One More Blue Seat: No Thanks to Ma Ying-jeou

One More Blue Seat: No Thanks to Ma Ying-jeou
United Daily News editorial (Taipei, Taiwan, ROC)
A Translation
January 27, 2013

Summary: KMT candidate Yen Kuan-hen won a hard-fought battle in the Legislative By-Election for Taichung. His win has unexpectedly given the Blue camp an additional seat in the Legislative Yuan. It has also halted the Green Camp offensive in Chiayi and Tainan. This battle has enabled Yen Ching-piao to complete a "from father to son" turnover of the family business, and to breathe a sigh of relief. But Ma Ying-jeou and the Blue camp leadership have little cause to celebrate. They must remain vigilant and concerned.

Full text below:

KMT candidate Yen Kuan-hen won a hard-fought battle in the Legislative By-Election for Taichung. His win has unexpectedly given the Blue camp an additional seat in the Legislative Yuan. It has also halted the Green Camp offensive in Chiayi and Tainan. This battle has enabled Yen Ching-piao to complete a "from father to son" turnover of the family business, and to breathe a sigh of relief. But Ma Ying-jeou and the Blue camp leadership have little cause to celebrate. They must remain vigilant and concerned.

Yesterday the ballots were counted. The process was filled with tension. Yan Kuan-hen and his opponent Chen Shi-kai repeatedly traded places. The gap between the two never exceeded a thousand votes. Die-hard supporters held a vigil at their Shalu campaign headquarters. In the end, the came back and won by just over one thousand votes. The ballot counting process was unusually tense. What flashed through Ma Ying-jeou's mind as the process unfolded? One cannot help but wonder.

From any perspective, this was a critical election. This was essentially a local level legislative by-election. But it was elevated to the level of "a message for President Ma." On the stage, Yen and his son played out a familiar drama -- "a son does battle on behalf of his father." In the orchestra pit, the orchestra provided accompaniment, in the form of ruling vs. opposition wrangling. One aspect was particularly odd. The Green camp saw Ma Ying-jeou as its primary target. But the Yen family explicitly asked Ma to keep his distance. Therefore from start to finish, Ma never appeared at a single Yen campaign rally. The Green camp mobilized every one of its party princes., But the Blue camp mobilzed only Wang Jin-pyng, Eric Chu, and Jason Hu. Ma Ying-jeou was relegated to the role of "stealth chairman."

Recall last January's legislative elections. Yen Ching-piao received over 118,000 votes, and trounced his opponent by a margin of nearly 40,000 votes. One year later, Yen Kuan-hen won by a mere 1000 votes, and the campaign was a nail-biter. The difference was dramatic. Yen Ching-piao had no party affiliation. His political support was the result of years of local service and contacts among local religious leaders. Yet in one short month, he came under such a serious threat. The DPP's recuperative powers must never be underestimated. Consider party rivalry. Ignore  for the moment such personal factors as the Yen family father and son relationship. Ignore the fact that by-election turnouts tend to be low. Voters used their ballots to express dissatisfaction with the Ma administration. The signs were obvious, and cannot be ignored. Slow economic growth and corruption scandals in the Nantou and Changhua county governments undermined the Blue camp image. The Pension Reform controversy undermined core support from veterans, civil servants, and public school teachers. Rightly or wrongly, voters used the election to settle scores.

Ma Ying-jeou's bid for reelection as KMT party chairman drew fire from his own comrades. He became an "absentee president." He is clearly becoming more and more of a lame duck. This must be handled judiciously and decisively, with an iron fist, as soon as possible. He must restore his prestige. Otherwise he will find it impossible to get anything done during the remaining three years of his term. Consider the recent by-election. Was the KMT lending its banner to Yen Kuan-hen? Or was it using the opportunity to cultivate grass roots support? If it wasn't, then the victory means little. It will merely confuse those who cast their ballots for candidates flying the Blue camp banner.

Consider the DPP. Had it won this battle, Taichung would have an equal number of Blue and Green legislative seats. The Blue vs. Green battlefront would have shifted to Taichung. Fortunately for the Blue camp, it was a "Bridge Too Far." Green camp momentum, nevertheless, was impressive. It forced people to stop and stare. The Green camp launched "hate tactics." These tactics successfully diminished Blue camp supporters' desire to vote. Green camp support has increased. By how much? That is hard to tell. Small scale local elections are susceptible to such extremist tactics. But they could provoke a backlash in larger scale elections. The DPP has often experienced such setbacks. This must be be understood. We need not harp on it.

Did the Blue camp help Yen Ching-piao during this by-election? Or did Yen Kuan-hen help the KMT win another seat? Cause and effect are deeply intertwined and difficult to discern. The important point is not that the KMT has another seat in the Legislative Yuan. The important point is that the Blue camp line of defense in Taichung City has not been breached. But the held because of Yen Ching-piao's underlying strength, not because of the KMT's mobilization.

