ECFA: A Variable in the Five Cities Election

ECFA: A Variable in the Five Cities Election
United Daily News editorial (Taipei, Taiwan, ROC)
A Translation
March 9, 2010

The Spring Festival is over. Five cities on Taiwan are caught up in election fever. The cross-Strait Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement (ECFA) is about to be signed with a great deal of fanfare.

First Hu Jintao told Taiwan businessmen in Fujian that "We will give full consideration to our Taiwan compatriots, especially the interests of Taiwan farmers. This is a good thing that should be done well." Then Wen Jiabao spoke of "profit-sharing." He said ECFA would be signed this year. On the Taipei side, President Ma Ying-jeou publicly announced that he hoped ECFA could be signed in May or June of this year. The atmosphere was very different from what it was just before Chinese New Year.

Before the Spring Festival, President Ma said "There is no timetable for the signing of ECFA." SEF chairman Chiang Pin-kung said that ECFA consultation has entered "its most difficult stage." Rumors flew. Some said talks were stalled because Beijing wanted to ship agricultural products to Taiwan. Some said talks were stalled because of disagreements over WTO provisions. But now a timetable has emerged. ECFA will be signed in May or June of this year. Hu Jintao also gave assurances that the interests of Taiwan farmers would be protected. Wen Jiabao spoke of "profit sharing." This all suggests that the most difficult stage is already behind us.

The Five Cities Elections are a catalyst that has accelerated talks over ECFA. The Five Cities Elections will be held this year. The Presidential Election will be held next year. If a major cross-Straits issue such as ECFA remains unresolved during election season, the situation is likely to get out of control. President Ma hopes to sign ECFA in May or June. Clearly he wants to have it signed before the Five Cities Election Primaries. He wants to prevent ECFA from becoming an intractable election issue. Beijing naturally shares such concerns.

Such political calculations are understandable. But the impact of ECFA on the political situation is not limited to the Five Cities Elections. It will have a major impact on cross-Strait relations over the mid term and long term. Of course it will also have medium and long term impacts on the political situation on Taiwan. The point is not whether ECFA can be signed before the Five Cities Election. The point is whether the substance of the agreement is be acceptable to the public on Taiwan. Quite the contrary. If one hurriedly signs ECFA, but the substance of the agreement is unacceptable to the public on Taiwan, rushing to sign ECFA would be an unwise move that merely offends public sensitivities.

ECFA's linkage with the elections shows that democratic politics and public opinion on Taiwan have become constraints on cross-Strait relations. If one wants cross-Strait relations to "develop peacefully," Taipei must respond to public opinion. So must Beijing. Take ECFA. Hu Jintao's counterpart during consultations is not just the Ma administration, or even the DPP. It includes the public on Taiwan. They must be convinced of Beijing's sincerity and goodwill.

With ECFA, Hu Jintao established the principle of "good things should be done well." State Council Office for Taiwan Affairs Director Wang Yi reaffirmed this principle. He said "good things should be done well" means "doing the right things, and doing things right." This can be understood two ways. First, so-called "good things" means that ECFA should be considered a "good thing" because it is conducive to the peaceful development of cross-strait relations. But even more importantly it must be perceived as a "good thing" by the public on Taiwan. Secondly, so-called being "done well" should include communicating with the public before and during the signing. This will prevent a good thing from receiving bad reviews. For Beijing, this is something that must not be ignored.

For the Ma administration, this is an especially important test. After all, the Five Cities Elections and the Presidential Election have a bearing on the survival of the KMT regime. Hao Lung-ping has challenged Su Tseng-chang to a debate over ECFA. Clearly ECFA cannot help but become an election issue. For the KMT, failure to sign ECFA before the Five Cities Elections means that campaign debates will focus on whether or not to sign ECFA. But if ECFA is signed before the Five Cities Elections, campaign debates will be over "Was the substance of the agreement any good?" and "Did Beijing share enough of the profits?" In other words, the KMT will be forced to face the music either way.

The progress of ECFA has been accelerated by the Five Cities Elections. For the Ma administration, this represents both a crisis and an opportunity. If it can sell the public on the merits of the agreement, it will constitute an opportunity for the Ma adminstration. If, on the other hand, a powerful political controversy ensues, the Ma adminstration will find itself in an even worse crisis. Therefore, whether ECFA is a "good thing" and whether it can be "done well" is something the Ma administration cannot take lightly. After all, the Ma administration has a record of "doing good things badly."

ECFA affects Beijing. For the first time, the quality of Beijing's decision-making processes will directly impact elections on Taiwan. Whether this development is a "good thing" merits close observation by both sides.

