Cross-Strait Peaceful Development Must Not Be Delayed

Cross-Strait Peaceful Development Must Not Be Delayed
China Times editorial (Taipei, Taiwan, Republic of China)
A Translation
May 6, 2014

Summary: A cross-Strait peace agreement will require consensus. Achieving an internal consensus on both sides, as well as among East Asian nations with a strategic interest will not be easy. The authorities on both sides must remain true to their principles. They must pursue their ideals, free their minds, be realistic, cautious, and discreet.

Full text below:

Following the Sunflower Student Movement, a whole range of street protests erupted one after the other. These represent the sudden outbreak of years of long-festering maladies. As an old Chinese expression has it, "Three feet of ice is not the result of an overnight chill." Since the Lee Teng-hui and Chen Shui-bian regimes, the ruling and opposition parties on Taiwan have been locked in internecine struggles. Politicians have deliberately incited mob sentiment. The result has been the rise of populism. Taiwan has frittered away nearly 30 years of precious time. It has become a cautionary tale for neighboring countries. Even the foreign media has issued alerts, and expressed concern that the future of Taiwan is being decided on its streets. Taiwan scholars pessimistically note
that Taiwan has become mired in a vicious cycle. Is the Republic of China about to perish? That may be an overstatement. But Taiwan is definitely sinking to the level of a Third World nation. That is the harsh reality we must face.

In April, the Hong Kong based China Review magazine published a special edition dedicated to the cross-Strait peace agreement. It identified issues relevant to cross-Strait relations. It listed what ought to be in a peace agreement. It drew a map showing how to reach a peace agreement. It proposed a one China framework. It urged the two sides to free their thinking, remain realistic, and face facts. The two sides must seek consensus, win-win,
and process-orientation. They must value people, cooperation, and good faith.
In particular, they must be pragmatic, forward-looking, and acknowledge the existence of the Republic of China. Mainland scholars now have greater goodwill and understanding regarding this matter. The Ma administration is currently mired in internal political turmoil. It is totally preoccupied, and can barely take care of itself. All it can do is view the good intentions of the Mainland as it would a distant rainbow.

Lee Teng-hui and Chen Shui-bian to the contrary notwithstanding, both sides want a cross-Strait peace agreement. Lien Chan and Ma Ying-jeou have repeatedly urged a bilateral peace agreement. Just before the 2012 presidential election, Ma Ying-jeou yet again proposed a cross-Strait peace agreement. Later on however, he quickly backed away from it, by adding all sorts of preconditions, including "sufficient public support, national need, and legislative oversight." On the Chinese mainland, Jiang Zemin and Hu Jingtao also urged the two sides to end hostilities and reach a peace agreement.
After Xi Jinping assumed power the CCP 18th National Party Congress report
said a cross-Strait peace agreement would promote the peaceful development of cross-Strait relations. This showed that the two sides are currently, or were at one time, willing to sign a peace agreement. Alas, no progress has been made so far.

The the CCP's current policy toward Taiwan is peaceful development, and "The two sides are one family."  This is unlikely to change in the near future.
That does not mean the Mainland has no timetable or expectations regarding cross-Strait relations. Everyone in Beijing feels a tremendous sense of urgency
about peace agreements and related issues. Some argue that the process should be like putting on a hat. The two sides should reach an agreement on basic principles and immediately sign a peace agreement. Other issues, such as military security mutual trust mechanisms and the cessation of hostilities can be addressed later. Others argue that the process should be like stacking wood.
The two sides should proceed from the bottom-up, from large to small, until they reach a peace agreement.

For Taiwan, a cross-Strait peace agreement implies eventual reunification.
But Beijing realizes that peace is an ongoing process. Beijing recognizes Taipei's shared jurisdiction and sovereignty. Will people on both sides accept divided rule and shared sovereignty? If they can, this will stabilize cross-Strait relations within the established framework. In turn, this will secure unity and stability within the region and cross-Strait peace. A peace agreement is of course worth the effort. But before the two sides can sign a peace agreement
much homework remains to be done. The political status of the two sides must be defined. The matter of international intervention must be addressed. Issues such as the cessation of hostilities, the establishment of security and mutual trust, international activities, the mechanics of the signing ceremony, and the mechanic of implemention have yet to be clarified. As this newspaper has advocated before, a preliminary KMT/CCP peace agreement is worth considering.

Cross-Strait relations will not change as a result of the student protests. The current political climate may be difficult. But President Ma must remain true to his principles. The government agencies in charge and the SEF should handle the matter calmly and rationally, pragmatically and progressively.
They should adopt a phased process, beginning with the easy and proceeding to the difficult, beginning with economics and proceeding to politics. 
They should assess the situation, promote cross-Strait exchanges and establish a pragmatic process. They should not rule out the signing of a peace agreement. If anything, they must expedite it. They should take the initiative to put forward their own ideas, win the support of the international community and public opinion. Mainland agencies need to understand the political and social forces on Taiwan, and how they differ from those on the Mainland. Progress in cross-Strait relations is currently difficult. In the spirit of "The two sides are one family" the Mainland must be patient. The Mainland has already invested considerable resources on Taiwan. But it has yet to win hearts and minds on Taiwan. The Mainland must not give up. It should dig more deeply.
It must learn how to make people on Taiwan like and know the Mainland.

