Annette Lu's Unvoiced "Fifth Possibility"

Annette Lu's Unvoiced "Fifth Possibility"
United Daily News editorial (Taipei, Taiwan, ROC)
A Translation
March 11, 2009

March 19, 2009 will be the fifth anniversary of the 319 Shooting Incident. Annette Lu has published a book about it entitled, "Perspectives on 319: One Reality, One Taiwan."

When the incident occurred, a deeply skeptical public cried, "No Truth, No President!" Annette Lu, in an interview with the United Daily News said, "No Truth, No Taiwan," or at least "No Democratic, United Taiwan."

Some believe that without those two bullets the Chen/Lu ticket would never have closed the 30,000 ballot gap during the 2004 presidential election. Annette Lu says she is a victim of the 319 Shooting Incident. But the 319 Shooting Incident also gave her a second term. If the truth behind the 319 Shooting Incident is not uncovered, a pall will forever be cast over her political legacy. She seems to be saying she cannot tolerate the implication that her second term was the result of a staged shooting incident, and is determined to uncover the truth.

Annette Lu's suspicions are shared by most people. Most people are disgusted by the incompetence and chaos that prevailed during Chen Shui-bian's second term. More to the point, they suspect Chen Shui-bian staged the 319 Shooting Incident to remain in office four more years. Whatever the truth about the 319 Shooting Incident, Chen Shui-bian received a second term due to sheer luck. This undermines his mandate. His dubious mandate was a chief contributor to the chaos that prevailed during his second term.

Annette Lu suggested "four possible perpetrators" of the shooting incident, whom she labeled red, blue, green, and black. She then ruled out all four. According to Lu, it could not have been Beijing, i.e., red. It could not have been the Pan Blues, i.e., blue. It could not have been the Pan Greens, i.e., green. It could not have been criminal triads, i.e., black. She also challenged the conclusion that Chen Yi-hsiung was a "lone gunman." She thinks that at the very least accomplices must hae been involved. She does not think Chen Yi-hsiung committed suicide. Nor does she think that an amateur like Chen Yi-hsiung could have used "one pistol to fire two shots in 0.63 seconds" The recoil of the pistol would have made a second shot extremely difficult. Even if a second shot was fired, she said the bullets "absolutely" could not have struck Chen Shui-bian in the abdomen. Annette Lu's greatest suspicion is "Why was the first shot fired at me?" This shot was the only one known to have been fired at the scene.

Annette Lu has ruled out four possibilities, including red, blue,green, and black. But she failed to mention a fifth possibility, one that is logically unavoidable, namely that Chen Shui-bian staged the entire incident. The government has yet to give the public a convincing explanation of the 319 Shooting Incident. Until it does, the possibility that Chen Shui-bian staged the entire incident is all too real. If anything, it remains the most plausible explanation.

Annette Lu clearly harbors this suspicion. After she was shot, Annette Lu said she "took a bullet for the people of Taiwan." Chen Shui-bian is adept at political manipulation. Logically he should have portrayed himself as a national hero who took a bullet for the people of Taiwan. Instead he avoided drawing any conclusions about the incident until nearly four years later, when he referred to the incident as an "assassination attempt" for the first time. Immediately following the incident, Annette Lu was shaken. Compare her reaction to Chen's surprisingly relaxed demeanor. Annette Lu was eager to get at the truth. Chen Shui-bian, on the other hand, did everything in his power to obstruct the investigation. Annette Lu said "Ah-Bian was not as determined as I was to get to the bottom of the case."

The 319 Shooting Incident remains a mystery. Chen Yi-hsiung's role must not be left unexplained. Even Annette Lu finds this unacceptable. The public watched the Special Investigation Group find the Chen family guilty of corruption. It watched the Chen family proclaim its innocence. Had the 319 Ad Hoc Group used the same standards as the Special Investigation Unit to investigate the Chen family, it could have raised Chen Yi-hsiung from the dead. Given Chen Shui-bian's financial resources and the expertise of his legal team, Chen Yi-hsiung could have testified on Chen Shui-bian's behalf. Given the 319 Ad Hoc Group's "reverse engineered" explanation for the 319 Shooting Incident, how can it possibly claim Chen Yi-hsiung was the assassin?

Chen Shui-bian is by nature a con man. Years ago, when Wu Shu-chen was the victim of a car accident, Ah-Bian spun it as "political assassination," turning it into the Chen family's lifelong "political asset." That too was a hoax. After Chen Shui-bian was detained, he staged two hunger strikes. He said "he no longer wished to live, and was determined to exit with honor." That too was a cheap play for sympathy. Was the 319 Shooting Incident yet another hoax staged by Chen himself? Was it yet another self-inflicted wound to deceive the voters and win a second term? Was it the hoax of the century? To many it unquestionably was. Chen Shui-bian's underhanded nature has become too clear. Chen Shui-bian's transparent deceptions have been perpetrated too many times. The public cannot help being deeply skeptical about the 319 Shooting Incident.

Annette Lu's suspicions are shared by most of the public. Five years ago at the crime scene, Annette Lu was shot in the knee. Had that bullet struck her elsewhere, she could have died. Perhaps it was intended to "prove" that Chen Shui-bian was also shot at the crime scene. Annette Lu coming forward may not crack the case. But she has reminded everyone that the 319 Shooting Incident remains an unsolved mystery.