好事辦好：ECFA是五都選舉的變數
【聯合報╱社論】
2010.03.09 03:16 am

春節過後，隨著台灣五都選舉進入疾風驟雨，兩岸經協（ＥＣＦＡ）的議簽也顯現密鑼緊鼓。

胡錦濤先在福建對台商說，「會充分考慮台灣同胞，特別是台灣農民弟兄的利益，要把這件好事辦好」，接著溫家寶即提出「讓利說」，並說ＥＣＦＡ將在今年簽署；台灣方面，馬英九總統更公開表示，希望ＥＣＦＡ能在今年五、六月簽訂。這種氛圍，已與春節前大相逕庭。

春節前，曾聽馬總統說，簽訂ＥＣＦＡ「沒有時間表」，海基會董事長江丙坤則稱，ＥＣＦＡ的協商已經進入「最艱辛的階段」；一時謠諑紛紛，有人說卡在北京爭取農產品輸台，有人說卡在與ＷＴＯ的規範牴觸。現在，「時間表」出來了（今年？五、六月？），胡錦濤也對「台灣農民弟兄的利益」作出保證，溫家寶又宣示「讓利」，在在顯示「最艱辛的階段」似乎已經度過。

五都選舉是ＥＣＦＡ加速的催化劑。台灣今年舉行五都選舉，明年進入總統大選，倘若兩岸之間存有ＥＣＦＡ這類不確定的重大議題，情勢極可能失控。馬總統希望在五、六月簽訂ＥＣＦＡ，顯然是希望能趕在五都選舉政黨提名之際完成簽署，以免ＥＣＦＡ一旦成為選戰議題，即不易收拾。北京方面當然同樣有此顧慮。

此種政治計算，雖可理解；但ＥＣＦＡ對台灣政局的影響，其實絕不只是影響一次五都選舉而已，而是將對中長期的兩岸關係皆有重大影響，因而也當然對中長期的台灣政局有長遠影響。倘能作如是觀，則是否搶在五都選舉前簽署ＥＣＦＡ絕非重點，重點仍在協議的內容能否說服台灣的主流民意；反過來說，如果只是趕簽ＥＣＦＡ，但協議內容不能說服民意，則趕簽恐怕反而將成為觸怒人民的不智動作。

從ＥＣＦＡ與選舉掛勾，可見台灣的民主政治與民意反映，已成為兩岸關係的制約因素。若欲兩岸關係「和平發展」，非但台灣的主政者必須回應台灣的民意，大陸的主政者亦知必須爭取台灣的民心。以ＥＣＦＡ為例，胡錦濤政權所面對的「協商」對象，其實不只是馬政府，也不只是民進黨，而是必須設法讓台灣主流民意能夠感知北京的誠心與善意。

胡錦濤對ＥＣＦＡ樹立了「好事辦好」的原則，國台辦主任王毅亦再申此論。所謂「好事辦好」，就是Do the right thing，and do things right。這可作兩方面說：一、所謂「好事」，是指ＥＣＦＡ應當被認為是對兩岸關係和平發展有利的「好事」，當然更重要的是要被台灣主流民意視為「好事」；二、所謂「辦好」，其中有一重要事項，應當是指簽署前、簽署中、簽署後的社會溝通必須「辦好」，以免落得「好事惡評」。這對於北京當局來說，皆是一個不可小覷的考驗。

對於馬政府而言，這尤其是重大考驗；畢竟，五都選舉與總統大選，皆與國民黨政權能否存續攸關。郝龍斌已向蘇貞昌挑戰辯論ＥＣＦＡ，可見ＥＣＦＡ不免成為選舉議題。就國民黨言，五都選舉前若未簽成ＥＣＦＡ，爭議將集中在「要不要簽」；但若在五都選舉前即已簽成，爭議將落在「簽的內容好不好」、「北京讓利夠不夠」。也就是說，國民黨橫豎都須面對這個議題。

ＥＣＦＡ的進度受到五都選舉的催迫，對馬政府而言，是危機也是轉機。倘若能簽成讓台灣主流民意認同的協議，這當然是馬政府的轉機；但若反而引發強烈的政治爭議，則對馬政府的困境就將是雪上加霜的危機。因而，ＥＣＦＡ究竟是否「好事」，以及究竟能否「辦好」，馬政府皆不可掉以輕心；畢竟，馬政府常有「好事辦砸」的紀錄。

由於ＥＣＦＡ牽動了北京政權，這可說也是首次北京政府的決策品質與台灣的選舉發生直接的連動關係；此事未來的發展，是否「好事」，能否「辦好」，皆是值得密切觀察的兩岸焦點。