Nuclear-Free Taiwan: Blackouts Will Be a Fact of Life

Nuclear-Free Taiwan: Blackouts Will Be a Fact of Life
United Daily News editorial (Taipei, Taiwan, Republic of China)
A Translation
April 30, 2014

Summary: Those who demand a nuclear-free Taiwan assure us that even after nuclear power generation is abolished we will still have abundant electricity. They assure us that blackouts are merely boogeymen invented by advocates of nuclear power. When it was still unclear whether advocates of a nuclear-free Taiwan would emerge victorious, they could get away with all sorts of irresponsible and unsubstantiated claims. But now advocates of a nuclear free Taiwan have come into their own, As a result, they can no longer get away with irresponsible claims. All consumers must confront the prospect of power shortages and blackouts without advanced warning. Otherwise when electricity is essential but unavailable, any crisis could mean life vs. death.

Full text below:

Those who demand a nuclear-free Taiwan assure us that even after nuclear power generation is abolished we will still have abundant electricity. They assure us that blackouts are merely boogeymen invented by advocates of nuclear power. When it was still unclear whether advocates of a nuclear-free Taiwan would emerge victorious, they could get away with all sorts of irresponsible and unsubstantiated claims. But now advocates of a nuclear free Taiwan have come into their own, As a result, they can no longer get away with irresponsible claims. All consumers must confront the prospect of power shortages and blackouts without advanced warning. Otherwise when electricity is essential but unavailable, any crisis could mean life vs. death.

Power supply stability on Taiwan once ranked among the highest in the world at nearly 99%. This was because the government promoted economic growth. It pursued a policy of "if power is needed, power will be provided." Many needs were provided by Taipower, a state owned enterprise. But 20 years ago, Taiwan began liberalizing the electrical power industry. It authorized the construction of private sector electrical power plants. Later, environmental awareness, global warming, calls for a nuclear free homeland, the rejection of coal, and the insistence on gas burning electrical power plants, led to incremental deterioration of the power grid and eventual crisis.

A stable power supply must meet three criteria. One. Its power supply must be adequate. This includes it total installed capacity and spinning reserve ratio. Two. The power supply must be reliable and schedulable. Three. The power supply must be high quality. The voltage must be stable. If power supply stability decreases, the impact will be serious. Taiwan's economy is highly dependent on heavy industry, the chemical industry, and energy-intensive industry. Taiwan society requires electricity to keep its communications and transportation systems, life support systems, disaster prevention systems, and medical care systems functioning. Blackouts would affect all of these as well.

Taiwan's biggest crisis is power grid deterioration . It is severely deficient in base load capacity, and the situation is getting worse. If Taiwan goes nuclear-free and rejects the use of coal, its situation will be even more difficult. The problem is not confined to power capacity. Power quality is also an issue.

Taiwan's independent power grid makes it more difficult to maintain a stable power supply. This is true for nuclear, coal, gas, oil, and gas fired base load capacity. Installed capacity must to reach at least 60% to support system operation. Low cost fuel power generation capacity exceeds nuclear and coal-fired units as a proportion of installed capacity. They are the backbone of the power system. Eliminate nuclear power plants and coal-fired units. Replace them with high priced gas powered plants, and the system will lose money as fast as it generates electricity. It will also take at least a decade to build gas-fired power plants and relay stations. They will not be able to fill the gap left by nuclear free, coal free power generation.

Contrast this with Fukushima Japan, which was struck by nuclear disaster. Anti-nuclear sentiment led to a zero tolerance policy toward nuclear power generation. But during a recent cabinet meeting Prime Minister Shinzo Abe promoted a safe nuclear power plant policy, on the grounds that "nuclear power is important for base load capacity." Japan was unable to bear three years and 220 billion USD in gas costs and the associated trade deficits. Taiwan wants to go nuclear free immediately. Even Japan could not afford to do so. How can Taiwan?

Even currently, coal-fired power remains the mainstay of the power grid. It provides northern Taiwan with 43% of its electricity. But many plants are in south-central Taiwan. This makes them difficult to maintain. An accident to a transmission tower, and a unexpected power outage is certain. If Taiwan goes nuclear free, new units at Linkou, Hsiehho, Shenau, and Tatan are bound to encounter more local resistance and difficulties with EIAs, making the situation even worse.

If we leave aside capital costs, gas-fired units could theoretically fill the power gap. But the international natural gas market is severely strained. Demand on Taiwan is rising. Qatar, Indonesia, and Malaysia, account for more than 80% of the procurement structure. Political instability in these countries has long been a concern. The chance that gas may become unavailable continues to increase. Some hope that U.S. shale gas can fill the gap. But this must await the relaxation of export policy, the construction of port liquefaction equipment, and even the completion of Panama Canal widening. How can this possibly be achieved in the short term?

Deterioration of the power grid will affect scheduling and lead to power outages. Voltage instability also presents a problem. In particular, the high-tech industries which account for most of our exports, require a high degree of voltage stability. Voltage instability has a significant impact on equipment and production capacity. Taiwan's high-tech industry has traditionally been able to attract investments, largely due to high quality power supplies.

Power grid deterioration will lead to more than just increased power outages. Life support systems will also be affected. Drinking water, beginning with source water, water purification, pressurized water, and ending up as tap water, depends on electricity. A given amount of water requires a given amount of electricity. Put simply, the production cost of drinking water is not confined to the water supply. Power shortages can affect sewage treatment, pumping, silt removal, and drainage. Every  one of these processes requires power.