People burdened this by-election with too many irrelevant symbols and metaphors. They include the Yen family "son doing battle on behalf of his father," Chairman Ma's absence during the campaign, and the DPP's high-profile "raging citizens" protest marches. The process may have be exciting. But the results did nothing to advance democracy or partisan politics. The good thing about this election was that Yen Kuan-hen won. But what if he had lost? The loss would have been attributed to President Ma, to his failure to win the hearts and minds of the people. No one would have concluded that the public had grown tired of Yen Ching-piao. Yen Kuan-hen won by a narrow margin. This can only be attributed to Yen Ching-piao, who worked long and hard to cultivate grass roots support. This support trumped any local level strategic impact. The candidate's reputation and background were not the issue. Cause and effect for politics on Taiwan have long been reversed. This is hardly the first time this has happened.

The Blue camp may have one more seat in the legislature. But it is hard to consider this a victory. Chairman Ma remained invisible during the election. How could he possibly have contributed to the victory?

藍增一席 馬英九卻無功可慶
【聯合報╱社論】
2013.01.27

顏寬恒披藍袍艱苦打贏台中立委補選之役，使藍軍在國會意外多了一席，同時斬斷了綠營將決戰陣線從嘉南推向台中的攻勢。但這次戰役，就算能使顏清標為「子繼父業」放下心中的大石頭，對馬英九和他領導的藍軍而言，恐怕談不上勝利的喜悅，而是警惕與驚心居多。

昨天的開票過程，可謂步步驚險。顏寬恒和對手陳世凱自始即在千百票的差距內拉鋸，且處於落後狀態的時候居多；最後，靠著沙鹿大本營的死忠支持，才得以千餘票的差距翻盤取勝。在觀看如此緊繃的開票過程時，馬英九腦海裡閃過的感想是什麼，不禁令人好奇。

從任何角度看，這都是一場極其微妙的選舉。本質上，這是一場區域立委的補選，卻被拉升到最高等級的「教訓馬總統」的意義；形式上，台上演的是顏氏父子「代父出征」的傳統戲碼，場邊配樂卻是高亢的「朝野對決」唱腔。尤其詭異的是，被綠營當成主打對象的馬英九，卻因顏家刻意要求「保持距離」，從頭到尾沒有現身輔選現場的餘地。當綠營天王全員出動，藍營卻是由王金平、朱立倫、胡志強上陣代打，馬英九只能選擇當「隱形的主席」。

回看去年元月的立委選舉，顏清標在此選區以十一萬八千多票大贏對手將近四萬票；一年後，顏寬恒卻僅一千多票驚險勝出，選情變化不可謂不劇烈。無黨籍的顏清標，靠著長年的地方服務和宗教人脈打下的根基，竟在短短一個月遭到嚴重威脅，民進黨的造勢能力確不可低估。從政黨競爭的跨度看，扣除顏家父子個人因素及補選投票率低的常態因素，選民藉選票發洩對馬政府的不滿則痕跡斑斑，不可輕忽。包括經濟成長緩慢，南投、彰化的縣府弊案影響藍營形象，年金改革爭議動搖軍公教基本盤，是是非非，選民都藉此次選舉算了總帳。

對照馬英九為連任主席之事遭到黨內同志砲火，他在這次補選變成「缺席主席」，顯示他的「跛鴨」處境有擴大之勢。若不妥慎處理，儘速展現決策鐵腕挽回威望，他剩餘的三年多任期只會局面日蹙，難有作為。即以這次補選而論，如果國民黨只是純粹「借牌」供顏寬恒使用，而不是藉機在這個長期淪陷地區耕耘收復；那麼，勝這一場其實意義不大，反而會讓支持者對藍軍的標誌認同產生混亂。

就民進黨而言，若拿下這一戰，即可將台中市藍綠立委席次扳成平手，將藍綠決戰陣線殺進台中；最後雖功敗垂成，但氣勢不凡，令人刮目。退一步看，綠營發動「仇恨戰術」，成功催出綠營鐵票，也削弱了藍營群眾的投票意志；但綠營基本面是否擴大，效果其實尚難斷言。畢竟，在小規模選舉易於奏效的極端手段，遇到大型選舉反而可能產生後座力；民進黨經驗多端，對此應了然於心，毋需我們贅言。

這場補選，究竟是藍軍幫顏清標打了一仗？或者是顏寬恒幫國民黨奪下一席？由於因果交錯糾纏，已難以釐清。重要的，並不是國民黨在立法院多了一席，而是藍軍在台中市海線的防線沒有被攻破；但能守住這關，靠的是顏清標的實力，而不是國民黨的動員。

總括而言，這場補選充滿了太多不協調的符號和隱喻：從顏家的代父出征、借袍上陣，到馬主席的缺席輔選，乃至民進黨的高調火大，雖然過程精采有餘，但從其結果卻無法讀出民主或政黨政治的進步意義。試想，這場選舉所幸是顏寬恒勝出，如果輸了，必定歸咎於馬總統政績不獲人心，而不是民眾厭棄顏清標的作為；而顏寬恒險勝，也只能歸功顏清標地方耕耘績效深厚，及壓低層次的戰略奏效，而不是因為人選眾望所歸。台灣政治的邏輯糾纏與錯因倒果，何止卡在這一役？

藍軍雖在國會多了一席，卻很難歡呼稱勝。在選戰過程中保持隱形的馬主席，又如何有功可慶？