Stay on Message: Hung Hsiu-chu's Only Chance of Winning

Stay on Message: Hung Hsiu-chu's Only Chance of Winning
China Times Editorial (Taipei, Taiwan, ROC)
A Translation
September 3, 2015

Executive Summary: Hung Hsiu-chu is the presidential candidate making the most effort to get elected. She has pulled out all the stops. Her campaign has made some progress, but not enough. She currently faces three major obstacles. One. The KMT's image for governance remains poor. Two. Kuomintang factional leaders refuse to unite. Three. The KMT's rigid order is cramping Hung Hsiu-chu's style.

Full Text Below:

Hung Hsiu-chu is the presidential candidate making the most effort to get elected. She has pulled out all the stops. Her campaign has made some progress, but not enough. She currently faces three major obstacles. One. The KMT's image for governance remains poor. Two. Kuomintang factional leaders refuse to unite. Three. The KMT's rigid order is cramping Hung Hsiu-chu's style.

Hung must overcome these three obstacles. People must see these three obstacles overcome. Only then will victory be possible. One. People must experience these changes, first hand. They need to see more than ruling party changes. They want "politics as usual" gone permanently, in toto. They yearn for a breath of fresh air. Two. They want the Kuomintang to undergo total transformation. That is the very reason they supported Hung to begin with. They want to change the Kuomintang. They want Taiwan to have a Kuomintang that works. Three. They are no longer willing to sit like frogs boiled alive, watching as the nation drifts aimlessly without a compass. They want a clear direction for the nation.

Overcoming these three obstacles requires three changes. One. Hung's advisors must "Let Hung be Hung". She must remain on message. Two. The Kuomintang must engage in thorough soul-searching, factional leaders in particular. They must cease looking out only for number one. They must cease going through the motions merely to divvy up the spoils, indifferent to whether the party wins or loses. They must cease spreading rumors about Hung being replaced, thereby undermining the KMT's final pledge. Three. Blue camp supporters must make themselves heard. They must pressure the KMT to change, thereby changing society's negative impression of the party.

Hung is persistent, straightforward, sincere, and unambiguous. She does not pontificate. She does not grandstand. This distinguishes her from other politicians on Taiwan. She is dramatically different from Tsai Ing-wen, who is deliberately unclear, who answers the easy questions but ducks the hard ones, who lies about her positions on key issues such as national identity. Hung is the polar opposite of James Soong, a master of political trickery and political theater who flip-flops constantly, whose campaign finances are questionable, and whose motives for running are entirely different.

Hung has another unique trait. Her path for the nation's future is crystal clear. To her the core issue is a lack of clarity in cross-Strait relations and the nation's direction. As a result, she seeks cross-Strait peace. Specifically she proposes a meaningful and principled "cross-strait peace agreement". Tsai Ing-wen meanwhile, has been deceiving the public by avoiding this problem in hopes of winning the election. Like her mentor Lee Teng-hui, she has learned to conceal her true sentiments, and is utterly devoid of honesty.

Another candidate, James Soong, is a Machiavellian schemer. On the one hand, he sides with the opponents of curriculum reform, and panders to the mob. On the other hand, he exploits his relationship with Beijing. He boasts about being invited to the September 3 victory parade, milking it to give the Green Camp a shot in the arm. On cross-Strait relations he offers nothing but hollow rhetoric. He dances to the DPP's tune, and without bothering to check the facts, denounces Hung's cross-Strait policy as "hasty reunification".

Politics on Taiwan is plagued by a moral vacuum and an indifference to the truth. That said, most people are decent human beings. As long as Hung stays on message, as long as Hung's advisors "Let Hung be Hung", as long as Hung boldly proclaims her intentions for the nation's future, we believe real gold does not fear fire, and justice will prevail. As long as the people are willing to listen to their inner voices, support for Hung will grow.

We hope that KMT leaders will refrain from looking out only for number one. We hope they will refrain from adopting a two-faced strategy of supporting the party's candidate on the surface while allowing local leaders to collude with James Soong beneath the table. With the help of KMT think tanks, Hung has presented a number of new policies, including an improved capital gains tax. KMT Chairman Eric Chu and Legislative Yuan Speaker Wang JIn-pyng have been tracking its progress. The KMT enjoys a legislative majority. It can immediately implement Hung's policy. This would show that the KMT supports Hung. If they fail at this, Chairman Chu and Speaker Wang will be in a serious dereliction of duty, and so-called party solidarity will be nothing more than hollow rhetoric. Only if Chu and Wang succeed at this, will people believe in the KMT's ability to govern, and that they should vote for KMT legislators.

As we all know, Hung's cross-Strait policy differs from President Ma Ying-jeou's in methodology. Her nuclear energy policy differs from Chairman Chu's in scheduling. Shouldn't the KMT take advantage of this opportunity to debate these issues? Only debate will enable outsiders to see that the KMT is a political party capable of self-reflection. Only debate will enable the KMT to create a blue camp consensus.

Hung Hsiu-chu's candidacy is an historical accident. In fact, people hope that a force for good will sweep Hung into office. Whether victory is possible next year depends on whether conditions are right. One can only do what one can. One cannot hope for the moon. No matter what the outcome, Hung can provide society with an exemplar of future leaders. She can give the KMT a new look, new order, and new direction, and force the KMT to change.

