Tsai Ing-wen, Chen Shui-bian, Who is "Too Moderate?"

Tsai Ing-wen, Chen Shui-bian, Who is "Too Moderate?"
United Daily News editorial (Taipei, Taiwan, ROC)
A Translation
March 10, 2009

While holding forth at the detention center, Chen Shui-bian said he hoped that "nativist" citizens' groups would organize a "Taiwan Independence Party." He said his representative would convey his message to Tsai Ing-wen upon meeting her tomorrow.

The most interesting part of Chen's remark was his reference to "conveying his message to Tsai Ing-wen." It was flagrant intimidation and blackmail. No wonder once the news broke, Democratic Progressive Party legislators Immediately proposed the passage of a Central Standing Committee resolution calling for Tsai Ing-wen to visit the detention center in Tucheng to mollify Chen Shui-bian.

Chen Shui-bian's take on the current situation is that he is being detained because the "DPP is not forceful enough," because "Tsai Ing-wen is too moderate," and because she wants to "disassociate herself from me." His is now threatening to organize a "Taiwan Independence Party" in order to extort concessions from Tsai Ing-wen. His implication is that if Tsai Ing-wen continues to be "too moderate," then no one can blame him for being "immoderate" when he tears the Democratic Progressive Party apart.

Actually the DPP's current dilemma is not the result of Tsai Ing-wen being "too moderate" toward the KMT or the court system. It is the result of Tsai Ing-wen being "too moderate" toward Chen Shui-bian, from day one.

When Tsai Ing-wen was elected party chairman last May, she promised to "lead the Democratic Progressive Party out of the Chen Shui-bian era." The Democratic Progressive Party had just lost the presidential election. The Green Camp was still taking a wait and see approach regarding Chen Shui-bian. Tsai Ing-wen, being "too moderate," failed to strike when the iron was hot. Instead she allowed Chen Shui-bian to nibble away at the party bit by bit, until it was in shreds. Tsai Ing-wen created a monster, Chen Shui-bian. He has consolidated substantial support from Deep Green Taiwan independence extremists. He now holds this bargaining chip. He may not be able to do much good. But he can do a great deal of harm. That is why Chen Shui-bian can openly intimidate and blackmail Tsai Ing-wen.

This is hardly the full extent of Chen Shui-bian's appetite. He has repeatedly said that if the Democratic Progressive Party has no leaders, he will lead it. For him, Tsai Ing-wen doesn't even exist. Tsai Ing-wen and the DPP Central Committee have not responded aggressively. Tsai Ing-wen has not even visited him in prison. Chen Shui-bian has threatened to "organize a Taiwan Independence Party." He is essentially challenging Tsai to a showdown.

Taiwan independence has long been a tail which wags the DPP dog. The tail has long been that part of the dog which expresses the dog's emotions most clearly. If the tail gets chopped off, the dog may well bleed to death. The Democratic Progressive Party is unable to make a clean break with Chen Shui-bian because the tail is joined to the dog. Because Tsai Ing-wen was "too moderate," Chen Shui-bian is now an integral part of this tail. Taiwan independence is now synonymous with Chen Shui-bian, and Chen Shui-bian is now synonymous with Taiwan independence. The DPP is now unable to break with Chen Shui-bian.

Chen Shui-bian's threat to organize a new political party may not be a bluff. It may be an inevitable consequence of the Chen Shui-bian Corruption Case. Chen Shui-bian will probably be found guilty in the first instance. Tsai Ing-wen and the DPP Central Committee will be required by the party's code of discipline to expell him from the party. Chen Shui-bian knows he will be expelled from the Democratic Progressive Party, and therefore needs a "Taiwan Independence Party" for political leverage. When the time comes, Chen Shui-bian will probably argue that the Democratic Progressive Party drew first blood, so he can hardly be blamed for the consequences.

Chen Shui-bian's "Taiwan Independence Party" is likely to have the same relationship to Tsai's Ing-wen's DPP, that Lee Teng-hui's Taiwan Solidarity Union had to Chen Shui-bian's DPP. Lee Teng-hui used Taiwan independence to hold Chen Shui-bian hostage for eight years. Chen Shui-bian may well use Taiwan independence to hold Tsai Ing-wen hostage as well. If he does, can the DPP survive? Chen Shui-bian must acquire even greater control of the Taiwan independence movement than Lee Teng-hui. Chen Shui-bian's "Taiwan Independence Party" will never be able to establish Taiwan independence. But it will probably be more than enough to allow the tail to wag the dog.

DPP reformers are confronted with a dangerous situation. They must once again consider whether to remain a "Taiwan Independence Party." They must consider two issues. One. Taiwan independence is now synonymous with Chen Shui-bian, and Chen Shui-bian is synonymous with Taiwan independence. It is too late to distance the DPP from Ah-Bian without simultaneously distancing it from Taiwan independence. Two. Taiwan independence will remain synonymouse with Chen Shui-bian, and Chen Shui-bian will remain synonymous with Taiwan independence. If this is what has become of the Taiwan independence movement, how can it possibly survive? So what if Su Tseng-chang is elected Taipei County Magistrate? Does that mean Taiwan independence will get a new lease on life?

