Convene an Economic Affairs Conference -- Now!

Convene an Economic Affairs Conference -- Now!
China Times editorial (Taipei, Taiwan, Republic of China)
A Translation
November 21, 2013

Summary: Taiwan's economy will have difficulty growing by 2%. Once shining high-tech industries such as AU Optronics and Acer are struggling to survive. Industry elder Morris Chang has butted heads with the Central Bank over exchange rates. The Cross-Strait Agreement on Trade in Services is highly favorable to domestic and foreign investment. But the DPP and TSU have obstructed its passage, and stalled it in the Legislative Yuan.

Full text below:

Taiwan's economy will have difficulty growing by 2%. Once shining high-tech industries such as AU Optronics and Acer are struggling to survive. Industry elder Morris Chang has butted heads with the Central Bank over exchange rates. The Cross-Strait Agreement on Trade in Services is highly favorable to domestic and foreign investment. But the DPP and TSU have obstructed its passage, and stalled it in the Legislative Yuan. The CEPD has proposed a Free Trade Zone Pilot Program. But other agencies refuse to accept it. Premier Chiang Yi-hua's decision has been given zero scrutiny.

Everyone knows the economy is in trouble. But the ruling and opposition parties, businesses, and even administration officials continue to go their own way. They work against each other. They cannot get any traction. Eventually businesses and the public will lose confidence in the future. The situation is already critical. We urge the Executive Yuan and Legislative Yuan to convene an Economic Affairs Conference as soon as possible. Further footdragging amidst the economic rise of the Mainland will reduce Taiwan to a lonely isle.

The STA and Free Trade Zone Pilot Program were part of President Ma's "Golden Decade" platform, advanced years ago during his re-election campaign. It is an important step that will bring the outside world to Taiwan. It can accelerate the flow of goods, people, and capital. It can pave the way for membership in the Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement (TPP).

President Ma was re-elected. He placed Minister of Economic Affairs Yin Chi-ming in charge of Free Trade Zone Pilot Program planning. But Yin could not complete the project during his term. On February 18, current chairman Kuan Chung-min dropped a bombshell. He said the Free Trade Zone Pilot Program was too complex. He said it must be scaled down to accelerate implementation. Chairman Kuan said that new plans would be sent to the Executive Yuan within one to four months. Some portions do not require amending the law. These can be completed immediately. Other portions require amending the law. They can be developed in tandem with a draft law. But the Executive Yuan was tardy. It approved Stage One of the Free Trade Zone Pilot Program on August 8. It announced that 12 administrative regulations could not be updated before the end of September this year. It once again failed to meet the deadline.

In March of this year, Premier Chiang Yi-hua presided over a political affairs conference. He listened to CEPD reports on the Free Trade Zone Pilot Program. He instructed the various ministries and departments to develop concrete plans, and implement services on schedule. Free Trade Zone Pilot Program special regulations were submitted to the Executive Yuan for approval in mid-October. Deputy Premier Mao Chi-kuo and Political Affairs Committee Member Hsueh Chin reviewed them. But recently rumors emerged that the Science Council and the Minister of Finance vehemently opposed the tax provisions This forced Premier Chiang to reconsider. This shows that the CEPD groundwork, communications, the Deputy Premier and Political Affairs Committee Member review, and Premier Chiang's instructions were all lies. This shows that the ministries and departments are self-interested and uncommunicative, and make it impossible for policies to emerge from the Executive Yuan.

Does the Free Trade Zone Pilot Program include the financial industry? The policy changes from day to day. People are left clueless. When Chairman Kuan first took office, he intentionally included the financial sector. Later he said the financial sector was not limited by geography, therefore would not be included. He said capital flows would not be included in the Free Trade Zone Pilot Program. But in July he once again told the Executive Yuan he would incorporate the financial industry into the Free Trade Zone Pilot program. The goal was to make financial products more diversified. Promoting financial sector wealth management businesses would enable Taiwan to become more prosperous. It would attract the necessary talent and capital. His words are still ringing in our ears. Controversy has recently arisen over how to open up markets for financial products. It shows that the CEPD, the Financial Supervisory Commission, and the Central Bank have trouble communicating. The FSC advocates continued opening of NTD-denominated commodities. The CEPD advocates more substantial opening and the wooing of wealth management businesses. But the Central Bank agrees only to further open OBU and OSU businesses, and those that do not involve the NTD. Blue Camp legislator Ting Shou-chung says the denominated currency should not be NTDs. Nor should it be linked to the NTD interest rate or exchange rate. Otherwise "People might as well buy from foreign countries."

CEO Peng and Chairman of the FSC Tseng Min-chung say they have no problems communicating. They say the NTD was open to foreign financial businesses long ago. They say it is an entirely different matter than the Free Trade Zone Pilot Program. The two want to reassure legislators by dispelling rumors of non-cooperation. But this does nothing to solve the practical problems. This is evident in the controversy within the Executive Yuan over financial industry liberalization within the Free Trade Zone.

Taiwan's financial product designs, exchange rates, and interest rates, should not be all of one piece. Recently Morris Chang used unusually harsh language while criticizing exchange rates. CEO Peng used Tsai Ming-Kai, Liu Ching-piao and motor scooter users as a shield. Central Bank decisions on exchange rates would not be challenged. But outsiders would see the Central Bank as overly defensive.

