As Diaoyutai turns Red Hot, Japan turns Sickly Green

As Diaoyutai turns Red Hot, Japan turns Sickly Green
China Times editorial (Taipei, Taiwan, ROC)
A Translation
September 28, 2012

Summary: Mainland China has been sharpening its swords for the past decade. Now that they are sharp, it wants to test them out. This could happen soon. It could happen a few years down the line, It could even happen decades from now. But Mainland China will eventually want to change the Asia-Pacific strategic picture. It will insist on a position more consistent with its national strength. The world is not immutable. The Asia-Pacific situation will change. Japan and the United States must be psychologically prepared for this.

Full Text below:

The United Nations General Assembly convened this week. Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda exploited the occasion to claim that the Diaoyutai Islands belong to Japan. He hoped to secure the support of the international community. But Mainland China also expressed strong views on the matter. The foreign ministers of the two governments met and exchanged fire. The Diaoyutai Island conflict has now spread to United Nations. A Sino-Japanese conflict is brewing.

Noda admits he misjudged the situation concerning the Diaoyutai Islands "nationalization." He admits he did not realize the Chinese reaction would be so intense. That is why he sent a special envoy to Beijing. But Mainland China vehemently objects to Noda's "purchase" of the Diaoyutai Islands. Noda's "purchase" undermines a long held Sino-Japanese agreement not to change the status quo. Noda found himself in a dilemma. If he "buys" the islands, the consequences are serious. If he does not "buy" the islands, Tokyo Governor Shintaro Ishihara will demagogue the issue, If in the future more diplomatic disputes erupt, Noda will still be the one to face the consequences.

Noda appealed to the international community. But consider the matter closely. The United States has made clear that it takes no position on the sovereignty of the Diaoyutai Islands. It says it merely turned administrative authority of the islands over to Japan. The US says the Japan-US Security Treaty applies to the Diaoyutai Islands. In other words, even the United States, which is Japan's strongest supporter, does not agree that Japan has sovereignty over the Diaoyutai Islands. Other members of the international community are reluctant to become involved. Japan wants to pretend that Japan's alleged sovereignty over the Diaoyutai Islands is uncontested. It refuses to turn the matter over to the international court for arbitration. It has announced to the international community that it is digging in its heels. In fact, it is merely talking to itself. Needless to say this is hardly going to moderate Mainland China's fury.

The 29th of this month is the 40th anniversary of the establishment of Sino-Japanese diplomatic relations. But the Diaoyutai Islands conflict has intervened. The two sides were preparing to celebrate the occasion. The atmosphere between the two governments has changed all that. The Mainland side says the the celebrations have been cancelled. Will they resume any time soon? The Mainland side says they have been "postponed indefinitely." This means Sino-Japanese relations are now ice cold.

Storm clouds appear to be forming over the Diaoyutai Islands. Mainland Chinese fishery and ocean surveillance ships are everywhere. Japanese Coast Guard patrol boats shuttle back and forth. Warships from both sides are on alert. We will be lucky if a stray spark doesn't touch of a conflagration. Sino-Japanese relations have now come to this. If Japan expects Mainland China to celebrate the 40th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic ties, then it is too disingenuous for words.

In fact, the Diaoyutai Islands conflict is not confined to the ownership of a few uninhabited islands. Nor is it confined to the fact that international political factors make it impossible to develop the undersea oil resources. Rather, this is the focus of an historic blood feud and power struggle between major world powers. This is a long burning fuse that has finally reached the powderkeg.

After WWII the United States fostered the rapid re-emergence of Japan. To nations victimized by Japanese aggression, postwar Japan's meteoric rise was hardly consistent with justice. Japan caused the enormous loss of life. It invaded these countries. It slaughtered their citizens. It destroyed their families. The result of the Second World War was Japanese defeat and Chinese victory. But as both sides of the Taiwan Strait see it, the United States, a Western power, illegally and arbitrarily turned China's sovereign territory over to Japan, a former aggressor. In other words, the war may have ended. But Japan has yet to return territory belonging to another nation that Japan obtained through naked military aggression.

This territory may be small in size. But behind it are smoldering, unresolved historical grievances. These demons continue to haunt us. From one perspective, the war never really ended. The two sides of the Taiwan Strait continue to wage their Diaoyutai Islands Defense Movement campaigns. In fact what they are doing is attempting to end the conflict by resolving a lingering injustice inflicted upon China by Japan.

The Chinese mainland hopes to resolve this historical grievance with Japan. It hopes to put the Diaoyutai Islands dispute behind it. The United States has long dominated East Asia. It has long attempted to contain Mainland China. Mainland China is now striking back. 

First of all, the party that turned the Diaoyutai Islands over to the Japanese was the US. It was the instigator of the current troubles. The US now says it holds no position on the sovereignty of the Diaoyutai Islands. But the US-Japan Security Treaty refers to the Diaoyutai Islands as the "Senkaku Islands." This betrays an obvious bias in favor of Japan. The US is simply refusing to acknowledge responsibility for its original decision. Therefore Mainland China does not believe for one minute that the United States is either disinterested or neutral. Even if the United States wanted to mediate, it would not be trusted. If the Diaoyutai Islands conflict lacks a mediation mechanism, Mainland China and Japan will collide head-on.

