End of Jasmine Revolution, Beginning of Social Conflict

End of Jasmine Revolution, Beginning of Social Conflict
United Daily News editorial (Taipei, Taiwan, Republic of China)
A Translation
August 17, 2013

Summary: Some on Taiwan are comparing the White Shirt protests on Ketegelan Boulevard to Egypt's Jasmine Revolution. But the Jasmine Revolution is already ebbing. The military has ousted President Mohamed Mursi. The Jasmine Revolution has crumbled. The interim government's expulsion of Mursi supporters yesterday led to violent clashes and numerous casualties. The Jasmine Revolution left us with beautiful memories of peace. But it has now drawn to a close.

Full text below:

Some on Taiwan are comparing the White Shirt protests on Ketegelan Boulevard to Egypt's Jasmine Revolution. But the Jasmine Revolution is already ebbing. The military has ousted President Mohamed Mursi. The Jasmine Revolution has crumbled. The interim government's expulsion of Mursi supporters yesterday led to violent clashes and numerous casualties. The Jasmine Revolution left us with beautiful memories of peace. But it has now drawn to a close.

The recent wave of police evictions led to the death of hundreds. The Muslim Brotherhood has joined other groups opposed to the coup. It has launched an "Angry Friday" protest march, and will engage in more large-scale counterattacks. Muslims have also attacked and set fire to over 20 Christian churches throughout Egypt. As we can see, the crackdown is out of control. Egyptian society faces long-term confrontation and polarization. This is the most worrisome development of all.

The Jasmine Revolution overthrew the Mubarak regime. Egyptian politics then underwent two consecutive changes, both for the worse. The first was the election of President Mursi, who failed to live up to the public trust. Under his regime, Islam rapidly expanded its power. It forced through many policies that frightened secular society. Democracy regressed. The economy suffered. The second was the sudden interference of the Egyptian military in domestic affairs. It forcibly ousted Mursi. It used false pretexts to win democratic elections, undermining the legitimacy of the interim government. This is why Mursi supporters persist in their protests.

Scanning the faces of the crowd enables one to better understand Egypt's problem. The Jasmine Revolution was waged by relatively young, westernized men and women, fluent in English, accustomed to the Internet and mobile phones. Pro-Islam protesters are largely middle-aged men and women wearing  traditional Muslim headwear.

This is not deliberate stereotyping. This is one country in which two different peoples coexist. Their living conditions are different. Their thoughts and concerns are also different. The Western media will undoubtedly pay much more attention to the former. The international community will undoubtedly offer it much more sympathy and support. The latter will receive much less international attention. But they vastly outnumber the former. They are Mursi's main support. Lest we forget, these two peoples are all Egyptians. They all want their nation to move forward. They all want international respect. More importantly, no matter who subjects them to repression, they all bleed the same blood.

During the Jasmine Revolution, the internal contradictions were not so obvious. People were unanimous in pointing the finger at the authoritarian Mubarak. But once the Jasmine Revolution succeeded, decades of expectations for democracy were crushed. All they received was Mursi's arbitrary rule and economic decline. The elites who instigated the Jasmine Revolution naturally concluded that Mursi hijacked their revolution. Similarly, when the military forcibly ousted Mursi, the Muslim Brotherhood felt equally indignant. As they saw it, the Egyptian military hijacked democratic elections. Overnight, two consecutive waves of unrest split Egypt along religious and class lines, leading to political enmity, bloody repression, and unending hatred.

Egypt's Jasmine Revolution was universally lauded as a movement of public awakening, as a refreshing example of peaceful, rational, and successful protest. Who knew that two short years later, the situation would lead into nationwide unrest, public suffering, and social enmity, to the point where people have thrown up their hands in disgust. To overthrow a tyrant or two is not difficult. The true challenge is to create a long-lasting democracy that protects all its citizens. As the example of Mursi shows, it is easy for those who have tasted power to be carried away. It is easy for them to ignore the religious beliefs and values of those who differ. The military failed to give Mursi a chance to do better before it forced his ouster. It vigorously suppressed the Muslim Brotherhood. This too guaranteed that the country would descend into chaos. The masses on both sides blindly clashed, without regard for right and wrong, increasing antagonism and hatred.

Egypt's interim government has declared a one-month state of emergency. It has effectively returned to Mubarak era military rule. Such changes make those who cheered the Jasmine Revolution want to hide their faces. This paradoxes and institutional complexities of democracy demand closer examination. Mass movements can tear down powerful regimes. But they can also disrupt social order. Democratic elections can reflect public opinion. But they can also elect anti-democratic strongmen. A military coup can control abuse of power by a president. But it can also irreparably divide a society. Military repression can clear the streets of mobs. But it can also drive people to engage in street battles and resort to terrorist activities.

