Peace Dividend, Capital Convergence

Peace Dividend, Capital Convergence
United Daily News editorial (Taipei, Taiwan, ROC)
A Translation
May 12, 2009

Huge Rise! Swift Rise! Wild Rise! Insane Rise! Reckless Rise! The Fourth Chiang/Chen Meeting reached four agreements and one consensus. Increasing stock market momentum then inspired the above headlines.

We have enjoyed an eight-day winning streak. This wave of stock market rises is a response to a changed reality. It also reflects the expectations of society. The phenomenon can be summed up as "peace dividend, capital convergence."

By "response to a changed reality," we mean that investors can see the practical results of the institutionalization of cross-Strait trade and economic interaction. By "expectations of society," we mean that the practical achievements may be less than perfect. But investor psychology has idealized its potential.

In fact, a huge gap remains between real word achievements and society's expectations, Investors refer to this wave of market rises as "market psychology." That means psychological factors have overridden actual market conditions. So the next question is, how can the energy behind this capital be directed into specific investments such as trade? Otherwise, if we remain stuck in speculation, the stock market will remain mere "market psychology." A stock market bubble can pop in the blink of an eye.

The atmosphere of a "peace dividend" has formed. But we talk about dividends, we should first establish what we mean by peace. Only then can we ensure that any dividend does not come to nothing. Peace should mean that cross-Strait relations will be conducted on the basis of the general welfare and rule by the people. It should eschew force and intrigue. This will avoid the dilemma of "who will gobble up whom." It should be a mutually beneficial "What's good for you is good for me, what's good for me is good for you" win/win scenario.

Mainland Affairs Council Chairwoman Lai Shin-yuan said that for cross-Strait exchanges, rhythm is more important than tempo. Actually, for cross-Strait exchanges, melody is even more important than rhythm or tempo. As long as the melody is "peaceful development / win-win," and as long as we keep the public welfare and the rule of the people in mind, the rhythm and tempo will come naturally. Conversely, if we deviate from the theme of "peaceful development/ win-win," the rhythm and tempo are sure to lose synch, resulting in mere noise. In other words, without peace as the melody, any expectation of a dividend will be in vain.

The guiding theme of cross-Strait relations is the "peace dividend." At the operational level it is the "convergence of three forms of capital." The convergence of the three forms of capital creates a virtuous circle. The reality and imagined potential of mainland capital has restored the vitality and power of Taiwan capital. If Taiwan capital and mainland capital are invested in production, they will attract foreign capital. Three forms of capital will then converge. Two conditions are essential. First, the capital must not be "hot money." It must be invested in production, not merely be used to speculate. Second, foreign capital must pass certain benchmark tests. Inflows of foreign capital will prove that Taiwan's economy is showing genuine improvement. Of course this includes Taiwan's ability to successfully sign FTA with other countries.

Overall improvements and upgrades in cross-Strait relations and economic and trade exchanges should create a positive market trend. But some individuals are still opposed, still skeptical, still uneasy. That is because they lack confidence and harbor deep suspicions regarding cross-Strait "peaceful development / win-win." They worry, won't Taiwan will be gobbled up by the mainland? Won't Taiwan become feedstock for Beijing's "procurement policy?"

Such concerns are understandable. But there is no need for excessive pessimism. Beijing has chosen a cross-Strait policy of peaceful development over force. That means it must uphold the general welfare and the rule of the people. The framework for the peaceful development of cross-strait relations must maintain the dignity and defend the interests of the public on Taiwan. Beijing will of course express goodwill by allowing mainland tourists to come to Taiwan to spend money. It is unlikely to imagine that it can "buy" Taiwan by means of mainland capital. In fact Taiwan cannot be be supported by mainland capital alone. Therefore Beijing's policies must hew to the principle of "peaceful development / win-win." They must maintain the dignity of the public on Taiwan. The public on Taiwan must feel that a "peaceful development / win-win" cross-strait policy is trustworthy and worth pursuing.

