Will the DPP Win Back Taiwan from the Local Level, or Lose It?

Will the DPP Win Back Taiwan from the Local Level, or Lose It?
United Daily News Editorial (Taipei, Taiwan, ROC)
A Translation
October 28, 2014

Executive Summary: The DPP must beware. It must not forget the strategic picture while campaigning in local elections. It must not assume that local elections are some sort of stepping stone to central government power. That day could well be the day the DPP "loses Taiwan." After all, the Democratic Progressive Party ruled Taiwan for eight long years, yet it almost "lost Taiwan."

Full Text Below:

The DPP's campaign slogan for the nine in one elections is "Win Back Taiwan from the Local Level." Based on election trends, the DPP appears likely to win these local elections. But then what? Will the DPP win back Taiwan, or lose it? That remains to be seen.

The DPP speaks of "winning back Taiwan." It means that if it wins the nine in one elections, the pan green vote nationwide will increase, and lay the foundation for victory in the 2016 presidential election, and a return to power. But even supposing the DPP wins the 2016 presidential election, is that really the same as "winning back Taiwan?" More importantly, is that really the same as Taiwan winning?

The notion of "winning back Taiwan from the local level" is nothing new. During the 1990s, the DPP's formula was "beseige the central government from the local level." Later, Chen Shui-bian won the 2000 presidential election because the KMT vote was divided, But it did not "win back Taiwan." If anything, it nearly "lost Taiwan." Clearly it can win elections at the local level. It can even win them at the central government level. But seizing central governing power does not necessarily equate with "winning back Taiwan."

When Chen Shui-bian took office, he announced his "five noes" policy. He paid his respects to his ancient Chinese forebears. He even declared his acceptance of the 1992 Consensus in the presence of foreign guests. Alas, the very next day Chairman of the Mainland Affairs Council Tsai Ing-wen vetoed his declaration. The Beijing government then announced it would be "listening to what he said, and watching what he did." Eventually Chen reverted to the controversial path of "rectification of names," the "authoring of a new constitution," and "demanding a referendum on UN membership." Cross-Strait and Taipei-Washington relations endured turbulence and tension. Clearly, winning at the local level was not enough to "win back Taiwan." If one's international and cross-Strait policies are losing propositions, one cannot "win back Taiwan." One may even "lose Taiwan."

Voters are indifferent to the current nine in one elections. Twelve year compulsory education, food safety, and Sunflower Student Movement generational deprivation are the major issues. Trivial quarrels over "one hole" and "a single sweet potato" are minor issues. Almost completely forgotten are strategic issues and sensitive cross-Strait issues. Given the current atmosphere, the DPP might well win the nine in one elections. But if it stumbles on strategic and cross-Strait issues, it is likely to "lose Taiwan."

The current nine in one elections show that Taiwan faces two crises. One. Political leaders have failed to pass the baton to the next generation. Two. Strategic issues are being ignored. First take the failure of political leaders to pass the baton. The political atmosphere is harsh. Political appointees are unqualified. Political candidates have gone from bad to worse. For example, Taipei mayors have traditionally been considered presidential timber. But the Lien vs. Ko dispute has already degenerated into a farce. The public is disappointed with both the blue and green parties. Both parties lack talented successors. How else can one account for the appearance of Sean Lien and Wen-Je Ko? In New Taipei City and Taoyuan City the Kuomintang prevails. In Kaohsiung and Tainan the DPP can probably win lying down. The two parties' political stars are weary. Their successors are non-existent. A few political superstars are shoo-ins. Newcomers are inferior to their predecessors. Men of superior abilty consider elective office beneath them. Taiwan's political scene has lost its ability to attract men of talent. Electoral politics has no room for them. Therefore mediocre people must stand in for them in a variant of Gresham's Law.

Strategic issues are ignored. Men of talent flee. Elections are trivialized. Taiwan today face two major strategic challenges. One. The process of globalization. Two. Sensitive cross-Strait issues. These two are intertwined. As a result of the nine in one local elections, the DPP refuses to budge on the STA and FEPZ regulations. This has delayed the MTA and the establishment of cross-Strait representative offices. In which case, how can one join the TPP and RCEP, and "win back Taiwan?" Is this not a contradiction? The general public has completely forgotten about globalization and sensitive cross-Strait issues. Given such an atmosphere, what are the DPP's boasts that it intends to "win back Taiwan from the local level?" other than pure balderdash?

Taiwan's strategic plight and its future have been totally forgotten during the current election, The aforementioned two issues continue to deteriorate. As previously noted, they are intertwined. We now face sensitive cross-Strait issues. These make it difficult for Taiwan to face the challenges of globalization. Even the Ma administration's "1992 consensus" and "one China, different interpretations" may be unsustainable. Recently, the Mainland accused the Ma administration of "misjudging the situation," of butting heads with the Mainland, of "resisting Mainland China" to the bitter end, of cozying up to the green camp, and even of "merging the blue camp with the green camp." The CCP blasted the Ma government. One can only imagine how it would deal with the DPP in the event it returned to power. After all, the DPP opposes the 1992 consensus. It clings to the Taiwan independence party platform. It persists in undermining cross-Strait agreements. The CCP is twisting the arm of the Ma administration. If the DPP returns to power, the CCP would surely redouble its efforts. How then would the DPP "win back Taiwan from the local level?"

