Will Tsai's Japan Visit "Shine a Light" on Taiwan?

Will Tsai's Japan Visit "Shine a Light" on Taiwan?
United Daily News Editorial (Taipei, Taiwan, ROC)
A Translation
October 6, 2015

Executive Summary: DPP presidential candidate Tsai Ing-wen will leave today for Japan, on a four-day "Shine a Light on Taiwan, Taiwan-Japan Friendship Tour". This visit differs from her US visit, primarily because both the DPP and Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe harbor a congenital hatred of “China” (Mainland China). Both advocate the establishment of an “Alliance of Asian Values" to counter Mainland China. Tsai Ing-wen and Abe share this anti-China hatred. How exactly do they plan to "shine a light on Taiwan"? That will be something worth watching.

Full Text Below:

DPP presidential candidate Tsai Ing-wen will leave today for Japan, on a four-day "Shine a Light on Taiwan, Taiwan-Japan Friendship Tour". This visit differs from her US visit, primarily because both the DPP and Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe harbor a congenital hatred of “China” (Mainland China). Both advocate the establishment of an “Alliance of Asian Values" to counter Mainland China. Tsai Ing-wen and Abe share this anti-China hatred. How exactly do they plan to "shine a light on Taiwan"? That will be something worth watching.

DPP policy toward Japan has been heavily influenced by two factors. The first is a legacy of Sinophobia, inherited from Taiwan independence elders within the party. The second is immersion in Lee Teng-hui's Japanophile spin on history. These two factors have inculcated a Japanophile mindset and nurtured Sinophobic hatred. The DPP diplomatic posture has long been to collude with Japan in order to oppose Mainland China.

Given its colonial subject view of history, the DPP mistakenly assumes that Japan's Sinophobia is an immutable fact, cast in stone. In fact, Sinophobia is merely Japan's justification to become a "normal nation". Sinophobia is merely Japan's stepping stone to get around its postwar pacifist constitution. Japan may oppose China. It may resist China. But in fact its Sinophobia is merely an amulet Abe wears in order to restore Japan's former glory.

The DPP apparently believes its one-sided policy of colluding with Japan to oppose Mainland China means the US-Japan axis will protect Taiwan in the event war erupts in the Taiwan Strait. It apparently believes Japan will rush to Taiwan's aid when the time comes. But lest the DPP forget, Mainland China has become Japan's number one trading partner. Mainland China and Japan now share an unshakable common destiny. Colluding with Taiwan to oppose Mainland China is nothing more than the pipe dream of a handful of Japanese right-wing politicians.

During the Chen Shui-bian era, the DPP's Japanophile policy failed to gain the Japanese government's favor. The DPP ruled for eight years. During that time, negotiations over the "Taiwan-Japan Fisheries Agreement" were convened a dozen or more times. Yet the Japanese government never once budged. As soon as the Ma administration took office however, cross-Strait relations improved substantially. Japan worried that Taiwan and the Mainland might join hands on the Diaoyutai Islands issue. As a result, Japan made significant concessions in the Taiwan-Japan fisheries agreement.

The DPP's Sinophobic stance may appear to win favor in Japan. In reality, competition in the international diplomatic arena requires wise use of cross-Strait leverage, based on real world developments, to further Taiwan's interests. In short, colluding with Japan to oppose Mainland China, is wishful thinking.

Tsai Ing-wen ignored objections from Taiwan independence elements within the party. She advocates maintaining the status quo in cross-Strait relations. Having adopted this stance, can Taipei base its relationship with Tokyo on something other than a Taiwan independence perspective on history? Tsai Ing-wen's visit to Japan will only last four days. An entire day is being devoted to the remote Yamaguchi Prefecture. Yamaguchi Prefecture is a traditional Japanese agricultural region. It has little economic relationship with Taiwan. It is however, the home of Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe. It is the home of Ito Hirobumi, who signed the Maguan Treaty (Treaty of Shimonoseki) which ceded Taiwan to Japan. It is the home of Kodama Gentaro, Japanese Governor General during Taiwan's colonial occupation, who implemented the carrot and stick policy. Superficially, the purpose of Tsai Ing-wen's visit to Yamaguchi Prefecture is investment. In fact its purpose is to curry favor with Abe. It is to demonstrate to Abe that the DPP holds the same view of Japanese colonial history and opposition to Mainland China. Clearly Tsai Ing-wen's visit to Japan remains a prisoner of the DPP's traditional Japanophilia.

Tsai Ing-wen recently proposed a "New Southern Policy". She hopes to increase cooperation with Southeast Asia and South Asia in order to reduce dependence on the Mainland China market. This echoes Abe's 2012 "Southern Industry Policy", proposed when Beijing Tokyo relations were especially tense. Tsai Ing-wen's "New Southern Policy" differs from three previous Southern Policies only because it includes the Indian subcontinent. It echoes Abe's strategy of joining with India to oppose Mainland China. Clearly Tsai Ing-wen and the DPP are still trapped within their collude with Japan to oppose Mainland China policy. Faulty execution is likely to leave Tsai and the DPP overly dependent upon Japan, while sacrificing their autonomy.