Chen Shui-bian's attitude toward the Democratic Progressive Party has never been "moderate." How ironic that the DPP is currently being held hostage by "Betrayer to Taiwan independence" Chen Shui-bian. How ironic that Tsai Ing-wen, by being "too moderate," allowed Chen Shui-bian to become a Frankenstein Monster. Tsai Ing-wen knows how to be "moderate," moderate to a fault. She will remain "moderate" right up to the moment Chen Shui-bian drags the DPP down with him, into oblivion.

陳水扁與蔡英文，誰比誰「太溫和」？
【聯合報╱社論】
2009.03.10 04:03 am

陳水扁在看守所著人放話稱，他希望本土社團能發動組建「台灣獨立黨」；並要傳話者在明天見蔡英文時轉知這個訊息，要蔡與其他人討論一下。

這個動作的最微妙處在「轉知蔡英文」。這是對蔡英文的公然恐嚇與勒索。難怪，消息傳出，立即有民進黨立委稱，將在中常會提案，由中常會決議，要蔡英文到土城探監，以示安撫。

陳水扁對當前處境的解讀是：由於「民進黨沒有力」、「蔡英文太溫和」、「又要與我切割」，所以造成他被羈押。如今，他以組「台獨黨」來要脅蔡英文；弦外之音就是，蔡英文倘若仍是「太溫和」，就莫怪他「不溫和」，要撕裂民進黨了。

其實，民進黨形成今日僵局，恐非因為蔡英文（對國民黨或司法當局）太溫和；反而是因蔡英文自始至終對陳水扁「太溫和」所致。

蔡英文在去年五月當選黨主席，政治號召是「帶領民進黨開創一個沒有陳水扁的時代」。當時，民進黨大選初敗，綠營對如何處置陳水扁尚在觀望階段，蔡英文因 「太溫和」，未能即時建立黨內對陳水扁的是非評價，遂使陳水扁老蠶吃桑葉般地將民進黨啃噬得一片狼藉。如今，蔡英文養虎貽患，陳水扁已是尾大不掉，他既相 當程度地鞏固了深綠極獨這一塊，掌握了成事不足敗事有餘的籌碼，陳水扁於是開口恐嚇勒索蔡英文。

陳水扁原本的胃口尚不僅此。他幾次表示，如果民進黨沒人領導（不把蔡英文看在眼裡），他願領導。不過，蔡英文的黨中央並未給予積極回應，蔡英文甚至迄未探監。現在，陳水扁著人將「另組台獨黨」傳話給蔡英文，已形同與蔡攤牌。

台獨與民進黨的關係，始終是「尾巴搖狗」。這條尾巴是民進黨情緒最高、表情最生動的部位；且若切斷尾巴，整隻狗也可能流血致死，活不成；演變至今，遂成尾 巴搖狗的局面。民進黨切不斷與陳水扁的關係，其實是因切不斷這條血肉相連的尾巴。現在，由於蔡英文的「太溫和」，使陳水扁鑽進這條尾巴裡，台獨就是阿扁， 阿扁就是台獨，民進黨也就無論如何切不斷阿扁了。

陳水扁揚言組黨，未必是虛言恫嚇，而恐是扁案後續發展的必然結果。陳水扁一審被判有罪的可能極大，而蔡英文的黨中央即必須執行一審有罪除名的黨紀。陳水扁既知必將被民進黨除名，他也就必須以「台獨黨」為政治槓桿。屆時，陳水扁大可說：民進黨既不仁，莫怪我不義。

若回顧李登輝的台聯與民進黨的關係，也許即可預見未來陳水扁的「台獨黨」與民進黨的關係。以陳水扁的刁蠻，李登輝尚可用台獨挾持他八年；現在若換成陳水扁 用台獨來挾持蔡英文，民進黨豈有活命？陳水扁對台獨的掌握，必然優於李登輝。陳水扁的「台獨黨」一定搞不成台獨，但若只是要做那一條「搖狗的尾巴」，應是 綽綽有餘。

民進黨內改革派面對此一凶險情境，似應再次思考究竟要不要繼續做一個「台獨黨」？必要的思考有二：一、就當前言，台獨等於阿扁，阿扁等於台獨，已不可能切 扁不切獨。二、就未來看，台獨等於阿扁，阿扁等於台獨，這樣的台獨如何走得下去？難道倘若蘇貞昌當選台北縣長，就等於台獨復活？

陳水扁對民進黨始終「不溫和」，而民進黨今日竟遭被稱作「台獨罪人」的陳水扁用「台獨」挾持，實在是莫大諷刺。而蔡英文既因「太溫和」而使陳水扁這隻台獨妖怪成形，恐怕也只會繼續「溫和」下去，直到陳水扁將民進黨凌遲至無以超生。