Industry Crisis Pressing: Partisan Struggles Must End

Industry Crisis Pressing: Partisan Struggles Must End
China Times editorial (Taipei, Taiwan, ROC)
A Translation
October 20, 2014

Executive Summary: Elections are just around the corner. The Legislative Yuan remains mired in partisan bickering. Reversing the industry crisis is the shared responsibility of boththe ruling and opposition parties. This concerns the next 5-10 years of economic development. It does not involve ideology, Yet the necessary legislation remains stalled in the legislature. These bills are not necessarily related to highly sensitive cross-Strait legislation. But they are crucial to Taiwan's survival and development. The people have placed their trust in the two major parties, Can they set aside their prejudices and cooperate, in order to reverse Taiwan's industrial crisis? How will those in charge of the two major parties respond? The peoples' eyes are wide open and watching.

Full Text Below;

The Wei Chuan rancid cooking oil scandal rages on. National attention is now focused on food safety, on how to deal with the aftermath of the crisis. Meanwhile, new economic problems have caught up with us, Global economic concerns have caused European and American stock markets to tumble. The TAIEX has stumbled repeatedly, Add to this the impact of the food safety crisis on consumer confidence. All these factors have undermined an already weak economic recovery. Taiwan's industrial transformation and upgrading has slowed. Its competitiveness is gradually diminishing, Global economic and financial volatility have impacted Taiwan more than South Korea, Japan, Singapore, the ASEAN countries, and other trade rivals, A string of global business cycles have eroded Taiwan's industrial competitiveness. A crisis now looms, The ruling and opposition parties must address this problem. They must work together to end the vicious cycle of declining industrial competitiveness, Otherwise Taiwan faces an increasingly bleak economic future.

Taiwan's industrial crisis involves deep-seated structural problems. Taiwan's main export industries are information and communications technology (ICT). The core problem is the over-emphasis on hardware manufacturing, and the high degree of dependence upon "Taiwan orders, overseas production," and a "Mainland manufacturing" OEM export model. The global ICT industry currently faces large-scale supply chain reshuffling. That and the rapid rise of Mainland industry over the past two years have made Taiwan's ICT industry crisis more serious every day.

This year the domestic ICT industry looked as if it was in recovery. Increased orders and exports led to long unseen prosperity. But we must look more closely. The introduction of Apple's iPhone 6 and the rise of Mainland brand smart phones and tablet PCs, led to a significant increase in orders for Taiwan's foundries. But once the iPhone 6 boom subsides next year, Mainland brand industry orders may be replaced by more Mainland OEM orders. Taiwan's ICT industry crisis would once again rear its head.

Even more worrisome is intense competition from Mainland industries. They pose a macro level threat to many Taiwan companies. TSMC and MediaTek head up Taiwan's semiconductor industry. Their competitiveness puts them head and shoulders above their peers. In the ICT industry, they "hold up half the sky." Now however, they too face growing threats. In June of this year, the Mainland State Council announced a "Development Plan for the Promotion of the Nation's Integrated Circuit Industry." It resolved to establish a 600 billion RMB fund to support the Mainland's semiconductor industry. According to recent news reports, America's largest mobile phone chip maker Qualcomm and the Mainland's largest foundry SMIC, are jointly developing a 20-nanometer manufacturing process. Semiconductor leader Intel has a $1.5 billion USD stake in Unis, the Mainland semiconductor design company. This and other advances in Mainland semiconductor design have seriously impacted Taiwan's semiconductor industry. They could even destroy Taiwan's two leading ICT manufacturers. Can the ruling and opposition parties sit by and do nothing?

Taiwan's second largest export industry is the petrochemical industry. It too is in dire straits. In recent years the petrochemical industry has been buffeted by environmental impact assessments, land acquisition difficulties, public opposition, and other domestic factors. The government decided to halt constrution of the Kuo Kuang Petrochemical Plant. The petrochemical industry is making fewer new investments and equipment upgrades. This leads to decreased competitiveness. Add to this the Kaohsiung gas explosion incident, the closing of the Number Five Naptha Cracking Plant and the Dashe petrochemical industrial zone, and disaster is a foregone conclusion. Whither Taiwan's petrochemical industry? That has become a common question.

