Ma Xi Summit: Political Assets Yield Economic Benefits

Ma Xi Summit: Political Assets Yield Economic Benefits
China Times Editorial (Taipei, Taiwan, ROC)
A Translation
November 9, 2015

Executive Summary: The Ma Xi summit led neither to the issuing of a joint statement, nor the signing of a joint agreement. But leaders from the two sides conversed and dined as equals in a dignified setting. They wrote a new page in cross-Strait history. They garnered international approval. The Ma Xi summit will improve cross-Strait relations. It will help the two sides to accept each other's jurisdiction, even as they reject each other's sovereignty. It will help the two sides accept the "one country, two governments" model, with undivided sovereignty and divided jurisdiction. If the two sides can reach closer agreement, and the political status of Taiwan can be clarified, Taiwan's future will be even brighter.

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The Ma Xi summit led neither to the issuing of a joint statement, nor the signing of a joint agreement. But leaders from the two sides conversed and dined as equals in a dignified setting. They wrote a new page in cross-Strait history. They garnered international approval. The Ma Xi summit will improve cross-Strait relations. It will help the two sides to accept each other's jurisdiction, even as they reject each other's sovereignty. It will help the two sides accept the "one country, two governments" model, with undivided sovereignty and divided jurisdiction. If the two sides can reach closer agreement, and the political status of Taiwan can be clarified, Taiwan's future will be even brighter.

The KMT vs CCP civil war divided the two sides for 66 years. Their leaders never met each other. They knew each other existed. But they acted as if they did not. Over the years cross-Strait relations have improved. Exchanges have taken place on a solid foundation. But neither side has recognized the other. The Ma Xi summit has enabled the two sides to reach a consensus on undivided sovereignty with divided jurisdiction. This is an important step in the establishment of cross-Strait peace.

Economic theory suggests that human beings faced with uncertainty tend to avoid risks. Uncertainty dogged cross-Strait relations under Chen Shui-bian. The two sides were at one time on the brink of war. Business owners must plan their business operations and choose their business models. They must consider the possible risks. As a result, they are compelled to hedge their bets when investing on either Taiwan or the Mainland. Ordinary citizens spend large sums to obtain foreign passports. They travel to dangerous and chaotic lands far from home. This widespread hedging bleeds resources and inflicts enormous harm on Taiwan's economy.

The Mainland is too big, and Taiwan is too small. For the Mainland, cross-Strait relations is merely one among many of its problems. For Taiwan, cross-Strait relations is everything. It impacts everything, domestic and international. If cross-Strait relations are stabilized, Taiwan can enjoy a peace dividend. Current problems can be solved.

First consider Taiwan's economic plight. This year, economic growth figures were dismal. The latest growth figure was -1.01% for the third quarter. The annual growth figure was under 1%. Two think tanks, the Chinese Economic Research Institute, and the Taiwan Institute of Economic Research, have revised their annual growth rate downward, to 0.9% and 0.8%. Improved cross-Strait relations will enable Taiwan to share in the Mainland's near 7% rapid growth rate. No country in the world today is willing to offend Mainland China, the second-largest economy in the world, soon to be the biggest. Stabilizing cross-Strait relations will enable Taiwan to liberalize its economy and let in a steady stream of capital. In other words, the scale and scope provided by Mainland factories, can address Taiwan's plight and help Taiwan's growth. Taiwan business owners can invest on both sides. They can invest heavily on the Mainland, expand into overseas markets, and seek profit maximization, to the eventual benefit of everyone on Taiwan.

A second benefit is relief for Taiwan's fiscal plight. Fiscal imbalances have increased the deficit to about 100 billion NT per year. The government is living on borrowed money. The government has no money for urban renewal, long-term health care, and other major projects. Pensions may be slashed. This will inevitably lead to political turmoil and pension reform. Stable cross-Strait relations mean that Taiwan need not spend so much on defense, on white elephant military hardware. The money saved can then be devoted to infrastructure. In 2004, arms purchases amounted to 618 billion NT. These weapons and equipment burn money every minute and every second of the day. They undermine the public interest. Future budgets must reduce them to a minimum.

Uncertain cross-Strait relations also affects the free movement of human talent. According to the World Economic Forum (WEF) 2015 Global Competitiveness Index, the ROC ranked last among seven Asian-Pacific nations in its "ability to attract talent", two years in a row. The International Institute for Management Development released a Competitiveness Report last year. Taiwan's ranking fell to 27th in the world, four places from the previous year. This was its worst showing in a decade. Cross-Strait peace will enable Taiwan became the ideal springboard for the Mainland market. It can attract large numbers of talented people. This can greatly boost Taiwan's growth. Students from Taiwan can experience the mountains and rivers of the Mainland as their own. An in-depth understanding will prepare them well for a future in the Mainland market. Young people need not settle for “the little things that make us happy”. They need resign themselves to being a small shopkeeper in some alley on Taiwan. They can spread their wings on the Mainland and become regional managers for major companies.

