Wednesday, November 4, 2015

Ma Xi Summit: New Course, New Thinking

Ma Xi Summit: New Course, New Thinking
United Daily News Editorial (Taipei, Taiwan, ROC)
A Translation
November 5, 2015


Executive Summary: Two years ago, the idea of a "Wang Zhang summit" was floated for the first time. Many felt it would be tough to implement. After a three year delay, the Ma Xi summit will finally take place. Clearly wishing was not enough. Bold action was required to succeed. This Saturday, the Ma Xi summit will convene. Tsai Ing-wen's proudly trumpeted "maintaining the status quo" will promptly be rendered obsolete.

Full Text Below:

Last year hopes for a Ma Xi summit at the APEC conference at Yanqi Lake in Beijing were dashed. Now, unexpectedly, the summit will take place in Singapore, the birthplace of the 1992 Consensus. The summit conveys strong suggestions of political continuity. President Ma's term is drawing to a close. Xi Jinping is implementing a global strategy. Leaders from the two sides are meeting for the first time after being separated for 66 years. The summit ushers in a new era of peace. It is also attracting international attention.

The Ma Xi summit, from initiative to realization, endured nearly three years of twists and turns. It failed to materialize before because both parties were too obstinate and lacked the necessary vision. First, consider the subjective factors. The Taiwan Affairs Office now appears willing to engage in cross-Strait negotiations. But it was slow to take action. As a result, the Ma Xi summit, rife with political significance, remained stalled. The Mainland side misjudged the situation and hobbled itself. Meanwhile, the Ma administration was bound hand and foot by internal constraints. The administration was overwhelmed. This made Beijing hesitant to commit to a meeting. The opportunity was lost.

Secondly, consider the objective factors. The two parties listed preconditions for a Ma Xi summit, including format, location, name, and other technical matters. These presented unnecessary obstacles. For example, our side insisted that the Beijing APEC was ideal for a Ma Xi summit. Xi Jinping would enjoy a home court advantage, and President Ma would attend in his capacity as an "economic leader". But APEC is an international conference. Therefore Beijing had concerns. If heads of state from Taipei and Beijing met in such a venue, Beijing would have trouble spinning its significance, both internally and externally. Therefore it insisted on convening the summit in a "third locale". The two sides missed an opportunity for a summit in Beijing during APEC. Cross-Strait relations subsequently encountered headwinds.

The Ma Xi summit will be held in Singapore, a “third locale where Beijing and Singapore established diplomatic relations 25 years ago. It is also where Taiwan and the Mainland, motivated by a shared sense of crisis, are thinking and acting anew.

Now consider how the situation has changed. The KMT was routed in the nine in one elections. It faces another rout in the 2016 general election. Tsai Ing-wen's election prospects appear bright. This increases Beijing's concerns about the future of cross-Strait relations. In the event they deteriorate, a return to today's peace will be impossible. Beijing therefore feels it must affirm the Ma administration's efforts to improve cross-Strait relations, and the two sides' efforts on behalf of peace. Only then can it prevent cross-Strait relations from deteriorating beyond repair. This constitutes a new course in cross-Strait relations. Had the two sides held a Ma Xi summit last year, the KMT would not be in its current pickle.

This new course allows the two sides to convene a Ma Xi summit, one that embodies new thinking and breaks new ground. The annual APEC meeting will be held in Manila this November. But the conflict in the South China Sea scotched any plans by Xi Jinping to visit the Philippines. Instead, Singapore has invited Xi Jinping to Singapore to celebrate the 25th anniversary of diplomatic relations between Singapore and Beijing. This in turn paved the way for a Ma Xi summit. The two parties are unwilling to forgo the opportunity for a summit while Ma is still in office.

Cross-Strait relations over the next four to eight years could be filled with twists and turns. A summit might never materialize. As a result, differences over venue, timing, and content, are now regarded as secondary in importance and have been shelved. Time and tide have compelled both sides to overcome past obstacles.

The Ma Xi summit in Singapore is a good choice, for both sides. Singapore was the venue for the Koo-Wang talks and the birthplace of the 1992 Consensus. Leaders from the two sides will now meet there to update the 1992 Consensus. Lee Kuan Yew and his son Lee Hsien Loong have a history of facilitating cross-Strait reconciliation. As hosts they have the two sides' trust, and are able to make appropriate and equitable arrangements, . The next question is what the Ma Xi summit will offer as far as content. Members of the public on both sides feel they have already benefitted. The mere fact that their leaders are meeting implies that cross-Strait peace will endure. If so, international applause is a forgone conclusion.

The DPP reacted vehemently to the Ma Xi summit yesterday. It issued five statements. It raised seven objections. It basted the timing, the status of the two parties, and the negotiation process. It said Ma must not undermine the dignity of the nation. In fact, every move of the Ma Xi summit will be carried out under global scrutiny. The Executive Yuan will be required to report to the Legislative Yuan. How can Ma possibly do anything contrary to the national interest? Furthermore, the Ma Xi summit will set a precedent. Even if the ruling party on Taiwan changes, leaders from the two sides will still be able to meet this way. This is surely easier than the DPP's promotion of high-level consultations, is it not?

