The DPP's Dilemma in Tainan County

The DPP's Dilemma in Tainan County
China Times editorial (Taipei, Taiwan, ROC)
A Translation
March 31, 2009

The Ma administration's job performance has been poor. The negative impact of the Chen family corruption and money-laundering case has already been felt. The Democratic Progressive Party sees the year end County Magistrate and City Mayor Elections as a chance for a comeback. But Chen Shui-bian refuses to go away. Over the past few days, rumors suggest Chen Shui-bian intends to run in the Tainan County Legislative by-election. These rumors alone were enough to make DPP leaders wake up in the middle of the night in a cold sweat.

Picture Tsai Ing-wen at DPP campaign rallies, blasting Ma administration ineptitude, the economic downturn, and rapidly worsening unemployment. Meanwhile everyone's attention is focused on Chen Shui-bian's election prospects in Tainan County. How can the Democratic Progressive Party possibly rally support under such conditions? How can it possibly maintain any political momentum it might get from Su Tseng-chang's campaign for Taipei County Commissioner?

Bad as that might be, it's not the worst case scenario. Suppose Chen Shui-bian is actually elected and becomes a Legislator. Chen Shui-bian, not to mention his followers, can inject billions of dollars into the campaigns of Democratic Progressive Party candidates. As Chen put it, "Which faction doesn't owe me favors?" Also, once Ah-Bian stepped down the DPP descended into factional strife. The "Four Princes of the DPP" are terrified of the damage slanderous accusations might inflict upon them. The party has a leadership vacuum. If Chen Shui-bian becomes a Legislator, given his aptitude for political intrigue, and DPP Legislators' habitual deference toward him, Chen could shatter the traditional separation between the DPP party leadership and the DPP legislative caucus. He could become the leader of the DPP legislative caucus, with his own troops to shield him and to do battle with the DPP party leadership.

In fact, Chen Shui-bian, whose reputation has already plumbed the depths, remains the Shadow Chairman of the Democratic Progressive Party. He wields more real power than Party Chairman Tsai Ing-wen. Never mind that she was elected by the party membership. The entire year end County Magistrate and City Mayor Election is unfolding according to Chen Shui-bian's plans.

For example, the DPP party leadership wants Su Tseng-chang to run for Taipei County Magistrate. They hope he can consolidate the DPP's core support, and build momentum for the entire party. But Su Tseng-chang has his own plans for 2012. Therefore, to avoid offending fundamentalists within the party, Su Tseng-chang is unlikely to make any obvious moves to distance himself from Chen Shui-bian. Chen Shui-bian meanwhile, has repeatedly expressed goodwill towards Su Tseng-chang, simultaneously containing him, ensuring that he doesn't dare make any dramatic moves to jettison Chen.

Add to this Tainan County. Ah-Bian first said he wanted Chen Tang-shan to run for Tainan County Magistrate. Later on rumors suggested he might support Yeh Yi-ching for the post, in the process opening up Yeh Yi-ching's Legislative Yuan post for himself. If the DPP is afraid that Chen Shui-bian will act as a spoiler, undermining Yeh Yi-ching's chances, it will be forced to support Chen Tang-shan instead. Ah-Bian would, in effect, have forced DPP party leaders to change their plans, and instead choose the candidate Ah-Bian wanted for Tainan County. Ah-Bian would have completely undermined the candidacies of the new generation candidates the Democratic Progressive Party was grooming.

If the Democratic Progressive Party insists on supporting new generation candidate Yeh Yi-ching, quid pro quo or not, then Yeh Yi-ching will be forced to resign her Legislative Yuan post before the election. If Yeh Yi-ching is elected Tainan County Magistrate, she will leave open a Legislative slot, and Chen Shui-bian will run for certain. If Chen Shui-bian is elected, the DPP's worst nightmare will come true.

How did the Democratic Progressive Party get itself into such a predicament -- one of its own making?

In fact, the harm Chen Shui-bian has inflicted upon the DPP, is hardly limited to his two terms as President. When Chen Shui-bian was President, he indeed had a plan for "long-term rule." During the County Magistrate and City Mayor Elections of 2005, Ah-Bian hand-picked Luo Wen-chia and Lin Chia-lung, in the name of generational change. He forced out Barry Hou, with the intention of grooming Chen Chi-mai for Mayor of Kaohsiung. But when the Chen Shui-bian corruption and money-laundering scandals broke, one after another, the Democratic Progressive Party suffered one defeat after another. An entire generation of younger candidates vanished from the political stage. If they want to make a comeback, they will need extraordinary political skills.

Chen Shui-bian of course has never possessed any political skills other than expediency and trickery. Now, in his own selfish interest, he is no longer trumpeting generational change. He is not even supporting Yeh Yi-ching, who was always extremely loyal to him in the past.

