Time that Tsai Ing-wen Debated Hung Hsiu-chu

Time that Tsai Ing-wen Debated Hung Hsiu-chu
China Times Editorial (Taipei, Taiwan, ROC)
A Translation
September 23, 2015

Executive Summary: The year 2016 will be a turning point for Taiwan. This election is of critical importance. Candidates must tell voters what they think the current problems are, and how they intend to remedy them. We cannot allow voters to be deceived into supporting candidates, only to become disillusioned upon learning otherwise. The harm inflicted upon the nation, the winning candidates, and the voters is unacceptable. We solemnly urge Tsai Ing-wen and Hung Hsiu-chu to begin debating the issues.

Full Text Below:

DPP presidential candidate Tsai Ing-wen's election prospects are bright. Victory appears to be at hand. The DPP has a good chance of gaining a majority in the legislature as well. KMT presidential candidate Hung Hsiu-chu's momentum is weak. She lacks both manpower and funds. Nevertheless she exhibits willpower and determination. Her own party is apathetic. Rivals from within her own party are pressuring her. Yet she stands alone, resolute in her opposition to populist demagoguery and Taiwan independence fanaticism. The election campaign has now reached the point where the candidates must face each other. The two main candidates have begun to share their political views. Voters must set aside their prejudices and look at what the candidates actually advocate.

The DPP recently held a party wide "pledge session". Tsai Ing-wen gave a speech, calling for responsibility, tolerance, reconciliation, unity, commitment, and vision. Taiwan does indeed require unity before it can achieve any sort of vision. All of this requires a responsible government. Tsai's pledges will probably win public support. But how does she intend to fulfill them? How will she bring them to fruition? She refuses to say. She scrupulously avoids mention of specific policies or programs. Energy policy is highly controversial. Tsai Ing-wen pledged that there would be no power shortages following the DPP's return to power. Last week Tsai Ing-wen announced her green energy policy. Green power, including wind power and solar power, would be increased to over 20%. Given current technology, green power is more costly than thermal power and nuclear power. Therefore others have predicted price increases. Yet Tsai immediately fired back, saying that she "did not expect prices to rise within 10 years."

Tsai Ing-wen has made three pledges. But those in the know realize that Taiwan's more serious crisis involves disunity, myopia, and paralysis. The existence of problems is common knowledge. Pointing them out is easy. Solving them is hard. How can Taiwan be united? Tsai Ing-wen says "We are at a crossroads. Division or reconciliation hangs in the balance". In other words, whether we are blue or green, we must unite. These are pretty words. This is the right direction. But how does she intend to achieve this? She refuses to say.

At the very moment Tsai Ing-wen was making her pledge, DPP politicians and party members were red-baiting, accusing others of "selling out Taiwan". So where was the tolerance, reconciliation, and unity Tsai trumpeted? Does it really boil down to "Obey me and live, defy me and die"? Taiwan is wracked by unprecedented political divisions. Whither the tolerance? Whither the reconciliation? Whither the solidarity? Tsai Ing-wen needs to walk the walk. She needs to do so, up close and personal.

Candidates can of course propose specific programs. But Tsai has no intention of proposing any. Besides, the major obstacle to unity on Taiwan has been disagreement on matters of national identity and cross-Strait relations. Allegiance to the Republic of China vs. allegiance to a would-be "Republic of Taiwan", guarantee blue vs. green incompatibility. Today the DPP is holding high the banner of the Republic of China. Tsai Ing-wen has pledged to uphold the existing constitutional framework. But suspicions of "backdoor listing" remain. That said, consensus has been increased. The issue of allegiances has been partially resolved. A basis for unity has perhaps emerged, Tsai Ing-wen enjoys the home court advantage. She is obligated therefore to make concrete changes.

