Asia Must Take Mainland China's Rise More Seriously

Asia Must Take Mainland China's Rise More Seriously
China Times editorial (Taipei, Taiwan, Republic of China)
A Translation
April 29, 2014

Summary: The Chinese mainland has risen. The situation in Asia is bound to undergo gradual but fundamental changes. The governments of the United States, Mainland China, and other neigbors, including Taiwan, must consider their responses. How can they create a new relationship conducive to the interests of everyone. The US and China need not to return to Cold War era containment. They can cooperate and coexist amidst competitive wrangling. Obama has completed his visit to Asia. It is time the affected parties ponder the issues.

Full text below:

U.S. President Barack Obama is conducting a major tour of Asia. He has visited Japan, South Korea, Malaysia, and the Philippines. He is putting on a major diplomatic show. In his manner and his words, he is seeking to underscore the importance of the Asian-Pacific region to the US government. He is saying that the US government still maintains considerable influence in the region. Nevertheless, the situation has obviously changed.

The visit may be eventful and exciting. But behind Obama's visit to Asia, is a record of lackluster diplomatic achievements. US global influence has declined. In the past the US government could rely on its political, economic, and military might to exert a major influence on global affairs. But in recent years the situation has changed. Economic decline has led to huge cuts in US military and diplomatic budgets. The public is weary of foreign wars, The US government can no longer play the role of world policeman.

Consider the many international disputes in the world today. The US government can deal with them. But only with help from foreign governments. Since taking office, Obama has offered no grand strategy for US foreign policy. Instead, his priority was to pull out of Iraq and Afghanistan. The US government has no solution for long-simmering issues such as the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. North Korea is getting close to making a nuclear bomb. But the US government can do nothing.

Consider some newer issues that the US government has mismanaged. The US was marginalized during the turmoil of the Arab Spring. Pro-American strongmen such as Hosni Mubarak fell. Obama dared not intervene in the Syrian civil war. Fortunately the Russian government persuaded Syria to abandon its chemical weapons program. Currently Ukraine is in chaos. Obama has no intention of engaging in a shooting war with Russian President Vladimir Putin. He could not even if he wanted to. All he can do is discuss sanctions with EU members. Putin has reacted to these sanctions with contempt. Mainland China's power has grown significantly. Disputes between Mainland China and Japan over territorial sovereignty and World War II have become increasingly acute. Sovereignty disputes in the South China Sea are heating up as well. U.S. forces in the Asian region face increasingly serious threats.

To avoid being ejected from Asia by Mainland China, Obama has resorted to "re-balancing." He has re-directed U.S. attention toward the Asian-Pacific region. HIs visit to Japan, Korea, Malaysia, and the Philippines, encircled the Chinese mainland. Such a political move is not hard to understand. One. It sends a message to Mainland China. It says that the US government remains a powerful force in the Asian-Pacific region. Two. It strengthens relations with other Asian-Pacific governments. Three. It attempts to expedite the Trans-Pacific Economic Partnership Agreement (TPP), opening doors for American products. It also creates a trade bloc directed against Mainland China.

During Obama's first stop, he gave Japan a major gift. He publicly declared that the US-Japan Security Treaty covers the Diaoyutai Islands. He also expressed concern over Mainland China's unilaterally declared East China Sea air defense identification zone. This failed to persuade Japan to compromise on the TPP however. Negotiations continued until the last minute, when a Joint Communique was reluctantly released. Obama left empty-handed. Upon reaching Korea, Obama promptly blasted Japan's human rights violations against comfort women. He retaliated against the Japanese government and expressed solidarity with South Korea.

Obama's main task in South Korea was to strengthen the ROK-US alliance. It was to exchange views with South Korean President Park Geun-hye over the North Korean nuclear situation and the Northeast Asian strategic scenario. It was to discuss economic matters such as Korean participation in the TPP, and the implementation of the Korea-US Free Trade Agreement. The US government also wants to postpone the transfer of wartime operational control to the South Korean government.

The last time a U.S. president visited Malaysia was in 1966. Since then nearly half a century has passed. This reveals the degree to which the United States has neglected Malaysia. Obama hopes to use the visit to cultivate relations with the Malaysian government. He also hopes to highlight friendly and cooperative relations with a moderate Muslim country. Malaysia is not especially eager to join the TPP. Obama personally lobbied Malaysia. The two sides will conduct follow-up consultations on their agreements. The last leg of the visit was the Philippines. Obama has long indicated that the United States would return to Asia. Besides TPP negotiations, he specifically discussed increasing U.S. troop deployments in the Philippines.

Several governments, including the Japanese government, the Malaysian government, and the Philippine government, have grievances with China over the Diaoyutai Islands, WWII, and the South China Sea. Relations between the Mainland Chinese government and the Japanese government, and relations between the Mainland Chinese government and the Philippine government have deteriorated. Obama's visit was clearly intended to prevent China from taking stronger action. The declaration of the East China Sea air defense identification zone has the US and other governments worried about a South China Sea air defense identification zone. They hope to block Chinese stealth expansion in the South China Sea.

But China remains the largest force in the region. It has close relations with all neighboring countries. These countries may want United States government backing on individual disputes, but only as protection and as a bargaining chip. They still hope to develop friendly relations with Mainland China and to seek out trade opportunities. If the US wants to use force to suppress Mainland China, the only willing ally is Japan.