Chen Shui-bian may be selfish, but as long as Chen Shui-bian stirs the pot, Democratic Progressive Party elites will find it hard to escape blame. This is the DPP's moment of truth. The Tainan County Commissioner's Election has put the Democratic Progressive Party on the horns of a dilemma. It may indulge in wishful thinking or self-deception. But its past abetting of Chen Shui-bian's conniving was politically and morally dubious, and also inflicted serious harm upon the Democratic Progressive Party, from which it will have difficulty recovering.

Tainan County has become a litmus test. The Democratic Progressive Party must stand by its own candidates and its own strategy. It must boldly disown Chen Shui-bian. Doing this may put Tainan County at risk. But it may help consolidate other counties and municipalities in which the Blue and Green camps are more evenly matched. More importantly, if Chen Shui-bian does make it into the Legislative Yuan, the Democratic Progressive Party must draw a clear line of distinction between itself and him. It must offer a bold new political platform befitting a major political party. Only then can it avoid becoming Chen Shui-bian's "shadow party."

中國時報 　2009.03.31
民進黨在台南縣的兩難困局
本報訊

馬政府施政狀況不佳，扁案負面效應告一段落，今年底的縣市長選舉，民進黨一直視為是谷底翻身的機會；但是，陳水扁陰影仍然揮之不去，這幾天傳出扁有意投身台南縣立委補選，單單想像此一訊息，就夠民進黨領導人夜半嚇出一身冷汗。

試想，當蔡英文帶領的團隊在競選造勢場合痛批馬政府執政，經濟不景氣、失業急速惡化時，全國焦點卻都是陳水扁台南縣選情，民進黨的勢還造得起來嗎？蘇貞昌參選台北縣所帶來的利基，還能維持嗎？

如果這個圖像令人怵目驚心，這可能還不是最糟的。假設陳水扁真的當選，進了立法院，不要說扁子弟兵眾多，扁就曾爆料，他至少拿出十億挹注民進黨候選人，「哪個派系沒欠我人情？」再加上，扁下台之後，民進黨派系惡鬥，天王們憂讒畏譏，黨內彌漫著一股「領導真空症候群」；一旦扁進入立院，以他之擅長權力操作，再加上民進黨立委對他的慣性服從，扁不無可能打破民進黨中央與立院黨團分立的傳統，仗著成為立院黨團老大，擁兵自重和黨中央對抗。

事實上，聲望已到谷底的陳水扁，迄今都還是民進黨的地下黨主席，比黨員選出的黨主席蔡英文更有實權，而整個年底縣市長的棋局也是照著扁的鋪排走。

例如，民進黨希望蘇貞昌角逐台北縣長，是希望他能穩住民進黨的基盤，帶動全黨的氣勢；但是，蘇貞昌自己則還有二○一二大位的考量，因此，為免得罪黨內基本教義派，蘇貞昌不太可能大動作和扁切割；而扁也一再表達善意，卻也同時牽制蘇貞昌，讓他不敢有大開大闔的動作。

再如台南縣，扁先表達支持陳唐山選台南縣長，事後卻又傳出可能支持葉宜津角逐縣長，扁則順理成章角逐葉宜津留下來的立委一職。如果民進黨因擔心扁攪局，波及葉宜津選情、被迫改支持陳唐山，則是形同黨中央硬生生改變規畫，不得不挑扁屬意的台南縣長人選，徹底的破壞民進黨裁培中生代布局。

如果民進黨中央堅持支持中壯代的葉宜津，則不論交不交換，或是葉宜津選前辭不辭立委，只要葉宜津當選縣長，留下來的立委一職，扁是選定了，如果扁當選，對民進黨而言，真是噩夢一場。

民進黨為何讓自己掉入這樣兩難的困局?

其實，扁對民進黨的傷害，並不是一、兩次的執政失敗而已。扁任總統時，確實有一套「長久執政」計畫，二○○五年縣市長選舉，以世代交替之名，扁欽點了羅文嘉、林佳龍等逐逐百里侯，更有意扶植陳其邁參選高雄市長，但是扁案陸續爆發，民進黨接連幾次大敗，好不容易裁培出來的中壯世代，幾乎全跟著落馬，一整個世代就此沒落，他們要再起來，都必須有非凡的戰功不可。

當然，扁向來只有權宜與權謀，現在為了自己的利益，不要說不會再唱世代交替的高調，連過去一向對他極為效忠的葉宜津，他也未必要支持。

扁可以自私自利，但是任扁如此翻雲覆雨，民進黨菁英難辭其咎。現在可以說是民進黨的「The Moment of Truth」（說真話的關鍵時刻），看到民進黨在台南縣長選舉的兩難處境，再如何鄉愿或自我欺騙，也應該清楚，過去縱容陳水扁，不但是「同流合污」的政治道德問題而已，也對民進黨發展造成難以復原的傷害。

台南縣已成指標，唯今之計，民進黨更要堅持既定的人選及步調；但是同時大力與扁切割，如此作法，也許危及台南縣，但可穩住其他藍綠比例均衡的縣市。更重要的，萬一扁將來真的進了立法院，民進黨不僅要義正嚴詞的和他畫清界線，也要提出大格局的政黨方針，才不會淪為扁的「影子政黨」。