Hong Kong's Occupy Central: Implications for Taiwan

Hong Kong's Occupy Central: Implications for Taiwan
China Times editorial (Taipei, Taiwan, ROC)
A Translation
October 8, 2014

Executive Summary: Hong Kong needs democracy. Taiwan needs dignity. The people of Hong Kong are fighting for democracy, The people of Taiwan are fighting for dignity. Both sides of the Strait and the Hong Kong government are promoting democracy. But they must avoid haste, both in their attitudes and their practices.

Full Text Below:

The Hong Kong Chief Executive election has led to a major controversy. The Hong Kong Student Federation and other pan-democrats initiated the Occupy Central movement. Some college students boycotted classes in response, triggering massive protests, and days of unrest in the streets. The pan-democrats hoped to force the CCP to lift the restrictions on the Hong Kong Chief Executive nomination process. The Hong Kong government initially adopted a hardline stance. It tried to disperse the crowds. But the conflict expanded, and attracted worldwide attention. The USA, the UK, and the EU all issued statements calling for reason and restraint. Mainland officials have reiterated that Hong Kong's affairs are a domestic issue. Beijing firmly opposes any violations of the rule of law in Hong Kong, and any disruptions of social order. It hopes that foreign governments do not send the wrong signals. Beijing has adopted a hardline stance. Apparently room for compromise is limited.

Mainland geopolitical power has increased. Relations between Hong Kong and Taiwan are close. The ROC government is concerned about the situation in Hong Kong. Agencies charged with national security matters have examined the future of Hong Kong and weighed its impact on Taiwan. Premier Jiang Yi Hua told lawmakers that the government supports the democratic aspirations of the people of Hong Kong. It remains optimistic, and hopes that the Hong Kong government will heed the aspirations of the people, remain rational, and exercise moderation. Protest activities hae resulted in injuries. The ROC government has expressed regret. President Ma Ying-jeou also expressed understanding and support. He hoped that the Mainland authorities would handle the matter peacefully and cautiously. He also urged Hong Kongers to find a peaceful and rational means of expressing their demands. Taiwan has expressed support in principle, but wants to avoid improper and untoward interference in Hong Kong's internal affairs.

There has been much rhetoric about how "Today's Hong Kong is tomorrow's Taiwan" on Taiwan. This reveals at least two problems. One. It reflects public fear and distrust of the CCP on Taiwan. It could also be a case of crocodile tears. People may fear that one day Taiwan will be in the same situation as Hong Kong. Two. It reflects some peoples' lack of confidence in Taiwan. Actually, today's Taiwan could be tomorrow's Hong Kong. Taiwan's development has its pros and cons, but its evolution is nevertheless worth studying. Actually, it involves a fundamental question of identity. As the British media has said, Mainland China is not Hong Kong's enemy, it is its future. Hong Kongers must understand this. So must the public on Taiwan. The Mainland is Taiwan's hope and opportunity, not its nightmare and threat. Knowing this will make it easier to find one's way.

Dr. Sun Yat-sen said that human rights are given to us by Heaven. The fight for human rights however, is our own. This is the difference between natural rights and civil rights asserted through revolution. We respect and support the Hong Kong people's fight for their rights, and their desire to determine their own future. But we must also realize that everything in this world has pros and cons. Policy choices often involve trade-offs. Nothing is all good or bad. The Hong Kong protest groups have dared to shout "umbrella revolution" slogans. They have issued an ultimatum to the government, threatening to occupy government offices. By implication, they mean to confront or even overthrow the regime. If so, they must be prepared to pay the price. Their careers, their futures, their economic security are likely to be affected. They may even face prison or injury. After all, "There ain't no such thing as a free lunch."

Beijing and Washington are preparing for the November APEC meeting between Xi Jinping and Barack Obama. Washington will probably raise human rights issues. But Washington has issued two clear signals. One. CCP Foreign Minister Wang Yi visited the United States and spoke with National Security Advisor Susan Rice. Midway through Obama joined the conversation. Two. Washington's response to the events in Hong Kong have been limited to reaffirming its principles and expressing its concern. It has not assumed a high-profile by condemning Beijing. Clearly Washington is looking at the big picture. It does not dare, at least not openly, to have it out with Beijing. This is something everyone must understand. Even a government as powerful as the United States, must weigh its principles, ideals, and values against its national interests. Only when they coincide will the United States wave the banner of morality.

The protests in Hong Kong may grow, or they may soon end peacefully. But the events have harmed Hong Kong's economy and torn society in two. The most likely result of long-term confrontation would be a lose-lose situation. To be fair, the fight for democracy and opposition to Mainland China are two very different matters that must not be confused.

