May 17: A Success If Concluded on May 18

May 17: A Success If Concluded on May 18
China Times editorial (Taipei, Taiwan, ROC)
A Translation
May 18, 2009

The Ma/Liu government has been in office for one year. On May 17 the DPP launched a "Denounce Ma, Defend Taiwan" protest march. Green Camp supporters have felt frustrated for the past year. They eagerly took to the streets despite the hot sun. Meanwhile, the Cross-Strait Forum opened on the Mainland. Former Democratic Progressive Party Chairman Hsu Hsin-liang, who rejoined the DPP during last year's presidential election, was also in attendance. He said that the Democratic Progressive Party could denounce Ma if it wanted, but "Opposing China" was pointless. President Ma Ying-jeou, target of the denunciations, chose to go south to the Hsingchu Technology Park. He said he understood the DPP's denunciations. He hoped the march could end peacefully. The low profile, moderate demeanor of the ruling KMT contrasted sharply with the high profile, combative demeanor of the opposition DPP.

The Taipei Police Department estimated fewer than 80,000 protestors. The Democratic Progressive Party claimed up to 600,000 people. It was obviously pleased with its mobilization. Leave aside whether 600,000 or 80,000 protestors attended. The Democratic Progressive Party can not evade the fact that the approval rating of Ma Ying-jeou, the target of their denunciations, has already rebounded from its low during last year's global financial tsunami. It now stands at over 55%. On the other hand, the latest TVBS poll puts DPP chairperson Tsai Ing-wen's approval ratings at a new low of 30%.

Core support for the Democratic Progressive Party remains stuck between 30 to 45%. It has not increased in over two decades. Eight years of Chen Shui-bian administration corruption may even have caused it to shrink. The Democratic Progressive Party is pleased with itself because Ketagelan Road is packed full of people. But let's not forget that: First, this crowd was bussed in from southern and central Taiwan. Secondly, this crowd represents the hard core of the Democratic Progressive Party's shrinking support. Thirdly, and most importantly, this crowd consists of Democratic Progressive Party True Believers. They cannot help the Democratic Progressive Party return to power.

The Democratic Progressive Party denounced the Ma administration for "selling out Taiwan." How exactly is Ma supposed to have sold Taiwan out? Director of Health Yeh Chin-chuan is in Geneva preparing to attend the WHO Conference. The Democratic Progressive Party complained that the official WHA website shows Taiwan as a province of China. Yeh Chin-chuan angrily shot back, "That happened in 2005. That was the handiwork of the incompetent Chen Shui-bian administration. Don't blame that on me!" Increasing the Republic of China's breathing room should transcend Blue and Green. It should be something upon which both camps agree. We have many different ways to go about it. The results may also be very different. The Republic of China has found a way to make contact with the international community. The only problem is the Democratic Progressive Party is unwilling to face up to it. They left a mess. Now the Ma administration must clean it up.

The Democratic Progressive Party has its own rationale vis a vis Beijing. When President Chen Shui-bian ran for president, he touted his "New Centrist Path." Unfortunately, despite eight years in power, Taiwan independence forces have left the party in a mess. Even though it is now in the opposition, it remains bound hand and foot. Former Democratic Progressive Party Chairman Hsu Hsin-liang denounced Ma Ying-jeou but also has dealings with the Mainland. Hsu has proposed "Boldly Going West." Some Democratic Progressive Party members have underground channels to Beijing, Shanghai, or Xiamen, But officially they must denounce deals with the mainland as "selling out Taiwan." Former Premier Frank Hsieh was also former Mayor of Kaohsiung. He had a chance to visit the mainland. But Chen Shui-bian stopped him dead in his tracks. On the eve of the May 17 "Denounce Ma" protest march, Kaohsiung Mayor Chen Chu publicly confirmed that she would visit Beijing on May 21. This time, she will not be so unlucky as to encounter a president and party chairman who will forbid her from making the trip.

The two sides have carried on normal exchanges for years. Political and ideological interference aside, neither the Blue nor Green camps have "sold out Taiwan." This past year, the Ma administration has relaxed cross-Strait policy. But in fact, the ruling Democratic Progressive Party was unable to interrupt cross-strait exchanges during its eight years in office. The more tightly the government controled official exchanges, the closer non-governmental exchanges became. Increased cross-Strait relations are an irreversible trend. How can fanatical Democratic Progressive Party protests prevent them? Put bluntly, even pro-Taiwan independence businesses need the mainland market.

The Democratic Progressive Party may be satisfied with its 30% share of public support. But those in power cannot ignore the increasing rigid 30% Green Camp core support. We conducted a poll on the first anniversary of the Ma administration. Satisfaction with the Ma administration on cross-Strait policy and the outcome of recent consultations has risen significantly. It now exceeds 50%. Have these initiatives have put the sovereignty of the Republic of China at risk? The number that thinks so has also significantly increased. It now stands at 30%. The DPP cannot return to power based on the support of 30% of the electorate. But the 30% of the electorate denouncing Ma and opposing Beijing can polarize society. That may be why the Ma/Liu government's response to the May 17 protest march was so low keyed and moderate.

