Support Free Trade Zone Financial Deregulation
China Times editorial (Taipei, Taiwan, Republic of China)
A Translation
November 22, 2013
Summary: We look forward to financial industry deregulation within the Free Trade Zones. They will attract more foreign investment. They will increase the breadth and depth of Taiwan's shallow dish market. When a market has sufficient participants, these participants will restrain each other. They will accelerate market equilibrium. This will avoid speculative arbitrage. The Central Bank must create a niche for the financial industry. It must create a better business environment. Its primary goal must be to accelerate the transformation of Taiwan's economic structure.
Full text below:
During the 1940s, Hitler's National Socialism and Stalin's totalitarian Communism reached their ideological zenith. A planned economy was de rigueur, and augmented by the lingering shadows cast by the Great Depression of the 1930s. Western countries demanded rampant regulation of their economies. Against all odds, Friedrich Hayek championed the market economy. He issued a declaration that would reverberate through the latter half of the 20th century. He said that if the West rushes headlong into the planned economy, it will be taking the road to serfdom. He resolutely championed liberalism and the market economy.
According to Hayek, the role of government is insignificant. It as at best a bystander. In the modern global economy, all countries have extremely complex financial systems. Minute fluctuations in their financial systems are likely to cause a snowball effect, and affect the real economy. This poses a problem for economists. Should the government remain a bystander? Or should it become a participant? If it wants to become a participant, how much authority should it wield, and by what means? Most importantly, how can one prevent this participant from becoming a problem?
The ROC is a member of WTO, APEC and other international organizations. The Taiwan Region of the ROC has a high degree of economic freedom. The Heritage Foundation "2013 Index of Economic Freedom" ranked it 20th among 177. Its score has increased over the past four years. Among 41 economies in the Asian Pacific region, it ranks 5th. It trails only Hong Kong, Singapore, Australia, and New Zealand.
The paradox is that Taiwan's economy is among the world's freest. Yet its financial sector growth ranks among the world's worst. According to World Economic Forum (WEF) "2012 Financial Development Report" world rankings for financial centers, Hong Kong ranks number one. Even the Mainland, with strict financial controls, ranks 23rd. Taiwan did not even make the cut. The report also makes an important point. In both developed and developing economies, a rigid financial system has an "adverse impact on economic recovery and growth."
Whether a nation's financial industry is developed is closely related to whether its capital is free to move about. Hong Kong has been called "a bastion of the free economy." It has long maintained a simple tax system and imposes no foreign exchange controls. All sorts of foreign currencies are readily convertible and transferrable. Capital flows are unrestricted. The flow of people, materiel, and capital are unimpeded. This has made Hong Kong Asia's most prosperous trading port.
By contrast, Taiwan may have a high degree of economic freedom. But capital flows and the development of financial products are subject to a maze of restrictions. The signs of human meddling are everywhere. For example, capital flows into Taiwan must be reported to the Central Bank. FSC financial instruments have long been restricted by conservative policies. Taiwan has far less diversity than neighboring economies.
Taiwan has a shallow dish economy. It must maintain exchange rate stability. It must avoid becoming a target of foreign hot money. Some degree of protection may be necessary. But excessive protectionism will only harm itself.
The FSC has recently changed its conservative policies. It now recommends deregulation of financial products linked to Taiwan interest rates, exchange rates, and NTD-denominated commodities within the Free Trade Zone. But differences of opinion have emerged between it and the Central Bank. The Central Bank's main objection has remained the same. It is worried about the impact of NTD exchange rate fluctuations. The Central Bank has adopted a tough stance. It refuses to compromise. But financial instruments must be linked to NTD interest rates and exchange rates. Businesses located outside the Taiwan Region cannot compete with Hong Kong and Singapore. Taiwan's financial industry will have no niche in which it can compete.
Taiwan's financial industry must be deregulated. It must be made part of the ROC's overall economic development plan. It must be consistent with industrial restructuring. The dog must wag the tail. The tail must never wag the dog. Exchange rate stability is important. But the Central Bank's mandate is not limited to stabilizing the exchange rate. If the Central Bank stabilizes the exchange rate at the expense of financial sector growth, that is contrary to its mission.