Abe recently addressed the UN General Assembly. He said Japan is committed to peaceful, stable, and mutally beneficial relations with Mainland China. Japan is softening its stance toward Mainland China. Tsai meanwhile, is still marching down the same old path, colluding with Japan to oppose Mainland China. Abe looks to a new bright spot. Tsai meanwhile, remains the victim of an old blind spot.

We look forward to friendly Taipei Tokyo relations, We hope however, that Tsai Ing-wen will refrain from inciting conflict between Taipei and Beijing, merely to shine a light on her final mile to the presidential palace.

蔡英文訪日之旅如何「點亮」台灣？

2015/10/06 聯合報

民進黨總統候選人蔡英文今天啟程訪問日本，進行為期四天的「點亮台灣，台日友好之旅」。此行與其訪美最大的不同，是民進黨與日本首相安倍都具有反中的天然基因，也都同樣主張建構亞洲價值同盟來抗衡中國大陸，在這種「反中同表」的共識下，蔡英文和安倍會擦出什麼樣的火花來「點亮」台灣，值得國人關注。

民進黨的對日政策，始終深受兩個因素影響：一方面，是繼承了黨內獨派大老的反中思維；另一方面，是受到李登輝媚日史觀之籠罩。在這種情況下，形成了它「親日」的思想基礎，並藉著「抗中」的意志為養分賴以壯大，「聯日抗中」則是它一向的外交手段。

在這樣的殖民史觀思維下，民進黨可能誤以為日本的「反中」是一成不變的定律，誤認為日本的「抗中」是千年不滅的方程式；殊不知，「反中」只是日本成為正常國家的藉口，「抗中」則是日本跳脫戰後和平憲法的墊腳石。對日本而言，無論「反中」或「抗中」，其實都只是安倍企圖恢復日本昔日榮光的護身符。

在這種對日一面倒的政策下，民進黨似乎相信，只要堅持「聯日抗中」的道路，美日同盟勢將會成為台灣的最佳保護傘，萬一台灣海峽出現軍事衝突，日本一定會適時出手援助台灣。但民進黨卻忘了，中國大陸早已成為日本最大的貿易夥伴，中日兩國也成為不可動搖的命運共同體，「聯台抗中」其實只是日本少數右翼政客的政治想像。

從實證上看，在過去陳水扁執政時期，民進黨的親日政策其實並未能取得日本政府的青睞。舉例而言，在民進黨執政的八年當中，「台日漁業協議」雖歷經十餘次的談判，日本政府仍然堅不讓步；反而是馬政府上台之後，在兩岸關係大幅改善的情況下，日本擔心台灣在釣魚台問題上與中國大陸聯手，因而在台日漁業協議上作出重大的讓步。

由此可見，民進黨的「反中」立場，表面上，似乎是可以用來拉攏日本；實質上，在國際外交競賽場域，必須善用兩岸關係的高低槓桿，視實際發展務實運用，才能爭取台灣最大的利益。簡言之，「聯日抗中」不能流於一廂情願。

蔡英文不顧黨內獨派的反對，在兩岸關係上極力主張維持現狀；標榜這樣的立場，對台日關係而言，能否跳脫過去獨派史觀的窠臼呢？我們看蔡英文這次的行程安排，在僅僅四天的訪日行程中，她刻意安排其中一天進到偏遠的山口縣訪問。山口縣是日本傳統的農業縣，與台灣的經濟關係並不密切；重點在，它不但是日本首相安倍的故鄉，也是簽署馬關條約割讓台灣的伊藤博文、和日治時期實施懷柔政策的總督兒玉源太郎的故鄉。從這樣的線索觀察，蔡英文到山口縣訪問，表面上說是要進行招商，實質上是為了拉攏及討好安倍，以示民進黨和安倍抱持相同的殖民史觀及反中立場。由此看來，蔡英文的訪日之行，仍然無法跳脫民進黨傳統媚日的思維。

從政策面來看，日前蔡英文提出「新南向政策」，希望透過加強與東南亞及南亞國家的經濟合作關係，來降低對中國大陸市場的依賴。這與安倍在二○一二年中日關係緊張之際所提出的「企業南進政策」，是相互呼應的。另外，蔡英文這次的「新南向政策」與台灣過去三次南向政策最大的不同，是其範圍涵括了南亞大陸的印度；這點，與目前安倍提出的「聯印抗中」戰略，也完全是若合符節的。由此可見，蔡英文仍然無法擺脫過往民進黨「聯日抗中」的政策路線；而萬一操作欠佳，她極可能使自己過度阿附日本，而失去了自主性。

安倍日前在聯合國大會上表示：在中日兩國之間，日本要致力於發展和平與穩定的關係，並進一步邁向共同戰略的互利關係。在日本正朝向中日關係緩和的同時，蔡英文卻還在走著過往聯日抗中的老路；安倍希望走出新亮點，而蔡英文卻仍抱持自己的舊盲點。

我們期待台日關係友好，卻不希望蔡英文在日本擦出挑激兩岸矛盾的火花，來點亮她在台灣大選的最後一哩路。