Three Suns: The DPP's Twisted Triangle

Three Suns: The DPP's Twisted Triangle
United Daily News editorial (Taipei, Taiwan, Republic of China)
A Translation
August 16, 2013

Summary: Chen Shui-bian has rejoined the DPP. Together with Su Tseng-chang and Tsai Ing-wen, the three have created a "three suns" configuration. Three suns, all scrambling to fulfill their destinies. All competing to eclipse the other two. This wonder of political astronomy play itself out, right up to 2016 and beyond.

Full text below:

Chen Shui-bian has rejoined the DPP. Together with Su Tseng-chang and Tsai Ing-wen, the three have created a "three suns" configuration.

On May 28, this newspaper published an editorial entitled "Twisted Triangle: Chen Shui-bian, Su Tseng-chang, and Tsai Ing-wen." We wrote, "After the current All Peoples Conference, the path to power within the DPP will largely depend on triangular relationship between Chen Shui-bian, Su Tseng-chang and Tsai Ing-wen. . Developments indicate that this is a changeable scalene triangle. It might be termed a twisted triangle." Today, that twisted triangle has become a reality.

This "three suns" or "twisted triangle" works like the twin tracks of a railroad track. One track represents an ongoing struggle between the Taiwan independence, one nation on each side faction and the reform faction. The other track represents the ongoing struggle between Su Tseng-chang and Tsai Ing-wen fighting over the 2016 presidential election. Su is clearly more Taiwan independence oriented. Tsai is more reform oriented. Therefore the two parallel tracks may well cross and lead to a collision.

First take the ongoing struggle between the Taiwan independence, one nation on each side faction and the reform faction. Chen Shui-bian will most assuredly spin his return to the party as "vindication," as proof that he was "a victim of political and judicial persecution." Therefore Chen Shui-bian's readmission to the DPP cannot be interpreted as "medical parole." His ultimate goal is to redefine his place in history. As Annette Lu noted, Ah-Bian is not seeking "better treatment as a criminal." He is seeking to rebuild his political power base.

Chen's approach is to trade his personal support for Taiwan independence for Taiwan independence support for his greed and corruption. If Chen Shui-bian fails to support Taiwan independence, political support for his greed and corruption will vanish. Chen's greed and corruption is more than a moral or PR matter for the DPP. His greed and corruption means life or death for the DPP. Chen has returned to the party. He will now be the DPP's "Taiwan independence sun." The stars in the DPP constellation are subject to the effects of gravity. The Taiwan independence tail wags the DPP dog. Now that Chen Shui-bian has returned to the party, that is even more assured.

When the DPP party membership review team procrastinated, Chen Shui-bian sent a message to Su Tseng-chang, If the review team's answer was no, Chen would withdraw his supporters from the DPP and form a rival political party. It would become a "party outside the party." Now that Chen Shui-bian has returned to the DPP, he has essentially formed a "party inside the party." If he had formed a "party outside the party," the DPP might have been able to reform itself. But now that Chen has formed a "party inside the party," reform is essentially hopeless, and the party's chances for survival are slim.

Chen Shui-bian has rejoined the DPP, The probability that the DPP will reform itself has plummeted. If Chen's return leads to a schism within the party, the DPP will find it difficult to regain public trust. This will reduce the likelihood of the DPP winning the 2016 general election. Let us take a step back. Suppose the DPP wins the 2016 general election. The president will be the DPP candidate, either Su Tseng-chang or Tsai Ing-wen. The conclusion will be that the party has been vindicated. The pressure to pardon an "innocent" Chen Shui-bian will be even greater. But if the ruling DPP pardons an unrepentant, greedy, corrupt, obdurately pro-Taiwan independence Chen Shui-bian, the nation will know no peace. It will plunge into turmoil, politically and economically. Conversely, if a DPP president fails to pardon Chen Shui-bian, who will be able to prevent Chen Shui-bian from making a comeback? Perhaps this is what observers are referring to as "long term pain."

Now take the ongoing struggle between Su Tseng-chang and Tsai Ing-wen over the 2016 general election. Chen Shui-bian has rejoined to the party. Su Tseng-chang supported him. Tsai Ing-wen harbored reservations. From the beginning, Su Tseng-chang spun the Chen corruption case as "political persecution." He advocated an All Peoples Conference "referendum." He wanted the party to welcome Chen back into the party with open arms. During the application process he insisted that "Everything will be by the book." He called for "a little more humanity, and a little less calculation." This shows that Su was an enabler in this case, perhaps even the instigator. Su Tseng-chang is the DPP party chairman. Is he thinking of 2016? Is he afraid of offending Taiwan independence elements? If so, he has only one choice -- welcome Ah-Bian back into the party. But Su Tseng-chang's move has sharpened the battle lines between himself and Tsai Ing-wen in 2016.

Tsai Ing-wen has reservations about Chen Shui-bian returning to the party. She said, "I hope he (Chen) makes more of an effort, so that the public will accept him and sympathize with him." Her implication? Most of the public has not accepted Chen Shui-bian, and not sympathized with Chen Shui-bian. She even said, "The DPP's basic values of clean government and concern for right and wrong must not be muddied." She clearly wanted Chen supporters within the party to leave well enough alone. But events have gone against her. Chen is now back in the party, and is trumpeting his lifelong devotion to the party.