Consider cross-Strait relations. When the KMT was in power, it reached an agreement with the CCP to treat the 1992 Consensus as the basis for cross-Strait relations. This was not a formal agreement. It was an implicit understanding. Is "one China" the Republic of China? Or is it the People's Republic of China? Each side has its own interpretation. The DPP has long clung to Taiwan independence. It now finds it difficult to accept one China, different interpretations. Today Tsai Ing-wen says she intends to uphold the status quo. She says she has accepted the Republic of China. In doing so, she has implicitly recognized the 1992 Consensus. Tsai Ing-wen might as well publicly recognize the 1992 Consensus, or suggest an alternative rationale. This would be the first step in unifying Taiwan, and stabilizing cross-Strait relations.

Consider the past. The DPP's pretty slogans have usually contradicted reality. President Chen Shui-bian shouted "higher standards" during his election campaign. But the moment he won, lower standards were the rule, leading to the "Cape 700 million" embezzlement scandal. When Frank Hsieh ran for president, he championed "reconciliation and coexistence", even while his aides were brazenly engaing in red-baiting Hsieh's opponents. Hsieh alleged that the liberalization of cross-Strait exchanges would result in "workers on Taiwan unable to find work, women on Taiwan unable to find husbands, and children on Taiwan would be exiled to Heilongjiang". Hsieh said this to frighten people. Tsai Ing-wen calls for solidarity on Taiwan. But if she fails to offer action, programs, or implementation, the entire exercise will merely become another case of political deceit and rubber checks.

Tsai Ing-wen has stressed vision and responsible government. She elaborated on the vision part. But unfortunately it failed to withstand scrutiny. On energy policy for example, she diverges from Hung Hsiu-chu. But more importantly, experts have exposed Tsai Ing-wen's fallacies. Yet the Tsai Ing-wen camp has yet to offer a satisfactory response. What manner of "vision" is this? How is evasion consistent with "responsible government"? In order to achieve victory, Tsai Ing-wen is relying on current momentum. She is attempting to muddle her way to victory. if so, Tsai Ing-wen's victory will mean the demolition of yet another politician's fancy rhetoric.

Hung Hsiu-chu has also offered her vision and political views. They include opposition to populist demagoguery and opposition to Taiwan independence. These two views have been challenged by the DPP and green camp supporters. Her public policies have been criticized by the opposition Democratic Progressive Party. Will these policies benefit Taiwan? Will they enable voters to enjoy the good life? They too need to be scrutinized.

The global economy faces great uncertainty. The national strength of the United States is waning. This has led to volatility in the East Asian strategic situation. Mainland China's economic and military rise has led to shifts in the international political equilibrium. Consider three factors. The year 2016 will be a turning point for Taiwan. This election is of critical importance. Candidates must tell voters what they think the current problems are, and how they intend to remedy them. We cannot allow voters to be deceived into supporting candidates, only to become disillusioned upon learning otherwise. The harm inflicted upon the nation, the winning candidates, and the voters is unacceptable. We solemnly urge Tsai Ing-wen and Hung Hsiu-chu to begin debating the issues.

請蔡英文與洪秀柱開始辯論

2015年09月23日 中國時報

民進黨蔡英文選情大好，總統大位勝券在握，立委席次也有過半機會。國民黨洪秀柱則聲勢低迷，缺錢缺人，卻展現出堅強的毅力與定力，在黨內冷漠與競爭對手重重壓力下，堅持反民粹、反台獨初衷，孤軍奮戰至今。隨著選戰進入短兵相接，兩位主要候選人開始公布具體政見，選民應暫時放下激情，認真檢視候選人的政見主張。

日前民進黨召開了宛如「誓師大會」的全代會，蔡英文在演說中提出責任、包容和解團結及許諾與願景三宣示。誠然，台灣需要團結，團結才能邁向願景，而這一切都有賴一個負責任的政府，她的宣示應能得到許多民眾的好感與支持。但這些宣示如何做到？怎麼實踐？卻未見論述，更談不上具體的策略或方案。在高度爭議的能源政策方面，曾經保證執政後不缺電的蔡英文，上周公布綠能政策，將把綠電（包括風電與太陽能）供應提高到20%以上。根據現有的技術與成本，綠電遠比火力發電與核電貴，因而外界推論未來電價必漲。但她立刻強調「沒預期10年內電價會上漲」。

