Pardon Chen! Taiwan Independence Hardliners' First Warning to Tsai Ing-wen

Pardon Chen! Taiwan Independence Hardliners' First Warning to Tsai Ing-wen
United Daily News Editorial (Taipei, Taiwan, ROC)
A Translation
April 11, 2016

Executive Summary: The DPP convened a party plenary session over the weekend, and passed a resolution to "govern humbly, reform steadily”. On the surface at least, the entire party welcomes the advent of the new regime. The atmosphere is seemingly one of unity and jubilation. But in fact, as the government reveals how it intends to allocate benefits, factional infighting has broken out. Over the past two days, Taiwan independence hardliners and the Kaohsiung City Government and City Council have demanded a pardon for Chen Shui-bian. In fact, they have already threatened Tsai Ing-wen.

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The DPP convened a party plenary session over the weekend, and passed a resolution to "govern humbly, reform steadily”. On the surface at least, the entire party welcomes the advent of the new regime. The atmosphere is seemingly one of unity and jubilation. But in fact, as the government reveals how it intends to allocate benefits, factional infighting has broken out. Over the past two days, Taiwan independence hardliners and the Kaohsiung City Government and City Council have demanded a pardon for Chen Shui-bian. In fact, they have already threatened Tsai Ing-wen.

The Kaohsiung City Council's demand that Chen Shui-bain be pardoned was originally intended to embarrass President Ma. But everyone knows the score. Timing, legitimacy, and politics prevent Ma Ying-jeou from ever making a decision so contrary to justice and public opinion just before leaving office. Therefore this demand from a local DPP city council is actually directed at Tsai Ing-wen. The hope is that when she becomes president, she will free Chen Shui-bian, even help him “receive justice”, and “prove his innocence”. The goal is to enable the green camp to vent eight years of accumulated spleen.

The problem is however, that Tsai Ing-wen's new government has just traveled its first mile. If the very first thing it does is “vindicate” the notoriously corrupt Chen Shui-bian, if it exempts him from further prosecution on the grounds of illness, or even overturns his convictions, then how can Tsai Ing-wen possibly persuade the public she is “Shining a light on Taiwan"? If she can so readily override national laws, betray the justice system for the sake of a corrupt former president, how can she demonstrate her commitment to “judicial reform"?

We cannot believe Tsai Ing-wen's first step will be a presidential pardon for Chen Shui-bian. At least, that is not her preference. Doing so would make her new administration stumble. It would immediately lead to the loss the trust by a majority of the public, and make it difficult for her to govern. The “Pardon Chen” issue, officially promoted by the Tainan and Kaohsiung city councils, is gathering momentum. Many DPP legislators and elders have expressed support. Under these conditions, Tsai Ing-wen must either respond or simply dodge the issue altogether.

At at deeper level, demands that Chen Shui-ban be pardoned can be seen as deep green Taiwan independence hardliners' issuing Tsai Ing-wen her first ultimatum. During the election, Taiwan independence hardliners sought ruling party change. As a result they maintained an extraordinary silence when Tsai Ing-wen openly  advocated "maintaining the status quo". When questioned about cross-Strait policy, they declined to comment. Tsai Ing-wen will soon be in power. She has reiterated her intention to promote cross-Strait relations on the basis of the "ROC constitutional framework". Even the DPP version of the Cross-Strait Agreement Oversight Regulations abandoned the "two states theory". It will be difficult to hold back Taiwan independence hardliners without making concessions to them.

Taiwan independence hardliners bit their tongues becauseed they wanted to ensure the Democratic Progressive Party's return to power. Now that the green camp is back in power, they naturally expect to be rewarded. They waited and waited. But so far new government "goodies" have been conferred only  upon the "Yin Faction”. Other factions have benefited little. If Taiwan independence hardliners' patience is not rewarded, the “Pardon Chen” issue will explode.

The “Pardon Chen” movement was launched by Taiwan independence hardliners in the south, where  it quickly spread. The issue is specific, familiar, and easy to demagogue. First, pretend it is directed at Ma Ying-jeou. This will enable one to pretend it is not directed at Tsai Ing-wen. Next, have local green camp elected representatives and government leaders demagogue the issue. One can then assemble a mighty army, and force Tsai Ing-wen to pay attention. The most interesting case is Ko Wen-je, whose popularity is at a low ebb. Yesterday, by an most amazing coincidence, Ko journeyed south to look in on Chen, and played the “Pardon Chen” issue for all it was worth. Dr. Ko examined Chen, and concluded Chen was "wasted”. But as Ko Wen-je knows full well, waste has its uses.

Ko Wen-je has jumped out at this moment in response to Taiwan independence hardliners' demand that Chen be pardoned. Of course he has political calculations. As long as he puts on a better show than Tsai Ing-wen, as long as he is more attentive, more aggressive, he will find it easier to win the hearts of Taiwan independence hardliners. He will find it easier to challenge Tsai Ing-wen. Ko Wen-je's political calculations are of secondary importance. What is truly worrisome is what Tsai Ing-wen and her administration have in mind for the nation's future. She will continue to be besieged by Taiwan independence hardliners and their allies. A fierce tug of war ensue over pragmatic concerns in cross-Strait policy, and touch upon sensitive constitutional issues. Will Tsai Ing-wen have the latitude and ability to deal with them?