The public on Taiwan seeks change. But it knows any change brought about by the DPP could lead to greater unrest. They demand change but fear it as well. Such a political climate offers Hung an unprecedented opportunity. Hung must remain resolute. The KMT has nominated her. But the goal must be more than just a KMT victory. The great silent majority must believe the nation is changing for the better. Only that will win votes. Only that is the correct path.

堅持初衷 洪秀柱唯一贏的策略

2015年09月03日 中國時報

洪秀柱是目前總統候選人中最認真選舉的，幾乎使盡渾身解數，選情略有進展，但仍無大幅起色。目前有三座大山擋在面前，一是國民黨的施政社會形象太差，二是國民黨內山頭不願團結，三是洪個人的特色風格受制於國民黨結構而難以展現。

洪要跨越這三座大山，讓民眾感受到三大改變，才有可能勝選。一是人民感受到的改變，不再只是政黨的輪替而已，而是舊有的政治文化風格被徹底地揚棄，台灣的政治空氣變得清新；二是國民黨徹底的翻轉，也就是人們支持洪，但也同時可以改變國民黨，讓台灣有個健康的國民黨；三是國家的方向不再是模模糊糊的坐困愁城，也不再是溫水煮青蛙式的坐以待斃，而是一條明確的國家發展方向確定了。

要創造這三大改變，必須仰賴三股力量。一是洪必須清楚積極地展現其個人人格特質及堅持參選的初衷；二是國民黨全黨，特別是各山頭必須有深刻的反省，不可以再擁兵自重、虛應故事，以賺取敗選或分裂後的政治利益；不要再造謠放話換柱，傷害國民黨的最後誠信；三是泛藍民眾須大力發聲，給國民黨壓力，要求國民黨翻轉社會的既有印象。

洪的個人特色是堅毅、質樸、真誠，不模糊，不打高空，也不譁眾取寵，這是她與台灣其他政治人物不同的地方。與蔡英文的不清不楚、避重就輕，在如國家認同等關鍵立場上的蓄意不誠實形成強烈對比；與宋楚瑜的擅於權謀、長袖善舞、唱做俱佳、立場搖擺、錢財不清，參選動機不明也有著南轅北轍的本質不同。

洪的另一個特色是國家道路大方向明確，直指台灣的核心問題在於兩岸關係定位及路徑不清楚，因而提出要以創造兩岸和平為未來的重大方向，具體提出要簽署「兩岸和平協定」及其應有的內涵及原則。反觀蔡英文到目前為止，還企圖以模糊蒙混的方式來迴避這個大問題，為了選舉，學習李登輝一樣，隱藏自己內心的真正認同，毫無誠實可言。

另一位參選人宋楚瑜，則是權謀算計地一方面支持高中生反課綱微調，收媚俗之得，一方面在販賣他與北京的關係，甚而以可出席九三閱兵為傲，擺出可為綠營通氣打點之用。在兩岸關係上只有空話，卻跟著民進黨，不問事理地批評洪的兩岸主張是「急統」。

台灣的政治的確有些價值不彰、是非不明的現象，但是絕大多數的民眾是善良的，只要洪堅持自己原有的人格本質，大聲地說出她堅持的道路，我們相信，真金不怕火煉，公道自在人心，只要人民聽進去了，感受到了，洪的支持力量就會快速增加。

我們也希望國民黨的高層，不要再擁兵自重，也不要玩兩手策略，表面上支持黨的參選人，但是卻不避諱地容許其樁腳與宋暗通款曲。在國民黨智庫的協助下，洪已經提出了多項新政策，包括受好評的證所稅改良方案。國民黨從朱主席，到在立法院掌握議程進度的王院長，能否透過國民黨的現有優勢，讓洪的選舉政見立刻落實，以事實驗證國民黨舉全黨之力支持洪。如果做不到這一點，朱主席與王院長其實已是嚴重失職，所謂全黨團結挺柱只是虛話一句。如果能夠做到這一點，才能使人民相信，國民黨的確還有能力治國，將選票投給國民黨的立委才有意義。

眾所周知，洪對於兩岸關係的看法與馬英九總統有方法論上的不同，對核能政策與朱立倫主席有順序上的不同，國民黨難道不應該利用這個機會，進行一場大辯論嗎？只有透過辯論，才會讓外界感受到國民黨是個敢於自我反省的政黨，國民黨的路線才能凝聚泛藍的共識。

洪秀柱出線是歷史的偶然，其實也有人民期待正面力量的必然，把洪推向大選的浪頭，明年能否勝選，取決於因緣是否具足，只能努力不能強求，但洪可以給社會留下一個未來領導者應有的嶄新面貌，帶給國民黨一個新的文化與方向，促使國民黨必須翻轉改變。

台灣社會既希望改變，又擔心透過民進黨改變，是否會帶來更大的不安。這種既想改變，又不安的氛圍，正是洪的契機。洪要堅信，雖然是國民黨提名，但目標不應只是讓國民黨勝選，而是讓廣大的沉默大眾感受到國家可以往好的地方改變，才會有選票，也才是正道。