Meanwhile, international energy technology breakthroughs also pose a severe competitive challenge for Taiwan's petrochemical industry. U.S. shale oil and gas exploitation and possible future exports, Mainland coal processing technology breakthroughs, international energy prices, and the global development of the petrochemical industry, are having an unprecedented impact. Taiwan companies will be forced to seek survival elsewhere. Formosa Plastics Group gave up on the construction of the Sixth Naptha Cracking Plant. It turned to investments in the US. It is currently involved in a joint venture with the Mainland petrochemical industry to build the Guluei Cracking Plant. This is another sign of Taiwan's petrochemical industry decline. Mainland petrochemical industry production is expanding. It is replacing much of Taiwan's petrochemical exports and petrochemical feedstock for manufacturers and downstream industries. This constitutes a major crisis.

In addition to these two major export industries Taiwan's food industry has been threatened by a string of food safety crises involving plasticizing agents, toxic starches, adulterated rice, Clenbuterol, and rancid oils. The food, catering, and other domestic industries have been seriously impacted. Taiwan's reputation as a Mecca for gourmets and food exports has been undermined. The "Free Enterprise Pilot Zones" (FEPZs) are promoting value-added agriculture centers. These would import agricultural raw materials from the Mainland and elsewhere. After processing on Taiwan, they would be labeled "Made in Taiwan," and sold to the Mainland or abroad. But this has become an impractical dream. Responses to the food industry crises are urgently needed.

Taiwan's service industry also faces transitional challenges, especially education and medical treatment. They face systemic crises. If they are not completely overhauled, they are in danger of disintegration.

Industrial development is threatened from all sides. Taiwan's economic competitiveness and ability to respond have been weakened by crises. The economic growth rate in recent years has often been below two or three percent. Lack of employment opportunities, diminishing real wages, and income inequality remain intractable problems. Popular discontent has surged. The public does not support either of the two major parties. Approval ratings for both are falling in synch.

Elections are just around the corner. The Legislative Yuan remains mired in partisan bickering. Reversing the industry crisis is the shared responsibility of boththe ruling and opposition parties. This concerns the next 5-10 years of economic development. It does not involve ideology, Yet the necessary legislation remains stalled in the legislature. These bills are not necessarily related to highly sensitive cross-Strait legislation. But they are crucial to Taiwan's survival and development. The people have placed their trust in the two major parties, Can they set aside their prejudices and cooperate, in order to reverse Taiwan's industrial crisis? How will those in charge of the two major parties respond? The peoples' eyes are wide open and watching.

社論－產業危機緊迫 政黨停止惡鬥
2014年10月20日 04:09
本報訊

頂新黑心食油事件鬧得沸沸揚揚，全國注意力都集中食安風暴如何善後之問題，但於此同時，新的經濟問題又悄然掩至，受到全球經濟隱憂再現及歐美股市重挫影響，台股近來跌跌不休，再加上食安風暴對消費信心衝擊，已重創才稍稍回溫的成長動能及景氣復甦。台灣產業轉型升級遲緩，競爭力持續衰退，每遇全球經濟及金融波動，受到的衝擊往往比南韓、日本、新加坡、東協國家等貿易競爭對手更深更廣，經過幾波全球景氣循環後，產業競爭力節節衰退，危機日益逼近，朝野若不正視問題的嚴重性，通力合作終結產業競爭力衰退的惡性循環，台灣經濟前景勢必益趨黯淡。

台灣產業危機係深層結構性問題，就台灣主力出口產業資通訊（ICT）業來看，其核心問題在於偏重硬體製造，又高度依賴「台灣接單、海外生產」、「以大陸為工廠」的代工出口模式，面臨近年全球ICT業供應鏈的大規模洗牌，以及最近兩年大陸業者的快速崛起，台灣ICT業危機日深一日。