For years the Central Bank has perceived foreign central banks as the source of chaos-inducing hot money. It has kept a close watch over funds. The FSC is extremely conservative about financial instruments and deregulation. It intervenes everywhere. This has stalled Taiwan's financial industry for nearly 10 years. Over the past 12 years, the output value of Taiwan's financial GDP ratio has declined steadily. In 2012 the GDP ratio fell to 6.5%. This lags behind Hong Kong, Singapore, and even South Korea. In recent years, the Mainland has gradually implemented financial deregulation. Its market offers a wealth of opportunities. This has induced financial professionals on Taiwan to flock to the Mainland. The financial industry on Taiwan faces a loss of both human and financial capital.
Taiwan's economy remains stalled. Its service industries remain low value-added industries. This is directly related to the atrophy of the financial industry. Statistics show that average salaries in Taiwan's banking industry are twice that of other service industries. But in recent years Taiwan's financial industry has stalled. People of talent have been lured away by the Mainland, Hong Kong, and Singapore. Sectors with higher than average salaries have suffered major losses. Needless to say the national average salary has not risen.
HTC and Acer profits are warning signals. They underscore Taiwan's ICT industry bottleneck. These major growth engines for Taiwan's economic growth have stalled. Taiwan urgently needs the financial services industry as a new growth engine. They must provide balance for Taiwan's economic structure.
We look forward to financial industry deregulation within the Free Trade Zones. They will attract more foreign investment. They will increase the breadth and depth of Taiwan's shallow dish market. When a market has sufficient participants, these participants will restrain each other. They will accelerate market equilibrium. This will avoid speculative arbitrage. The Central Bank must create a niche for the financial industry. It must create a better business environment. Its primary goal must be to accelerate the transformation of Taiwan's economic structure.
社論－支持自由經濟示範區金融鬆綁
稍後再讀
中國時報 本報訊 2013年11月22日 04:09
1940年代希特勒國家社會主義與史達林共產主義專制集權思想攀至頂峰，計畫經濟大行其道，加上1930年代大蕭條陰影依然籠罩，西方國家呼籲政府管制經 濟的聲浪甚囂塵上，主張市場經濟的海耶克卻力排眾議，說了一句深刻影響後半20世紀人類思想的名言：「若西方貿然朝向計畫經濟前行，等於步上奴役之路」堅 決主張自由主義和市場經濟。
在海耶克的理論中，政府地位無足輕重，頂多是一個旁觀者。然而，在現代國際經濟體系中，每一國家都面對極為複雜的金融網路，任何金融上的小波動，都有可能 引發滾雪球般的效果，進而影響實體經濟。這就給經濟學家製造了一個難題，政府究竟是旁觀者，還是參與者？如果要參與，權限有多大？透過怎樣的機制？最重要 的是，要如何避免「參與者本身變成問題的來源」？
身為WTO、APEC等國際組織的成員，台灣是高度的自由經濟體。美國傳統基金會公布「2013年經濟自由度指數」顯示，台灣在世界177個國家中排名第20，得分連續4年上升，在亞太41個國家中為第5，僅次於香港、新加坡、澳洲、紐西蘭。
弔詭的是，台灣經濟自由度名列前茅，但金融業發展的排名卻在全球吊車尾。據世界經濟論壇（WEF）公布的「2012年金融發展報告」，在世界金融中心的排 名中，香港高居第一，連對金融管制甚嚴的大陸都排23，台灣竟未入榜。這份報告還點出一個重要的觀點：不論已發展或發展中國家，金融體系僵化「不利經濟復 甦與發展」。
一國金融業發達與否，與其資金能否自由進出息息相關，香港被稱為「自由經濟的堡壘」，係因長期實行簡單稅制及無外匯管制政策，各種外幣可以隨時兌換調動，資金進出無限制。人流、物流、金流暢行無阻，讓香港成為亞洲最興旺的貿易港。
反觀經濟高度自由的台灣，對資金進出和金融產品的發展卻限制重重，人為干預斧痕鑿鑿。譬如，資金匯入台灣，必須向央行申報，長期以來金融商品在金管會保守政策管制下，多樣性遠遠不及鄰近國家。
台灣是淺碟型經濟體，必須保持匯率穩定，避免遭外資熱錢狙擊，適度防衛確有必要，過度防衛卻會自傷。
金管會最近一改保守政策，力主在自經區開放「與台灣利率、匯率、新台幣計價商品連結」的金融商品，卻出現和央行意見分歧現象。央行反對的理由始終如一，擔 心影響新台幣匯率波動，央行態度強硬，絕不妥協。可是，金融商品若不得與新台幣利率、匯率連結，境外的生意又不是香港和新加坡的對手，台灣金融業還有什麼 競爭利基？
台灣金融業的鬆綁，要在國家整體經濟發展計畫之下規畫，要配合產業結構調整的大脈絡，應該是「狗搖尾巴」絕不會是「尾巴搖狗」；匯率穩定非常重要，但央行的權責不是只有穩定匯率，若央行以匯率穩定為唯一職責，即使阻礙金融業發展也在所不惜，那就違背設置央行的宗旨。
