US Rattles Sabers in South China Sea

US Rattles Sabers in South China Sea 
United Daily News Editorial (Taipei, Taiwan, ROC)
A Translation
November 2, 2015

Executive Summary: The US Navy's Arleigh Burke Class Aegis destroyer Lassen recently sailed through the South China Sea, past Subi Reef and Meichi ("Mischief") Reef. The People's Liberation Army Navy sent the Lanzhou missile destroyer and Taizhou frigate to track the Lassen the entire way. The two sides gave advance notice and insisted they were keeping the peace. But this brief confrontation,  this historical moment, conveyed a surreal feeling.

Full Text Below: 

The US Navy's Arleigh Burke Class Aegis destroyer Lassen recently sailed through the South China Sea, past Subi Reef and Meichi ("Mischief") Reef. The People's Liberation Army Navy sent the Lanzhou missile destroyer and Taizhou frigate to track the Lassen the entire way. The two sides gave advance notice and insisted they were keeping the peace. But this brief confrontation,  this historical moment, conveyed a surreal feeling.

The United States' action was a provocation. But its action were measured, and part of a larger plan. US reconnaissance planes provided air cover. An aircraft carrier in nearby waters was assigned a twofold mission. One. Monitoring and recording. Two. Emergency readiness. US warships patrolled the waters around the Philippines and Vietnam as well. This was intended to demonstrate that their "defense of Freedom of Navigation" in the South China Sea was non-discriminatory. These prevented the Peoples Liberation Army from acting rashly.

PRC and US warships faced off in the South China Sea, raising eyebrows the world over. Planes and ships came and went. But more worthy of attention was the two sides' decision-making posture. In May, the Senate Armed Services Committee demanded that the Department of Defense make a show of force in the South China Sea, to "defend Freedom of Navigation". But the White House sat on the request for some time. Defense department officials began to feel anxious. They repeatedly released photos of Mainland land reclamation efforts on South China Sea islands and reefs. They sought to shape public opinion. The Obama administration waited until the Obama-Xi summit was over to approve action. It ordered the DOD not to allow conflict with the other side to erupt. Obama has clearly sought a balance between diplomatic and military options.

The response from Mainland China was the same. Statements were issued primarily by the PRC Ministry of Foreign Affairs rather than military officers. The Ministry urged the US to think twice, and avoid rash action. It summoned US Ambassador Max Baucus in protest. The Mainland media interviewed the PRC Ambassador to the US, who criticized US authorities. The timing of US saber rattling coincided with the CCP's Fifth Plenary Session. The Plenary Session may reassign high-level PLA personnel to avoid further complications. The Beijing authorities have deliberately downplayed hardline rhetoric. They have temporarily muzzled the media. News reports merely quote official statements.

Statements by the United States have been deliberately low profile as well, to avoid provoking Mainland China. The White House has instructed DoD officials not to issue press releases or make public comments. When Secretary of Defense Ashton Carter responded to questions the next day at a Senate Military Commission hearing, he was hesitant and uncertain. He said merely that whatever people were reading in the newspapers was accurate.

Furthermore, military officials from both sides immediately began dialogue. PLA Navy Commander Wu Shengli video conferenced with US Chief of Naval Operations John Richardson on October 29. US Pacific Fleet Commander Harry Harris announced that he would visit Mainland China that day. US Pacific Fleet Commander Richardson and Harris are the commanders who ordered US warships to enter the South China Sea.  The officer directly in charge of the Lassen also plans to visit Mainland China in the coming weeks.  This shows that both sides want to continue communicating, and do not want to touch off a powder keg.

The two sides' stances over South China Sea sovereignty are diametrically opposed. The Mainland claims historical sovereignty over the South China Sea. It says that its island and reef land reclamation is for peaceful purposes. The United States claims that the artificial islands and reefs are for military use and impede freedom of navigation. But in view of the bigger picture, neither side is willing to allow the South China Sea issue undermine bilateral relations. Changes to the current situation can be viewed from two perspectives. One. Objectively, the PLA Navy is not as powerful as the US Navy. It is probably not even as powerful as the Japanese Maritime Self-Defense Force. Preparing a military to fight a war is not an overnight process. It requires strategic patience, and even more, financial resources. Mainland economic growth has slowed. The defense budget has grown year after year. But it has limits. Its defense technology still lags behind that of other nations. Unfortunately this is an objective reality.

Two. Subjectively, PLA military fighting strength is inadequate. It must accept the olive branch offered by the United States. The two sides continue to communicate, while suppressing bellicose rhetoric at home, thereby avoiding problems for policy makers. But communications are communication. The Mainland will not compromise on matters of principle. It will stress that the United States is not a party to the South China Sea dispute, and has no excuse to meddle in regional affairs. After all, the South China Sea is on China's doorstep. As the PRC Foreign Ministry suggested: "If other parties repeatedly raise tensions in the region, the Mainland may well accelerate relevant construction."

Recent US action was meant to show Washington's allies in the Asian-Pacific region that its security assurances remain in effect. This helps Vietnam and the Philippines, who need US military protection. It also encourages Japan and Australia to engage in joint military action. Japan and Australia have also issued statements reaffirming freedom of navigation. But given political sensitivities, neither has committed to joint patrols with the United States in the South China Sea.

