Bolster the Fundamentals of Cross-Strait Relations

Bolster the Fundamentals of Cross-Strait Relations
China Times editorial (Taipei, Taiwan, ROC)
A Translation
August 29, 2014

Summary: Chang Hsien-yao's forced resignation has worsened cross-Strait relations. Many cross-Strait negotiations have been severely impacted. In fact, if one were to apply stock market terminology, cross-Strait relations could be described as "lots of noise, but sound fundamentals." The 9th MTA negotiations have been finalized. Talks will resume. They will be held between September 10 and 12. That is the most powerful evidence. As long as the two sides bolster the fundamentals of cross-Strait relations, peaceful development will not be disrupted.

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Chang Hsien-yao's forced resignation has worsened cross-Strait relations. Many cross-Strait negotiations have been severely impacted. In fact, if one were to apply stock market terminology, cross-Strait relations could be described as "lots of noise, but sound fundamentals." The 9th MTA negotiations have been finalized. Talks will resume. They will be held between September 10 and 12. That is the most powerful evidence. As long as the two sides bolster the fundamentals of cross-Strait relations, peaceful development will not be disrupted.

In recent years, cross-Strait relations have been been good overall. The relationship however, is subject to fluctuations. It is often interspersed with shocks, just like stock market movements. Every so often cross-Strait relations will be subjected to a barrage of noise that upsets the trend. Fortunately, cross-Strait relations have an excellent self-governing mechanism. Each eruption of bad news is invariably followed by a strong consolidation that absorbs the shock and gets it back on track. Despite Chang Hsien-yao's resignation, cross-Strait relations will probably proceed unabated.

The vitality of cross-Strait relations depends primarily on sound fundamentals. The chief support for these fundamentals is private sector cross-Strait mutual dependence. This includes complementary and mutually beneficial cross-Strait industrial cooperation. That is why the Chang Hsien-yao incident will not hamper either official negotiations or cross-Strait private sector exchanges and communication.

This is particularly evident in the increasing number of Mainland tourists coming to Taiwan. The number of Taiwan cities that Mainland tourists can travel about in freely has also been increased. Mainland residents enjoy visiting Taiwan. Taiwan businesses need Mainland tourists. This is mutual dependence. In addition, cross-Strait industrial cooperation has not ceased. The Chang Hsien-yao incident has become a media circus. But the cross-Strait information industry and technical standards fora continue unabated. In one fell swoop, agreements have been reached on 30 different cooperative R&D and industry standards, including 5G, ultra-high-definition television, cloud computing, Smart City, and other advanced category items.

Because these fundamentals remain strong, despite ups and down in cross-Strait relations over the years, the overall trend has remained onward and upward. When the Democratic Progressive Party was in power, cross-Strait political relations were poor. Nevertheless the two sides struggled to meet the needs of the private sector. This led to many new forms of exchange and cooperation. Direct charter flights were perhaps the most representative.

By comparison, the Chang Hsien-yao incident has merely led cross-Strait political relations into a fog. It has not seriously undermined them. Authorities on both sides must bolster the fundamentals of cross-Strait relations. They must ensure a willingness to continue private sector exchanges and cooperation. They must avoid political entanglements, and avoid artificially suppressing private sector activity. As long as the fundamentals remain sound, the bad news will pass, enabling cross-Strait relations to make a firm market recovery.

When private sector activities are freed from interference, official cross-Strait consultations can remain on schedule. The MTA negotiations scheduled for next month will affect Taiwan's economic development and integration into the international realm. The SEF and ARATS have decided to complete negotiations before the legislature reconvenes. This represents a high degree of tacit cooperation. It shows that cross-Strait officials remain unaffected by the Chang Hsien-yao incident. It also shows that follow-up negotiations on ECFA continued unabated. They have not been disrupted by the Sunflower Student Movement. 

Taiwan's top priority is to complete MTA negotiations by the end of the year. The ECFA related dispute settlement mechanism should be approved simultaneously. Once these two agreements have been signed, the ECFA framework will be ready to go. It will become a powerful engine for promoting healthy cross-Strait economic and trade relations. It will be the greatest guarantor of peaceful cross-Strait relations.

But more homework is needed. Last year we signed the STA. The legislature is about to vote. The Cross-Strait Agreement Oversight Regulations Bill should help STA passage. But the legislative process remains hobbled. In this regard, the government must display courage. It must seek results that are workable and attainable in the short term, as soon as possible.

Cross-Strait negotiations are underway. They are not confined to ECFA related agreements. Others are less visible. One is the establishment of representative offices. Another is Mainland support enabling Taiwan to join international and regional economic organizations. Negotiation over these two topics and future ECFA related agreements should proceed hand in hand.

Among these, Taiwan's membership in international and regional economic organizations will further strengthen the fundamentals of cross-Strait relations. They will revitalize Taiwan's economy. They will influence cross-Strait economic and trade cooperation. This will extend to the global economic system. They will add value to cross-Strait economic and trade relations, and expand the two sides' area of common interest. We hope these consultations will lead to a breakthrough in the near future.