The DPP is advancing towards 2016. The Taiwan independence, one nation on each side faction is engaged in an ongoing struggle with the reform faction. Su and Tsai are engaged in an ongoing struggle over the 2016 general election. Two parallel tracks may well cross and lead to a collision. It all depends on changes in the "three suns" configuration. Chen's sun is the smallest. But its gravitational field remains strong. Its field is also the most destructive. Su's sun is not attempting to outshine Tsai's sun. It is merely attempting to eclipse Tsai's sun. It may play the role of spoiler. If Tsai's sun wants to shine, it must free itself from the gravitational field of Chen's sun and Su's sun. If Chen's sun and Su's sun eclipse Tsai's sun, if the DPP becomes a political prisoner to Taiwan independence forces, the party's future will be dim. Therefore the DPP party chairmanship election in May of next year may well change the "three suns configuration."

Three suns, all scrambling to fulfill their destinies. All competing to eclipse the other two. This wonder of political astronomy play itself out, right up to 2016 and beyond.
  
三個太陽：民進黨歪三角正式啟動
【聯合報╱社論】
2013.08.16 02:58 am

陳水扁重回民進黨，與蘇貞昌、蔡英文形成了「三個太陽」的態勢。

五月二十八日，本報社論〈歪三角：陳水扁、蘇貞昌、蔡英文〉指出：「經此次全代會，民進黨內部的權力與路線鬥爭，相當大部分將取決於陳水扁、蘇貞昌與蔡英文的三角關係。事態顯示，這是一個變動不居的不等邊三角形，可稱歪三角。」如今，這個歪三角正式啟動了。

這「三個太陽」或「歪三角」，將在猶如火車的雙軌上運動：一側軌道是台獨一邊一國派與轉型派的角力，另一側軌道則是蘇貞昌與蔡英文為二○一六年大選的角力。由於蘇顯然較傾獨派，而蔡則可能較主轉型；因此，兩軌並行，卻又相互尬車，行車之安全堪虞。

先說獨派一邊一國與轉型派的角力。陳水扁將返黨定位為「對於政治及司法迫害的實質平反」；因此，不能將陳水扁的胃口看成只想要「保外就醫」，他的最終目標是重建其歷史定位。呂秀蓮即指出：扁要的不只是「受刑人處遇的問題」，而在「重建政治勢力」。

陳水扁的手法是：「我挺獨」，來換取「獨挺貪」。因為，陳水扁若不「挺獨」，「挺貪」的政治動能即失依托。其實，「挺貪」尚只是民進黨的道德風評問題而已，「挺獨」則是民進黨一決生死的路線之爭。如今，陳水扁返黨，將成民進黨內的「台獨太陽」，民進黨天空裡的星宿星辰皆將受其引力之影響。獨派在黨內尾巴搖狗的地位，在陳水扁返黨後將更形確立。

當民進黨「入黨複審小組」拖延進度時，陳水扁傳話給蘇貞昌，謂若無善了，將拉隊出走，另組新黨，是為「黨外之黨」；如今陳水扁回黨，卻不啻形成了「黨中之黨」。但若是「黨外之黨」，民進黨尚有轉型的生路；如今卻面對「黨中之黨」，若是轉型無望，恐就生機渺茫了。

陳水扁回黨，將使民進黨轉型的可能性劇降；倘因此而造成民進黨內部撕裂、社會信任難以重建，則將使民進黨二○一六年勝選的機率降低。退一步說，假設民進黨贏了二○一六大選，屆時民進黨籍的總統（蘇貞昌或蔡英文）更無理由不對「在黨內已經平反」的清白黨員陳水扁特赦。但若竟然特赦了既貪又獨、始終不認錯道歉的陳水扁，其政經治理恐就再無寧日了；但反過來說，若屆時仍不特赦陳水扁，誰又能擋得住陳水扁的反撲？這也許就是輿論所說的「長痛」。

再談蘇貞昌與蔡英文二○一六大選的角力。在陳水扁回黨一事上，蘇貞昌是支持派，蔡英文的態度則較有保留。蘇貞昌一開始即將扁案定位為「政治迫害」，並贊成在全代會「公決」此案，等於是要舉黨歡迎陳水扁回黨；又在「申請案」進行中表示，「一切按程序規定處理」，再稱「多一點人性，少一點算計」。凡此，在在顯示，蘇是此案的護航者，甚至是主導者。其實，蘇貞昌站在黨主席的立場，若心繫二○一六，又不想亦不敢開罪獨派，他也只有迎扁回黨的唯一選擇。然而，蘇貞昌的這個動作，使他與蔡英文在二○一六的角力形成更明銳的區隔。

蔡英文對陳水扁返黨較有保留。她說：「希望他（陳水扁）要多作努力，讓社會接受他、同情他。」此話可能是指，社會多數尚未接受陳水扁，也不同情陳水扁。她更說：「民進黨清廉的基本價值及是非判斷不要被模糊掉。」此話更儼然是要黨內的挺扁操作適可而止。然而，事與蔡英文之願違，陳水扁如今回黨了，並宣稱將永遠做黨的義工。

於是，民進黨通向二○一六的軌道，即是「台獨一邊一國派及轉型派的角力」，與「蘇蔡二○一六年大選的角力」，兩軌並行，卻又相互尬車的態勢，一切將取決於「三個太陽」的變動關係。其中，陳太陽的體積較小，但引力最強，亦最具負作用與破壞力；蘇太陽的第一目標已非超越蔡太陽，而只在欲圖遮蔽蔡太陽，因而可能淪為「成事不足，敗事有餘」的角色；蔡太陽若想出頭天，則必須掙脫陳太陽及蘇太陽的引力，倘若最後仍被扁蘇兩顆太陽遮成蔡日蝕，或淪為獨派的政治俘虜，那也就難有前景可期了。於是，明年五月的黨主席選舉，遂成可能改變「三個太陽架構」的時點。

三個太陽，爭逐天命，競相製造相互的日蝕；這個政治天文奇觀，將一直演到二○一六年及以後。