Second, and more fundamentally, Mainland China will eventually want to overthrow the US containment strategy for Asia. The US has long attempted to contain Mainland China by encircling it with a second island chain. This chain includes South Korea, Japan, Taiwan, and the Philippines. But Mainland China is clearly on the rise. Its political, economic, and military strength continue to grow. It will not always be willing to be locked inside its own home by the United States. The Diaoyutai Islands conflict may enable Mainland China to break through the United States' East Asian containment chain. Absent this conflict, Mainland China would have a hard time finding a broken link in the chain, especially during peacetime. Japan caused the Diaoyutai Islands conflict to heat up. Ironically it brought the roof down on itself.

Mainland China has been sharpening its swords for the past decade. Now that they are sharp, it wants to test them out. This could happen soon. It could happen a few years down the line, It could even happen decades from now. But Mainland China will eventually want to change the Asia-Pacific strategic picture. It will insist on a position more consistent with its national strength. The world is not immutable. The Asia-Pacific situation will change. Japan and the United States must be psychologically prepared for this.

中時電子報 新聞
中國時報 　2012.09.28
社論－釣魚台紅了 日本人的臉就綠了
本報訊

    　聯合國大會本周登場，日本首相野田佳彥藉著這個場合宣揚釣魚台屬於日本，希望能爭取國際社會的支持，但中國大陸也強烈表達主張；兩國外長會晤相互駁火，釣魚台紛爭燒進聯合國，中日衝突持續發酵中。

    　野田雖然承認在處理釣魚台國有化一事上誤判形勢，沒料到中國反應如此激烈，因此派遣特使赴中溝通，但是，中國大陸強烈反對野田破壞日中「不改變釣魚台現狀」的長期共識，進行購島動作，但此事野田又已騎虎難下難有退路：買島，後果嚴重；不買，讓東京都知事石原慎太郎拿去玩，日後鬧出更多外交糾紛，野田還是要面對後果。

    　野田想訴諸國際社會，然而，仔細分析，美國都講明對釣魚台主權沒有意見，只是行政權屬日本，所以釣魚台也適用於《日美安保條約》，其實這番話的意思就是說，連最挺日本的美國，也不認同日本擁有釣魚台的主權，而其他國際社會的成員，則不太願意介入此事。日本不承認釣魚台主權有爭議，不肯交國際法庭仲裁，強力向國際社會宣傳的動作，其實只是自說自話而已，此舉當然完全不可能讓中國大陸的反應降溫。

    　廿九日是中日建交四十周年紀念日，但因為釣魚台問題，之前雙方籌備的多項慶祝活動，如今因為兩國氣氛丕變，中方已表示取消，是否及何時恢復，「無限推遲」；這意味著中日雙方目前的關係已冷到極點。

    　如今釣魚台周邊彷彿戰雲密布，漁船到處撒網捕魚，中方的漁政與海監船、日方的海上保安廳巡邏艇來回，雙方的軍艦臨近警戒，能夠不擦槍走火就已經謝天謝地了；關係僵到這個地步，日本如果還奢望中國熱絡歡慶建交四十周年，那也實在太少根筋了。

    　其實，釣魚台爭議的糾葛不只在於區區幾個無人島的領土所有權，也不只在礙於國際政治因素始終無法開發的海底石油資源，而在於這是一個歷史宿怨與強權角力的突破點，在長期醞釀後終於引爆。

    　日本戰後得到美國的扶植而迅速重新崛起，在昔日被侵略的國家看來，日本造成的生靈塗炭與國破家亡，與戰後日本平步青雲的際遇，是不符合正義比例的。二次大戰的結果雖然是日敗中勝，但在兩岸的認定裡，釣魚台卻是美國（西方列強）將中國的土地不合法不正當地擅自交給日本（昔日侵略者）。也就是說，戰爭雖然結束，日本侵略別國領土的債還欠著一筆沒還。

    　這筆債，帳面上的面積也許不大，背後卻鬱積著未解的歷史宿怨，仇恨的幽靈盤據其上，從某種角度看，戰爭其實並沒有真正結束。兩岸持續進行的保釣運動，其實是要把最後一場仗打完，了斷和日本未完的恩怨。

    　而除了與日本的歷史宿怨之外，釣魚台爭議的背後，也是中國大陸對美國長期主宰東亞並圍堵中國的反擊。

    　首先，把釣魚台交給日本的是美國人，算來是紛擾的始作俑者。如今美國只能說對釣魚台的主權問題不持任何立場，但在「尖閣諸島」用詞及《美日安保條約》適用範圍上態度偏向日本，其實也是在對自己當初的決策嘴硬。問題是，也因為如此，中國根本認為美國的立場不超然不中立，如今美國即使想調停，也不會得到信任。而釣魚台爭議若沒有一個可以調停的機制，中日便會一直硬碰硬。

    　其次，更根本的，是中國終究會要推翻美國設計的亞洲權力生態。美國過去從南韓、日本、台灣、菲律賓拉出第二島鏈來圍堵中國，但中國崛起已是明顯之勢，以其不斷增長的政經軍事實力，不會永遠願意在自己家門口被美國鎖死。釣魚台就是一個挑戰美國東亞布局的突破點，要不是有這個爭議，承平時期，中國還真不容易找到其他施力點。日本把釣魚台爭議炒大，反而給自己惹來天大的麻煩。

    　中國十年磨一劍，磨好了，終究要出來試鋒的。時間也許快，也許再等幾年，或者十幾年過後，但中國大陸總是會想改變亞太權力生態，給自己掙一個比較符合自己國力的位置。世事不會一成不變，亞太局勢會變，日、美都應該要有心理準備。