Taiping Island is recognized as Republic of China territory under international law. Of that there is no doubt. The problem is that our sovereignty over South China Sea islands and reefs overlaps with claims by five other governments. All of them are busy with island and reef land reclamation. The United States says this forces it to take military action. Such action however, accelerates Mainland military deployment. This has reduced the disputants' fuzzy sovereignty over these waters. The South China Sea situation is changing. This presents an unavoidable challenge to whoever becomes ROC president next year.

美軍南海示威攪亂誰的一池春水

2015-11-02 聯合報

美軍「拉森號」神盾驅逐艦日前進入南海渚碧礁和美濟礁海域巡航，中共解放軍也派出「蘭州號」導彈驅逐艦和「台州號」護衛艦一路尾隨。雙方的演出，雖然各如其原先的預告般保持和平對應的態勢；但這樣短短的交鋒場景，仍給人一種歷史時刻般的不真實感。

此次行動，雖是美國主動挑釁與試探，其行動仍步步為營，策劃周全。美方除了部署偵察機在空中掩護，並派出一艘航空母艦駛入附近水域，一則監視和記錄行動過程，二則準備應對任何突發狀況。此外，美艦也特別繞到菲律賓與越南的海域巡弋，以示其自由通過南海行動是「一視同仁」。這些，都讓解放軍不敢輕舉妄動。

中美軍艦這次在南海的過招，舉世矚目；但除了機艦的來來去去，更值得我們注意的是雙方的政治決策思維。美國國防部五月間應參議院軍事委員會的要求，即急於在南海展示武力以宣示「自由航行」；但白宮把此事壓了甚久，讓一些國防官員備感焦急，因而不斷發放中共在南海島礁從事工程建設的照片，以營造輿論氣氛。歐巴馬政府一直等到「歐習會」後才批准行動，並要求以「不與對方發生衝突」為前提；可見，歐巴馬在外交決策和軍事行動間小心地權衡。

中國大陸的反應亦然，相關發言主要由外交系統負責，而非軍方主導。外交部除奉勸美方要三思而後行，勿輕舉妄動，並召見美國駐華大使博卡斯表達抗議，大陸駐美大使也接受媒體訪問批評美國當局。尤其，美艦示威時機正值中共的「五中全會」，會中可能調整解放軍高層人事，為避免節外生枝，北京當局也刻意低調處理，所有強硬的言論都暫時消音，媒體只報導，要評論也只能引用官方認可的論調。

同樣的，美方的發言也刻意保持低調，避免激怒中方。白宮指示國防部官員，不要對巡航發布新聞或公開評論；也因此，國防部長卡特事發次日在參議院軍委會的聽證會上吞吞吐吐，不知如何作答，只稱：「你在報上讀到的東西，是準確的。」

不僅如此，雙方軍事官員立即展開對話。中共海軍司令員吳勝利，廿九日晚與美國海軍作戰部長理查森視頻通話；隨後，美軍太平洋司令哈里斯宣布將在今天訪問中國。理查森與哈里斯正是美艦進入南海行動的指揮者，而直接管轄「拉森號」的美國太平洋艦隊司令也計畫在未來幾周訪華；這代表著雙方有繼續溝通的意願，不想擦槍走火。

中美雙方對南海主權的立場，是針鋒相對的。中國大陸自認對南海有歷史主權，建設島礁是和平用途；而美方則認為人造島礁是為了軍事用途，將妨礙自由航行權。然而，在大局考量下，雙方都無意為了南海問題而破壞雙邊關係。目前情勢的變化可從兩方面觀察。首先，從客觀條件上看，解放軍海上實力不僅不如美軍，甚至遜於日本海上自衛隊；建軍備戰並非一蹴可幾，需要戰略忍耐，更需要財政支援。目前大陸經濟成長趨緩，雖然國防預算年年成長，但畢竟有其極限，而國防科技仍遠落人後，這都是無奈的客觀現實。

其次，就主觀條件而言，中共軍事戰力不如人，只好先接下美方的橄欖枝，雙方繼續溝通，同時壓制國內的好戰言論，不要給決策者製造難題。但溝通歸溝通，我們估計中方在原則問題上不會讓步，也將強調美國不是南海當事國，指其無由干預地區事務。畢竟，南海就在中國門口，就如中共外交部留下的伏筆：「如果有關方面一再在本地區製造緊張，也許會使中方加快相關建設。」

美國這次行動，是要向亞太盟國證明華府的安全保證是有效的，這不僅對需要美軍保護的越南和菲律賓有用，間接也鼓勵可能加入美軍聯合行動的日本與澳洲。日澳兩國也發表聲明，重申航行自由，但考慮事情敏感，兩國都迄未承諾未來會與美國並肩巡弋南海。

太平島是國際法公認的我國領土，已毫無疑議。問題在，我國南海其他島礁和其他五國有主權重疊之爭，如今各國競相填島造陸，迫使美國採取軍事行動，從而又可能加速中共的軍事部署。如此一來，將使得各國過去在此一海域採取的模糊主權空間越來越縮小。南海情勢正在變化，這是明年台灣新總統無法迴避的挑戰。