Mankind already knows that all political systems are bad systems. Democracy is a relatively good one. In the long run, its political mechanisms and limits on power are more consistent with the interests of the people. But democracy is a learning process. It requires compromise and dialogue. Democracy requires the rule of law and responsibility. The fight for democracy requires gradualism and reason. No one can claim to represent the truth.

Hong Kong needs democracy. Taiwan needs dignity. The people of Hong Kong are fighting for democracy, The people of Taiwan are fighting for dignity. Both sides of the Strait and the Hong Kong government are promoting democracy. But they must avoid haste, both in their attitudes and their practices.

社論－香港占中對台灣的啟示
2014年10月08日 04:10
本報訊

香港特首普選方案發生重大爭議，學聯等泛民主派人士發動占中，部分大學生罷課響應，引發大規模群眾聚集抗議事件，街頭動盪多日。泛民主派人士希望迫使中共改變對香港特首產生方式的限制，港府最初以強硬態度回應，試圖驅散民眾，衝突一度擴大，引起全世界的關注。美國、英國、歐盟先後發表聲明，呼籲理性自制，中共官方則表示，香港事務為內政問題，北京堅決反對香港地區發生破壞法治、社會安寧的違法行為，希望相關國家謹言慎行，不要發出錯誤的訊號。北京態度強硬，妥協的空間似乎有限。

大陸地緣政治力量崛起後，台港關係更是脣齒相依，政府當然高度關切香港局勢，相信國安單位曾對香港未來的可能發展、影響與衝擊進行過討論及評估。行政院長江宜樺在答覆立法委員質詢時表示，政府支持香港民眾爭取民主的訴求，樂觀其成，希望香港政府能夠傾聽人民的訴求，保持理性、節制。抗爭活動所造成的衝突和受傷，政府也表達了遺憾之意。馬英九總統也對占中行動表達了理解與支持的立場，希望大陸當局和平審慎處理，但也強調港民應用和平理性的方式表達訴求。台灣審慎的表達了原則性的支持，極力避免不當、過當的介入香港內政。

台灣出現不少「今日香港、明日台灣」的說法，至少凸顯了兩個問題。首先，反映出台灣民眾對中共的擔心與不信任，或許也有兔死狐悲的感覺，擔心有朝一日台灣淪入今日香港的處境；二是台灣對自己缺乏信心，不能自信的認定，今日的台灣可望成為明日的香港，台灣的發展經驗不管正反仍有值得學習之處。其實這裡面牽涉到一個最基本的認同問題，就像英國媒體所說，中國是香港的未來而非敵人，港人對此應有體認；同樣的，台灣也必須了解，大陸是台灣的希望與機會，而非夢魘和威脅，認識清楚就容易找到出路。

國父孫中山先生曾經說過，人權是天賦的，民權則要靠爭取而來，這就是所謂的天賦人權與革命民權之別。我們一方面尊重、支持香港民眾爭取自己的權利，決定自己未來的渴望，但大家也應理解，天下任何事情有利有弊，有時只是政策的選擇和優先順序的取捨，沒有絕對的好壞。既然香港抗爭團體敢於喊出「雨傘革命」的口號，並對港府發出最後通牒，主張占領官署，就意味著與體制對抗甚或推翻體制，那麼就要有付出代價的心理準備，自己的事業前途，未來的經濟安全都可能受到影響，甚至還有流血坐牢的可能，畢竟天下沒有白吃的午餐。

中美之間正在為11月亞太經合會上習近平與歐巴馬的會面預為準備，美國屆時或將提出人權問題，但美國已發出兩個明確信號，一是中共外長王毅訪美與國安顧問萊斯會談中間，歐巴馬中途加入談話。二是華府對香港占中事件，僅止於重申原則、表達關切，並未高調譴責北京，顯見美國仍得從戰略高度出發，以大局為重，不敢，至少不願公開和北京撕破臉，全面進行對抗。於此，大家必須體會，即使強如美國，也只有當原則、理想、價值和國家利益相吻合且行動的代價符合美國利益之際，才會高高掛起道德大旗。

香港的抗爭活動仍在持續發展，即或短期內能夠平和落幕，但事件對香港經濟的傷害與社會分化及互不信任已經造成，長期對抗的最可能結果就是雙輸、多輸的局面。持平而論，爭取民主和反中是截然不同的兩件事，不可混為一談。

人類已知的所有政治制度都是壞制度，民主是相對較好的一種，長期而言，其政治運作制度和權力界線都比較符合民眾的利益。但民主也是一個學習、發展、妥協、對話的過程，民主必須在法治及責任中運行，漸進主義其實是爭取民主相對合理的作法，沒有人可以自稱代表真理。

香港需要民主、台灣需要尊嚴，香港民眾在爭取民主、台灣民眾在爭取尊嚴之際，兩岸及香港政府在推動民主建設時，如何避免焦躁的心態和作法，值得慎思。