Tsai Ing-wen, Is DPP Obstinacy the Result of Ignorance, Deceit, or Cold-Bloodedness?

Tsai Ing-wen, Is DPP Obstinacy the Result of Ignorance, Deceit, or Cold-Bloodedness?
United Daily News editorial (Taipei, Taiwan, ROC)
A Translation
August 7, 2014

Summary: Taiwan, Mainland China, and South Korea are in competition. The street corner is now filled with propene gas. Before it explodes, no one realizes who is responsible. Once the explosion has occurred, everyone knows who made the hole in the pipeline. So the question for the DPP, and especially DPP Chairman Tsai Ing-wen is this: Is your obstinacy the result of ignorance, deceit, or cold-bloodedness?

Full Text Below:

The PRC-ROK FTA will be signed within the year. The clock is ticking. If the ROC fails to respond with an STA, economic disaster will follow. When an unknown gas seeps out of an underground culvert, and its stench fills the streets, failure to respond will inevitably result in catastrophe.

This Tuesday, the Cross-Strait Economic Cooperation Committee met in Beijing. SEF Vice Chairman Chang Hsien-yao said that Taiwan's industrial sector is worried. The PRC and ROK have accelerated negotiations over their FTA. Any advantage the ROC would have derived from ECFA will be nullified. Since the STA is stuck in the Legislative Yuan, the two sides should continue negotiations on the MTA. ARATS vice president Zheng Lizhong said the Mainland is willing to allow Taiwan businesses on the Mainland "set up earlier in order to enjoy more advantages." But he also made clear that "The Mainland cannot halt its opening to the outside world just for Taiwan." These two spokespersons reveal the reason the Ma administration, and even Beijing, is worried.

Coincidentally, the day before Chang and Zheng spoke, a Wall Street Journal editorial commented on this very issue. It said that to mitigate the impact of the PRC-ROK FTA, the ROC should pass the STA and MTA, to avoid further isolation resulting from lowered trade barriers among neighboring countries. The editorial was entitled, "Taiwan Leaves Itself Behind."

The PRC and ROK are about to sign an FTA. If the FTA and MTA are not signed, the trade and economic losses for the ROC are readily calculable. The ITRI's latest report notes that once the PRC-ROK FTA goes into effect, increased reliance on Korean industry will result in a 650 billion NT decline in Taiwan's manufacturing output, over the next three to five years. This does not include the service industry. This does not include any future crisis in cross-Strait relations. This does not include the impact on Taiwan's eligibility for membership in the TPP and RCEP. This does not include the political marginalization caused by economic marginalization. It is no exaggeration to say that the entire structure is about to come tumbling down.

Unfortunately the DPP has decided to prevent passage of the "Cross-Strait Agreement Oversight Regulations," to prevent passage of the FTA, to prevent passge of the MTA, and to prevent passage of the FEPZ special regulations. DPP legislative caucus whip Hsiao Bi-khim said that consideration of such bills during the Kaohsiung gas explosion would be "too cold-blooded." But others have a different take. Taiwan is about to suffer an "economic and trade gas explosion" from ROC, PRC, ROK competition. They note that failure to accelerate passage of the necessary bills is "far more cold-blooded." We can expect the "economic and trade gas explosion" to be a thousand times more lethal than the gas explosion in Kaohsiung.

Invoking the Kaohsiung gas explosion as an excuse to halt consideration of proposed bills is a total non-sequitur. Before the gas explosion, the DPP obstructed the bill for over a year. The DPP opposes the bill for three reasons. One. Ignorance. Gains and losses from economic and trade policy are quantifiable. The aforementioned ITRI report cited a loss of 650 billion NT. Other public institutions have also issued quantitative analyses. Can the DPP make an informed rebuttal of these? Chairman Tsai Ing-wen should ask Lin Chuan to go online and take a look. Two. Deceit. The DPP knows it cannot rebut these numbers and the catastrophe they portend. Instead, they are engaging in pretense and using these bills as political bargaining chips. Their anti-China sentiment has led them to harm Taiwan and oppose Taiwan's best interests. Three. Cold-bloodedness. The DPP knows full well that irrational trouble-making will have catastrophic consequences for Taiwan's economy and trade. But it persists in pushing Taiwan toward that end. It is "cold-blooded," It is indifferent to whether Taiwan lives or dies The DPP is like the phony mother in the fable of King Solomon and the baby. The DPP is willing to cut the baby in half to prove it is the mother. If this is not "too cold-blooded," what is?

Current competition between Taiwan, the Mainland, and South Korea truly does add up to an explosive atmosphere moments before detonation. If manufacturers do not realize that the streets are filled with propene, that is ignorance. If they know they are, but insist "Those pipelines aren't mine!" then it is deceit. If they know the gas is about to explode, but deliberately make a hole in the pipeline and watch propene spill out everywhere, that is "too cold-blooded." By now the DPP cannot possibly still be unaware of the consequences. Yet it persists in political manipulation and self-deception. How is this any different than making a hole in the pipeline and watching as propene leaks all over the street? How is this any different from cold-blooded murderer?

The DPP has vowed to return to power. It claims to be the mother of that infant known as Taiwan. But a real mother's first priority is always to preserve the baby's life and health. What is the point of fighting over the baby if it gets cut in two? Globalization is here to stay. Even Zheng Lizhong knows that "The Mainland cannot halt its liberalization to the outside world just for Taiwan." Does the DPP truly intend to let itself be hijacked by the Sunflower Student Movement? Does it truly intend to cease coopetition with Mainland China and South Korea? Does it truly intend to cease liberalization, globalization, and integration? Does it truly not understand that such cold-blooded policies harm Taiwan and are anti-Taiwan?

