DPP: Beware Disintegration of Cross-Strait Peace Framework

DPP: Beware Disintegration of Cross-Strait Peace Framework
United Daily News Editorial (Taipei, Taiwan, ROC)
A Translation
January 19, 2015

Executive Summary: If the DPP returns to power, but refuses to change its cross-Strait policy, the cross-Strait peace framework will disintegrate. That in turn will cause the ruling Democratic Progressive Party regime to disintegrate. The DPP must prevent this prospect from materializing. That is the final mile the DPP must negotiate on the road to the ROC Presidency.

Full Text Below:

Tung Chen-yuan, MAC Vice Chairman during the Chen Shui-bian era, has warned the DPP that in the event it returns to power, it must change its cross-Strait policy. If it refuses to do so, the framework for cross-Strait peace established by General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party Hu Jintao a decade ago may well disintegrate.

Over the past year, Tung Chen-yuan  has repeatedly called on the DPP to tackle cross-Strait policy reform. He has urged the DPP to author a "Resolution on the Republic of China”. He has called for a petition to "freeze the Taiwan independence party platform". In the past, he was tactful. His language was reserved. But this time his language was blunt. He said that the DPP must confront the issue, head on. He warned that “the cross-Strait peace framework is in danger of disintegration".

When Tung Chen-yuan  advocates freezing the Taiwan independence party platform, he is being constructive. He is urging the DPP to do the right thing. Even Ker Chien-ming has advocated freezing the Taiwan independence party platform. Tung's recommendation has been ignored. This time however, he warned that if the DPP refuses to change its cross-Strait policy, the repercussions will be catastrophic. He said the DPP must face the possibility of cross-Strait peace framework disintegration head on.

Tsai Ing-wen, Chairman of the Mainland Affairs Council during the Chen Shui-bian era, insists that if the DPP does well during the election, "Even [Mainland] China will accommodate the Democratic Progressive Party". What she meant was that the DPP need not change, because Beijing will change to accommodate the DPP. Tung Chen-yuan  however says the DPP must change. Otherwise Beijing will also change. But it will not change to accommodate the Democratic Progressive Party. Rather it will change in a manner that results in the disintegration of the cross-Strait peace framework.

Tsai Ing-wen and Tung Chen-yuan offer very different scenarios for cross-Strait relations in the event DPP returns to power. Tsai assumes that Beijing will swallow its pride and accommodate the DPP.  Tung believes that DPP failure to change its cross-Strait policy will lead to the disintegration of the cross-Strait peace framework. In our view, Tsai Ing-wen should heed Tung Chen-yuan's warnings. She must not bury her head in the sand. That will only bring incalculable disaster upon Taiwan.

Tsai Ing-wen must offer reasons why she thinks “[Mainland] China will accommodate the Democratic Progressive Party." If the DPP repudiates the 1992 consensus and affirms the Taiwan independence party platform, will Beijing in fact accommodate the DPP? What if Beijing refuses to do as Tsai predicts, “accommodate the DPP”? Won't this lead to the disintegration of the cross-Strait peace framework that Tung Chen-yuan  has warned about?

There are too many signs that Beijing will not accommodate the Democratic Progressive Party in the event it returns to power but refuses to change. Consider one example. Observers on both sides of the Strait have been closely following the first annual ministerial level "China - Latin America and Caribbean Community” or CARICOM, which recently convened in Beijing. Twelve ROC diplomatic allies in the region sent ministers to the summit. Panama proposed that the summit be upgraded to a heads of state level event. Mainland scholars have warned the DPP that if it returns to power but refuses to change its cross-Strait policy, the cross-Strait diplomatic truce will disintegrate. If so, the cross-Strait diplomatic war in Central and South America may well resume. If that happens, the dominoes will fall in swift succession. The psychological and practical impact on Taiwan society would be massive, and could cause the collapse of the new DPP regime. If ECFA is impacted, if cross-Strait flights are reduced in numbers, if Taiwan pineapple cakes become unmarketable, the ruling Democratic Progressive Party government will not be able to withstand the impact.

Even if the DPP wins in 2016 and returns to power, Beijing will never do as Tsai Ing-wen suggests, and "accommodate the DPP". Most likely it will do what Tung Chen-yuan  warned against. If the DPP does not change, the cross-Strait peace framework will disintegrate. The result will be the disintegration of the ruling DPP regime. As such, the DPP should probably adopt a pragmatic cross-Strait policy before it returns to power. It should seize the initiative. It should not give anyone leverage over it. It should not give Beijing any excuse to nullify the cross-Strait peace framework.

The nine in one elections showed that Taiwan has political alternatives besides blue and green. The DPP should turn the 2016 general election into an event that transcends blue or green. It should turn party reform into a cross-Strait policy platform. More importantly, once it has returned to power, it must not precipitate the disintegration of the cross-Strait peace framework. Current indications are that the Chen Shui-bian faction's “one nation on on each side” ideology will prevail. The Sunflower Student Movement threat will rear its ugly head. Wen-Je Ko will continue to repudiate the 1992 consensus. Yao Hsi and other Taiwan independence elements will demand a bigger piece of the political pie. These constraints are all factors standing in the way of Democratic Progressive Party reform. That said, the DPP still has Ker Chien-ming, who advocates freezing the Taiwan independence party platform. It still has Frank Hsieh, who advocates a constitutional consensus. It still has Julian Kuo, who frets about the big picture and party reform. The community still has Tung Chen-yuan and his  generation of reform advocates. The DPP can use them as leverage to prevent Taiwan independence fringe elements within the Democratic Progressive Party from wagging the dog. It must take advantage of public expectations to prevent Taiwan independence elements within the DPP from obstructing party reform.