Annette Lu failed to mention the fifth possibility. Could it be because she knows most people consider it the most likely possibility?

Additional Reading: Annette Lu discusses 319: Dr. Henry Lee is Wrong

呂秀蓮沒有說出的第五種可能
【聯合報╱社論】
2009.03.11 04:08 am

三一九槍擊案五周年，呂秀蓮親撰發行專書《透視三一九：一個真相，一個台灣》。

案發當年，對這宗奇案強烈質疑的群眾吶喊：「沒有真相，沒有總統！」現在，呂秀蓮在接受本報專訪時則說：「沒有真相，也就沒有台灣，至少，沒有民主團結的台灣。」

有人認為，倘若沒有那兩顆子彈，陳呂配或許在二○○四年大選就不可能以三萬票的差距倖勝；呂秀蓮說，她是三一九的受害者，卻同時也是因三一九而取得政權的 得利者，如果沒有辦法對三一九案找到事實，這種質疑對她是永遠的侮辱。她似乎要說，因為不願蒙受藉槍擊案詐取政權的質疑，她要追尋真相。

呂秀蓮的疑惑，正是多數國人的共同疑惑。多數國人如今對陳水扁在第二任四年的禍國亂政深惡痛絕，但更根本的疑惑卻在陳水扁是否藉操作三一九槍擊事件而詐取 政權？擺在國人面前的事實是：無論三一九的真相如何，但陳水扁因該案而僥倖取得政權，以及因該案而使得其統治正當性動搖，這種不穩定的根基，正是形成他在 第二任四年禍國亂政的主因。

呂秀蓮對槍擊事件的因由指出紅藍綠黑「四種可能」，但她也一概排除了這四種可能。不可能是中國（紅），不可能是泛藍（藍），不可能是泛綠（綠），也不可能 是賭盤或黑道（黑）。同時，她也質疑將陳義雄指為凶手的結論，至少認為另有共犯。她不認為陳義雄是自殺而死，也不認為在實驗情形下的「零點六三秒／一槍兩 彈」是陳義雄這類外行人可以達到的技術水準。（因為，在徒手持槍射擊時，首次擊發後的零點六三秒，因後座力，槍口朝天，即使勉強二次擊發，子彈也「絕對」 不可能射在陳水扁的肚皮上。）呂秀蓮最大的質疑則是：「為何第一槍（也是唯一可以證實在現場開的一槍）是對我而發？」

呂秀蓮排除了紅藍綠黑四種可能，但她卻未提及在邏輯上必定存在的另一種可能，那就是：陳水扁自導自演。其實，對許多國人來說，在三一九槍擊案尚無一個可昭公信的結論之前，陳水扁自導自演仍是不能排除的一大可能，甚至是最大的可能。

在呂秀蓮心中，顯然有此種質疑。呂秀蓮在遭槍傷後說，她是「為全體台灣人擋子彈」；但是，性好渲染操作的陳水扁，照理說也當大事宣揚他為台灣人遭槍擊的悲 壯行蹟，卻竟然遲遲不對槍擊事件「定性」。一直到將近四年後，陳水扁始首次指此一事件為「暗殺」。案發後，呂的激動，與扁的出奇低調形成明銳對比；呂的急 於追尋真相，也與扁的全力扼制調查成為強烈對照。呂秀蓮說：「扁沒有像我這樣很明確要查到底。」

三一九無疑仍是一個「疑案」，陳義雄的故事絕對不能混充交代，連呂秀蓮也不能接受。國人現在看到特偵組如何認定陳水扁一家犯貪汙罪，而陳水扁一家又如何地 作無罪抗辯；倘若當年三一九專案小組能以今日特偵組起訴扁家的嚴格標準來認定陳義雄的罪嫌，或陳義雄今日能死而復起以陳水扁及其律師團的財力與能力來為他 辯護；請問：以專案小組這種畫鵠射箭的手法，豈能、豈敢、豈可指陳義雄為凶手？

陳水扁的人格核心就是一個「騙」字。例如，當年吳淑珍一場意外車禍，被扁家編造成「政治謀殺」，而成為扁家一世的「政治資產」，但那根本是一個騙局。又 如，陳水扁此次被押，兩次絕食，揚言「不想活了／以死明志」，也是苦肉計的騙局。那麼，三一九槍擊案，是否也是一場騙局？一場自導自演？一場以自殘自傷來 詐取政權的世紀騙案？在在予人想像空間。可以這麼說：當陳水扁的人格底蘊暴露得愈多，當陳水扁匪夷所思的詐騙手法重複使用得愈多，國人對三一九自導自演的 質疑也必然更加深重。

呂秀蓮的疑惑，正是多數國人的疑惑。五年前，呂秀蓮膝蓋在現場被擊中的那一槍（也可能擊中致命部位），或許只是要在事後「證明」陳水扁也在現場中槍的安排而已。呂秀蓮的現身說法，當然未能「破案」，但畢竟更加確立了三一九槍擊案仍然是「未破疑案」的地位！

呂秀蓮沒有說出的第五種可能，莫非正是多數國人深信的最大可能？

※延伸閱讀》呂秀蓮談319 ：李昌鈺博士錯了