Government Irresolution Could Doom TISA

Government Irresolution Could Doom TISA
United Daily News editorial (Taipei, Taiwan, Republic of China)
A Translation
November 7, 2013

Summary: TISA is not merely a bilateral interaction between Taiwan and the Mainland. It is the starting point for Taiwan's integration into the international trade network. We realize the government is aware of this. But those in power must be bold and forthright when faced with challenges. They must not act guilty and irresolute. They must explain matters clearly, so that the public will know what must be done.

Full text below:

The Cross-Strait Trade In Services Agreement (TISA) was signed on June 21. Since then controversy has raged on. The Legislative Yuan has decided it must hold a long string of public hearings before it begins the review process. The 10th hearing will be held today. After that, six more must be held. At the rate of one hearing every two weeks, public hearings could drag on into the Lunar New Year. The bill can no longer be passed this year.

Even more seriously, the public hearings remain mired in "Sez you, sez me" gridlock. For the general public, the more it hears, the more it is confused. Making it all worse, we have ruling vs. opposition party political antagonism. All this makes TISA a critical first step for Taiwan's economic development. The future is filled with unknowns. Whatever the outcome, increasing polarization has already harmed Taiwan. Can the aftermath be dealt with? That depends on the government's confidence.

Over the past four months domestic debate over TISA has raged on. The government miraculously transformed a benefit to the nation into a disaster. This is deeply troubling. Consider the outcome of TISA negotiations. Based on WTO liberalization requirements, Beijing made 80 additional commitments to Taipei. Trade on these items has been liberalized. With the exception of Hong Kong, the conditions were more favorable to us than they were in the 12 FTAs Beijing signed with other governments. Simply put, these 80 commitments to Taipei are global business opportunities unmatched by any others in the entire world. Of course, no agreement can guarantee success. But this one at least provides Taiwan businesses conditions better than those offered any other government. Yet many on Taiwan persist in demonizing this golden opportunity and depicting it as a lethal threat.

Consider the 64 commitments our side has made. The primary commitment was exemption from WTO liberalization requirements upon our WTO accession in 2002. In 2003 the Democratic Progressive Party was in power. It was already implementing WTO commitments. It was already preparing to allow Mainland investments into Taiwan. The items it was preparing to allow in were very similar to the 64 items TISA will allow in.

Now look further ahead. Among the 64 items Taipei promised to allow in, 27 were Mainland investments already allowed into Taiwan in three waves over the past five years. According to the "phased opening of Mainland investments in Taiwan" policy, the remaining 37 items will be allowed in gradually even without TISA. Consider the results of the 27 items already allowed in over the past five years. The record shows that concerns about a "massive invasion" and a "total collapse" have not materialized. Under the circumstances, concerns that the 37 items still to be allowed in will somehow cause Taiwan's industry to collapse or produce massive unemployment are utterly unfounded.

From this we can see TISA clearly favors us. This is simple fact. Yet even today, government officials have not been able to explain them to the public. They have left observers with the mistaken impression that their negotiations failed, that disaster looms, and that a massive invasion is imminent. Administration officials are so deficient in their ability to persuade and so wishy-washy in their resolve, that they defy credulity.

Consider the Ministry of Economic Affairs website. The government has made an effort to respond. But the data merely sits there. It has absolutely no impact at all. It is as if they had said nothing at all. The opposition grossly exaggerates the impact of the bill. But the government never explains matters simply and concisely. It never resolves public concerns. Even when ruling party legislators question them, their responses elicit boos and disbelief. From the very beginning the government has been in disarray. Now it has been reduced to mumbling to itself. Opposition charges are becoming shriller. Government resolve is becoming weaker. Will TISA be passed? The agencies in charge now appear indifferent. The service industries that support TISA now feel impotent. As a result, even more people wonder whether the government has something to hide. They wonder whether their timidity amounts to an admission of guilt.

Consider the matter from the perspective of international competition or domestic restructuring. If Taiwan is willing to cocoon itself, it will merely continue its descent into the abyss. If the government knows that TISA is beneficial to Taiwan, if it knows that economic and trade development must go forward, then it must regroup. It must seize the initiative. It must build consensus. It must let people know that TISA is to our advantage. It must rally people from different walks of life. It must shift the focus of the debate from individual tragedies and hardships, to collective long-term benefits. If cross-Strait economic and trade relations cannot take this step, it will erect political barriers to our FTAs with foreign nations, and to our economic integration in ASEAN. This is a difficult issue, one that opponents of TISA have never seriously given any thought to answering.

Even more seriously, suppose Taipei and Beijing want to participate in international trade negotiations such as ASEAN plus six? Suppose WTO obligations remain unresolved? How can international bodies such as ASEAN plus six tolerate our refusal to fulfill our obligations to the Mainland under WTO? TISA is not merely a bilateral interaction between Taiwan and the Mainland. It is the starting point for Taiwan's integration into the international trade network.