When improving cross-Strait relations, peace is more important than money. Without genuine peace, any capital will be at political risk. Conversely, the establishment of a theme of "peaceful development / win-win" will surely honor peace, the rule of the people, and the public welfare. With peace as the melody, the rhythm and tempo will follow in due course.

和平紅利 三資匯流
【聯合報╱社論】
2009.05.12 03:28 am

大漲、急漲、暴漲、狂漲、飆漲。江陳會完成四大協議及一項共識，股市上漲的氣勢，令媒體的標題詞窮。

連漲八天，看回不回。這波股市漲勢，反應了現實的變化，也反映了社會心理的期待，可用八個字來形容，那就是：和平紅利，三資匯流。

所謂反應現實的變化，是指投資人看到了兩岸經貿互動法制化的具體成果；所謂反映社會心理的期待，則是指現實成就未必完足，但投資人的心理想像卻加以放大與美化。

其實，現實成就與社會心理期待之間，仍有極大的落差。市場人士將這波漲勢稱作「資金行情」，即是意謂心理因素高過真實的市場條件。今後的問題是：必須將這種「資金」的能量，落實在具體實際的投資生產等經貿成就上。否則，倘若只是停留在炒炒股票的「資金行情」，虛浮的股市表現，轉眼就能化為泡沫。

眼前確已出現「和平紅利」的氛圍。因而，首先要確立「和平」的內涵，「紅利」始不致落空。所謂「和平」，應是意味著兩岸關係的發展將以民生及民主為準則，而遠離武力及權謀。這將不再是「誰吃掉誰」的問題，而是一種「我為你好／你為我好」的追求，及互惠雙贏的信念。

陸委會主委賴幸媛曾說，兩岸交流，節奏比速度重要。其實，兩岸交流，旋律比節奏及速度都重要。若能維持「和平雙贏」的主旋律，以民生及民主為依歸，則自然會相應出現賞心悅耳的節奏及速度；反之，倘若偏離了「和平雙贏」的主旋律，即必將出現節奏失衡、速度失拍，以致荒腔走板的噪音。也就是說，「和平」的主旋律若走調，「紅利」亦必落空。

「和平紅利」是對兩岸大氛圍的主題定調，在運作層次則是「三資匯流」。對三資匯流，可有一個良性循環的憧憬，亦即：陸資已經發動的事實及將要發動的想像，可使台資恢復及增加活力與動力；台資及陸資若能落實在投資生產層次，又將吸引外資參與，於是三資匯流的景觀即可出現。其中有兩個關鍵：一、「資金」不能只是「熱錢」，必須引導落實在投資生產，而不可只是炒股炒樓。二、應以外資為測試成就的標尺，外資參與，始能顯示台灣經濟體質的真正改善；當然亦包括台灣能順利與他國簽訂ＦＴＡ。

兩岸總體關係的改善與經貿交流的提升，應是可以期待及祝福的大趨勢。但若有人仍然反對，仍然質疑，或仍然不放心；那是因為對於兩岸「和平雙贏」的主旋律沒有信心而深懷疑懼。例如：台灣會不會被大陸吃掉？台灣會不會成為北京「採購政策」下的被餵養物？

這樣的擔心是可以理解的，卻亦不必過度悲觀。北京既然決定在兩岸政策上以「和平」取代「武力」，即不能偏離民生與民主的準則；而應當全力維持一個能使台灣人民感到有尊嚴及有利益的「兩岸關係和平發展框架」。在這樣的政策原則下，就財經面而言，北京固然會以採購及陸客來台等表達善意，卻不至於妄想用陸資來「包養」台灣，而事實上台灣亦不是僅憑陸資所能養得起的。因而，北京的政策，應當是把持「和平雙贏」的最高原則，讓台灣能夠有尊嚴地自主發展；只要使台灣人民相信，此種「和平雙贏」的兩岸關係是值得信任及值得追求的即可。

兩岸關係的改善，「和平比資金重要」。倘若對「和平」沒有真正的信仰，「資金」反會成為政治風險。反之，若能建立「和平雙贏」的主旋律，而和平必然以民生及民主為依歸，則和平的主調既定，節奏及速度也都有了可資依憑的準據！