Taiwan, Mainland China, and South Korea are in competition. The street corner is now filled with propene gas. Before it explodes, no one realizes who is responsible. Once the explosion has occurred, everyone knows who made the hole in the pipeline. So the question for the DPP, and especially DPP Chairman Tsai Ing-wen is this: Is your obstinacy the result of ignorance, deceit, or cold-bloodedness?

請問蔡英文：這是無知、欺騙或冷血？
【聯合報╱社論】
2014.08.07 02:28 am

中韓將在年內簽訂ＦＴＡ，此刻彷彿已經聽得到滴答倒數計時；倘若台灣不能以兩岸服貿及貨貿協議因應，勢將引爆一場非常慘重的經濟災難。此猶如已經聞得到地下箱涵溢洩的不明氣體瀰漫整個街道，倘若因應失當，必生巨災慘禍。

本周二，兩岸經濟合作委員會在北京舉行。海基會副董事長張顯耀說，台灣產業界擔心，中韓加速協商ＦＴＡ，台灣原在ＥＣＦＡ簽署後的超前優勢將被逆轉；因而，在服貿協議卡在立院時，兩岸仍應續商貨貿協議。海協會副會長鄭立中則說，大陸願意讓台灣業者在大陸「早一步布局，多一些優勢」，「但不會因為台灣而停止大陸對外開放的腳步」。由二人的發言可見，不但馬政府為情勢憂心，北京也為台灣操心。

巧合的是，就在張鄭發言的前一天，《華爾街日報》社論指出，為減輕中韓ＦＴＡ的影響，台灣應通過兩岸服貿及貨貿協議，以免在周邊國家降低貿易障礙之際更加孤立。這篇社論的標題是：「台灣讓自己落後」。

中韓即將簽訂ＦＴＡ之際，兩岸服貿及貨貿協議若簽不成，對台灣而言，其經貿損失其實是一個可以量化的知識。工研院的最新報告指出，中韓ＦＴＡ生效後，隨著韓國產業對其深化利用的進度，在未來三至五年內，台灣製造業產值衰退的金額可達六千五百億元。這還未計入服務業，也未計入未來兩岸關係可能失控的危機，亦未計入對台灣加入ＴＰＰ與ＲＣＥＰ的影響，更未計入經貿安全邊緣化帶動的政治安全邊緣化。若將此喻稱為危如累卵的情勢，應非過當。

但是，民進黨卻焦土杯葛《兩岸協議監督條例》，因而卡住了《服貿協議》，又卡住了《貨貿協議》，再阻擾《自由經濟示範區特別條例》……。民進黨立院黨鞭蕭美琴說，高雄氣爆，此時若審議這類法案，即是「太冷血了」；但相對意見則說，眼看著台灣即將因台、中、韓三方的條約競爭而發生「經貿大氣爆」，若再不加速審議這些救命法案，豈不更是「太冷血了」？可以預期，那場經貿大氣爆的後果，將千百倍慘重於高雄氣爆。

藉高雄氣爆來停議相關法案，根本不成理由。在氣爆發生前，民進黨已杯葛了一年多。民進黨的反對立場，可從三個層次來說。一、無知：經貿的損益皆是可以量化的知識，民進黨對前述工研院的六千五百億元報告，及其他公信機構所發布的量化分析，能否提出知識性的反駁？這些，蔡英文主席命林全上網看一看即可。二、欺騙：民進黨對這些量化知識所預測的災難性後果不能提出反駁，而只是自欺欺人地將這些法案當成政治籌碼來杯葛，以致將「反中」操弄成「害台」、「反台」。三、冷血：民進黨明知無理取鬧將導致台灣經貿發生災難性後果，卻執意要將台灣推向那個下場，其心態是一種不顧台灣生死的「冷血」。此時，民進黨正像那個在所羅門王前爭嬰兒的假母親，主張將嬰兒切成兩半來證明其假母親的地位，這是不是「太冷血了」？

眼前台、中、韓三方經貿條約的競爭關係，確實猶如「大氣爆」發生前的景象。若廠家不知丙烯已瀰漫街道，那是無知；若明知，卻說那不是我鋪的管線，則是欺騙；若明知會爆炸，卻故意在管線上挖個洞看著丙烯溢洩，那就是「太冷血了」。此時民進黨當然不是不知道後果的嚴重性，而是為了政治操作而自欺欺人，這與在管線上挖洞看著丙烯溢洩的冷血凶手有何兩樣？

民進黨矢言重返執政，因而是欲爭奪台灣之嬰的母親。然而，如果不先保全嬰兒的健康與生命，爭到被自己切成兩半的台灣之嬰又有何用？全球化是今世王道，連鄭立中都知道「不會因為台灣而停止大陸對外開放的腳步」，難道民進黨竟只因一場太陽花事件，就被挾持而決定停止台灣與大陸競合、與韓國競爭、及對外開放而融入全球化的腳步？這豈不是「害台／反台」的冷血政策？

面對台、中、韓三方條約競爭的此刻，猶如站在丙烯瀰漫的街口。未爆炸前，不知向誰究責；一旦發生驚天巨爆，則是誰在管線上挖洞，現在國人都正親眼目睹。請問民進黨，更要請問民進黨主席蔡英文：這究竟是無知、欺騙，還是冷血？