We realize the government is aware of this. But those in power must be bold and forthright when faced with challenges. They must not act guilty and irresolute. They must explain matters clearly, so that the public will know what must be done.

政府若畏縮迴避，服貿困境恐將無解
【聯合報╱社論】
2013.11.07 03:53 am

兩岸服務貿易協議自六月廿一日簽署後，相關爭議至今仍未平息。立法院決議要辦完公聽會後才進入審查程序，而扣去今天將舉行的第十場，還有六場未辦；以兩周一場的速度來看，公聽程序可能到明年農曆新年前才能走完，今年要通過此案已無可能。

更嚴重的是，在公聽會中，支持與反對的意見仍然陷於各說各話的局面，讓一般民眾越聽越糊塗。再加上朝野對立的政治氛圍，讓這個關係台灣經濟發展極重要的一步，前途充滿變數。無論最後結果如何，這種分歧擴大的發展過程，其實已對台灣造成傷害；該如何善後，關鍵取決於政府的信心與態度。

回顧過去四個月國內對服貿協議的爭論，政府竟能將一件對國家的美事談成一宗憾事，讓人扼腕。觀察服貿協議的談判成果，中國大陸在其世界貿易組織（ＷＴＯ）自由化的基礎上，額外對台灣做出八十項新的開放承諾；且這些開放項目，除香港外，幾皆超越已和它簽署的十二個自由貿易協定（ＦＴＡ）之範疇。簡單地說，這八十項承諾正是台商可以獨步全球的商機所在；當然任何協議都不是成功的保證，但至少提供了業者一個優於各國的基礎，但國內卻有許多人把「機會」醜化為「威脅」。

再看我方作出的六十四項承諾，主要是二○○二年加入ＷＴＯ時應開放而沒有開放的項目。事實上，二○○三年民進黨主政時，即已有落實ＷＴＯ承諾、逐步開放陸資來台的準備；而當時準備開放的項目，與現在兩岸服貿協議所承諾的六十四項，高度雷同。

進一步看，我方承諾的六十四項中，有高達廿七項是過去五年三波開放陸資來台，即已開放的項目。依「分階段開放陸資來台」的政策步調，剩下的卅七項，就算沒有服貿協議，也會逐步開放。從已開放的廿七項產業五年來執行的結果看，事實證明並未發生民眾所擔憂的「大舉入侵」、「全面崩盤」的問題；在這種情況下，要說剩下即將開放的卅七項會造成台灣產業崩潰或大量失業等，均是毫無根據的憂慮。

從此看來，服貿協議內容明顯是向我方傾斜，對我方有利。然而，就連如此簡單的事實，政府官員到今天不僅還說不清楚，甚至還讓外界留下「談判失敗」、「洪水猛獸將至」、「大軍壓境」的印象。官員說服力如此之低，如此唯唯諾諾，簡直不可思議。

看看經濟部的相關網站，政府並非沒有花工夫回應；但是，這些資料只是靜靜地躺在那裡，完全未發揮效果，等於沒有說。對於在野黨誇大衝擊之詞，政府也無法以言簡意賅的方式說明，化解外界的疑慮，甚至連執政黨立委都跟著起鬨質疑。這從爭議初期的自亂陣腳，演為今天喃喃自語的困境，反對者的指責不斷增強，政府的態度則一路變得更弱。如今，對服貿協議何時通過，相關部門似乎已抱著無所謂的心情，也讓支持服貿協議的產業感到格外無力。如此一來，更令外界懷疑政府是否也很心虛，是否默認了反對者的許多指控。

不論從國際競爭的大環境看，或是從國內經濟的轉型再出發看，台灣如果再甘於作繭自困，將只能繼續消沈下去。政府若認為服貿對台灣有利，是經貿發展必須走的一步，就必須重新整隊，發動攻勢凝聚共識，讓民眾相信服貿協議對我們的好處；同時要呼喚各界，把討論焦點從「個體」的悲情與困難，重新拉回到「整體」的利益與長期效益的高度。若兩岸經貿關係無法踏出這一步，必然會增加我對外洽簽ＦＴＡ及參與如東協等經濟整合的政治障礙。而這個大哉問，反對服貿協議者從未認真回答或思考過。

更嚴峻的是，兩岸未來若要同時參與同一個國際經貿談判（例如東協加六），未落實ＷＴＯ義務的問題依然要解決，而「東協加六」這些國際機制，豈能容忍我們繼續像在ＷＴＯ架構下一樣對中國大陸不履行義務？這意味，兩岸服貿協議的意義，絕對不只是單純的「台灣─中國」雙邊互動而已，而是台灣融入國際經貿網絡的起點。

我們相信這些道理政府都懂，但重要的是，執政者必須以光明正大的態度公開迎戰，而不是心虛畏縮地迴避。能把這些問題講明白，民眾自然知所抉擇！