Noise is interfering with cross-Strait relations. But the fundamentals remain strong, We must clearly understand the impact of the Chang Hsien-yao incident. The two sides must co-manage the fundamentals of cross-Strait relations. Only then can we ensure continued peaceful development.

社論－共同鞏固兩岸關係基本盤
2014年08月29日 04:10
本報訊

張顯耀「被辭職」事件發生至今，兩岸關係雪上加霜，雙方諸多協商談判似乎受到嚴重衝擊。其實，這種情況，若用股票市場術語來解讀，可說當前兩岸關係是「消息面」不好，但「基本面」仍然堅實。兩岸第9次貨貿談判已敲定於9月10日至12日復談，就是最有力的明證。兩岸只要共同照顧好兩岸關係的基本面，和平發展的格局就不會受到干擾。

近年來的兩岸關係，大局是好的，但發展過程卻是波動的，其間常穿插震盪情況，彷如股價指數變動慣有的表現。也就是說，兩岸關係每好一陣子，就會突然生出若干壞消息，擾亂它的發展走勢。幸好，兩岸關係具有良好的自我調適功能，每次被壞消息衝擊時，總能強勢盤整、消化衝擊波，重新回到發展的軌道上。這一次碰上張顯耀被辭職事件，兩岸關係的表現應該也是一樣。

兩岸關係的生命力，主要是靠它所具有的堅實基本面。而這種基本面，最大的支撐，是「兩岸民間互相需要」的基本格局，包括兩岸產業的互補互利。所以，張顯耀事件發生後，不論是官方的協商談判，還是兩岸民間的交往和交流，都沒有受到衝擊。

其中特別明顯的是陸客來台觀光人數持續擴大，且大陸開放赴台自由行的城市，剛又增加了一批。大陸民眾喜愛來台旅遊，而台灣市面商家則需要陸客捧場，這就是互相需要。另外，兩岸產業合作，近來也沒有停頓。譬如，日前在張顯耀事件快速發酵聲中，兩岸仍照常舉行了信息產業和技術標準論壇，一口氣達成30項合作研發及制定標準之共識，內容涵蓋5G、超高清電視、雲端運算、智慧城市等先進類項。

由於有這種「基本面」因素的強力支撐，兩岸關係多年來雖走過很多坎坷的路段，但總的走勢仍是往前與往上，而沒有掉下過山谷。即使是民進黨執政時期，兩岸政治關係很差，但雙方仍勉力順應民間需求，促成了諸多新的交流合作成果，其中，「包機直航」的實現，堪稱為代表作。

相較之下，張顯耀事件只是使兩岸政治關係「陷入迷霧」，並沒有讓它「變得很差」。只是，當前雙方政府，仍應全力顧好兩岸關係的「基本面」，也就是細心呵護雙方民間交流合作的意願和成果，切莫因政治糾葛，而人為抑制民間相關活動。只要這個基本面保持堅實狀態，相信消息面的利空很快就會「鈍化」，而使兩岸關係「行情」恢復堅挺。

在民間活動沒有受到任何干擾的情況下，我們又喜見兩岸官方的協商進程如期進行。關係台灣經濟發展以及進軍國際區域整合的貨貿協議談判預定在下月展開，海基海協兩會決定趕在立法院開議之前完成協商，就是一項高度默契的合作。一方面說明兩岸官方不受張顯耀事件的干擾，一方面持續兩岸ECFA後續談判的進度，不受太陽花學運以來的紛擾所影響。

台灣的當務之急是爭取在今年底前完成兩岸貨品貿易協議、兩岸ECFA相關爭端解決機制協議之洽簽工作，同時進行簽署。該兩協議簽署後，兩岸ECFA架構體系將燦然大備，成為推動兩岸經貿穩健發展的強力引擎，也是兩岸關係和平發展的最大保證。

不過，當前我方要做的功課比較多，因為《兩岸服務貿易協議》去年年中簽署後，即在立法院卡關迄今，而本有助於《服貿協議》解套的兩岸協議監督條例，立法工作至目前仍無法順利進行。對此，我方政府應展現魄力，盡速採取有效舉措來強力推動，務期在短期內獲致具體成果。

兩岸當前已進行協商談判的議題，並不只ECFA相關協議，其他比較有眉目的，是兩岸互設辦事處及大陸支持台灣加入國際區域經濟整合；這兩大議題之協商工作，未來應和ECFA相關協議之洽簽齊頭並進。

其中，台灣加入國際區域經濟整合有助於進一步強化兩岸關係的基本面，因其不但能為台灣帶來新的經濟增長活力，也可把兩岸經貿合作的影響力「輻射」到全球經濟體系，而為兩岸經貿加值，並擴大雙方的共同利益。盼望這項協商，也能在近期內出現突破性的進展。

雖然兩岸之間有不少的消息面干擾，但基本盤大致穩固，張顯耀事件的衝擊讓我們更清楚的認知到，兩岸關係的基本面需要兩岸共同管理、共同照顧，和平發展的大局才不致生變。