長年以來，央行慣性把外資視為炒匯熱錢，對資金緊迫盯人，金管會對金融商品的開放與管制的鬆綁也保守至極，干預管制無所不在，導致台灣近10年金融業發展 幾乎一潭死水。近12年來，台灣金融產值占GDP比率節節下滑，2012年占GDP比率降至6.5%，遠不及香港、新加坡甚至韓國。大陸近年金融管制逐漸 開放，市場充滿機會，造成台灣金融人才大量流向大陸現象，台灣金融業面臨人財兩失窘境。
台灣經濟發展陷入困頓，服務業附加價值低，與金融業萎縮絕對有關。統計顯示，台灣銀行業平均薪資水準是工業或其他服務業的2倍，但近年台灣金融業發展遲滯，人才被大陸、香港和新加坡大舉挖角，平均薪資較高的部門就業人口快速流失，國內平均薪資自然無法提升。
宏達電、宏碁經營上的警訊，凸顯了台灣資通訊產業陷入瓶頸，支撐台灣經濟成長的一大引擎正在失速，亟需金融服務業成為新的成長引擎，進而平衡台灣的經濟結構。
我們期盼藉由金融業納入自經區後的法規鬆綁，能吸引更多的外資來台，幫助淺碟型市場的台灣增加其廣度與深度。事實上，當一個市場有足夠的參與者，彼此才能 相互牽制，助市場加速達成均衡，避免投機套利的發生。現階段，央行要以為金融業創造利基、營造更好的經營環境，幫助台灣經濟結構加速轉型為首要目標。
China Times editorial (Taipei, Taiwan, Republic of China)
A Translation
November 22, 2013
Summary: We look forward to financial industry deregulation within the Free Trade Zones. They will attract more foreign investment. They will increase the breadth and depth of Taiwan's shallow dish market. When a market has sufficient participants, these participants will restrain each other. They will accelerate market equilibrium. This will avoid speculative arbitrage. The Central Bank must create a niche for the financial industry. It must create a better business environment. Its primary goal must be to accelerate the transformation of Taiwan's economic structure.
Full text below:
During the 1940s, Hitler's National Socialism and Stalin's totalitarian Communism reached their ideological zenith. A planned economy was de rigueur, and augmented by the lingering shadows cast by the Great Depression of the 1930s. Western countries demanded rampant regulation of their economies. Against all odds, Friedrich Hayek championed the market economy. He issued a declaration that would reverberate through the latter half of the 20th century. He said that if the West rushes headlong into the planned economy, it will be taking the road to serfdom. He resolutely championed liberalism and the market economy.
According to Hayek, the role of government is insignificant. It as at best a bystander. In the modern global economy, all countries have extremely complex financial systems. Minute fluctuations in their financial systems are likely to cause a snowball effect, and affect the real economy. This poses a problem for economists. Should the government remain a bystander? Or should it become a participant? If it wants to become a participant, how much authority should it wield, and by what means? Most importantly, how can one prevent this participant from becoming a problem?
The ROC is a member of WTO, APEC and other international organizations. The Taiwan Region of the ROC has a high degree of economic freedom. The Heritage Foundation "2013 Index of Economic Freedom" ranked it 20th among 177. Its score has increased over the past four years. Among 41 economies in the Asian Pacific region, it ranks 5th. It trails only Hong Kong, Singapore, Australia, and New Zealand.
The paradox is that Taiwan's economy is among the world's freest. Yet its financial sector growth ranks among the world's worst. According to World Economic Forum (WEF) "2012 Financial Development Report" world rankings for financial centers, Hong Kong ranks number one. Even the Mainland, with strict financial controls, ranks 23rd. Taiwan did not even make the cut. The report also makes an important point. In both developed and developing economies, a rigid financial system has an "adverse impact on economic recovery and growth."
