Cheer up! A Lame Duck President Need Not Sit and Brood

Cheer up! A Lame Duck President Need Not Sit and Brood
United Daily News editorial (Taipei, Taiwan, ROC)
A Translation 
January 13, 2015

Executive Summary: To overcome its lame duck status, the Ma government must act. The first thing it must do is dare to change. It must cast aside its “safe” conservative mentality. The second thing it must do is dare to challenge itself. It must not be afraid to be different today from what it was yesterday. The third thing it must do it open itself up to the outside world and listen. It must not be afraid to listen to different voices. It must have the courage to confront its own weaknesses. Only then can it expect a breakthrough. Being a lame duck means that it needs even more courage than before. It must not sit back and brood.

Full Text Below:

The Democratic Party in the US suffered a major defeat during last year's midterm election. As a result, for the last two years of Obama's term, he is destined to be a lame duck. But Obama refuses to admit defeat. He is attempting to turn the tide, both domestically and diplomatically. He granted amnesty to illegal immigrants. He thawed relations with Cuba, which have been interrupted for half a century. He reached a carbon reduction agreement with the Chinese mainland. Obama, a basketball fan, told reporters on New Years Eve that usually the game only really begins in the fourth quarter. Obama is taking aggressive action to neutralize his status as a lame duck.

If Obama can neutralize his status as a lame duck, so can President Ma Ying-jeou. The key is whether the Ma administration can think anew and can stop butting its head against the wall. It must reinvent the wheel in order to win over hearts and minds. If it clings to old ways of thinking and decision-making, if it continues to repeat the same mistakes, over and over again, it will merely mire itself deeper in the mud, and meet its predictable fate.

Actually, compared to Obama, Ma Ying-jeou has a political advantage. The KMT still holds an absolute majority in the Legislative Yuan. It is a ruling party that has never really exploited this advantage. By contrast, the United States Senate and House both fell to the Republicans. Obama's hands are tied. Ma Ying-jeou's lame duck status is not nearly so bad. The Ma government must show the public that he means business. Together with his comrades, he must promote policies whose benefits can be felt by the public. The Ma government must pick itself off the floor. It must not wallow in self-pity. It must not complain about having lost the hearts and minds of the public. Not only is that futile, it will only lead to greater humiliation.

Ma Ying-jeou has a massive blind spot. He lacks political imagination and political skills. He may even consider politics "evil" by nature, hence feel disdain. As a result, he does not know how to pick his battles. He does not know how to distinguish between enemies and allies. He does not even know how to make friends. He does not know how to win the support of the masses. To his mind, ruling means having the Executive Yuan issue instructions and decisions, having them endorsed by the Legislative Yuan, then carried out by various levels of government. He never considers how every decision or reform affects people, consortia, or special interest groups. He never considers the need for trade-offs. He never considers how the policies he promotes may encounter resistance and affect ruling party legislators. He never considers the need to finalize strategies through communication and coordination, or the need to make compromises.

Ma Ying-jeou probably does not realize that if the opposition DPP engages in outrageous political obstructionism, he can still win the support of enough people, enabling him to do what he must, or even turn the tide. Take Obama, for example. He was helpless against the Republican budget proposal. But he granted amnesty to illegal immigrants, and won the support of minorities. He lifted the embargo against Cuba, and won the support of the international community. He promoted carbon reduction, and improved environmentalist bona fides of the United States. Cannot President Ma take an inventory of his policy proposals, and find something worth doing?

Since its defeat, the Ma government's policy dilemma has not improved. The main reason is that his cabinet has retained Jiang's legacy, leaving it entirely intact. Its decision-making style also remains unchanged. The most obvious example is the capital gains tax "large investor provisions." Implementation has been pushed back three years by ruling and opposition party legislators. The Ministry of Transportation's proposed high-speed rail financial improvement plan has been blocked by ruling and opposition legislators, leading to Yeh Kuang-shih's resignation. Last year's STA and and "cross-strait agreement oversight regulations" remain in limbo. Unless these obstacles can be overcome, it is difficult to imagine how President Ma and Taiwan are going to get through the remaining ten months of his term.

Former Minister of the Interior Lee Hong-uuan recently criticized the Ma government decisions as "missing a brain." His comment may have been harsh, but everyone knows it's true.
One. Inner circle decision-making, and a lack of communication. Two. Top down decision-making, and an excessive reliance on elites. Three. Closed-minded thinking, and an inability to draw from public knowledge. An inability to recruit talent, leading to decisions made without thinking. A policy-making process that remains opaque, therefore unable to elicit official or public support. These include: An avian influenza epidemic prevention unit that suppresses information. Twenty billion in Taipower profits due to a decline in the price of petroleum, yet no response until the public erupted in outrage. The Ma government must change its "missing a brain" governance model. It must feel the public pulse, and demonstrate decisiveness and courage. Do so, and the people will respond.

Wen-Je Ko has done much since taking office. Much of what he did was pure show. But he understands that the people want change. He made other mayors' silent achievements part of his own eye-catching resume. His populist style may not withstand the test of time. But making policy change visible inspires people. It makes them feel the city is making progress.