History is written by the victors. They are the heroes. Under President Ma's two terms, Taiwan's economy has finally grown and yielded results. Is the financial sector as a proportion of GDP up or down? Is the rise of the Mainland marginalizing Taiwan's economy, or providing it with new opportunities? These should be all be tallied up. Who is responsible can also be determined. Continuing down our current path is unlikely to breath new life into a stifled economy. In 2016 President Ma will turn over power to someone else. What will follow is difficult to imagine.

Instead of weeping over the state of the nation, why not seize the initiative? Convene an Economic Affairs Conference. Allow different voices to express themselves. After rigorous examination, let the truth to emerge. Seek consensus, then combine our efforts.

社論－立即召開經濟國是會議
稍後再讀
中國時報 本報訊 2013年11月21日 04:09

台灣經濟保二困難，曾經閃耀的高科技業如友達、宏碁等，相繼陷入掙扎求存的境地，產業界大老張忠謀也為匯率問題槓上央行。《兩岸服務貿易協議》大大有利台灣內外投資，卻因民進黨與台聯杯葛，在立法院遲遲不能通過生效。經建會提出自由經濟示範區的租稅藍圖，其他相關部會卻不肯接受，已被行政院長江宜樺決定歸零審視。

全民都知道國家經濟出了問題，但執政黨、在野黨、企業，甚至行政團隊內部卻依然各行其是，相互反對，不能產生力量。長此以往企業與民眾將對經濟前途漸失信心。情勢已甚危急，我們建議行政立法兩院應盡速召開經濟國是會議，再蹉跎下去，面對大陸經濟強勢崛起，台灣勢必淪為孤懸海角的孤島。

兩岸服貿協議及自由經濟示範區，是馬總統在競選連任前1年所提出的「黃金十年」願景，要讓世界走進台灣的重要步驟，藉此加速開放物流、人流、金流，並為加入「跨太平洋夥伴協議」（TPP）做準備。

馬總統在成功連任後，即委任當時經建會主委尹啟銘負責規畫示範區，但尹啟銘任內未竟全功。現任主委管中閔2月18日甫上任即放出震撼彈，表示自由經濟示範區規畫太過龐雜，將進行縮減調整，以加快推動速度。管主委強調1個月內將新規畫送行政院，最遲不超過4個月。不需修法的部分可以立刻進行；需修法部分同步研擬特別法草案。但行政院遲至8月8日才通過自經示範區第一階段推動計畫，當時也宣布今年9月底前可完成12項行政法規增修，但時程一再跳票。

其實行政院長江宜樺今年3月主持政務會談，就已經聽取經建會「自由經濟示範區規畫方案」的報告，並在會中指示各部會應依規畫方向研擬具體推動計畫，務期如期落實執行。然而自經示範區特別條例在10月中報送行政院核定，並歷經副閣揆毛治國、政務委員薛琦的審議。然而對於租稅部分，最近卻傳出國科會主委及財政部長大力反對，迫使江揆決定重新研議。顯示經建會之前的準備、溝通、副閣揆與政務委員的審查及江揆的指示都是假話。反映出部會本位主義的難以溝通，政策跨不出政院大門的窘境。

自經示範區是否納入金融業，也顯示政策變來變去，令人莫衷一是。管主委初上任有意納入金融業，但後來表示金融沒有區域概念，因此不納入，但金流不會在示範區缺席。可是7月又向行政院報告將金融業納入示範區範疇，目標是讓金融商品更為多元化，促進金融業的財富管理業務在台灣能有更好發展，吸引相關人才與資金。但言猶在耳，最近發生金融商品如何開放的爭議，就證明經建會與金管會、央行的溝通更出了問題。金管會提出報告主張持續開放新台幣計價商品，經建會主張更大幅度開放，爭取財富管理業務。但央行只同意研擬擴大開放OBU與OSU業務，以不涉及新台幣為核心原則。藍營的立委丁守中卻質疑，計價幣別不得為新台幣，也不得與新台幣利率、匯率連結，「那人家乾脆跟外國買就好了」。

儘管彭總裁與金管會主委曾銘宗都說，雙方溝通沒問題，新台幣境外金融業務早就開放，與自經區是兩碼子事，兩人還刻意在立委面前勾肩搭背破除不合傳言，卻無助於實際問題的解決。可以看出政院內部對於自經示範區的金融開放，有很大的爭議。

台灣的金融商品設計，匯率、利率問題，不應是鐵板一塊。最近張忠謀以罕見的嚴詞批評匯率的問題，彭總裁拿蔡明介、劉金標及機車族來做擋箭牌，顯現央行匯率決策權威不容受到挑戰，卻也讓外界覺得央行防衛過當。

歷史以成敗論英雄。台灣的經濟發展在經歷馬總統兩任期後，終究會有結果產生。屆時金融業的表現、GDP 的占比是升是降，大陸崛起後台灣經濟是被邊緣化還是再創新猷，都要一起算總帳，也都可以論斷責任的歸屬。只是以既定的路線再走，目前的悶經濟實在很難突破，那2016年馬總統交棒的狀況，實在不忍想像。

與其屆時新亭對泣，不如現在大家就掀開這個鍋蓋，召開經濟國是會議，讓不同的聲音大鳴大放，經過嚴謹的論證，讓真理越辯越明，尋找共識，再共同來努力。