Pardoning Chen Shui-bian is the Taiwan independence hardliners' first warning shot. Ma Ying-jeou may now laugh it off. But Tsai Ing-wen must give it serious consideration. This makes the provisional plenary session's resolution regarding "reform steadily" particularly meaningful.

聯合／赦扁：獨派給蔡英文的第一次警告
2016-04-11 01:56 聯合報 聯合報社論

民進黨周末召開臨全會，通過「謙卑執政，穩健改革」的宣言。表面上看，全黨為迎接即將來到的政權正歡欣鼓舞，團結氣氛濃厚；事實上，隨著政府權位分配的逐漸揭曉，派系間扞格不時浮出檯面。這兩天，獨派及高雄府會把特赦陳水扁的議題炒得火熱，其實就是在向蔡英文示以顏色。

儘管高雄市議會的赦扁提案是針對馬總統而來，但大家心裡其實有數：論時機、正當性和政治性，馬英九絕無可能在卸任前做出這種違背正義和民意的決定。因此，民進黨地方議會提出此議，其實是把期待折射向蔡英文，希望她就任總統大位後完成此事，還陳水扁自由，甚至幫他討回公道、還其清白；其目的，也是替綠營洗刷忍耐了八年的「冤氣」。

問題是，蔡英文的新政府方要邁出第一哩路，如果她鳴槍起跑的第一步，就是為貪腐惡行聲名遠播的陳水扁「平反」，讓他託病而無法審理的懸案全部「作廢」不審，甚至將其判決有罪案件全部推翻重審；如此一來，蔡英文要如何說服人民她有「點亮台灣」的力量？若如此輕易就凌駕國家法律，把正義出賣給前貪腐總統，她又將如何證明自己真的有「改革司法」之決心？

我們相信，蔡英文原先的執政起步規劃，並未將特赦陳水扁列入考慮，或者這至少絕不是她的優先選項。因為，如此一來，不僅將大大打亂她的施政步調，甚至可能使她迅即失去多數民眾的信任，徒增執政的阻障。然而，「赦扁」議題此刻提前爆出，而且是由台南、高雄議會正式決議的方式提出，黨內不少立委和大老又紛紛表態；在這樣的氛圍下，蔡英文恐怕很難不予回應或根本迴避面對。

深一層看，傳出特赦陳水扁的呼聲，其實也可以視為深綠獨派給蔡英文的第一次警示。大選期間，獨派陣營因對政黨輪替頗有期待，因而保持了超乎尋常的沉默，對蔡英文主張「維持現狀」的兩岸政策全然未予置評。如今蔡英文主政在即，不僅多次強調將依「中華民國憲政體制」推動兩岸，包括民進黨版的《兩岸協議監督條例》最近亦棄「兩國論」不提；對獨派而言，恐怕都難以繼續按捺，而不作任何表示。

先前獨派之所以隱忍不語，主要是希望先鞏固民進黨重返執政之橋；而如今既然綠營已經大權在握，他們當然希望聲索自己應該分得的那份獎賞。但等來等去，迄今新政府各項論功行賞的「好康」似乎都落在「英派」身上，其他派系所得有限，獨派更是苦候無著；在這種情況下，「赦扁」議題才會快速發酵。

赦扁議題由獨派團體發動，隨即在南部快速延燒；主要是議題簡單、具體、熟悉，易於操作。其一，只要稍稍轉個彎把箭頭佯裝成對準馬英九，即可收劍指蔡英文之效；其二，透過綠營地方民代、首長的喧騰，便可塑造千軍萬馬之姿，讓蔡英文必須直視。最耐人尋味的是，正處於聲望低潮的柯文哲，昨天無巧不巧地南下探扁，抓住熱潮當即上場軋一腳。柯文哲曾說，陳水扁如今已是個「廢人」；但是「廢物」之為用，柯文哲顯然深知其中巧妙。

柯文哲此刻跳出來回應獨派的赦扁呼聲，當然有他的政治盤算。至少，在這個節骨眼上，只要他表現得比蔡英文殷勤而積極，他就能擄獲獨派的心，就多了抗衡或挑戰蔡英文的資本。柯文哲的盤算倒在其次，我們真正關切的是，蔡英文和她的團隊在未來國家大局的開展上，勢必面對獨派及其盟友的不斷挑戰，包括在兩岸政策上的務實化與尖銳化的拉鋸，包括憲政議題將碰觸到多麼敏感的地帶，蔡英文有沒有足夠的能力和空間與之周旋。

特赦陳水扁，是獨派的第一聲警告式禮砲，馬英九大可一笑置之，蔡英文卻得認真慎思。也因此，臨全會宣示「穩健改革」，便顯得意味深長。