The Final Mile on the Road to the Presidency

The Final Mile on the Road to the Presidency
China Times editorial (Taipei, Taiwan, ROC)
A Translation
May 27, 2014

Summary: The movie "KANO" includes a classic line. "Do not think about winning. Think about not losing." Tsai Ing-wen and other presidential hopefuls may wish to consider the relevance of this to the 2016 presidential race. Elections are of course important for political parties and politicians. But Taiwan's future is more important. "Do not think about winning the presidency. Think about not losing Taiwan." If politicians were to think this way, and showed voters on Taiwan they were in earnest, voters would sit up and take note

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The results of the Democratic Progressive Party chairmanship election are out. Not surprisingly, Tsai Ing-wen won. The election was a prelude to the 2016 presidential election. Over the coming two years can Tsai Ing-wen achieve what she failed to achieve during the 2012 presidential election? Can she complete the final mile to her destination? Tsai Ing-wen has taken over as party chairman. How much will change? We may wish to consider the following points.

First, can Tsai Ing-wen make the transition from cotton candy to ginseng fruit? In other words, from fluff to substance?

Politicians often suffer a peculiar fate. Over time, their greatest strengths become their geatest weaknesses, and the cause of their downfall.

When Tsai Ing-wen rose to prominence on the political stage, her image as an expert and scholar won plaudits. Tsai Ing-wen had a unique way of making her points. This enabled her to avoid political damage on key issues. She made skillful use of ambiguity, making it impossible for others to find anything to attack. As long as she avoided any major blunders, her continued popularity was assured.

As a result, Tsai Ing-wen's policy proposals were often like cotton candy. They had just a touch of sweetness. People assumed they had tasted something rich in flavor. But upon closer scrutiny they found that her arguments were often nothing more than hot air. They had no core, and lacked any constructive solutions to problems.

At first, her unique style was highly appealing. But as time went by, people felt starved and undernourished. That was why during the 2012 elections, critics described Tsai Ing-wen as "kong xin cai," aka "water spinach," a leafy green vegetable hollow at the center. This image significantly undermined Tsai's election prospects.

Nothing frightens politicians more than the prospect that their political tricks have become outdated. Will Tsai Ing-wen cling to her cotton candy strategy over the next two years? Will she remain ambiguous on important issues? Will she bob and weave to avoid political damage? If so, her "kong xin cai" reputation is likely to return. It is likely to become her Achilles heel and prevent her from completing the final mile.

Tsai Ing-wen is clearly aware of the problem. During the party chairmanship election she advocated "constitutional reform." She advocated lowering the threshold for public referenda and changing the election system. These two ideas provoked political backlash and some debate over their pros and cons. But leave aside the details for the moment. This time Tsai Ing-wen has advocated some relatively concrete policy proposals. Concrete policy proposals are the beginning of policy debate. If Tsai Ing-wen is willing to subject herself to public scrutiny, this will help ensure rational debate.

Does that mean that henceforth Tsai Ing-wen's policy proposals will all be substance instead of fluff? Ginseng fruit instead of cotton candy? Will she confront controversy head on? Or is party chair Tsai Ing-wen merely putting on a show? We will have to wait and see.

Second, can Tsai Ing-wen stop criticizing Ma Ying-jeou, and instead surpass Ma Ying-jeou?

We are not saying she must not criticize. We are merely saying she should not criticize merely to criticize, She can criticize Ma Ying-jeou, but her criticism should be fair. We are saying that she should attempt to surpass him. She should focus on what is beneficial to Taiwan, rather than stubbornly oppose everything. She should transcend politics by helping Ma Ying-jeou. If she did that she would do more than merely help Ma Ying-jeou. She would help Taiwan.

Consider the Sunflower Student Movement. The DPP launched a one-sided attack against the government. It ignored a fundamental problem. The Sunflower Student Movement's street violence harmed more than just the Ma administration. It paralyzed the Legislative Yuan, disrupted the Executive Yuan, and thumbed its nose at representative democracy. As the largest opposition party, the DPP must remember that it too is a link in the chain of representative democracy. One day the DPP could return to power. Today the DPP is applying a certain standard for the Sunflower Student Movement. When it encounters a similar situation in the future, its integrity will be put to the test. We have a simple question for the DPP. If the Democratic Progressive Party returns to power, and 200 students occupy the Executive Yuan, will the DPP expel them?

Consider policy. Tsai Ing-wen has taken over as party chair. Major policy battles are raging in the legislature over the STA, the "Draft Law for Cross-Strait Agreement Oversight" and Free Trade Zones. Does Tsai Ing-wen intend to deal with these as party factional disputes? Or as matters affecting Taiwan's larger interests? Will Tsai Ing-wen repeat the mistakes of the 2012 presidential election? Will she admit being mistaken about ECFA, and switch from vehement opposition to unconditional acceptance? That remains to be seen.

