Globalization and Taiwan's Survival Strategy

Globalization and Taiwan's Survival Strategy
United Daily News editorial (Taipei, Taiwan, Republic of China)
A Translation
April 4, 2014

Summary: The CSSTA debate must not remain mired in Blue vs. Green reunification vs. independence infighting. Any decision regarding the CSSTA must be made on the basis of a globalization-based survival strategy. If Taiwan chooses not to become an island of economic freedom, if it chooses to reject globalization, it will be marginalized both economically and politically. The loss of economic prosperity will mean the loss of political security. Yet those who oppose the CSSTA righteously trumpet their suicidal political views. The political theater surrounding the CSSTA may come across as farce, but it is in fact tragedy.

Full text below:

The debate over the Cross-Strait Service Trade Agreement (CSSTA) must be understood from the perspective of Taiwan's globalization-based survival strategy. Only that allows a macro level, holistic understanding.

If Taiwan hopes to survive globalization, two things are unavoidable. One. It cannot avoid globalization. Two. It cannot avoid cross-strait links.

Globalization for Taiwan remains a challenge. If Taiwan fails to live up to this challenge, it will face a crisis. If it lives up to the challenge, it will enjoy a windfall. This is the big picture that Taiwan cannot avoid. Taiwan's globalization is related to cross-strait links. Why? Because the globalization framework is based on FTAs. Taiwan's globalization must include Mainland China. It must include, for example, ECFA. Taiwan's globalization, which includes the signing FTAs, requires trust between Taipei and Beijing. In short, Taiwan cannot achieve globalization without Mainland China's participation. This is part of the big picture that Taiwan cannot avoid.

Given the logic of globalization, Taiwan's survival strategy must be as follows. One. Sign ECFA and other agreements. This formalizes cross-strait economic and trade exchanges. It builds political goodwill and trust. Two. Having built cross-strait goodwill and trust, Taiwan must sign the TPP, RCEP and other major FTAs. Three. First improve cross-strait relations to promote Taiwan's political and economic globalization. Then use political and economic globalization to manage cross-strait relations.

If Taiwan cannot withstand the pace of globalization, it will inevitably become more economically dependent on the Mainland. It will be politically hijacked by the Mainland as well. Therefore we must use ECFA to consolidate cross-strait links. This, admittedly, is merely part of Taiwan's globalization-based survival strategy. But without this piece of the puzzle, there can be no TPP and RCEP. Taiwan will not be able to implement its globalization-based survival strategy.

In fact, Taiwan's survival may be more threatened than many are willing to admit. Even if it joins the TPP and RCEP, it may still lose in open competition. If internal bickering prevents it from joining regional alliances, its outlook will be even more pessimistic.

Therefore, when debating the CSSTA, one must consider Taiwan's globalization-based survival strategy. One must realize that Taiwan cannot avoid globalization. Taiwan cannot avoid cross-strait links. Taiwan must create a positive relationship between cross-strait links and globalization. Taiwan must avoid creating a negative relationship between cross-strait links and globalization. Internal conflict on Taiwan between the Blue camp and the Green camp over reunification and independence undermines cross-strait relations. Using cross-strait relations to implement Taiwan's globalization-based survival strategy, and creating a positive relationship between the two is difficult.

One must grasp the central concept of globalization before one can have a macro level understanding of the CSSTA. The primary theme of Taiwan's survival strategy must be globalization, with cross-strait links secondary. One must not perceive the issue primarily in terms of "fight or flight" relative to the Mainland, and only secondarily in terms of globalization. That would be a grave mistake.

One. A globalization-based survival strategy means Taiwan must become an island of economic freedom. It must join the TPP. The international reality is that if the Mainland does not join, then Taiwan cannot join. It must join the Mainland led RCEP. These must be its ultimate goals. The TPP and RCEP currently have a total of 21 members. That number will increase. In other words, Taiwan must be ready to open its markets to at least 21 regions or countries, with nearly four billion people, including the Mainland. Taiwan can not delude itself. It cannot globalize without the participation of the Mainland. If it must open itself up to 20 other regions or countries, how can it refuse to open itself up to the Mainland? Two. Beijing has its own globalization-based survival strategy considerations. It has opened its markets to Taiwan. It must also open its markets to other regions or countries. Therefore in the Mainland market, Taiwan must compete with other regions or countries. That is why Perng Huai-nan said that if the CSSTA is signed after an FTA between Mainland China and South Korea, 100 thousand workers in Taiwan's flat panel industry may face unemployment. One might say this is a matter of considerable urgency. Three. The formalization of cross-strait economic and trade relations will soften cross-strait political links, and increase cross-strait political trust. This should encourage mutually beneficial peaceful development. This should discourage the persecution of those who express their views on cross-strait policy. Four. Globalization is Taiwan's only viable survival strategy. If one realizes this, then one ought not incite anti-market opening policies. One should not incite anti-liberalization populist sentiment. The CSSTA makes only partial concessions. Yet it has deeply divided the public on Taiwan. If Taiwan joins future regional trade agreements that require even greater liberalization, consensus is unlikely. Taiwan's globalization-based survival strategy will be shattered. Taiwan will find itself at an impasse.