Without self-restraint, humility, and patience, one cannot establish a truly democratic society. This is what we have learned from Egypt's Jasmine Revolution.

茉莉花革命凋零且質變為社會衝突
【聯合報╱社論】
2013.08.17 02:47 am

正當台灣有人把凱道「白衫軍」和埃及的「茉莉花革命」相提並論，茉莉花革命其實已經凋萎了。在軍方罷黜穆希總統時，茉莉花即已告摧折；而日昨臨時政府下令驅逐擁穆希的群眾引發激烈死傷衝突，茉莉花革命留下的和平與美好記憶，至此盡付東流。

這波軍警驅離行動造成數百人的死亡後，「穆斯林兄弟會」已聯合各個「反政變」團體，發起「憤怒星期五」的大遊行，將進行更大規模的反擊。與此同時，埃及各地發生了穆斯林攻擊廿多座基督教堂並縱火的事件。由此看來，鎮壓行動失控，將使埃及社會陷入長期分裂與兩極對峙，這才是最值得擔憂的事。

在茉莉花革命推翻穆巴拉克政權後，埃及政治發生了兩次「劣化的質變」。第一次，是民選的穆希總統未能珍惜人民的託付，他在政府中大肆擴張穆斯林勢力，強行推動讓國內世俗派心寒和恐慌的政策，導致民主倒退、經濟走樣；第二次，是埃及軍方驟然干政，強行罷黜穆希，假民意之名奪取民主選舉的果實，使得臨時政府的正當性備受挑戰。這正是「擁穆希」群眾不斷抗爭的理由。

以群眾的臉孔作為對照，大家也許更容易理解埃及今天的問題。我們在茉莉花革命中看到的，是一批相對年輕、西化、熱情、英語流利、使用網路和手機的男女；我們在「擁穆」示威中看到的，則是更多中年以上、傳統、憤怒、戴著回帽或頭巾的群眾。

這並非要故意將群眾分類或刻板印象化，但是，這就是同一個國家裡並存的兩種不同人民，他們的生活處境不同，他們的思維和關注也大不相同。在西方媒體鏡頭前，前者無疑享有更多國際社會的注目、同情與支持；後者的國際曝光度比較小，但他們在人數上卻占有絕對優勢，也是支持穆希的主力。但別忘了，這兩類人都是埃及人民，他們都渴望國家進步，渴望自己受到尊重；更重要的是，他們不論受到誰的鎮壓，流出的血都是一樣鮮紅。

在茉莉花革命期間，這樣的內部矛盾其實並不明顯，人民的箭頭都一致指向專制的穆巴拉克。但在茉莉花革命後，當數十年的民主期待，卻只換來穆希的專橫統治及經濟萎縮，掀起茉莉花革命的菁英民眾自然認為穆希豪奪了他們的革命果實。同樣的，當軍方密謀強行罷黜穆希後，穆斯林的兄弟姐妺們當然也義憤難填，認為軍方強姦了埃及的民主選舉。經過這兩次的動盪，埃及社會的宗教和階級差異一夕裂為斷層，演成政治的敵我對陣；再加上鎮壓的血腥仇恨，就更沒完沒了。

埃及的茉莉花革命，原是舉世稱揚的一場人民自覺運動，創造了清新、和平、理性抗爭而獲得勝利的先例；誰知，不過短短兩年，情勢卻演變成今天舉國動盪、人民煎熬、社會仇殺的地步，委實讓人唏噓。由此可見，要推翻一個或兩個暴君並不困難，真正艱難的是，要如何建立一套可長可久的民主制度，讓所有的國民都能受到它的保障。從穆希的例子看，大權在握的人很容易得意忘形，忘了要尊重那些宗教信仰及價值觀和自己不同的人；對軍方而言，未給穆希改善的機會即將他罷黜，並大肆打壓穆兄會，也注定國家要陷入混亂和失序狀態；對雙方群眾而言，一味爭論已經沒有黑白可言的是非，也只會增加對立和仇恨的情緒。

目前的埃及，在臨時政府宣布進入一個月的「緊急狀態」後，等於已回到一個如同穆巴拉克時代的軍事統治。對所有曾為茉莉花革命而歡呼過的人而言，面對這樣的變化，除了掩面而嘆，恐怕也必須對民主的吊詭、複雜與制度性之必要多作思考。群眾運動能推倒強權，也能破壞社會秩序；民主選舉能反映民意，也能選出反民主的強人；軍事政變能節制濫權總統，卻也能把社會帶向無法挽回的撕裂；軍事鎮壓可以驅走街頭群眾，卻可能把民眾推入巷戰衝突及恐怖活動。

沒有自我節制，沒有謙卑忍讓，不可能產生真正的民主社會。這是我們看埃及茉莉花革命的枯萎應該學到的一課。