首先探究蔡英文的三宣示，明眼人皆知，台灣最大危機在內部不團結、欠缺發展願景，政府又沒有行動力。問題的存在已經是基本常識，點出來也不難，難在於如何解決。以團結台灣來說，蔡英文說，「我們所處的十字路口，要走向分裂還是走向和解，就在一念之間。」亦即不分藍綠，都要團結起來。詞藻是很華麗，方向也很正確，但怎麼做，卻未著墨。

在她宣示的同時，許多民進黨從政黨員與同志，卻仍在編織並拋發台奸大帽，延續長期以來對他人的賣台指控。試問：這是什麼包容、和解及團結？難道順我者生、逆我者亡才能團結嗎？環顧台灣大環境，政治分裂及對立氛圍空前高漲。要怎麼包容？怎麼和解？怎麼團結？蔡英文必須提出行動方案，而且身體力行。

具體方案不是提不出，而是有沒有心要提出。何況長期以來台灣團結的主要障礙，是在國家認同與兩岸關係上彼此沒有交集，中華民國與台灣共和國間的異己關係，造成藍綠絕不相容。如今隨著民進黨高舉中華民國旗幟、蔡英文承諾遵奉現行憲政體制，「借殼上市」的疑慮雖未消除，但共識畢竟已經擴大，認同爭議部分得以解決，團結的基礎可能已經出現，蔡英文已經站上主場優勢，應有具體作為帶動改變。

至於兩岸關係，國民黨執政時期與對岸達成「九二共識」相互諒解基礎。這不是白紙黑字的協議，而是模糊的交集，對所謂的一中，到底是中華民國還是中華人民共和國，雙方各自表述。過去民進黨堅持台獨立場，難以接受一中各表，如今蔡英文提出了台灣現狀說，又接受了中華民國，其實就是對「九二共識」的默認。蔡英文大可公開接受「九二共識」或提出替代論述，這應是團結台灣、穩定兩岸的第一步。

衡諸過往，民進黨高喊漂亮口號實際卻背道而馳，並非罕見。陳水扁競選總統時高喊向上提升，執政卻向下沉淪發生「海角七億」；謝長廷競選總統提倡「和解共生」，幕僚卻大肆「抹紅」對手，更以「兩岸開放交流，台灣將出現『查甫找無工，查某找無尪，囝仔要去黑龍江』」恐嚇民眾。蔡英文呼籲台灣團結，如果沒有相應的行動方案以及具體實踐，恐怕又將淪為政治詐欺或空頭支票。

蔡英文強調願景與負責任的政府，願景部分有很多闡述，不幸卻禁不起檢驗。以能源政策為例，不但洪秀柱的主張不同，許多專家紛紛指出謬誤，蔡英文陣營卻沒有完整回應。請問這是什麼樣的願景？迴避又怎麼會是負責任的態度？從勝選角度來看，蔡英文憑藉目前的支持度，或許可以敷衍應付，模模糊糊迎向勝選，若真如此，蔡英文的勝選終究將是另一個政客華麗詞藻被戳破的開始。

洪秀柱也提出許多願景與政見，其反民粹與反台獨上兩主要願景，曾被民進黨及綠營支持者強烈質疑，她的許多具體的公共政策，也受到民進黨批評與反對，這些政見是否確實有利台灣？是否有利選民未來過好日子？同樣需要接受檢驗。

全球經濟進入高不確定性挑戰、美國國力衰退造成東亞戰略情勢風雲詭譎及中國經濟、軍事力量崛起對國際政治均衡現狀的扭曲，從這三大因素觀察，2016將是台灣的轉捩點，這次選舉非常重要。候選人有義務對選民說清楚、講明白當前的問題與自己的對策，才能讓選民不再「因誤解而熱情，因了解而無情」，對國家、對當選人、對選民不會造成三重傷害。我們提出嚴肅而誠摯建議，請蔡英文與洪秀柱開始辯論。