Whether a nation's financial industry is developed is closely related to whether its capital is free to move about. Hong Kong has been called "a bastion of the free economy." It has long maintained a simple tax system and imposes no foreign exchange controls. All sorts of foreign currencies are readily convertible and transferrable. Capital flows are unrestricted. The flow of people, materiel, and capital are unimpeded. This has made Hong Kong Asia's most prosperous trading port.
By contrast, Taiwan may have a high degree of economic freedom. But capital flows and the development of financial products are subject to a maze of restrictions. The signs of human meddling are everywhere. For example, capital flows into Taiwan must be reported to the Central Bank. FSC financial instruments have long been restricted by conservative policies. Taiwan has far less diversity than neighboring economies.
Taiwan has a shallow dish economy. It must maintain exchange rate stability. It must avoid becoming a target of foreign hot money. Some degree of protection may be necessary. But excessive protectionism will only harm itself.
The FSC has recently changed its conservative policies. It now recommends deregulation of financial products linked to Taiwan interest rates, exchange rates, and NTD-denominated commodities within the Free Trade Zone. But differences of opinion have emerged between it and the Central Bank. The Central Bank's main objection has remained the same. It is worried about the impact of NTD exchange rate fluctuations. The Central Bank has adopted a tough stance. It refuses to compromise. But financial instruments must be linked to NTD interest rates and exchange rates. Businesses located outside the Taiwan Region cannot compete with Hong Kong and Singapore. Taiwan's financial industry will have no niche in which it can compete.
Taiwan's financial industry must be deregulated. It must be made part of the ROC's overall economic development plan. It must be consistent with industrial restructuring. The dog must wag the tail. The tail must never wag the dog. Exchange rate stability is important. But the Central Bank's mandate is not limited to stabilizing the exchange rate. If the Central Bank stabilizes the exchange rate at the expense of financial sector growth, that is contrary to its mission.
For years the Central Bank has perceived foreign central banks as the source of chaos-inducing hot money. It has kept a close watch over funds. The FSC is extremely conservative about financial instruments and deregulation. It intervenes everywhere. This has stalled Taiwan's financial industry for nearly 10 years. Over the past 12 years, the output value of Taiwan's financial GDP ratio has declined steadily. In 2012 the GDP ratio fell to 6.5%. This lags behind Hong Kong, Singapore, and even South Korea. In recent years, the Mainland has gradually implemented financial deregulation. Its market offers a wealth of opportunities. This has induced financial professionals on Taiwan to flock to the Mainland. The financial industry on Taiwan faces a loss of both human and financial capital.
Taiwan's economy remains stalled. Its service industries remain low value-added industries. This is directly related to the atrophy of the financial industry. Statistics show that average salaries in Taiwan's banking industry are twice that of other service industries. But in recent years Taiwan's financial industry has stalled. People of talent have been lured away by the Mainland, Hong Kong, and Singapore. Sectors with higher than average salaries have suffered major losses. Needless to say the national average salary has not risen.
HTC and Acer profits are warning signals. They underscore Taiwan's ICT industry bottleneck. These major growth engines for Taiwan's economic growth have stalled. Taiwan urgently needs the financial services industry as a new growth engine. They must provide balance for Taiwan's economic structure.
We look forward to financial industry deregulation within the Free Trade Zones. They will attract more foreign investment. They will increase the breadth and depth of Taiwan's shallow dish market. When a market has sufficient participants, these participants will restrain each other. They will accelerate market equilibrium. This will avoid speculative arbitrage. The Central Bank must create a niche for the financial industry. It must create a better business environment. Its primary goal must be to accelerate the transformation of Taiwan's economic structure.
