Student Movement: Laying Track for the Xiaoying Express

Student Movement: Laying Track for the Xiaoying Express
United Daily News editorial (Taipei, Taiwan, Republic of China)
A Translation
April 16, 2014

Summary: Water can float a boat, but it can also capsize it. In 2012 Tsai failed to negotiate the last mile. The 24 day long student movement has positioned Tsai Ing-wen at the crest of a political wave. Tsai must avoid being crushed by this wave. Only then can the "Xiaoying Express" carry her across the last mile. But student leaders have been shouting anti-China and pro-Taiwan independence slogans. If they want to help Xiaoying win, they must take them all back. Can they?

Full text below:

Su Tseng-chang and Frank Hsieh have pulled out of the DPP party chairmanship election. Tsai Ing-wen is now a shoo-in. The 2016 DPP presidential nomination is hers. The Sunflower student movement collided head on with the Ma administration. To everyone's surprise, it undermined Su's leadership. This was truly an unexpected consequence of the student movement.

The Sunflower student movement led to Su's exit and Tsai's entrance. It has long been said that "who controls the party machinery, controls the strategic picture." But this is a myth. When navigating political storms, one must exercise rational and effective leadership. Otherwise helming the party machinery will merely lead to self-injury. Take Su Tseng-chang for example. Tsai Ying-wen's momentum is surging. Ma Ying-jeou is already a lame duck, one deaf to advice, both from the inside and the outside. For Ma, this has been a costly lesson.

The student movement proved that Tsai has solid support on college campuses. Many student leaders are graduates of her Thinking Taiwan Organization work-study program. The stature of the DPP Youth Corps has steadily grown, honed by social movements. The student movement enabled it to demonstrate its public relations and organizational skills. Following the DPP defeat in 2008, Tsai Ing-wen spared no effort recruiting pro-Green intelligentsia and community organizations. Two years ago,  as a Tsinghua professor, she delivered a touching concession speech. The student movement has clearly sunk its roots among the younger generation on college campuses.

Su served as party chairman for two years. Tsai Ing-wen used the opportunity to create a heroic public image. She may not have been center stage politically. But this had an upside. It kept her in the clear each time the DPP engaged in obstructionism and trouble-making. Also, when progressive intellectuals denounced the ruling and opposition parties, Tsai's Teflon image kept her free from harm. By contrast, Su Tseng-chang was never able to implement this many hidden agendas. He suffered the consequences of his penny wise pound foolish tactics.

Was Tsai Ing-wen the sole beneficiary of the student movement? No. That would be an exaggeration. The student movement opposed black box operations, opposed the CSSTA, and promoted hatred of Mainland China. Tsai Ing-wen seeks a more pragmatic and stable cross-strait relationship. The student movement differs from and clashes with Tsai's cross-strait policy.

If Tsai Ing-wen wants the support of the student movement, she must endorse its hardline anti-Mainland proposals. On the other hand, if she wants to ensure the Democratic Progressive Party's return to power, she cannot afford either extremism or fence-straddling. Otherwise, more mature middle class voters will reject her. In fact, this was the main reason Su Tseng-chang gave for his withdrawal. He did not want to have to clean up the mess left by the student movement, while Tsai Ing-wen reaped its benefits. He wanted to force Tsai Ing-wen to clean up her own mess, and the dilemma the student movement left the DPP.

Su and Hsieh pulled out of the election, one after the other. On the surface, Tsai Ing-wen became the student movement era DPP leader. Her political future seems bright. But she now faces a dilemma. The CSSTA and the Articles for the Oversight of Cross-Strait Trade Agreements will lead to a ruling vs. opposition party clashes in the legislature. Can she formulate a strategy better than Su Tseng-chang's? Can she provide effective checks and balances? Can she avoid being hijacked by the student movement?

If the baton can be passed to the younger generation, the DPP's public image will immediately become younger. But ideologically it will be informed by the student movement's intense Sinophobia. That being the case, political and economic issues already clarified may once again become muddied and confused. Tsai Ing-wen must help the DPP formulate a rational policy trusted by the majority. Otherwise insoluble factional disputes will make it impossible for her to remake the DPP's image among moderate voters.

Can Tsai Ing-wen lead the DPP through a successful transition? Can she pass muster during the year end elections? If she can, then an opposition party with a clean image, adept at offense and defense, will pose a serious threat to the ruling KMT in the 2016 election, and an even greater threat afterwards. The KMT would find itself on the defensive. From this perspective, the political repercussions of Su Tseng-chang's withdrawal are akin to a nuclear explosion. The KMT must tread cautiously.

Water can float a boat, but it can also capsize it. In 2012 Tsai failed to negotiate the last mile. The 24 day long student movement has positioned Tsai Ing-wen at the crest of a political wave. Tsai must avoid being crushed by this wave. Only then can the "Xiaoying Express" carry her across the last mile. But student leaders have been shouting anti-China and pro-Taiwan independence slogans. If they want to help Xiaoying win, they must take them all back. Can they?