The CSSTA debate must not remain mired in Blue vs. Green reunification vs. independence infighting. Any decision regarding the CSSTA must be made on the basis of a globalization-based survival strategy. If Taiwan chooses not to become an island of economic freedom, if it chooses to reject globalization, it will be marginalized both economically and politically. The loss of economic prosperity will mean the loss of political security. Yet those who oppose the CSSTA righteously trumpet their suicidal political views. The political theater surrounding the CSSTA may come across as farce, but it is in fact tragedy.

台灣全球化生存戰略的抉擇
【聯合報╱社論】
2014.04.04 04:08 am

這一場服貿協議的爭議，應從「台灣全球化生存戰略」的高度加以認知，始能獲得宏觀與通盤的理解。

就全球化生存戰略言，台灣有兩個「躲不過」。一、躲不過「全球化」；二、躲不過「兩岸連結」。

全球化是台灣的挑戰，輸掉挑戰即是危機，贏得挑戰即是機遇，這是台灣躲不過的大形勢。而台灣的全球化又與「兩岸連結」相關，因為全球化的框架是建立在各種ＦＴＡ之上，一方面，台灣的全球化必定要包含中國大陸（如ＥＣＦＡ體系）；另一方面，台灣的全球化（如加入各種ＦＴＡ）亦必須建立在與北京的互信之上。這就是說，台灣不可能實現一個「甩掉中國的全球化」，這也是台灣躲不過的大形勢。

因此，台灣全球化生存戰略的基本邏輯是：一、透過簽訂ＥＣＦＡ體系等途徑，一則以法制化規範兩岸經貿交流，再則累積雙方在政治上的善意與互信。二、在兩岸的善意及互信上，台灣必須嘗試加入ＴＰＰ及ＲＣＥＰ等巨型ＦＴＡ。三、亦即，先藉改善的兩岸政經關係來推進台灣全球化，再藉台灣全球化的政經成果來節制兩岸關係。

台灣若不能站穩全球化的腳步，必然在經濟上更依賴中國，亦在政治上更受中國的挾制。因此，以ＥＣＦＡ體系來穩定「兩岸連結」雖只是台灣全球化生存戰略的一塊拼圖，但若少了這一塊拼圖，就拼不上ＴＰＰ及ＲＣＥＰ，也就拼不成台灣全球化生存戰略的全景。

其實，台灣的生存處境可能比許多人想像的更要凶險。因為，即使進入了ＴＰＰ及ＲＣＥＰ，台灣也未必能在開放的競爭中保持不敗；但若因陷於內鬥而無法進入區域結盟，台灣的前景必更趨悲觀。

因此，在爭論服貿協議時，不能不以「台灣全球化生存戰略」為思維基準。亦即必須知道：台灣躲不過全球化，也躲不過兩岸連結。台灣必須努力的是：使兩岸連結與全球化發生正向的關聯，而不使兩岸連結成為全球化的負面因素。然而，要在台灣藍綠統獨的內鬥下破壞兩岸關係易如吹灰，但要使兩岸關係在「台灣全球化生存戰略」上產生正向關聯卻是個艱難的工程。

必須先掌握住「全球化」這個中心概念，始能對服貿協議有宏觀的理解。亦即，台灣必須以「全球化」為生存戰略的「主題」，而將兩岸連結視為「子題」；若以對抗或逃避中國大陸為「主題」，卻視「全球化」為無關輕重的「子題」，那就錯得離譜。

因此，一、全球化生存戰略，就是台灣必須贏得「經貿自由島」的地位，而以加入ＴＰＰ（國際現實是：中國不加入，台灣即不可能加入）及ＲＣＥＰ（中國主導）為高階目標。ＴＰＰ及ＲＣＥＰ目前共有二十一國（會員仍將增加），也就是台灣至少要有對二十一國近四十億人口市場相互開放的準備，其中包括中國大陸。台灣不可能妄想一個「沒有中國的全球化」，若須對其他二十國開放，豈能不對中國大陸開放？二、北京自己也有其「全球化生存戰略」的考量；亦即，它對台灣開放市場，也須對其他國家開放市場，所以台灣在大陸市場上是與其他國家處於競爭地位。因此彭淮南才會說，若服貿協議簽遲於中韓ＦＴＡ，台灣恐有十萬面板業從業員面臨失業；可謂急如燃眉。三、兩岸經貿關係的法制化，有利於軟化兩岸政治連結，並優化兩岸政治互信；雙邊應當相互鼓勵這種有利「和平發展」的思維及行為，勿使在兩岸政策上持開明立場者遭到挫折。四、若知全球化為台灣唯一可行的生存戰略，即不應煽動反開放、反自由化的民粹情緒；倘片面讓利的服貿協議使台灣社會撕裂至此，未來若要加入開放程度更大的區域貿易協定，民意更無可能達成共識，那就將面臨「台灣全球化生存戰略」的破局，使台灣陷入絕境。

服貿協議爭議不可自陷於藍綠統獨的內鬥層次，而應當將之視為「台灣全球化生存戰略」的大抉擇。台灣若不選擇成為「經貿自由島」的全球化路線，在經濟上及政治上即必趨邊緣化，而經濟既失維繫，政治即失安全。然而，反服貿者竟然能將一個「台灣自殺」的政治主張說得如此正氣凜然，這個笑話其實是個大悲劇。