Sound cross-Strait political relations and the signing of a peace agreement will not just ensure lasting peace. Even more importantly, it will ensure continued divided jurisdiction. Economic theory tells us that competition is the best way to ensure the general welfare. In the past, the cross-Strait struggle was between the KMT and CCP, between capitalism and communism.  Today the system adopted by the entire world is a mixed economy that is neither capitalism nor communism. Different means of governance however, mean ways of living. The two sides can maintain their own systems and means of governance. They can care for their people in their own manner. This will create a virtuous cycle, with each side acting as a mirror for the other, as a model for emulation, and ensure the greatest benefit for all the people.

馬習會政治資產的經濟利益

2015年11月09日 中國時報

馬習會雖然未發表聯合聲明、未簽署協議，但兩岸領導人在對等、尊嚴情況下會談並共進晚餐，不僅寫下兩岸和平新頁，也深受國際肯定。馬習會的政治資產可望讓兩岸逐漸由「主權互不承認、治權互不否認」走向「主權互不分裂、治權相互承認」的「一國兩府」模式，如果兩岸能形成更大共識，台灣政治地位當可漸趨明朗，為台灣的永續發展開啟廣大的空間。

國共內戰後，兩岸分裂66年，領導人從未見過面，彼此知道存在，但都視為無物。這些年來，雖然兩岸關係改善，互動往來建立在互不否認的基礎上，但還沒有到互相承認的地步。隨著馬習會的舉行，兩岸形成「主權不分裂」共識，對治權的互相承認是重要一步，兩岸和平紅利可以確立。

經濟學理論認為，人類在不確定情況下如何規避風險，是行為的主宰。過去因為兩岸關係的不確定性，甚至阿扁主政時代曾瀕臨戰爭邊緣。企業主在布局公司營運及思考商業模式運行時，必須將可能的風險考慮納進來，因此企業對台灣及大陸都採行某些避險措施。一般老百姓則花大錢謀取第三國護照，或奉行危邦不入、亂邦不居古訓遠赴他鄉。民間普遍的避險行為造成資源流失，對台灣經濟傷害很大。

大陸太大，台灣太小，對大陸而言，兩岸關係只是諸多問題的一環。對台灣而言，兩岸關係幾乎是全部，影響了所有的內政與外交。一旦雙方關係確立，台灣就可以享受更大的和平紅利，目前的諸多問題也可以迎刃而解。

首先是台灣經濟發展的困境。今年經濟成長相當糟糕，最近公布第3季的成長率為-1.01%，造成全年度成長率可能不保1%。中華經濟研究院、台灣經濟研究院兩大智庫，已將全年度成長率下修到0.9%及0.8%。兩岸關係更加緊密後，台灣將可以分享大陸仍然接近7%的中高速成長。今天世界上沒有一個國家會為台灣而得罪世界第二大、正邁向世界最大經濟體的中國大陸，確認兩岸關係當能讓台灣小型開放經濟體有源源不斷活水注入。換句話說，利用大陸大工廠及大市場的規模及廣闊的國際經貿空間，可解決台灣的市場困境，協助台灣經濟增長。今後台灣的企業主可以真正布局兩岸，深耕大陸，拓展海外市場，謀取利潤的極大化，最後台灣全民雨露均霑。

台灣第二個受惠項目是解決目前財政困窘的問題。由於財政收支不平衡，政府已經捉襟見肘，每年財政赤字約1000億，需要舉債度日。受此影響，政府也沒有錢推動都市更新、長照制度等重大施政項目，還可能要大砍各式退休金，推動難免引發政治風暴的年金改革。未來兩岸關係穩定時，台灣就不用再花大把經費在國防預算，買一堆大而無當的武器，省下來的錢就可以推動各項建設。2004年軍購案花費6180億元，這些武器裝備動靜之間，分分秒秒都在燒錢，損及全民利益，未來預算當可盡量減編。

兩岸關係的不確定也影響人才的流向。據世界經濟論壇（WEF）提出的2015年全球競爭力指數，台灣在「吸引人才」項目排名，在亞太7國中排倒數第1，2年來連續位居最末；瑞士洛桑管理學院去年發布的人才競爭力報告也指出，台灣排名較前年退步4名，全球排名僅27名，為10年來最糟一次。當兩岸和平穩定發展，台灣成為進入大陸市場最好的跳板與樞紐，就可大量吸引優秀人才，非常有助於台灣的發展。對於台灣學生來講，可以將大山大水視為己有，深入了解，給自己最好的訓練，未來在大陸市場一展長才。年輕人就不會小確幸到只求固守在台灣的巷弄當店長，而可以到大陸當某個省的大店長，施展鴻鵠之志。

兩岸政治關係確立後，即可簽署和平協定，民眾不但可以確保長久的和平，更可貴之處在兩岸治權依然保持競爭。經濟學理論告訴我們，競爭是確保大眾福利的最佳機制，過去兩岸之爭是國共之爭，是資本主義與共產主義的鬥爭，今日世界各國採行的制度，已無單純資本主義與共產主義之分，都是混合式經濟制度。但因為治理方式不同，人民過日子的感覺就不同。兩岸仍然可以維持制度之爭與治理之爭，各憑本事照顧老百姓，這樣可以有良性循環，互相為鏡，見賢思齊，讓民眾有最大的幸福。