If the information and communications system is under attack, it will impact our daily lives. ATMs cannot dispense cash to debit card holders. Convenience store logistics, cash flow glitches, mean they will no longer be able to serve you. Airport e-tickets cannot be scanned. Passengers will not be able to board their planes. People will be more than just inconvenienced. Some impacts could cost people their lives. Oxygen supplies for critically ill hospital patients could be interrupted due to power outages. Surgeries could be interrupted mid way by sudden power failures. Disaster monitoring systems could be thrown off by unstable power supplies The impacts are difficult to predict.

We may choose to hold a referendum. We may choose to mothball nuclear power plants. Either way, these are serious decisions. One must give them serious consideration. Whatever we decide, we are the ones who will have to bear the consequences.

非核之後，供電不穩恐將成事實
【聯合報╱社論】
2014.04.30 01:58 am

主張非核的人士聲稱廢核之後電仍一定夠，「停電」只是擁核人士的恐嚇；這樣的說詞，在非核機率未明顯勝出之際，可以不必舉證、不負責任，但非核主張成了氣 候，有可能實現之際，就再不能信口雌黃，隨便說說。所有用電戶都得正視供電穩定度降低、無預警停電機率增加的事實，否則到時要電沒電，恐還有「要命」的危 機。

台灣過去的供電穩定度全球名列前茅，幾乎達百分之九十九，原因是政府發展經濟、追求成長的能源「以需定供」政策，有多少需求，就要求屬國營事業的台電來配 合。但從二十年前開始推動電業自由化、開放民營電廠設置，之後因環保意識、地球暖化危機，非核、拒絕燃煤、只要燃氣電廠，造成電力系統一步步地劣化，逐漸 步入險境。

供電穩定涵蓋三個層面，其一、供電量是否足夠？牽涉到總裝置容量、備轉容量率；二、可靠度、調度能力；三、供電品質，電壓穩定與否。如果供電穩定度降低， 影響所及絕不只是台灣經濟高度仰賴的重化產業、能源密集產業，甚且維繫社會運作的資通、維生、防災、醫療等系統都將受到波及。

台灣電力系統眼前最大危機是電力系統劣化，嚴重基載不足，且日趨惡化的走勢，在非核、拒絕燃煤電廠後，更將陷於難以穩定運轉局面；而且不止供電量有問題，供電品質也將面臨挑戰。

以台灣獨立電網的不利環境，要維持供電穩定，包括核能、燃煤、燃氣、燃油、汽電共生的基載電力，裝置容量至少要達到百分之六十才能支撐系統運作，尤其是燃 料成本低、發電量超過裝置容量占比的核能及燃煤機組，更是電力系統的骨幹；剔除核能、燃煤機組，改以高單價的燃氣電廠取代，系統將是「發一度、賠一度」； 而需時至少十年的燃氣電廠和接收站建置，根本補不上立即非核、棄煤的電力缺口。

對照遭福島核災重擊的日本，高漲的反核氣氛造成「零核」局面，但首相安倍晉三日前在內閣會議做成推動安全核電廠再運轉政策，理由是「核能發電是重要的基載電源」；三年兩千兩百億美元的燃氣支出和連帶的貿易逆差，日本撐不下去。台灣想要立即非核，難道「日本不能、台灣能」？

即使以目前核能、燃煤仍是供電主力的電力結構，應付台灣北部百分之四十三的高用電比率、電廠卻多在中南部的局面，維持得已很辛苦，萬一輸配電系統有閃失， 迴路上一個鐵塔遭天災損壞，無預警斷電幾乎是必然；非核之後，若林口、協和、深澳、大潭等新增機組因為環評及地方阻力致進度不如預期，局面一定更糟。

不計算成本，理論上燃氣機組是可以補上電力缺口，但問題是國際天然氣市場高度緊繃，台灣的需求又快速攀升，而且以目前對卡達、印尼、馬來西亞三國超過八成 的採購結構，供氣國政治不安定一直是隱憂，買不到氣的危機不斷升高；至於寄望美國頁岩氣補上，須等該國出口政策放寬，港口液化設備建置，甚至還要等巴拿馬 運河拓寬竣工，短期內豈可能實現？

電力結構劣化一定會影響調度，缺電之外，電壓不穩定也是問題，尤其出口主力的高科技業者對電壓穩定的要求極高，如果電壓不穩，對設備、產能都有很大的影響。過去台灣能吸引高科技業來投資，很重要的誘因是供電品質高。

系統劣化後不止缺電機率大增，維生系統的其他因子也同遭衝擊。以飲用水為例，從原水、淨水、加壓給水到水龍頭上水，「一度水、一度電」簡單說明飲用水的生產成本；不止上水，缺電後下水處理也受影響，揚水、沉泥、排水……，每個過程都需要動力。

資通系統受到衝擊，必將影響日常生活，例如帶著提款卡出門櫃員機卻不吐鈔，便利商店的物流、金流當機，暫時不能當你的好鄰居；機場電子機票讀不出來，不能 報到登機……。生活層面的影響還只是不方便，另些影響才真「要命」，例如醫院重症病患的氧氣供應因停電而中斷，手術做到一半突然斷電；又如防災監測系統敏 銳的儀器因供電不穩而失準，影響都極難估計。

公投也好，封存也罷，茲事體大，不能不認真思考，做成決定就得承擔！