The Chinese mainland has risen. The situation in Asia is bound to undergo gradual but fundamental changes. The governments of the United States, Mainland China, and other neigbors, including Taiwan, must consider their responses. How can they create a new relationship conducive to the interests of everyone. The US and China need not to return to Cold War era containment. They can cooperate and coexist amidst competitive wrangling. Obama has completed his visit to Asia. It is time the affected parties ponder the issues.

社論－亞洲應更慎重面對中國崛起
2014年04月29日 04:09 中國時報 本報訊

美國總統歐巴馬的亞洲行正盛大進行中，走訪了日本、韓國、馬來西亞和菲律賓。這是一場大動作的外交秀，以姿態與言語力圖彰顯美國對亞太的重視，以及宣示美國在此區依然保有強大的影響力，但顯然局勢已經改變了。

雖然行程風光熱鬧，但歐巴馬這趟來亞洲的背景，卻是上任以來外交成績乏善可陳、美國全球影響力下滑的窘境。以往美國挾其政經軍力量，可以很大程度左右全球事務；但近年來情勢丕變，美國經濟衰退大刪軍事外交預算，民心厭倦海外戰事，已無力支應一個強悍的世界警察角色。

放眼當前多項重要國際紛爭，美國不是拿不出辦法來，就是需要其他國家奧援。歐巴馬上任以來對美國的外交政策並無大戰略，反而把從伊拉克、阿富汗撤軍作為首要工作。長年問題諸如以巴之爭，美國仍然喬不出個解決辦法，對離成功做出核彈愈來愈接近的北韓，也完全無能為力。

至於新的問題，美國也應對得左支右絀。不但在阿拉伯之春動盪中處於邊緣地位，原本親美的埃及穆巴拉克等強人還垮台。敘利亞內戰歐巴馬根本不敢介入，幸而俄羅斯斡旋出了敘國政府放棄化武的方案。現在烏克蘭又出事，歐巴馬無意也無力為此和俄國總統普丁開火，只能和歐盟國家研商一些普丁根本沒看在眼裡的制裁措施。而隨著中國大陸國力大幅增長，中日主權與二戰紛爭日趨尖銳，南海主權之爭也方興未艾，美國在亞洲的勢力版圖更嚴重受到威脅。

為了避免勢力被中國踢出亞洲，歐巴馬祭出「再平衡」策略，重新強調美國對亞太的關注。這次他訪問日、韓、馬、菲，繞著中國大陸走了一圈，這樣的政治動作相當容易理解，一來向中國發出「美國還是亞太強大勢力」的訊息，二來強化與亞太國家的關係，三來希望跨太平洋經濟夥伴協定（TPP）早日獲得成果，替美國產品打開方便門，也對抗以中國大陸為核心的自貿區塊。

歐巴馬第一站就給日本送上大禮，公開宣示釣魚台屬於美日安保條約範圍，並對中國大陸片面宣布東海防空識別區表達關切。不過，這並沒有換來日本在TPP的讓步，聯合公報甚至談判到最後一刻才勉強出爐。空手離去的歐巴馬，到了韓國立即痛批日本的慰安婦制度侵犯人權，既回敬日本一記，也對韓國表達道義相挺。

歐巴馬在南韓的主要任務是強化韓美同盟、與南韓總統朴槿惠對北韓核武及東北亞局勢交換意見，經貿方面則是談韓國參與TPP以及落實韓美自由貿易協定的問題，另外美方還想把戰時作戰指揮權移交給南韓的時間再延後。

上次美國總統訪問馬來西亞，是在1966年，近半世紀以來都未再到訪，足見馬來西亞被美國忽略的程度。歐巴馬希望能藉著這趟訪問經營與馬國的關係，也凸顯與溫和派穆斯林國家的友好合作。馬國對TPP態度並不積極，在歐巴馬的親自遊說下，雙方後續會就協定內容展開磋商。至於最後一站菲律賓，歐巴馬除了一貫作出美國重返亞洲的政治動作、磋商TPP外，也會具體討論增加美軍在菲國輪替兵力。

這幾個國家裡，日、馬、菲與中國之間有釣魚台、南海與二戰歷史恩怨的齟齬，日本和菲律賓近來與中國更是關係惡化，歐巴馬此行確實有阻擋中國採取進一步強勢作為的意思。尤其繼東海防空識別區後，美國對涉及更多國家的南海防空識別區十分關切，希望能在南海營造攔阻中國擴張之隱形陣線。

不過，中國大陸是區域最大勢力，與鄰國各項交流合作都很密切，相關國家即使希望在個別爭執議題上有美國當後盾，但那只是作為保護與談判籌碼，各國仍然希望能與中國大陸發展友好關係並爭取經貿商機。美國如果想強力壓制中國大陸，將會發現願聯手的盟國可能只有日本。

隨著中國大陸的崛起茁壯，亞太局勢必然逐漸出現根本性的變化，美、中及周邊相關國家，包括台灣，都必須及早思考因應，為未來營造一個最有利於各方利益的新互動關係。不需要再回到冷戰的圍堵狀態，美中也未必不能在競爭角力中尋求合作共存模式。歐巴馬走完亞洲這一圈，有些課題，值得各方開始深思籌謀了。