社論－支持自由經濟示範區金融鬆綁
稍後再讀
中國時報 本報訊 2013年11月22日 04:09
1940年代希特勒國家社會主義與史達林共產主義專制集權思想攀至頂峰，計畫經濟大行其道，加上1930年代大蕭條陰影依然籠罩，西方國家呼籲政府管制經 濟的聲浪甚囂塵上，主張市場經濟的海耶克卻力排眾議，說了一句深刻影響後半20世紀人類思想的名言：「若西方貿然朝向計畫經濟前行，等於步上奴役之路」堅 決主張自由主義和市場經濟。
在海耶克的理論中，政府地位無足輕重，頂多是一個旁觀者。然而，在現代國際經濟體系中，每一國家都面對極為複雜的金融網路，任何金融上的小波動，都有可能 引發滾雪球般的效果，進而影響實體經濟。這就給經濟學家製造了一個難題，政府究竟是旁觀者，還是參與者？如果要參與，權限有多大？透過怎樣的機制？最重要 的是，要如何避免「參與者本身變成問題的來源」？
身為WTO、APEC等國際組織的成員，台灣是高度的自由經濟體。美國傳統基金會公布「2013年經濟自由度指數」顯示，台灣在世界177個國家中排名第20，得分連續4年上升，在亞太41個國家中為第5，僅次於香港、新加坡、澳洲、紐西蘭。
弔詭的是，台灣經濟自由度名列前茅，但金融業發展的排名卻在全球吊車尾。據世界經濟論壇（WEF）公布的「2012年金融發展報告」，在世界金融中心的排 名中，香港高居第一，連對金融管制甚嚴的大陸都排23，台灣竟未入榜。這份報告還點出一個重要的觀點：不論已發展或發展中國家，金融體系僵化「不利經濟復 甦與發展」。
一國金融業發達與否，與其資金能否自由進出息息相關，香港被稱為「自由經濟的堡壘」，係因長期實行簡單稅制及無外匯管制政策，各種外幣可以隨時兌換調動，資金進出無限制。人流、物流、金流暢行無阻，讓香港成為亞洲最興旺的貿易港。
反觀經濟高度自由的台灣，對資金進出和金融產品的發展卻限制重重，人為干預斧痕鑿鑿。譬如，資金匯入台灣，必須向央行申報，長期以來金融商品在金管會保守政策管制下，多樣性遠遠不及鄰近國家。
台灣是淺碟型經濟體，必須保持匯率穩定，避免遭外資熱錢狙擊，適度防衛確有必要，過度防衛卻會自傷。
金管會最近一改保守政策，力主在自經區開放「與台灣利率、匯率、新台幣計價商品連結」的金融商品，卻出現和央行意見分歧現象。央行反對的理由始終如一，擔 心影響新台幣匯率波動，央行態度強硬，絕不妥協。可是，金融商品若不得與新台幣利率、匯率連結，境外的生意又不是香港和新加坡的對手，台灣金融業還有什麼 競爭利基？
台灣金融業的鬆綁，要在國家整體經濟發展計畫之下規畫，要配合產業結構調整的大脈絡，應該是「狗搖尾巴」絕不會是「尾巴搖狗」；匯率穩定非常重要，但央行的權責不是只有穩定匯率，若央行以匯率穩定為唯一職責，即使阻礙金融業發展也在所不惜，那就違背設置央行的宗旨。
長年以來，央行慣性把外資視為炒匯熱錢，對資金緊迫盯人，金管會對金融商品的開放與管制的鬆綁也保守至極，干預管制無所不在，導致台灣近10年金融業發展 幾乎一潭死水。近12年來，台灣金融產值占GDP比率節節下滑，2012年占GDP比率降至6.5%，遠不及香港、新加坡甚至韓國。大陸近年金融管制逐漸 開放，市場充滿機會，造成台灣金融人才大量流向大陸現象，台灣金融業面臨人財兩失窘境。
台灣經濟發展陷入困頓，服務業附加價值低，與金融業萎縮絕對有關。統計顯示，台灣銀行業平均薪資水準是工業或其他服務業的2倍，但近年台灣金融業發展遲滯，人才被大陸、香港和新加坡大舉挖角，平均薪資較高的部門就業人口快速流失，國內平均薪資自然無法提升。
宏達電、宏碁經營上的警訊，凸顯了台灣資通訊產業陷入瓶頸，支撐台灣經濟成長的一大引擎正在失速，亟需金融服務業成為新的成長引擎，進而平衡台灣的經濟結構。
我們期盼藉由金融業納入自經區後的法規鬆綁，能吸引更多的外資來台，幫助淺碟型市場的台灣增加其廣度與深度。事實上，當一個市場有足夠的參與者，彼此才能 相互牽制，助市場加速達成均衡，避免投機套利的發生。現階段，央行要以為金融業創造利基、營造更好的經營環境，幫助台灣經濟結構加速轉型為首要目標。
No comments:
Post a Comment