Two years ago, the idea of a "Wang Zhang summit" was floated for the first time. Many felt it would be tough to implement. After a three year delay, the Ma Xi summit will finally take place. Clearly wishing was not enough. Bold action was required to succeed. This Saturday, the Ma Xi summit will convene. Tsai Ing-wen's proudly trumpeted "maintaining the status quo" will promptly be rendered obsolete.

觀察「馬習會」的新脈絡與新思維
2015-11-05 聯合報

去年曾被寄予厚望卻未能實現的APEC北京雁棲湖「馬習會」,如今意外成局,地點選在「九二共識」萌芽地的新加坡舉行,別具傳承之意。在馬總統任期接近尾聲、在習近平正展開環球戰略重新布局之際,兩岸領導人在兩岸分隔六十六年之後首度會面,不僅將寫下和平新頁,也深受國際矚目。

「馬習會」從最初倡議到成局,前後歷經近三年的迂迴曲折;稍早之所以功敗垂成,無非是雙方協商者心態太過拘泥所致,缺乏與時俱進的推演想像。首先,在主觀因素上:國台辦對當前的兩岸事務性協商似乎感到於願足矣,而怠於向前跨躍推進;也因此,對於「馬習會」這樣具高度政治意義的安排,便顯得止步不前,這是誤判形勢與自我設限。相對的,近兩年馬政府一再受國內形勢掣肘,顯得無暇他顧,這也讓北京方面對「馬習會」的安排感到遲疑,因而貽誤了時機。

其次,在客觀因素上:雙方對於「馬習會」的形式、地點、稱謂等技術性問題各有堅持,造成不必要的困擾。例如,我方先前堅持北京APEC是「馬習會」的最佳場合,認為習近平擁有「主場」地位,而馬總統則可以「經濟領袖」身分出席;但北京方面忌憚APEC是國際會議場合,台灣元首如果與會,對北京易滋對內及對外的解說難題,從而主張在「第三地」舉行。然而,一錯過北京APEC的機遇,兩岸關係就遇上了可能逆轉的暗流。

這次「馬習會」得以成局,除了借重中星建交廿五周年這個「第三地」的時、地之便,另一方面,也是雙方對於兩岸關係的維繫在某種共同的危機感下,對於兩岸「新脈絡」觸發了「新思維」。

且看這段期間的形勢變化:國民黨歷經九合一選舉的慘敗,又面對二○一六大選的頹勢,蔡英文則形勢大好。這讓北京擔心,兩岸關係未來一旦倒退,即將再也無法重返今天的和平狀態,因而必須對馬政府推動兩岸交流的努力給予肯定,並對雙方追求和平的立場作出更積極的宣示,以免兩岸關係退至無可回復之地步。這是雙方看待兩岸關係的新脈絡。事實上,如果雙方去年能促成「馬習會」,國民黨今天的局勢也不致如此雪上加霜。

在這樣的新脈絡下,雙方對「馬習會」的安排便有了「新思維」,並有了突破。今年APEC年會十一月將在馬尼拉舉行,但由於南海齟齬,習近平未計畫赴菲與會;此時,新加坡邀請習近平往訪慶祝星中建交廿五周年,則為「馬習會」鋪平了這條道路。雙方的主要思維是:一旦錯失了在馬總統任內完成兩岸領導人會晤的壯舉,那麼,接下來的四年或八年兩岸關係可能坎坷曲折,領導人峰會即再會無期。也因此,雙方在場合、時機和會晤內容上的分歧,也就被視為次要問題而暫擱;形勢和時機的迫促,反而讓雙方有了跳躍障礙的能量。

在新加坡舉行「馬習會」,對兩岸都是一個絕佳選擇。新加坡當年因為「辜汪會談」而成為「九二共識」的萌芽地,在此舉行兩岸領導人會談,有重新詮釋九二共識的作用。不僅如此,李光耀和李顯龍父子兩代都是追求兩岸和解的「調解人」,能以東道主身分作出最適當、公正的安排,值得兩岸信任。接下來的問題,就要看馬、習雙方將端出什麼樣的「內容設計」,既在形式上讓兩岸人民覺得各有斬獲而不虛此會,又在實質上傳遞出兩岸和平不會倒退的訊息;果真如此,贏得國際的掌聲自非難事。

對於「馬習會」,民進黨昨天反應強烈,發表五大聲明,就時機、對等性、交涉過程等提出七大質疑,並要求不可作出任何傷害國格的行為。事實上,「馬習會」每一步棋都是在全球注目下進行,行政院並已就此向立法院提出報告,如何可能作出違背國家利益的事?再說,「馬習會」此次開了先例之後,未來即使台灣政黨輪替,兩岸領導人仍可援此模式安排會晤,這絕對比民進黨推動兩岸高層會商容易得多,不是嗎?

兩年前,當「王張會」的構想首度被提及時,許多人也覺得設計上困難重重;但曾幾何時,蹉跎三年的「馬習會」如今也已水到渠成了。可見,對願景懷有瞻矚還不夠,必須有強烈的推動企圖才能成事。周六「馬習會」一開,蔡英文自詡的「維持現狀」立刻就顯得落後了。


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