Red Shirts and White Shirts

Red Shirts and White Shirts
China Times editorial (Taipei, Taiwan, Republic of China)
A Translation
August 5, 2013

Summary: The Ma administration must engage in soul-searching. It must address the public discontent it has provoked over the past five years through its unpopular policies. The Ma administration must think about winning peoples' hearts and minds, and not just implementing reform. It does not even know who the White Shirt protestors are. Unless it catches on, more and more White Shirts will take to the streets, with increasing frequency.

Full text below:

In August 2006, corruption by President Chen Shui-bian and his family inspired former DPP Chairman Shih Ming-teh to launch his "Million Man Movement to depose Ah-Bian." Beginning on September 9th, street protests raged for a full month. On October 10, Republic of China National Day, Shih launched his "Siege of All Under Heaven." On that day, an estimated 1.5 million people surrounded the presidential palace.

Less than 7 years later, 250,000 people have taken to the streets. This time however, the object of their protest, was Ma Ying-jeou, long time champion of political reform and clean government. Ma Ying-jeou is a "boy scout." He is a stickler about the law, without even a whiff of corruption. Why has his honeymoon period been shorter than Chen Shui-bian, who was guilty of unbridled corruption?

Behind the Red Shirts political protests were long-accumulated grievances against the DPP and Chen Shui-bian. As a result, the movement received over one million NT in contributions within 10 days. It also had the participation of well-known political, cultural, social movement, and community leaders. They underscored the legitimacy of the movement and broadened its appeal. The political parties participated from behind the scenes. The media added fuel to the fire. The result was a sweeping social movement.

Last Saturday's White Shirts protest march received substantial media coverage. But otherwise it lacked the conditions that made the Red Shirts movement a success. Its leaders were 39 individuals from different walks of life. Many were novices who never participated in a social protest movement before. Yet in a mere 20 days, they persuaded tens of thousands of people to take to the streets, not once, but twice, surprising everyone.

Hung Chung-chiu died just over one month ago. One month ago, no one imagined a lowly corporal's death would inspire a quarter of a million people to take to the streets. Even on the eve of the protest, no ruling or opposition party politician imagined that online publicity could result in such a strong showing.

The pundits failed to predict and could not explain this phenomenon. Many of them concluded that an Internet generation "new citizens' movement" had taken shape. But that is an oversimplification. Does it really hold water? That remains open to question. The simplest answer is, suppose it had been a different social issue, and a different target of protest?  Suppose today the president was Chen Shui-bian or Tsai Ing-wen? Would the same approach have yielded the same results?

A quarter of a million White Shirts took to the streets. The participants looked younger than those who participated in the earlier protest in front of the Ministry of National Defense. Some were parents who brought along their daughters, who are exempt from military duty. Some were young men, who were exempt because Ma Ying-jeou abolished the draft and implemented a volunteer military. Some were protesting the "Tai Po Incident." Some were concerned about the Number Four Nuclear Power Plant. Some objected to TISA. Some were angry about 12 year compulsory education. After the protest march ended, those who demolished the Legislative Yuan wall were none other than Tsai Ting-kui and his supporters, who insist that "Ah-Bian is not guilty."

Hung Chung-chiu's death is unfortunate and infuriating. Over the past month, the military has been arrogant and indifferent. It has trotted out bizarre excuses that have only added fuel to the fire and made people angrier than they were before. Nevertheless, most people do no think the military harbors an criminal cabal that planned the murder of Hung Chung-chiu. Therefore the focus of the protests will remain "We want the Truth!"

The Hung Chung-chiu case is like a dam that has developed cracks. Long term discontent with the Ma administration has reached the boiling point. It has spilled out because of these cracks in the dam. The Hung Chung-chiu incident was the public's cue to lam into the Ma administration.

Even absent Ma Ying-jeou's verbal faux pas yesterday, the military is not the only source of public dissatisfaction. The military can be reformed. The Ma administration must solve these problems one by one. It must address these many and varied grievances. It must relieve the pressure. Otherwise the White Shirts are likely to return. Their numbers may increase. Their stay may increase as well.

Ma Ying-jeou is already a lame duck. Society as a whole remains awash in dissatisfaction over Ma. It has become a pressure cooker. Any reform that harms anyone's interests, will add fuel to the fire and result in an explosion. When Premier Chiang took office he championed a referendum on the Number Four Nuclear Power Plant. Ma Ying-jeou has never given up on pension reform. Now both appear to be "Mission Impossible." Even TISA, which does Taiwan far more good than harm, may encounter difficulty.

The only reform Ma can promote now is self-reform. He can reform the KMT. He can reform the Ma administration. But he can no longer do so on a piecemeal basis. He can no longer assume that tinkering at the margins, and that reforming the military can quell discontent, and allow him to squeak by.