學運為「小英號列車」鋪了最後一哩？
【聯合報╱社論】
2014.04.16 03:41 am

在蘇貞昌、謝長廷退出黨主席選舉後，蔡英文篤定成為贏家，二○一六總統大選門票於她已儼然在握。太陽花學運強烈衝撞馬政府，不料卻先瓦解了蘇貞昌的領導；在外界看來，這真是學運大戲的奇中奇。

太陽花學運演成「蘇退、蔡進」的結局，說明了「掌握黨機器才能掌控大局」的想法，其實只是政治人物的權力神話。現實是，如果無法合理、有效地領導政治走向，徒然擁有龐大的黨機器，結果只是砸傷自己。蘇貞昌的例子，不僅對氣勢正旺的蔡英文是鮮活的教案，對於已然跛腳卻仍不知聽取內外建言的馬英九而言，更是血淋淋的一課。

這次學運，證實蔡英文成功扎根校園。幾名學運領袖都曾由小英基金會安排「工讀」，並以民進黨「青年軍」的身分一路成長，經由社會運動的磨練，在學運中展現宣傳、組織戰力。事實上，二○○八年民進黨敗選後，蔡英文在親綠知識界、社運界的經營即不遺餘力，兩年前她動人的敗選聲明更出自清華教授之筆。從這次學運，可以看到此一脈絡之影響確已在大學校園中開花散枝，深入年輕世代。

在蘇貞昌出任黨主席的兩年，蔡英文以自由之身在民間營造其超然形象；雖未置身政治舞台中心，卻免受民進黨動輒杯葛鬧事的醜態牽累。同時，在「進步知識分子」對朝野政黨口誅筆伐時，蔡英文也因「不沾鍋」風格而倖免其殃。相形之下，蘇貞昌的處心積慮卻處處自限，終致貪小失大的下場。

但是，要說這次學運的花果能被蔡英文一手收割，恐怕言過其實。原因是，學運的訴求從「反黑箱」倒向「反服貿」，甚至一路延燒出「反中」、「仇中」的烈火；這樣的發展，與蔡英文正在謀求建立一個更務實、更平穩的兩岸關係背道而馳。甚至可以說，這次學運的主張，對蔡英文規劃中的兩岸政策是一次悖離和打擊。

如果蔡英文想要收編支持學運的年輕族群，她必須接收學運的強烈反中主張。但如果她想要兼顧民進黨的收復執政權大計，她其實沒有任何偏走極端或苟且曖昧的餘地；那樣的話，她勢必被成熟族群及中間族群拋棄。這其實也是蘇貞昌選在此時宣布退選的主因：他不想在這裡辛苦收拾學運留下的殘局，卻讓蔡英文在那裡悠閒地坐收漁利；他要逼蔡英文自己出馬清理這片狼藉，面對學運留給民進黨的兩難。

表面上看，在蘇謝相繼退選後，蔡英文成為「後學運時代」的民進黨領導人，政治前景似一片光明。但實質上，她要立即面對的，是服貿協議及兩岸協議監督條例在立法院的朝野交鋒；她能否拿出比蘇貞昌更高明的戰略，能否提出有效制衡、又不被學運訴求脅制的解決，並非容易的任務。

簡言之，如果「中生代接班」可能實現，民進黨的外在形象或可望立即年輕化；但在意識形態上，卻將因學運的拉扯而被強烈的「反中」思維主導。那麼，台灣近年盤整得較為清晰的政經議題，可能重新陷入混沌，情勢愈發紛亂。蔡英文若不能為民進黨理出一條爭取多數人民信任的理性出路，在剪不斷、理還亂的派系恩仇糾葛下，她恐難破除民進黨留在一般中間選民心中的「亂黨」的形象。

但是，如果蔡英文能領導民進黨徹底成功轉型，並在年底選舉過關斬將；那麼，一個形象清新、攻守有據的在野黨，不僅將在二○一六年嚴重威脅執政黨，在未來一段時間內，國民黨恐怕都將處於挨打的劣勢。從這個角度看，蘇貞昌宣告退選所引發的政治效應，對台灣即可能形同一場核爆，國民黨務必戒慎恐懼因應。

問題是，水能載舟，亦能覆舟。今天，把蔡英文推向政治浪尖的，是廿四天的學運浪潮；而蔡英文首須克服的，是如何把這波過激的浪潮壓抑下去，那樣，「小英號列車」才有可能平穩走完她二○一二年失之交臂的「最後一哩路」。然而，學生領袖剛剛喊得震天價響的「反中」、「台獨」，若為了幫小英抬轎而須將所有大話吞回去，又將是怎麼吞法呢？