To overcome its lame duck status, the Ma government must act. The first thing it must do is dare to change. It must cast aside its “safe” conservative mentality. The second thing it must do is dare to challenge itself. It must not be afraid to be different today from what it was yesterday. The third thing it must do it open itself up to the outside world and listen. It must not be afraid to listen to different voices. It must have the courage to confront its own weaknesses. Only then can it expect a breakthrough. Being a lame duck means that it needs even more courage than before. It must not sit back and brood.

振作點！跛鴨總統不必坐困愁城
2015-01-13 01:57:38 聯合報 社論

美國民主黨去年期中選舉大敗，讓歐巴馬的最後兩年注定成為「跛鴨總統」。然而歐巴馬並不服輸，企圖在內政、外交上力挽狂瀾：他大赦非法移民，解凍與古巴中斷半世紀的關係，並與中國大陸達成減碳協定。喜好籃球的歐巴馬在年終記者會上說：「進入第四節，好戲通常在後頭。」歐巴馬以積極施為，有效掃除了跛鴨形象。

如果歐巴馬能擺脫跛鴨，馬英九總統當然也可以。關鍵只在，馬團隊能不能換個腦袋，拋開讓施政不斷「撞牆」的思維，重起爐灶，爭取民心。否則，如果仍一直使用舊有的思考及決策模式，不斷重蹈覆轍，跛鴨在泥坑裡越陷越深，也是必然的命運。

比起歐巴馬，馬英九其實擁有更多的政治優勢。原因是，國民黨在立院仍掌握絕對多數席次，執政黨尚未到任人宰割的地步；這比起美國參、眾兩院皆淪入共和黨之手、歐巴馬飽受牽制之苦而言，馬英九的跛鴨處境並不算太糟。馬政府要做的，是提出讓人民一新耳目的作為，並聯合自己的同志和戰友共同推動，讓民眾「有感」；如果老是在自己跌倒的地方徘徊惆悵，對著失散的民心怨天尤人，非但無濟於事，還會招致更多譏嘲。

馬英九的一大盲點，是缺乏政治想像與政治手腕，他甚至可能把政治視為帶有「邪惡」本質的事，而不屑為之。也因此，他不懂得劃分戰線的先後，不懂得區分敵人及盟友，不懂得結交朋友，甚至不知道如何爭取廣大群眾的支持。在他的思維裡，所謂執政，似乎就是由行政院發出各種指令與決策，由國會立法背書，由各下屬部門分層推動。他從未想到，每項決策或改革均可能牽動人民、財團或利益團體的損益，必須要有良好的權衡；政策推動中不僅會遭遇反對黨的阻力，也會招致執政黨立委的杯葛，必須和他們溝通協調敲定策略，並作出必要妥協。

當然，馬英九可能也不知道，就算在政治上遭到對手的蠻橫杯葛和暗算，若能爭取到足夠民眾的支持，他仍然有可為的空間，甚至有扳回的勝算。以歐巴馬為例，在預算案遭共和黨強烈箝制自是無奈，但他大赦非法移民，爭取了少數族裔的支持；對古巴解除禁運，爭取到國際社會的支持；推動減碳協定，改善了美國的環保形象。馬總統盤點一下他的施政倉儲，會找不到可以做的事嗎？

從敗選至今，馬政府的施政困境毫無改善；主要原因，除了內閣班底的「江規毛續」原封不動外，決策作風也一成不變。最明顯的例子，是證所稅的「大戶條款」在朝野立委聯手合作下決議「暫緩三年」實施；而交通部提出的高鐵財務改善計畫，也遭朝野立委共同封殺而導致葉匡時辭職；至於去年遭杯葛至今的《服貿協議》和《兩岸協議監督條例》，更毫無解凍跡象。這種低迷氣氛若不設法打破，我們很難想像馬總統剩餘的十六個月任期，台灣將如何度過？

前內政部長李鴻源最近批評，馬政府決策常常像「少一個腦袋」。這個評語雖然苛刻，卻也道出了大家看到的事實：第一，是小圈圈決策，缺乏溝通思維；第二，自上而下，過度菁英取向；第三，封閉性思考，不懂得向民間借力借腦。用人缺少腦袋，就會導致決策沒有腦袋，施政格局打不開，即無法贏得民代和社會的認同。包括禽流感侵襲多時防疫單位卻隱匿疫情，台電因石油跌價而獲利兩百億，竟也要等到民怨沸騰才「從善如流」。馬政府如果能一改這種「少一根筋」的施政模式，貼緊民意脈動，展現決斷與魄力，我們不相信它喚不回民心。

看柯文哲上任後的諸多作為，有些雖然只是取巧炫耀，但他抓住了「民心思變」的要害，把其他市長無聲無息的努力，變成自己光燦奪目的魄力。雖說民粹作風未必禁得起長期檢驗，但把施政變成「看得見的改變」，至少鼓舞了不少市民，覺得市政在前進。

若要克服跛鴨困境，馬政府該做的，首先是要勇於「求變」，拋開只求「安定」的保守心態；其次是要敢於「向自己挑戰」，不要畏懼自己與昨天不同；第三是要以開放的心態吸納外界意見，不要怕聽不同的聲音。敢面對自己的弱點，才有突破的可能；跛鴨更要勇敢走出來，不要坐困愁城。