今年以來，國內ICT業似見到春天，接單及出口皆出現近年罕見榮景，但細究原因，是來自美國蘋果公司iPhone 6面巿及大陸品牌智慧手機和平板電腦崛起，大量增加對台商的代工訂單，一旦明年iPhone 6熱潮減退，大陸品牌業者訂單也可能遭到更多大陸代工業者的取代，台灣ICT業危機勢將再次浮現。

更令人擔憂的是，大陸業者的強力競爭對眾多台灣者業已造成全面威脅。以台積電、聯發科為首的台灣半導體業競爭力傲視同業，為ICT業撐起半邊天，但近來也面臨與日俱增的威脅。今年6月大陸國務院發布《國家集成電路產業發展推進綱要》，並決定砸下人民幣6000億元成立基金，傾國家力量扶植半導體產業。最近媒體報導，美國最大手機晶片業者高通和大陸最大晶圓廠中芯攜手開發20奈米製程；半導體龍頭英特爾以15億美元入股大陸半導體設計業清華紫光，這等發展讓台灣業者強烈感受到大陸半導體大軍壓境的危機。面對大陸業者節節進逼，甚至直搗台灣ICT業兩大龍頭，朝野豈可袖手旁觀？

台灣第二大出口產業石化業亦是危機重重。近年石化業受制於環評、土地取得困難、地方民意反對等國內因素，不僅政府決定停建國光石化，而且石化業新投資及設備更新愈來愈少，導致競爭力持續衰退，再加上高雄氣爆事件發生後，五輕關廠及大社石化工業區解編已成定局，台灣石化業將何去何從？已是大家共同的疑問。

另一方面，國際能源技術突破亦對台灣石化業競爭力構成嚴酷挑戰。美國頁岩油氣大量開採及未來可能出口，大陸煤化工技術突破，對國際能源價格及全球石化業發展皆帶來前所未有的衝擊，並迫使台灣業者紛紛向外尋求出路，台塑集團放棄六輕五期，轉進美國投資；泛中油體系業者和大陸石化同業共同投資大陸古雷輕油裂解廠，是台灣石化業走向萎縮沒落的徵兆。而大陸石化業者產能不斷擴增，大量取代台灣石化產品出口，對眾多石化原料廠商及中下游業者，更是迫切的危機。

除了兩大出口產業外，台灣食品產業近年發生塑化劑、毒澱粉、混充米、瘦肉精、黑心油等一連串食品安全事件，不僅對食品、餐飲等內需產業打擊深重，而且對台灣美食王國聲譽及食品出口皆構成極負面的影響。「自由經濟示範區計畫」推動加值農業中心，擬進口大陸及其他地區農業原料，在台灣加工後，打著「台灣製造」（made in Taiwan）名號回銷大陸或出口其他國家的願景，也變得虛幻、不切實際。如何因應食品產業危機，亦刻不容緩。

台灣服務業同樣面臨轉型挑戰，尤其教育、醫療等更面臨體系性的危機，再不全面整頓，將有崩解之虞。

產業發展危機四伏，讓台灣經濟競爭力及因應危機能力持續減弱，因而近年經濟成長率經常在「保2」、「保3」邊緣掙扎，就業機會不足、實質薪資倒退及所得分配不均等問題更是難解，民怨激升也反映在對沒有作為的朝野兩大黨民意支持度的同步沉淪。

選舉在即，立法院陷政黨惡鬥深淵已久。扭轉產業發展危機，是朝野共同的責任，攸關下一個5至10年經濟盛衰，它不涉及意識形態，和目前躺在立法院、高敏感的兩岸法案並非必然有關，卻是台灣生存發展的關鍵任務。兩大黨受人民託付，能不捐棄成見、攜手合作全力扭轉台灣產業危機嗎？兩黨主事者將如何去做，全民睜大眼睛在看！