If the DPP returns to power, but refuses to change its cross-Strait policy, the cross-Strait peace framework will disintegrate. That in turn will cause the ruling Democratic Progressive Party regime to disintegrate. The DPP must prevent this prospect from materializing. That is the final mile the DPP must negotiate on the road to the ROC Presidency.

民進黨必須正視兩岸和平框架崩解的警告
2015-01-19 聯合報

民進黨扁政府時代的陸委會副主委童振源指出，民進黨一旦執政卻不調整兩岸政策，由中共前總書記胡錦濤執政十年建立的兩岸和平框架，將面臨崩解危機。

一年多來，童振源持續呼籲民進黨正視兩岸政策轉型的課題。他曾主張民進黨另議《中華民國決議文》，且曾連署「凍結台獨黨綱」的提案。唯均言辭委婉，語多保留。但此次他說得直白，直接發出民進黨必須面對「兩岸和平框架崩解」的警告。

童振源主張凍結台獨黨綱，這是從正面主張民進黨應當做的事；其實，柯建銘也曾主張凍結台獨黨綱。但童的這類正面主張未獲回應，他此次卻是從民進黨若不調整兩岸政策的負面效應提出警告。他說，民進黨必須正視兩岸和平框架將面臨崩解危機。

曾任扁政府陸委會主委的蔡英文說，如果民進黨選舉選得好，「連中國都會朝民進黨的方向來調整」；此意是指，民進黨不必調整，北京會「朝民進黨的方向」來調整。但童振源卻指出，民進黨必須調整，否則北京也會「調整」，卻不是「朝民進黨的方向」來調整，而是將使「兩岸和平框架崩解」。

對於民進黨一旦重返執政後的兩岸關係，蔡英文與童振源的不同說法，代表了兩種不同想像。蔡認為，北京會吞下去，然後「朝民進黨的方向調整」；童則認為，民進黨若不調整兩岸政策，其效應將是「兩岸和平框架崩解」。我們認為，蔡英文應正視童振源的警告，不要蓋頭鰻不知生死門，為台灣帶來莫測的災禍。

蔡英文必須拿出其所謂「中國會朝民進黨的方向調整」的根據所在。若民進黨的「方向」是「否定九二共識／維持台獨黨綱」，難道屆時北京也會「朝民進黨的方向調整」？萬一北京不肯如蔡英文說「朝民進黨的方向調整」，則有無可能就導致如童振源所說的「兩岸和平框架崩解」？

已有太多的跡象顯示北京可能如何面對民進黨的一旦再執政與不調整，僅舉一例。兩岸問題觀察者，對最近在北京舉行的「中國—拉丁美洲與加勒比海共同體（拉共體）」首屆部長級會議均予高度關注。這次會議，中華民國在此區域的十二個邦交國均派部長級官員參加，其中巴拿馬並主張將此會升高為元首級高峰會。已有大陸學者警告，若民進黨再執政而不調整兩岸政策，兩岸的「外交休兵」將失憑據；則屆時若在中南美洲再現兩岸「烽火外交」的境況，當非不可想像。到時候萬一發生急遽的骨牌效應，這對台灣社會的心理衝擊與實質影響，皆可能對若重返執政的民進黨政府發生「政權崩解」的嚴重效應。至於因此若使ＥＣＦＡ體系發生動搖，兩岸航班減量、台灣鳳梨酥滯銷，在在皆將是再執政的民進黨政府無可承受之重。

民進黨即使贏得二○一六大選再度執政，北京亦絕無可能如蔡英文所說「朝民進黨的方向調整」，而極可能如童振源所警告的「民進黨不調整，將面臨兩岸和平框架的崩解」，其結果甚至將導致民進黨再執政之政府的「政權崩解」。因此，民進黨應當在可能重返執政之前，務實地完成兩岸政策轉型的工程，操持主動地位，不能授人以柄，亦即不要留給北京任何導致「兩岸和平框架崩解」的藉口。

九合一選舉顯示，台灣的政治競合其實存有超越藍綠的可能性。民進黨應將二○一六大選營造成一場超越藍綠的工程，將之做為兩岸政策轉型的平台；更必須避免一旦再執政，卻造成「兩岸和平框架崩解」的惡果。跡象顯示，陳水扁一邊一國勢力可能看漲、太陽花公民組合的威脅可能形成、柯文哲持續否定九二共識，及妖西等新獨派要求分食政治大餅的姿態可能升高，這些皆是民進黨轉型的掣肘因素。但民進黨內仍有如柯建銘凍獨、謝長廷憲法共識及郭正亮關注大局等轉型派，而社會上也有童振源這輩傾向民進黨的轉型鼓吹者，此皆民進黨可以運用的槓桿。民進黨勿使少數的激進獨派形成「尾巴搖狗」的局面，而應善用黨內及社會上期待民進黨轉型的民意去擺脫獨派扯後腿。

民進黨若再執政卻不在兩岸政策轉型，勢將導致「兩岸和平框架崩解」，亦將同時造成「民進黨再執政的政權崩解」。如何勿使這個警告不幸而言中，才是民進黨的「最後一哩路」。