The DPP must beware. It must not forget the strategic picture while campaigning in local elections. It must not assume that local elections are some sort of stepping stone to central government power. That day could well be the day the DPP "loses Taiwan." After all, the Democratic Progressive Party ruled Taiwan for eight long years, yet it almost "lost Taiwan."

民進黨將從地方贏回或輸掉台灣？
【聯合報╱社論】
2014.10.28 02:08 am

民進黨九合一選舉的口號是：「從地方贏回台灣。」就選情走勢看，民進黨有可能贏得這次「地方」選舉，但接下來民進黨究竟將「贏回」台灣，或「輸掉」台灣，卻尚待下回分解。

民進黨所謂「贏回台灣」，是指若贏得此次九合一選舉，泛綠陣營在全國總得票數可能上升，即可為二○一六總統大選奠定勝選的條件，重返執政。不過，民進黨就算「贏回」二○一六總統大選，就等同於「贏回台灣」嗎？或就等同於「台灣贏了」嗎？

「從地方贏回台灣」，其實不是一個新說法。廿世紀九○年代，民進黨即有「地方包圍中央」的提法。後來，陳水扁因國民黨分裂而贏得了兩千年總統大選，但事後發展卻未「贏回台灣」，而是幾乎「輸掉」了台灣。可見，即使未贏得「地方」，也可能贏得中央執政權；但贏得中央執政權，卻未必能「贏回台灣」。

陳水扁上任就宣示「四不一沒有」，遙祭黃陵，甚至在外賓面前宣示接受「九二共識」，但次日卻被時任陸委會主委的蔡英文所否決。此後，扁政府即面臨北京「聽其言／觀其行」的對待，最後陳水扁又折返了「正名制憲」、「入聯公投」的爭議路線，而使兩岸關係及台美關係均陷於嚴重紛擾與緊張。可見，若要「贏回台灣」，只是贏得「地方」是不夠的；若在國際及兩岸路線上失敗，那就無可能「贏回台灣」，而可能「輸掉台灣」。

此次九合一選舉的選情極冷，大氣候陷於十二年國教、食安問題、太陽花世代剝奪等議題中，小氣候則陷於「一個洞」及「一顆番薯」等瑣碎口角中，而幾乎完全不見全球化運籌及兩岸深水區等全局議題。這樣的氛圍，或許有利民進黨贏得九合一選舉；但若贏了九合一，竟在全局因應失敗，極可能「輸掉台灣」。

此次九合一選舉顯現的台灣危機有二：一、政治領袖人才的斷層；二、全局議題的消失。先言領袖人才的斷層：政壇的惡劣風氣，非但使政務官覓才不易，在選舉體制中的人物也一蟹不如一蟹。例如，台北市長原是總統候選人的先修班，但台北市的連柯之爭卻已形同鬧劇。若非人民對藍綠兩黨皆感失望，而兩黨的後繼人才枯竭，則豈會出現連勝文與柯文哲？而新北市及桃園市國民黨占上風，高雄市及台南市民進黨躺著選，也顯示兩黨的人才競爭已現疲態，後繼乏人。就全局看，此次選舉除了幾位優勢一面倒的明星級連任者外，新人的水準幾皆不如前輩，看不出具未來領袖氣質的人物。這顯示台灣的政壇已經失去領袖人才的造血機能，優秀菁英不屑選舉，選舉氛圍亦不容優秀菁英存活，遂成觸目皆見廖化作先鋒，已是劣幣逐良幣之局。

至於全局議題的消失：人才凋零，亦使選舉議題瑣碎化。當今台灣面對兩大全局難題：一是全球化進程，二是兩岸深水區；而這兩個難題如麻花般地相互纏繞。民進黨因九合一地方選舉而卡住了服貿協議及自由經濟示範區條例，並已影響貨貿協議及兩岸互設辦事處等之推進；如此，卻謂將加入ＴＰＰ及ＲＣＥＰ，且要「贏回台灣」，豈非自相矛盾？此時，全民幾已陷入遺忘「全球化／兩岸深水區」兩大全局議題之境地，在此種氛圍下，民進黨卻揚言「從地方贏回台灣」，豈非形同夢囈？

在這場選舉中，台灣的全局及未來已遭遺忘，而前述的兩大議題卻仍繼續在惡化之中。如前舉麻花之喻，兩岸深水區的徵候已現，因此亦難支撐台灣面對全球化的挑戰；即使馬政府的「九二共識／一中各表」，也出現了難以為繼的態勢。最近，大陸方面出現「馬政府誤判形勢，以硬碰硬、『抗中』到底、向綠靠攏，乃至藍綠合流」之類的評論。倘若中共如此評價馬政府，則將如何對待「反九二共識／維持台獨黨綱／破壞兩岸協議」的民進黨若重返執政？此時中共對馬政府加碼施壓，未來勢將加倍用以挾持可能重返執政的民進黨，則民進黨將如何「從地方贏回台灣」？

民進黨必須戒慎恐懼，勿在此次「遺忘全局的地方選舉」以為可奠基重返中央執政之時，竟然成為民進黨「輸掉台灣」之日。畢竟，民進黨曾在中央執政八年，卻險些「輸掉台灣」。