A cross-Strait peace agreement will require consensus. Achieving an internal consensus on both sides, as well as among East Asian nations with a strategic interest will not be easy. The authorities on both sides must remain true to their principles. They must pursue their ideals, free their minds, be realistic, cautious, and discreet.

社論－兩岸和平發展道路不能延宕
2014年05月06日 04:09 中國時報 本報訊

馬英九總統表示，兩岸目前要談的「兩岸和平協議」一度是兩岸共同的願望，李、扁二人姑且不論，連戰、馬英九也曾經多次提及兩岸簽署和平協議的主張。中國大陸的江澤民、胡錦濤二人過去也曾主張兩岸結束敵對狀態、達成和平協議。（本報系資料照片）
馬英九總統表示，兩岸目前要談的「兩岸和平協議」一度是兩岸共同的願望，李、扁二人姑且不論，連戰、馬英九也曾經多次提及兩岸簽署和平協議的主張。中國大陸的江澤民、胡錦濤二人過去也曾主張兩岸結束敵對狀態、達成和平協議。（本報系資料照片）

太陽花運動後，各種街頭抗爭活動紛至沓來，其實這是多年沉痾的總爆發，冰凍三尺並非一日之寒。自李、扁以降，台灣朝野勇於內鬥，加上政客蓄意操弄，民粹坐大的結果，台灣失去了近30年的寶貴時光，已成為周邊國家的反面教材。當國際媒體發出警訊，擔心台灣的未來要在街頭決定，當國內學者悲觀的指出，台灣已經淪入惡性循環、向下沉淪的困境而不可自拔時，坦白的說，長此以往，如果說中華民國正在覆亡的過程中掙扎或許言重，但台灣往第三世界國家方向沉淪幾乎無可避免，我們必須誠實面對當前的困境。

香港《中國評論》月刊，於4月間推出專輯討論兩岸和平協議相關問題，提出有關兩岸關係的定位、和平協議應有的內容、達成協議的路徑圖，在認知方面，提出在一中框架下，兩岸應解放思想、實事求是，本著兩岸共同決定、兩岸雙贏、過程導向、以民為本、善意合作原則等，尤其在中華民國存在問題上的認知，既務實又前瞻，代表大陸學者對台灣「善意的理解」程度的增加。但對目前陷於內政動盪、無暇他顧的馬政府來說，可能自顧不暇，只能把大陸的善意當成遠在天邊的彩虹。

兩岸和平協議一度是兩岸共同的願望，李、扁二人姑且不論，連戰、馬英九也曾經多次提及兩岸簽署和平協議的主張，2012年總統大選前，馬英九再主動提出兩岸和平協議一事，但後來一路退守，又加上「民意支持、國家需要、國會監督」等前提。中國大陸的江澤民、胡錦濤二人過去也曾主張兩岸結束敵對狀態、達成和平協議。習近平當家後，在中共的十八大報告中提到，協商達成兩岸和平協議，開創兩岸關係和平發展新前景。在在表明兩岸目前，或至少曾經都有簽署和平協議的意願，但迄今未見任何實質進展。

和平發展、兩岸一家親是當前中共對台政策主軸，今後相當一段時期內不會輕易改變，但這不表示大陸對兩岸關係的進展與節奏沒有主張，北京各界對於和平協議與其他相關議題的討論與推動仍然有急迫感。有人主張應以戴帽子方式，先確定原則，直接簽署和平協議，其他的問題，如建立軍事安全互信機制，結束敵對狀態都可迎刃而解，也有人主張用堆積木方法，由下而上、由小而大，最後再簽署和平協議。

對台灣而言，和平協議若意味著兩岸終將統一，但北京確認是一個持續發展的和平過程，這就隱涵了北京對台北治權的承認與主權的分享，分治與分享的過程若能讓兩岸民眾滿意，將有助於兩岸關係穩定在一定的框架之內，這又會對兩岸的和平統一與區域安全的穩定產生正面的助益，簽署和平協議自然值得努力以赴。但在兩岸真正簽署和平協議之前，仍有太多的功課得做，有關兩岸定位、國際干預、結束敵對狀態、安全互信、國際活動空間、協議如何簽署、如何落實實質內容這些問題都有待進一步加以釐清，而本報過去所提，由國共先行簽署和平協議的主張也值得列入思考。

兩岸關係大局不會因部分學生的抗拒而改變，當前政治環境雖然艱困，馬總統仍應堅持理念，政府相關各部門及海基會應抱持冷靜理性、務實漸進、分階段處理、由易而難、先經後政的態度和立場，審時度勢務實推動兩岸交流與既定進程。對和平協議的討論與簽署，不但不應排斥，更應該適時、主動提出自己的構想，爭取國際社會和輿論的支持。大陸相關部門也需要理解台灣政治力與社會力運作與大陸的本質性不同，要對當前兩岸關係進展的困難，本著「兩岸一家親」態度表現更大的耐心，大陸對台工作已投入很多資源，卻未如願爭取到台灣的人心，大陸不但不應退縮，反而須更認真研究「如何讓台灣人認識大陸、喜歡大陸」。

簽署和平協議需要兩岸共識、兩岸內部共識及東亞戰略利益相關國家共識，這決不是一件簡單工程。兩岸當局要把握原則，追求理想，解放思想、實事求是，更要摸著石頭過河，小心應對。