only ruling and opposition party cooperation can enable to nation to cope.

The ruling and opposition parties must cooperate because the United States faces daunting challenges. The United States faces no immediate crisis. But the long-term crisis is unprecedented. America is wracked periodically by deficit battles between the ruling and opposition parties. This shows that Obama's governance has considerable room for improvement. The direct result is the decline in America's international reputation. Its allies fear that the United States' promises cannot be fulfilled. Its enemies search for weaknesses in its armor, at home and abroad. They are waiting for an opportunity to make their move. The challengers are testing America's bottom line.

There has never been a time like now. American power is on the wane. This is having a huge global impact. Prior to the 19th century, the United States was relatively isolated. It had no quarrels with other nations. But ever since the beginning of the 20th century, America has repeatedly challenged other nations the world over. The United States has behaved in an increasingly hawkish manner, leading to a century of global hegemony. Today, the United States must recognize that it is no longer is the sole global hegemon. Mainland China's economic strength will overtake the United States' in 2017. Europe and Japan are not what they used to be. Only America still commands deference. Obama does not want historians to record that he was the president who presided over the end of American hegemony.

But if Obama acts rashly, his term may well be characterized just that way. This is not because of his policies, but because of outside circumstances. Such developments are often beyond the control of the individual. For example, President George W. Bush's legacy will be all about the 9/11 terrorist attacks. Obama's legacy will be determined by the following two circumstances.

The first is the situation in the Middle East. Iran is developing nuclear weapons. Israel is on the verge of striking out. The increasingly hawkish Israeli Government may take countermeasures. Obama may face war with Iran. This will not merely affect the global energy supply and America's economic recovery. It also risks nuclear war.

The second is the situation in East Asia. The Diaoyutai Islands sovereignty dispute between Japan and Mainland China is reminiscent of the dispute between Israel and the Muslim world. The United States is offering one-sided support to Japan. It is underestimating nationalism on Mainland China and Taiwan. This has forced Mainland China to put the United States on its enemies list. It also makes Taipei-Washington relations and cross-Strait relations highly volatile.

As an ally of the United States, we hope President Obama's second term is a success. But as a member of the international community, we cannot help worring about the next four years. The path is strewn with obstacles. How will Obama respond to domestic and foreign challenges and to his place in history? Only he can decide.

歐巴馬站在美國興衰的歷史關口
【聯合報╱社論】
2013.01.22 03:05 am

美國總統就職典禮，就像替全世界最有權力的人加冕，但是這個職位並不好做；歐巴馬總統非常清楚，未來四年充滿困難險阻，因為這個工作他已經做了四年。誠如他的老朋友所形容的，比起四年前，他更自信，但也更孤立，已是遍體鱗傷。

美國歷史上只有十六位總統曾經連任過，這是選民對他們莫大的信任，但是也構成他們莫大的挑戰；對歐巴馬尤其如此，他是第一位黑人總統，創造了歷史，他的第一任就職演說「希望與改變」，更是激勵人心。

此次就職，雖然還是他，但歷史光環已減，第二任就職演說，即使歐巴馬再雄辯滔滔，也會落入前任柯林頓、小布希總統一樣命運，沒有人記得他們的第二任就職演說，從參與就職典禮的人數，自一百八十萬銳減為五十萬，可見到期待的熱度已經退燒。

他四年卸任後，必須留下政績，而這也是歐巴馬近日非常在意的，在宣誓就職前，他已經邀請多位歷史學者赴白宮餐敘，希望了解史家將來會怎樣評價他。

像台灣一樣，美國如今也是朝野對立，而且比過去更嚴重，歐巴馬在第一任開始時，宣稱要融合歧見，但是隨著共和黨越來越極端，歐巴馬也越來越對抗，去年選舉期間，他就猛烈批評對手，選後還來不及療傷，逼共和黨在財政懸崖上讓步，現在又加上強硬推出槍枝管制法案。

共和黨目前主戰派抬頭，認為一定要在舉債上限，以及削減支出上，給歐巴馬好看，而民主黨也有人主張，歐巴馬演說中不應該和稀泥呼籲團結，既然自己有最新民意，就要明確點出自己與在野黨的不同，但是更多人認為就職典禮是凝塑全國共識的場合，總統不是任何黨派的總統，而是全國人民的總統，歐巴馬的演講中應該反映出團結的氣氛。

我們認為這正是台灣所缺乏的，選舉所帶來的成王敗寇觀念，讓在野黨不願意出席總統就職典禮，也讓台灣歷次選舉恩怨不易癒合。

歐巴馬據說會學習他的英雄林肯總統，在一百五十年前的第二任就職典禮上，針對南北內戰所撕裂的美國，呼籲「包紮國家的傷口」，此刻美國所面對的挑戰，比起內戰之後，不遑多讓，只有朝野兩黨合作，才能夠應付。

朝野需要合作，是因為美國正潛伏著險峻的挑戰，現在美國雖然沒有立即的危機，但長遠的危機是空前的，時時出現的財政赤字與朝野惡鬥，這都反映出歐巴馬治理未臻善境，直接造成國際聲望下跌，盟國擔心美國的承諾、無法實現，敵人則會尋找國內外漏洞、伺機攻擊，而挑戰者利用不同時空、來測試底線。

從來沒有一個時刻，像現在一樣，美國國力是在下跌中的，而且造成巨大的全球影響。在十九世紀之前，美國相對孤立，與世無爭，但廿世紀初以來，一次又一次全球挑戰，美國一再以更強健的方式回應，建立了一世紀的全球霸權。如今，美國則必須認清，自己已經不再是全球唯一霸主，中國的經濟實力會在二○一七年超越美國，歐洲與日本也不像過去，唯美國是從，歐巴馬絕不希望在自己卸任時，被史家認定為失去美國霸權的總統。

但是歐巴馬如果不謹慎因應，很可能他的任內，會落入上述的評價，這不是因為他的政策做了甚麼，而是因為外界突發事件，往往不是以個人意志為轉移的，就像小布希的總統評價，受到九一一恐怖攻擊事件所主導，而歐巴馬的端看未來兩個事件的變化所決定。

一是中東局勢，伊朗的核武發展，即將逼近以色列所稱的臨界點，越來越鷹派的以色列政府，會採取甚麼對策，歐巴馬將面臨與伊朗開戰的關頭，不僅會牽動全球能源供應與經濟復甦，更有核戰的風險。

二是在東亞，日本與中國大陸的釣魚台主權爭議，就像對以色列一樣，美國目前一邊倒的支持日本，低估中國大陸與台灣的民族主義，這讓中國開始把美國列入假想敵，也使得台美關係與兩岸關係，進入動盪不安的局面。

做為美國的友邦，我們期望歐巴馬總統的第二任，成功順利；但是做為國際社會的一份子，我們也不免憂心他的未來四年，充滿著險阻。歐巴馬要如何因應國內與國外的挑戰，他的歷史定位，只有他自己可以決定。