Taiwan has been politically liberalized for over 20 years. Social polarization reached its zenith under the Chen Shui-bian administration's eight years in office. The wounds inflicted on society by such divisions obviously cannot be healed overnight. As Premier Liu Chao-hsuan said, "Having different opinions is not a bad thing. Only this can force the government to watch its every step." Social consensus is also established step-by-step. The May 17 protest march should be seen as normal for a democracy. The success of May 17 should not measured by its numbers. It should be measured by whether it ends peacefully on May 18. Only such a result can rebuild public confidence in the Democratic Progressive Party.

中時電子報 新聞
中國時報 　2009.05.18
社論－五一八圓滿散場 五一七才算成功
本報訊

馬劉政府就職周年前夕，民進黨發動五一七嗆馬保台大遊行，鬱卒了一年的綠營民眾，頂著酷熱的驕陽，情緒興奮地重回街頭；同一時間，海峽論壇在對岸盛大開幕，去年總統大選才重回民進黨的前主席許信良自在與會，淡淡地建議民進黨：嗆馬可以，反中不必！被嗆的主角馬英九總統，選擇南下竹科，他對民進黨嗆馬表示理解，希望遊行順利落幕。低調溫和的執政者，與高調抗議的反對黨，恰成強烈對比。

儘管北市警方估計嗆馬民眾不到八萬人，民進黨宣稱高達六十萬人，對這場活動的動員，顯然是滿意的。但不論是八萬人或六十萬人，民進黨不能迴避的事實是：他們要嗆的馬英九，民意支持度和施政滿意度，已經從去年全球金融海嘯的低點攀升到五成五以上；至於民進黨主席蔡英文的滿意度，根據ＴＶＢＳ的最新民調，卻持續滑落到新低，只有百分之卅。

百分之卅到四十五，差不多就是民進黨創黨以來的基本盤，廿多年來沒什麼長進，經過八年執政，因為扁政府的貪腐，甚至還有萎縮的趨勢。當民進黨志得意滿於凱道擠滿人潮時，不要忘了：第一，這些群眾是公職一車一車從中南部載運上來的；第二，這些群眾只是民進黨萎縮中的基本盤；第三，也是最重要的，這群長久以來被民進黨以台灣主權圖騰所迷幻的群眾，沒有幫民進黨拓展重回執政的能量。

民進黨嗆馬政府賣台，到底賣了什麼？衛生署長葉金川正在日內瓦，準備出席世衛大會，民進黨痛批世衛大會官網上，台灣還是中國的一省，葉金川沒好氣地直接嗆回去：「那是二○○五年，扁政府無能的傑作，別賴在我頭上！」打開台灣的國際空間，不分藍綠，有志一同，但作法差很多，結果同樣差很多。台灣找得到國際社會的出口，只是民進黨不肯正視而已，至於他們搞出的爛攤子，只得後繼者收拾。

民進黨對中國不是沒有一套論述的邏輯，陳水扁競選總統「新中間路線」標舉得多麼高，偏偏八年執政，被獨派搞得七葷八素，到在野都還擺脫不了。嗆馬同時登陸的民進黨前主席許信良，早有大膽西進的主張，部分民進黨人即使私下同樣絡繹於北京、上海、或廈門，嘴上還是非得掛著登陸即賣台的扣紅言論。前行政院長謝長廷在高雄市長任內，本來有機會訪問大陸，被陳水扁硬生生擋了下來；就在五一七嗆馬前夕，高雄市長陳菊公開證實，五二一她也要赴北京，這一回，她不會再倒楣地碰上一位總統兼黨主席，不准她出訪。

兩岸正常交流多年，若非政治因素或意識形態的干擾，不論藍的、綠的，都構不成賣台，不要說馬政府這一年來兩岸政策鬆綁，事實上，民進黨八年執政兩岸亦無法中斷交流，官方管制再緊，民間交流卻愈密，兩岸關係不可逆的發展趨勢，豈是民進黨狂熱抗議能阻擋的？說穿了，即使是獨派企業，也需要大陸市場。

值得注意的是，民進黨可以滿足於已萎縮的百分之卅基本盤，執政者卻不能忽略可能愈趨僵化的百分之卅綠盤勢，根據本報最近一系列馬政府執政周年民調顯示，滿意於馬政府兩岸政策與協商成果者，比例明顯升高，都達到百分之五十以上；但是，問到這些舉措有沒有傷害台灣主權之虞？認為有傷害之虞比例同樣大幅升高，達到三成。民進黨靠不了三成熱情群眾的支持，重返執政；但三成僵硬嗆馬反中群眾，卻可能成為激化社會對立的一股力量，馬劉政府面對五一七遊行的低調溫和，與此應該也有關係。

台灣政治開放廿多年，社會激化對立以扁政府八年為最，政黨再輪替後，這樣的社會對立和分裂傷痕，顯然不是一時半刻能化解的，誠如行政院長劉兆玄所言，「有不同意見不是壞事，這才能讓政府步步為營。」社會共識的建立，也得步步為營，五一七遊行靜坐可以視為民主常態，重要的是：五一七是否成功不在人數，而在五一八好好散場，如此才能重建民眾對民進黨做為負責任政黨的信心。