The Ma administration must engage in soul-searching. It must address the public discontent it has provoked over the past five years through its unpopular policies. Only then can it escape reproach. Only then can it avoid a "damned if you do and damned if you don't" situation and survive for the next three years. The Ma administration must think about winning peoples' hearts and minds, and not just implementing reform. It does not even know who the White Shirt protestors are. Unless it catches on, more and more White Shirts will take to the streets, with increasing frequency.

中時電子報 新聞
中國時報 　2013.08.05
社論－紅衫軍與白衫軍
本報訊

    　2006年8月，因為前總統陳水扁家族涉及多項貪瀆案，前民進黨主席施明德發起了「百萬人民倒扁運動」，從9月9日起開始了連續一個多月的街頭抗爭，並於10月10日國慶日發動「天下圍攻」，當天號稱有150萬民眾包圍總統府。

    　事隔不到7年，25萬民眾再度上街，抗議的對象卻是一向高舉改革、標榜清廉的馬英九。是什麼樣的原因，會讓一個強調守法、不貪不取的「好學生」馬英九，「賞味期限」居然比貪腐的陳水扁更短？

    　「紅衫軍」旋風的背後，有民進黨和阿扁長期累積的民怨，才能在10天內匯集了100多萬人的捐款。又有知名政治、文化、社運界人士的參與，提高了整個運動的正當性和擴散能量，加上政黨的幕後參與、媒體的推波助瀾，才能成為一股席捲社會的風潮。

    　但上周六的「白衫軍」，除了媒體的大幅報導之外，幾乎卻不具備其他任何一項「紅衫軍」成功的條件。39個來自各行各業的人，其中不少還是社運新手，從來沒有參與過社會運動，卻在短短20幾天內，兩度號召數萬人走上街頭，跌破各界的眼鏡。

    　洪仲丘過世剛滿一個月。一個月前，沒有人會想到，一個下士之死，居然能延燒一個月、引起25萬人上街。即便在上街的前一天，也沒有任何朝野政治人物預想到，單靠網路的宣傳，居然能出現這樣的場面。

    　因為無法預料、無法解釋這種現象，事後很多評論就直接認定是網路世代的「新公民運動」已經成形。但這樣過度簡化的結論，能否真的成立，恐怕還有待商榷。最簡單的問題就是，如果換了另外一個社會議題、另外一個抗議對象，如果今天的總統是陳水扁、蔡英文，同樣的運作方式，還會不會有同樣的結果？

    　25萬「白衫軍」上街，參與民眾的面孔，比第一次在國防部抗議的成員更年輕。有的父母，帶著不用當兵的女兒一起來，有的是因為馬英九改募兵制「德政」而不用當兵的男孩；台下有的談的是「大埔事件」、有的關心的是核四、有的是反《服貿》、有的恨的是「十二年國教」；遊行結束後，拆立法院圍牆的，是蔡丁貴和認為「阿扁無罪」的民眾。

    　洪仲丘的死，令人遺憾、憤怒。尤其軍方過去一個月來的表現，傲慢、敷衍的態度，各種光怪陸離的說辭，更無異是提油救火，讓民眾的怒火越燒越旺。縱然如此，大概多數民眾至今並不認為，軍中真有一個犯罪集團，是有計畫、有組織的，要致洪仲丘於死，所以活動的主軸才會定位為「要真相」。

    　洪仲丘事件像是水庫上的一道裂縫，所有長期以來對馬政府不滿，都早已累積到臨界點，只是因為這道裂縫的出現而潰堤而已。民眾藉著洪仲丘事件，發出各種對馬政府不滿的怒吼。

    　事件演變至今，即便沒有馬英九昨天的失言，民怨也不是單靠整頓軍方、改革軍檢就可以解決的。如果馬政府沒有辦法一一梳理、化解各種不同的民怨，讓壓力適當的宣洩，下次的任何一個事件，都可能重演「白衫軍」的場景，甚至人數還可能更多、時間還可能更長。

    　馬英九其實已經跛腳了。當整個社會充斥對馬政府不滿的氛圍，變成一個壓力鍋的同時，任何的改革、傷害任何人的權益，都形同是在鍋底增添柴火，隨時有爆炸的可能。江揆上任推出的核四公投、馬英九念茲在茲的年金改革，如今幾乎都已經是不可能的任務；即便是看來對台灣利大於弊的《服貿協議》，要過關都有相當的難度。

    　馬英九現在唯一可以做的改革，就是改革自己、改革國民黨、改革馬團隊。不能再以頭痛醫頭、腳痛醫腳的方式，以為只要修理、改革軍方，就能夠平息民怨，安然度過。

    　馬政府應該要重新檢視、處理過去五年所有引起民怨、不得民心的施政，才有可能擺脫目前這種動輒得咎、父子騎驢的窘境，比較平順的度過未來的三年。如果心中還是只有「改革」、沒有人民，甚至不知道面前的民眾是「哪位」？「白衫軍」上街的場景，恐怕只會越來越頻繁、人數越來越多。