The movie "KANO" includes a classic line. "Do not think about winning. Think about not losing." Tsai Ing-wen and other presidential hopefuls may wish to consider the relevance of this to the 2016 presidential race. Elections are of course important for political parties and politicians. But Taiwan's future is more important.

"Do not think about winning the presidency. Think about not losing Taiwan." If politicians were to think this way, and showed voters on Taiwan they were in earnest, voters would sit up and take note.

社論－走總統大位最後一哩路
2014年05月27日 04:10

民進黨黨主席選舉結果出爐，不意外的，蔡英文勝出。這也掀開了2016總統大選的序幕，蔡英文能不能在接下來兩年走完她2012總統大選時未走完的最後一哩路呢？端看接任黨主席後的蔡英文，會給大家看到多少的改變？不妨從以下角度觀察。

首先，蔡英文能否從棉花糖變成人參果？

政治人物有時會遇到一種宿命，原來為自己大大加分的優點，經過一段時間後，就會變成致敗缺點。

蔡英文剛在政壇崛起時，專業學者的知性形象，為她加分不少。蔡英文特有的邏輯論述方式，總是讓她能在關鍵議題上閃過會讓她受傷的稜角，擅用曖昧模糊的話術，讓別人找不到打點，只要不犯錯，便能持盈保泰地累積自己的人氣。

也因此，蔡英文的主張，常常就像一團棉花糖，帶著一點甜味，讓人感覺好像有那麼一點好味道、有一點吸引力，但仔細研究，又會發現，她的論點常常柔柔軟軟的沒有內核，缺少解決問題的建設性。

剛開始，這樣的論述模式，頗為討喜，但時間一久，就會讓人覺得空洞貧乏。這也是為什麼在2012選舉時，外界會以「空心菜」形容蔡英文，這個形象，也確實對當時蔡英文的選情構成重大影響。

政治領袖最忌招數用老，蔡英文在接下兩年，若還採取棉花糖策略，對重要議題以曖昧話術閃避打點，那麼「空心菜」的形象很可能再度成為蔡英文的阿基里斯之踵，威脅她的最後一哩路。

顯然，蔡英文已注意到這個問題，當選黨主席就拋出「憲政改革」，提出了降低公投門檻與修改選制兩項訴求。這兩個主張，都有一定的政治後座力，在政策上的利弊參陳，但我們先不進入這兩項訴求細部的政策論辯，至少從策略上言，蔡英文這次拋出的議題相對具體，從公共討論的角度看，意見具體化，代表政策辯論的開始，也代表蔡英文願意接受檢驗，這有助於台灣形塑一個理性的公共討論氛圍。

這是否意謂著蔡英文以後在政治與政策訴求上，將從棉花糖改拋有實有肉的人參果，不迴避爭議，正面迎戰？還是，這不過是蔡英文甫就任黨主席，曇花一現的起手式？有待進一步觀察。

其次，蔡英文能否從批評馬英九，昇華成為超越馬英九？

這裡指的不要批評，是指不要為批評而批評，不是不可以批評馬英九，而是要公道的批評。而這裡指的超越，意思是在對台灣有利的事情上，不要死守反對黨立場，而要以一個政治家的高度，反過來助馬英九一臂之力，因為那不是幫馬英九，是幫台灣。

以太陽花學運期間為例，民進黨一面倒攻擊政府作為，沒有思考一個最根本的問題，太陽花衝撞的不只是馬英九政府，嚴格來說，太陽花癱瘓國會、衝進行政院，也挑戰了代議民主體制。身為最大在野黨的民進黨不要忘了，自己也是代議民主體制的一環。更別說，有朝一日，民進黨可能重返執政，今時今日民進黨對太陽花學運的態度，未來遇到類似的情境時，也會被拿出來做一致性的檢驗。一個簡單的問題：如果民進黨執政後發生兩百位學生攻占行政院，民進黨要不要驅離？

在政策面上，蔡英文接任黨主席，正值《兩岸服務貿易協議》、《兩岸協議監督條例草案》及《自由經濟示範區特別條例草案》等重大政策在立法院決戰，蔡英文是要以黨派對抗的角度來看這些政策，還是以台灣利益的角度來看這些政策？蔡英文會不會重蹈2012選總統時，在ECFA議題上從大力批判變成概括承受的覆轍？這也將成為觀察指標。

電影《KANO》裡的經典台詞：「不要想著贏，要想不能輸！」可以提供包括蔡英文在內等有志於2016總統大位的政治人物參考。選舉對政黨或政治人物當然重要，但台灣的前途與未來更重要。

「不要想著贏得總統，要想著不能輸掉台灣！」如果政治人物能做此想，以實際作為展現對台灣的真心，選民雪亮的眼睛也必會收在眼底。